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Everything posted by Drwnded

  1. 'memba that?Still works to some degree at the lower levels.Best chance this guy has for his goal.
  2. My advice: Four-table playing $25 NLHE 9player ring games. Fold every hand except the following - Shove preflop with AA, KK. Limp with any pair, and fold on the flop if you miss your set, shove if you hit it. That's it.Chances are you'll end up where you want to be.
  3. In most online tourneys, playing small ball is like getting pecked to death by a duck.All it leads to is guys constantly reraising or cold-calling or shoving over the top of you, so you end up folding away all your chips.Works a lot better live, if you have the discipline to let marginal hands go after the flop.
  4. Read the link suggested regarding how Ferguson built up his roll. Bankroll management is key, and you'll get better as you grind.
  5. Small ball is a great way to play when you're deep-stacked with long slow blind levels.Unfortunately, there are very few true deepstack tourneys online.
  6. Looks pretty good as far as it goes - in terms of chip EV, but in a tourney setting chip EV is very different from real money EV.What I mean is, this formula doesn't incorporate the factors related to how the relative value of chips change over the course of a MTT.
  7. The only time I get killed these days is in 2/4 PLO. I only play that game when I'm drinking.There may be a connection there somewhere.
  8. HOH is great for NLHE tourneys. Sklanky's stuff is great for cash games (but dense, with a lot of theory that's interesting but probably won't increase your earn rate much).The most innovative poker info currently is only available in online courses, imho. Don't get me wrong, most of them are junk, but there's a few that are excellent.
  9. What you suggest (flop set or check/fold) was my plan preflop, but other than a set I felt the flop I got was one of the better ones possible for my hand. Quickly thinking about what the villain's possible holdings were, I felt I likely had the best hand as well as fold equity should I shove after he raised (he had definitely shown he could lay down a hand to a reraise).
  10. Played a live NLHE MTT yesterday, 260 players, $650 buy-in, hosted by several well-known poker pros. I had been playing at a table with a well-known pro (villain) for several hours when the following hand occurred. The pro and I had both been playing TAG; in fact, I had won every hand I'd shown down (one set, kings twice, flush) and several others without a fight; he had also showed down some very strong hands. The rest of the table was mostly playing loose passive, with a lot of limping/unraised pots/multiway flops.Blinds are 200/400 with 25 ante (starting pot = 850). Hero has approx 1500
  11. So, pretty close to one in a million huh? Kind of ended up back where we started Well done guys. I am, as promised, impressed.
  12. In bold above, AA three times in a row, would be 1/220^3 =1/10.6 million actually. One in a million only goes for aces OR kings 3 times in a row (1/110^3)However I, for one, thoroughly understand your point, although I think the poster you're responding to was mostly kidding. Now, if you can tell me how to calculate what the probability is of being dealt either aces OR kings on three consecutive hands at any time during a sample of 100,000 consecutive hands, I'll be impressed.Not that it matters or anything, but I gotta believe there are math geeks out there who live for this kind of thing.
  13. As stated, I agree with tight play early online. In LP, I will also play speculative hands like small pairs and suited connectors, but I disagree that the pot must be unraised. I'm happy to call a small raise because if I hit my hand hard and make two pair or better, or a big big draw, then you'll often break someone with an overpair. Also, if the original raiser has a two-broadway type hand and misses the flop, he'll either check the flop to you and you can often steal the pot with a bet, or he'll make a lame, obvious probe/continuation-type bet which you can then raise significantly with
  14. 1/220 is the odds of being dealt any specific PP. Since I said EITHER AA or KK, the odds of being either AA OR KK would be about 1/110^3 or roughly 1 in a million, on any 3 consecutive hands.As MasterLJ mentioned, the odds of this happening on three consecutive hands during a sample of, let's say for argument, 100k consecutive hands, is a much more difficult computation. Any math geeks out there care to give it a shot?
  15. Last night in a NLHE tourney on FT, on three consecutive hands, I was dealt AA, AA, and KK. Assuming the odds of being dealt either AA or KK on any given hand is roughly 1 in 100, then the odds of it occuring 3 times in a row would be 1/100 X 1/100 X 1/100 = 1/1000000, correct? One in a million shot? I guess I shouldn't hold my breath until it happens again.BTW, even more amazingly, I won all three hands.
