aucu 3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Gold isn't going up. The dollar (and a lot of other currencies) is going down. Every commodity you can name is rocketing upward right now.Yes the "dollar bubble" is deflating, can it pop? Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yes the "dollar bubble" is deflating, can it pop?It seems poised for unavoidable catastrophe. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 POG still holding above $1500, been a week now, getting used to these levels.Waiting on news from the FED Link to post Share on other sites
ahosang 0 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Fed news was fairly non-committal. So trends continue upwards. Or as mtdesmoines said, the dollar slides downwards... Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 http://money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx...53-9e8faac4ae07Gold, silver soar on Fed commentaryBy Alix Steel, TheStreet Updated at 4:10 p.m. ET Gold settled at a new record and silver prices rallied Wednesday as the Federal Reserve confirmed that it would maintain an easy money policy for the medium term. Gold for June delivery settled up $12.30 to $1,517.10 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold prices stayed in a tight range, trading between $1,517.10 and $1,503.30 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.1% to $73.66. Silver prices bounced back from Tuesday’s 4% sell-off, adding 90 cents to settle at $45.95 an ounce. Both metals were climbing even higher in after-hours trading. Gold was up $21 while silver was up nearly $2.50. The spot gold price was climbing $22.40, according to Kitco's gold index. The Fed unveiled no surprises with its latest FOMC rate decision Wednesday, and gold and silver were rallying as a result. Interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, and there were no changes to policies or forecasts. One minor tweak was a slight downgrade of the economy, as the Fed said "the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace." In March, it used the phrase "firmer footing."Find a new broker and trade onlineStocks reacted well to the news as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 96 points to 12,691, the S&P 500 ($INX) ended up 8 points to 1,356, and the Nasdaq ($COMPX) added 22 points to 2,870. The slight downgrade coupled with a slow employment recovery means no change in policy. No change in policy means the Fed will let QE2 expire but continue to reinvest profits, keeping its current balance sheet the same. The cheap money trend will continue, but without any excess money. ARTICLE CONTINUED AT LINK ABOVE Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 So is there anything besides a strengthening dollar that can turn gold prices around?I was under the impression that gold mines hold back product to influence the market and keep it strong, could they flood the market and crash gold?Or is the supply too small in comparison to the amount of paper money to reverse the gold prices? Link to post Share on other sites
ahosang 0 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 So is there anything besides a strengthening dollar that can turn gold prices around1?I was under the impression that gold mines hold back product to influence the market and keep it strong, could they flood the market and crash gold2?Or is the supply too small in comparison to the amount of paper money to reverse the gold prices3?1) Not at this time AFAIK. The rest of the world is well aware that dollar as reserve currency has been to enormous advantage of the US. They would like this advantage to come to an end, so the ECB holds gold on balance sheets and players are lining up gold to play a part in re-orientation of the system. However, this will be done as civilly as possible, despite what the doomsayers think. Countries do not really wish to see the world largest economy rapidly collapse. It benefits no-one because a beast mortally wounded can lash out in death throes and do crazy ****. Also, as consumers, the US is still desired by everyone else, just not with the hegemonic position.Let us see if discourse starts to flow out of the various 'authorities' in the world regarding the inevitable currency shift. It started already at 'Bretton Woods II'(lol). The discourse will not be defeatist as you know(or rabidly anti-American), it will be the cosmopolitan discourse such as posted by FCPBob in the politics forum as 'strategic narrative' etc. This paves the way for emotional acceptance by the nation and justification(for the progress of all humanity or some such thing). 2) Like to hear from aucu on this, but AFAIK they don't hold back to keep prices up. It's expensive, and the terms mean they needed prices to rise above where they were a few years ago to make it viable. aucu, what do you know on this arrangement??There is estimates of another 50,000 tonnes again underground, but even if there was 165,000 tonnes, that just matches the estimate of what is above ground. So doubles the world total at most. This would not 'flood the market', and furthermore takes time to extract. Flow rate is important.3) Again see above - but yes the amount of wealth denominated in 'paper money' will easily still be transferred into gold. It is not typical supply demand terms. And as above, flow is not instantaneous. In any case I am of the camp that believes that the gold price is really not going to be affected by mining issues, at least not at this level. Brace yourself for $2500 before 2013.And btw, if some of the really optimistic scenarios play out, you should buy physical gold(coins or bars), as some people say $20k/ounce in 5 years Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I was under the impression that gold mines hold back product to influence the market and keep it strong, could they flood the market and crash gold?Mines typically ship gold once a week to the refiner and is generally sold as it's produced, there was one notable exception and that was Goldcorp, they were holding a part of production as bullion and had around 200,000 oz but that was in 2003-4 when gold was sub $400, they did this to increase their exposure to rising gold. this position was liquidated for a takeover quite some time ago.The reverse of holding back gold was the norm for a while where mines would forward sell gold to lock in profits but now companies that are un-hedged are proud of it because the get the full upside exposure to the POG. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 So far today POG up $21 to $1557New all time high Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Plus since Mining Companies are using a long term assumption so far below current market, they'd sell all they possibly could, including futures, at current Market. They wouldn't hold back a single ounce. Link to post Share on other sites
