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Now, Later, Never? (sh) (3/6)


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Bodog 3/6 NLHE (6-handed)MP $605CO $954Cobalt $1068Cobalt is SB w/ A :D A :D. I've been on a bit of roll. MP is a frequent open-limper. CO plays quite a few hands but rarely raises pre-flop...particularly after a limper. He'll play back at me occasionally post-flop...usually I've gone away.Pre-flop:1 fold, MP calls, CO raises to $27, 1 fold, Cobalt re-raises to $87, 2 folds, CO callsFlop ($186): 8 :D T :club: 3 :D (2 players)Cobalt bets $125, CO raises to $276, Cobalt ?

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His range is probably heavily weighted from 88, TT-AA... right?Can he get away from an overpair if we shove? He could interpret that as us being fed up with always folding to his postflop playing back at us...

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I think I like a shove here (usually the right play with AA),One, your ahead quite often. In fact because he likes to limp so much makes me think 88 and 33 are less likely, and no reason to count out the flush draw here. Also, I think you calling the bet looks just as strong as a shove, except you get less money in the pot when you are way ahead of his range. So the turn is gonna be weird, probably check/check with any of his holdings (except set). And then your gonna have to put a lot more money in on the river (check/call or bet/call), except you have given him two free streets to get there with his flush.Another reason I like the shove is for metagame reasons. You have said he has played back at you on a few flops. Well if you are waiting to flop a set vs an agro post flop player like this, he is gonna run over you really fast. So besides the fact there is value in a shove, we need to show some aggression ourselves to protect future hands.

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From your info in the OP, it kind of implies that he's got some fairly tightish preflop raising standards, which kinda pushes his hand away from including 88. I think he can show up with TT here, but that QQ is also very likely.I guess it's all about what range he'd call a push with and how he'd interpret it from you. I agree that calling looks v strong here so I'm inclined to raise, especially if he'll stack off with QQ or JJ.

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Pre-flop:1 fold, MP calls, CO raises to $27, 1 fold, Cobalt re-raises to $87, 2 folds, CO calls
This action and the flop action tells me you're miles ahead, with villain probably on QQ. Maybe villain is AdKd. Smooth calling the flop raise seems wrong; I think we want the money in now.
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I think his raise bet sizing is important here, I mean he is minraising +$26 without being there it almost looks like he is trying to induce a push, or trying to get you to fold a hand for cheap.With the flush draw and the straight draw, and the fact that he could easily have KK-JJ and think they will be good here. I don't think I am folding so that leaves shoving.

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Bodog 3/6 NLHE (6-handed)MP $605CO $954Cobalt $1068Cobalt is SB w/ A :D A :D. I've been on a bit of roll. MP is a frequent open-limper. CO plays quite a few hands but rarely raises pre-flop...particularly after a limper. He'll play back at me occasionally post-flop...usually I've gone away.Pre-flop:1 fold, MP calls, CO raises to $27, 1 fold, Cobalt re-raises to $87, 2 folds, CO callsFlop ($186): 8 :D T :club: 3 :D (2 players)Cobalt bets $125, CO raises to $276, Cobalt ?
folding is out of the question imo. I see him having JJ-KK quite often here (more often QQ and KK). He could also possibly have AdKd, or AdQd or something. I think he could also potentially have TT or 88...33 he likely limps given your read.Against that range, according to poker stove, you have 67.6% equity. Now, the question becomes what hands in his range he would fold to a raise?If the board was rainbow, I'd be more comfortable smooth calling and c/r all in on the turn. It'd also be easier if you had the Ace of diamonds. Given how you don't, I like raising here and calling a shove. raise to 536.
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I think what leads me to raise/push instead of calling here, is that Cobalt says he's played back at us before, and we've just folded. I think a call here is just screaming strength, while a raise could be perceived as us playing back at him finally, and could at least increase the chances we get more money from a worse hand, and we have the added benefit of charging the **** out of the draws.

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Also, I think you calling the bet looks just as strong as a shove, except you get less money in the pot when you are way ahead of his range. So the turn is gonna be weird, probably check/check with any of his holdings (except set). And then your gonna have to put a lot more money in on the river (check/call or bet/call), except you have given him two free streets to get there with his flush.Another reason I like the shove is for metagame reasons. You have said he has played back at you on a few flops. Well if you are waiting to flop a set vs an agro post flop player like this, he is gonna run over you really fast. So besides the fact there is value in a shove, we need to show some aggression ourselves to protect future hands.
Yup. I love all this.
If the board was rainbow, I'd be more comfortable smooth calling and c/r all in on the turn. It'd also be easier if you had the Ace of diamonds. Given how you don't, I like raising here and calling a shove. raise to 536.
Was gonna mention this, but you did here. This is kind of touched on with Cwik not wanting the c/c to happen on the turn, which would suck.
I think what leads me to raise/push instead of calling here, is that Cobalt says he's played back at us before, and we've just folded. I think a call here is just screaming strength, while a raise could be perceived as us playing back at him finally, and could at least increase the chances we get more money from a worse hand, and we have the added benefit of charging the **** out of the draws.
Agree.I don't have much to add after these three parts, I just think they are all really good reasons for why shoving >>>>>>>>>> calling.
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If the board was rainbow, I'd be more comfortable smooth calling and c/r all in on the turn. It'd also be easier if you had the Ace of diamonds.
Absolutely key bits to my consideration. I'm glad someone mentioned them. Interesting idea with the non-push re-raise...not something I'd considered...though I guess it could work.Also, I think villain's range here is typically KK-TT or maybe AdKd/AdQd.
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For sake of completion, I shoved. Villain thought for a while and finally claimed to have folded QQ. I wish the board had been a bit more dry.

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