Hand Discussion March 29th

[Vtlaxer09 4]

how come nobody is debating the numbers that mr sparco came up with? if his math is right it would seem that you should shove here.

i think tournament life trumps the +ev nature of the 200 or so extra chips we get.like... i think passing up on the edge iwth Aces... gives us a greater edge with the chips from the addon that are GUARANTEED as long as we fold.

[Mr. Sparco 2]

this didnt happen... i just wanted to create some discussion on the subject. good responses everyone.... for someone really good at math... I'd like to see some math corresponding to a player with a 50% roi in this same spot where there were 528 entrants, 440 total rebuys up until this point, and there were 410 players remaining in the tournament. Lets assume that only 380 of those addon.

The first step is easy: after the add-on, there will be 528 * 1500 + 440 * 1500 + 380 * 2000 = 2,212,000 chips in play. People have paid 528 * $55 + 440 * $50 + 380 * $50 = $70,040 for those. That means a single chip is worth $70,040/2,212,000 = 3.166 cents.So that's not very different from the numbers above. Now the hard part is the 50% ROI. If by that you mean that to you, every chip is worth 50% more than to the average player, you can multiply the 3.1 cents by 1.5, and it will become a very clear fold given the numbers above. Basically, since you outclass the field, your tournament life is worth much more than the few extra chips with a risk of busting.However, it's not clear that at this point a player with a 50% ROI will actually get 50% more value out of his chips. That 50% ROI is obtained from the beginning of a tournament, and you are already way behind your "usual schedule". In particular, after the break you will be forced to play push-or-fold poker, and it is hard to have a huge edge in that against a decent field. So, it's very hard to translate the 50% ROI into a usable number here.Still, I would guess (and that's all it is: a guess) that a player with a 50% ROI could still squeeze at least 20% extra value out of his chips here. Not necessarily in the push/fold stage, but in the cases where he actually manages to double once or twice and can outplay the field after that. So that would make your chips worth about 3.7 cents, and that would already be enough to make this a fold in most scenarios (basically any scenario but the one where only BB calls).So, I guess my conclusion remains the same in this case: an average player should push. A good to great player can fold.

how come nobody is debating the numbers that mr sparco came up with?

Because my posts are long and boring.

[checkymcfold 0]

not to sound contrary again, but there are all sorts of styles that can play at a 50% roi--some will play perfectly on a short stack, some will be nearly useless on one--and that's not even taking into account the way that other people at the table are going to react to various stack sizes and styles.i just don't think that roi% really helps us here, nor does much of the other math, since the context is going to far outweigh any mathematical approach by a WIDE margin in any sort of marginal decision that's not like calling all in, stealing any 2 spots, or something similar.

[Mr. Sparco 2]

i just don't think that roi% really helps us here, nor does much of the other math, since the context is going to far outweigh any mathematical approach by a WIDE margin in any sort of marginal decision that's not like calling all in, stealing any 2 spots, or something similar.

I agree with this, with the side note that the math helps you realize that this actually is a marginal spot. Given the responses above, this is definitely not intuitively clear to everybody. (It certainly wasn't to me - before doing the math I would also have said "instafold!")

[Vtlaxer09 4]

u is smart.

[Cappy37 0]

I'm amazed no one has pointed out that by shoving Aces and losing, we end up saving $55.

[dscoot 0]

Y not LIMP and follow these rules.1) any raise and call by more than 1 player and u muck to the RR. any raise and its back to you vs 1 opponent, you play.2) if it goes limp and you dont flop a safe near monster, (trips, nut flush draw, 222 flop etc), fold the flop to any bet with more than one player involved.3) the ideal situation is to limp, get 1person to make a large raise, perhaps even allin, then call only 1person, with also maybe some dead money from other limpers/raisers/blindsif you follow these rules you should either have 90chips going to the rebuy or a decent chance at 300-700

[Vtlaxer09 4]

Y not LIMP and follow these rules.1) any raise and call by more than 1 player and u muck to the RR. any raise and its back to you vs 1 opponent, you play.2) if it goes limp and you dont flop a safe near monster, (trips, nut flush draw, 222 flop etc), fold the flop to any bet with more than one player involved.3) the ideal situation is to limp, get 1person to make a large raise, perhaps even allin, then call only 1person, with also maybe some dead money from other limpers/raisers/blindsif you follow these rules you should either have 100chips going to the rebuy or a decent chance at 300-700

im sorry but this is just really stupid.

[no not baxter 0]

im sorry but this is just really stupid.

i bet you think these are too

[dscoot 0]

im sorry but this is just really stupid.

your NOT sorry, and this aint stupid. if u follow the rules exactly, it should be more valuable than just folding AA pre.

[antistuff 0]

Y not LIMP and follow these rules.1) any raise and call by more than 1 player and u muck to the RR. any raise and its back to you vs 1 opponent, you play.2) if it goes limp and you dont flop a safe near monster, (trips, nut flush draw, 222 flop etc), fold the flop to any bet with more than one player involved.3) the ideal situation is to limp, get 1person to make a large raise, perhaps even allin, then call only 1person, with also maybe some dead money from other limpers/raisers/blindsif you follow these rules you should either have 100chips g2oing to the rebuy or a decent chance at 300-700

the argument goes that you don't want to play it because you can't win enough chips to make the risk of busting worth it.