ahosang 0 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 For anyone who wants to read more, try gata.org & remember you're responsible for your own diligence!! Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 For anyone who wants to read more, try gata.org & remember you're responsible for your own diligence!!That's Bill Murphy's site, I spoke with him at a trade show and well, he has his shtick and some points but is too "out there" for me. Link to post Share on other sites
Quacktastic 106 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 That's Bill Murphy's site, I spoke with him at a trade show and well, he has his shtick and some points but is too "out there" for me.He was great in Caddyshack though... Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 "Bark like a dog"That's gold right there... Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Plus since Mining Companies are using a long term assumption so far below current market, they'd sell all they possibly could, including futures, at current Market. They wouldn't hold back a single ounce.One of the first questions investors ask a mining company is "are you hedged" and what they want to hear is no, so that the stock is a true gold play with full upside POG exposure.Dumping futures would take that away and hurt your stock in this market and they only make the big bucks if the stock price keeps going up. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 One of the first questions investors ask a mining company is "are you hedged" and what they want to hear is no, so that the stock is a true gold play with full upside POG exposure.Dumping futures would take that away and hurt your stock in this market and they only make the big bucks if the stock price keeps going up.Isn't that because people investing in mining companies are looking to hit a home run, and not maximize expected value? Unless the mining company happens to employ someone who is psychic, the maximum value would likely to be to maintain an efficient hedge.When I look at mining companies, I want full exposure too, but I fully expect to lose most or all my money as poorly hedged companies in volatile fields are wont to do. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Isn't that because people investing in mining companies are looking to hit a home run, and not maximize expected value? Unless the mining company happens to employ someone who is psychic, the maximum value would likely to be to maintain an efficient hedge.When I look at mining companies, I want full exposure too, but I fully expect to lose most or all my money as poorly hedged companies in volatile fields are wont to do.The mines will by necessity forward sell some gold from time to time and have full time traders but they do their best not to forward sell more than they could deliver on by the end of the quarter or say a months production in excess of that because the CEOs of these companies are constantly predicting higher gold and can't have large short positions showing up in the reporting sending a mixed message to investors. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 POG at a new high this morning of $1575Silver took a dive this morning of of 13% to $42 making the news on CNN but has recovered to $47 and it's not even noon yet. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I don't understand silver prices at all this last week. They have taken major swings every day. Up 7%, down 4%, up 5%, down 10%. It's really crazy. I think I might be a buyer in the morning after a 4 dollar drop. Link to post Share on other sites
ahosang 0 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I don't understand silver prices at all this last week. They have taken major swings every day. Up 7%, down 4%, up 5%, down 10%. It's really crazy. I think I might be a buyer in the morning after a 4 dollar drop.According to Turd Ferguson(of http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/ )http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-d...multi-year-lows is a good link. Also the recent 3 margin hikes are important. This shakes out people who don't have the strength to cover large positions. Remember also silver is a tiny market right now. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 According to Turd Ferguson(of http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/ )http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-d...multi-year-lows is a good link. Also the recent 3 margin hikes are important. This shakes out people who don't have the strength to cover large positions. Remember also silver is a tiny market right now.Is that the same turd as our TF? Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Gold down about $25 might test the $1500 levelSilver down to $39Holding breath but I think we have seen the big move of the day. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Down at the start againGold dipped below 1500 briefly and could settle there somewhere south of there, but Silver has the big problemSilver down to $37 could drop to $30 short term, margin requirements are set to go up again next week and this could further push down silver. Link to post Share on other sites
ahosang 0 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Hong Kong to open exchange...http://www.commodityonline.com/news/HKMex-...-38544-3-1.html Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Gold has rebounded quite quickly, back over $1500.It has been two years since this thread was started at that time gold was trading for $912, today it's at $1509, up 65% not bad considering it's off recent highs. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now