  16. consider bodog as well, if only b/c they have daily 25k and weekly 100k tournies, along with a lot of WSOP qualifiers, that almost always have huge overlays. i recently deposited there; can't stand the software so far, but hard to pass up the amount of money added.
  17. With aces and this much action in front of you, you should feel free to move-in preflop. These guys like their hands, and won't like you trying to shut them out preflop. Amazingly, you'll often get a call here with 88-KK and AK, even AQ occaisonally.Even if everyone folds, you still add to your stack and avoid the suckout potential, and you can flash your aces to set up future hands.
  18. 1st hand: I put him all-in preflop. If you don't, most likely you're facing overcards post-flop and groping in the dark out of position against someone who's probably moving all in if you check to him no matter what he has - so why leave yourself a tough decision?2nd hand: I agree with you, and would tend to call here. If he happened to wake up with a real hand this time, so be it. I think there's an excellent chance you have him dominated.
  19. At a full FT, you usually have at least 2-3 small stacks looking to push, so I generally don't enter a pot unless I'm willing to call a push from a small stack behind me preflop. I think it's a good idea to wait a couple orbits, unless you get a big hand, to get a read on what range of hands you're opponents are willing to raise with, or call a raise with, preflop. Even the frequency with which someone raises at the final table, even if it doesn't go to showdown, is usually enough to give you some idea of their criteria and let you decide what range hands you're willing to play against them.
  20. I cashed out 29k from a big tourney win recently from Full Tilt - I requested the cashout for the full amount and initially it seemed to go through, then I got an email from Full Tilt saying that b/c of Neteller limits, I needed to cashout 8k,8k,8k,+5k. I put in those requests and they went right through and the money was available on Neteller immediately. I then requested a check ($2 fee) from Neteller for the total amount, and received it in the mail 3-4 days later.
  21. How do you expect to do that if you pass up +chip EV situations? This debate is one reason I specifically mentioned that this was a sat with the flat top 5 payout structure. If this were a normal tourney, I think it would be foolish to fold - you're likely about a 2-1 dog, and you're getting 2.5-1 on your money. In a normal tourney, your goal should be in the top 3 where the real money is, not to try and sneak into the money obviously, and if you pass up +chip EV situations like this you're not likely to make the top 3.Cash game: no brainer - you're giving away money long term if you fold
  22. Results, since you asked: BB had Ac3c, button had KcQc. I called and caught another 4 on the river to fill up and win the pot, after which I did make the top 5.I ran the odds after the flop on cardplayer - I was 35% to win after the flop with two cards to come. At the time when I called, I figured I had 7 pretty solid outs (3 fours, 3 nines, and the case 7) plus maybe half an out for a running pair to fill me up (e.g. 8 on turn, 8 on river etc). Using the rule of four, I estimated 7.5 X 4 = 30% win chance, which still made this a call based on pot odds. So i suppose the 5% difference must
  23. I agree calling is the right play here b/c of the pot odds, which is why I posted the hand. However, I do think it's a big stretch to think you're not behind to one or both of your opponents.Forgetting about 99, it's hard to believe the BB would push his whole stack in with 5 other players still in the hand with him, with less than the ace of clubs or a made flush. Once he's all in, what hands would the button call off essentially his whole stack with, other than (maybe) the ace of clubs or a made flush, given the pot odds he was presented with at the time. Since I hadn't called yet, he was
  24. Interesting hand from last evening: FT NLHE satellite, 40 players, 20 remain, top 5 win buy-in. Nine handed, blinds at 50-100. Hero's stack is about 3300.UTG raises to 250, Mp1, Mp2, and button all call. Hero is SB with 7h7d. Hero and BB call as well (preflop pot = 1500).Flop: 9c 7c 4cHero(SB) checks, BB moves all in for 3000 more. UTG, MP1, MP2 all fold. Button calls 3000. Hero has about 3000 chips remaining. Your move?
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