[Vtlaxer09 4]

your NOT sorry, and this aint stupid. if u follow the rules exactly, it should be more valuable than just folding AA pre.

teach me how to win the fcp wsop league.

[dscoot 0]

the argument goes that you don't want to play it because you can't win enough chips to make the risk of busting worth it.

since when is bying in for 2k when the chip average is 6k with only having 20-25bb to play a smart play? the smartest play is to not addon and walk away, but if you must play, then u better off trying to get extra chips.its entirely possible to get it in heads up with my system, and chip up to 400-700, which on your next double up, could be an 1500chips you earned.

[dscoot 0]

teach me how to win the fcp wsop league.

ive only seen you play once, so not sure if you were just horsing around, but only one of the best players in the world can make a longterm poker career by constantly 2x the blind. especially vs good opponents. there are practically zero truths or 100pcts in poker, but doubling the blind is clearly the top of my list for worst strategy possible.(unless of course your opponents are terrible and dont know how to counter this strat)

[rocketpoker828 0]

since when is bying in for 2k when the chip average is 6k with only having 20-25bb to play a smart play? the smartest play is to not addon and walk away, but if you must play, then u better off trying to get extra chips.its entirely possible to get it in heads up with my system, and chip up to 400-700, which on your next double up, could be an 1500chips you earned.

I mean, I'm no mathematical genius, but if you are properly rolled for the tournaments you are playing, then this is pretty bad.

[Vtlaxer09 4]

ive only seen you play once, so not sure if you were just horsing around, but only one of the best players in the world can make a longterm poker career by constantly 2x the blind. especially vs good opponents. there are practically zero truths or 100pcts in poker, but doubling the blind is clearly the top of my list for worst strategy possible.(unless of course your opponents are terrible and dont know how to counter this strat)

this was probably when i was playing with you at my table then.

[Tehtoe 3]

this was probably when i was playing with you at my table then.

right down the middle...and it's out of here!

[antistuff 0]

since when is bying in for 2k when the chip average is 6k with only having 20-25bb to play a smart play? the smartest play is to not addon and walk away, but if you must play, then u better off trying to get extra chips.its entirely possible to get it in heads up with my system, and chip up to 400-700, which on your next double up, could be an 1500chips you earned.

somebody needs to glue you to a poker table with a credit line on everything you own.

[HighwayStar 8]

somebody needs to glue you to a poker table with a credit line on everything you own.

ouch!

[FARGOpokerND 22]

This thread went from a really good read to an LOL read once DScoot started posting.

[Snamuh 0]

ive only seen you play once, so not sure if you were just horsing around, but only one of the best players in the world can make a longterm poker career by constantly 2x the blind. especially vs good opponents. there are practically zero truths or 100pcts in poker, but doubling the blind is clearly the top of my list for worst strategy possible.(unless of course your opponents are terrible and dont know how to counter this strat)

Uhhhh no. Minraising from a good player can actually be a formidable strategy in both tournies and cash games, given specific circumstances. You can't just speak in absolutes and say raising twice the blind is always going to be bad.

[no not baxter 0]

Uhhhh no. Minraising from a good player can actually be a formidable strategy in both tournies and cash games, given specific circumstances. You can't just speak in absolutes and say raising twice the blind is always going to be bad.

No, you are wrong. He is mother****ing dscoot.

[stevielarson 0]

Sigh at such a good debate getting derailed so easily. In all fairness VT, if you are going to create this thread and promote discussion then I think you need to be more willing to just point out why dscoot is wrong and let it go.I would like to see more discussion on at what stack size does this become a shove for a winning player. Based on sparco's math and some messing around with numbers I can see how for an average or below average player this might be a shove but at what point does a winning player (assume the 50% roi from before) with a very solid short stack game want to be shoving here?

[Gallo 1]

I'm amazed no one has pointed out that by shoving Aces and losing, we end up saving $55.

Cappy is slowly climbing the list as one of my fav posters.

Y not LIMP and follow these rules.1) any raise and call by more than 1 player and u muck to the RR. any raise and its back to you vs 1 opponent, you play.2) if it goes limp and you dont flop a safe near monster, (trips, nut flush draw, 222 flop etc), fold the flop to any bet with more than one player involved.3) the ideal situation is to limp, get 1person to make a large raise, perhaps even allin, then call only 1person, with also maybe some dead money from other limpers/raisers/blindsif you follow these rules you should either have 90chips going to the rebuy or a decent chance at 300-700

At least I was joking when I said to limp.

This thread went from a really good read to an LOL read once DScoot started posting.

Uhhhh no. Minraising from a good player can actually be a formidable strategy in both tournies and cash games, given specific circumstances. You can't just speak in absolutes and say raising twice the blind is always going to be bad.

Funny thing is that he says that there are no absolutes yet says that min raising 2xbb is bad.

[Vtlaxer09 4]

Sigh at such a good debate getting derailed so easily. In all fairness VT, if you are going to create this thread and promote discussion then I think you need to be more willing to just point out why dscoot is wrong and let it go.I would like to see more discussion on at what stack size does this become a shove for a winning player. Based on sparco's math and some messing around with numbers I can see how for an average or below average player this might be a shove but at what point does a winning player (assume the 50% roi from before) with a very solid short stack game want to be shoving here?

yeh my b... i just like to troll him and disagree with everything he says... its kinda hard not to though.