What Was That Sound?

[WrongWay 0]

this is really weird.who does this?seriously.who does this?

Yeah... who would stand on the deck of the Titanic and tell people that the ship is going down? First in the lifeboats have the best chance of surviving.Much better to just let people sit and enjoy the music.Come ON!!!!! People deserve knowledge.http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estat...eymag/index.htm"MONEY has obtained more than 100 e-mails and faxes sent by loan officers to appraisers across the country. The language varies from asking if a predetermined value was possible to promising more business if a number could be hit."The appraisers, the mortgage brokers and the borrowers conspired to defraud on a MASSIVE scale, and now each is trying to sell out the other. Why else would the head of the Appraiser professional organization be sayng that all the honest appraisers didn't get any work???? It is just going to turn ugly fast.Then there are the realtors that will just say and do anything to make one more sell.http://www.mantecabulletin.com/articles/20.../news/news2.txt'Wilson noted those on the sidelines shouldn’t panic at all about dropping prices.“You can’t lose what you never had,” she aid of equity losses. “It only counts when you go to sell.”'"And as Bragan points out, this may be the absolute best time to be a buyer given inventory, prices, and financing."Yeah, inventory is WAY up, and getting higher by the day. Buyers are gone. Prices are set to crash.... So come buy now and WAY too much. It is the best time to buy... well, not for the buyer. Anyone that buys now is FARKED compared to what they'll be able to get a year or two from now.... It is the best time for the realtor that REALLY needs to make some sales.

[Actuary 3]

lolyou have an agenda and it's not just to help us.this is intersting in a car crash way.

[strategy 4]

Sweet feed by Thornton, awesome goal by Cheechoo. Suck it, "dominator."

[hblask 1]

The point is, NO ONE CARES. No one is responding to you "in denial", or sitting on the edge of our seats asking for more... you're just shoving it down our throats

this is really weird.who does this?seriously.who does this?

See, this is the point, OP. Nobody is arguing that you are wrong. Yet you continue to argue with nobody to make a point nobody is disputing. The responses so far have been:1) You are being a bit rabid about this.2) What you are saying is common knowledge. You do not have any special insider information that hasn't been published a zillion times, as your endless links have shown.3) There is always someone predicting gloom and doom at every point in history. Eventually, one or more of them will be correct. This may or may not be one of the times when that is correct.4) The housing market is definitely weak, but nobody knows how much further it can fall or when it will recover.5) Any argument that references Lyndon LaRouche's website is DOA.Notice that none of those are saying "go out and buy real estate", or even "this is a relatively good time to buy." Yet you are determined to prove these latter two statements wrong, despite have nobody arguing those points.

[strategy 4]

See, this is the point, OP. Nobody is arguing that you are wrong. Yet you continue to argue with nobody to make a point nobody is disputing. The responses so far have been:1) You are being a bit rabid about this.2) What you are saying is common knowledge. You do not have any special insider information that hasn't been published a zillion times, as your endless links have shown.3) There is always someone predicting gloom and doom at every point in history. Eventually, one or more of them will be correct. This may or may not be one of the times when that is correct.4) The housing market is definitely weak, but nobody knows how much further it can fall or when it will recover.5) Any argument that references Lyndon LaRouche's website is DOA.Notice that none of those are saying "go out and buy real estate", or even "this is a relatively good time to buy." Yet you are determined to prove these latter two statements wrong, despite have nobody arguing those points.

You totally forgot to mention San Jose's dominance of Detroit in their second round series. Detroit just doesn't have the depth to compete.

[Actuary 3]

Rollin with the flow Going where the lonely go Anywhere the lights are low Going where the lonely goMaking up things to doNot running in all directions Trying to find you I'm rollin with the flow Going where the lonely go I've got to keep rollin I can't lay downSleep won't hardly come When theres loneliness all around I've got to keep goin Travling down this lonesome road I'm rollin with the flow Goin where the lonely go

[Actuary 3]

[SilentSnow 1]

See, this is the point, OP. Nobody is arguing that you are wrong. Yet you continue to argue with nobody to make a point nobody is disputing. The responses so far have been:1) You are being a bit rabid about this.2) What you are saying is common knowledge. You do not have any special insider information that hasn't been published a zillion times, as your endless links have shown.3) There is always someone predicting gloom and doom at every point in history. Eventually, one or more of them will be correct. This may or may not be one of the times when that is correct.4) The housing market is definitely weak, but nobody knows how much further it can fall or when it will recover.5) Any argument that references Lyndon LaRouche's website is DOA.Notice that none of those are saying "go out and buy real estate", or even "this is a relatively good time to buy." Yet you are determined to prove these latter two statements wrong, despite have nobody arguing those points.

For no particular reason you in particular(among others) are being rabid about offering lots of non-responses. Does it really kill you to ignore a thread you dont care about?What he is saying is not necessarily common knowledge. There are tons of people in the mainstream media claiming that the housing slowdown or downturn has just about ended or wont drop much farther.He is not saying he has special or secret information. I dont know why you are so obsessed about this point that he was never trying to make in the first place.2, 3 and 4 contradict each other to some degree. First you say it's common knowledge, then you say that nobody can know whether things will get worse. Why dont you make up your mind and then get back to us. Also, you have done way to much arguing for a simple appeal to ignorance to convince anyone at this point. You're going to have to put up some real evidence why the market is fairly valued at this point, which is what you would need to predict that prices are as likely to stabilize as go down in the future. Maybe wrongway is being a little obsessive, but maybe he is also annoyed that you guys keep posting lousy arguments and nonresponses, so mistakenly thinks that by posting more evidence you guys will become more convinced.

[Actuary 3]

Maybe wrongway is being a little obsessive, .

ya think?I'm obv guilty of non-response because we have poster going nutz here.It's kinda unprecedented?

[Loismustdie 0]

ya think?I'm obv guilty of non-response because we have poster going nutz here.It's kinda unprecedented?

I actually think that WrongWay is doing a great service. I talk with people every day who still think that the investment THEY made is clearly going to work out, and the reasons are always personal and make no logical investment sense. Working for a brokerage firm has taught me one thing very quickly- most people have no idea what they are doing when it comes to investing. Absolutely no idea whatsoever. Within 2 years the amount of screaming deals to be had is going to be awesome. Save your money now and buy 3 houses later instead of 1 overpriced one now, and you will thank me later.

[hblask 1]

For no particular reason you in particular(among others) are being rabid about offering lots of non-responses. Does it really kill you to ignore a thread you dont care about?

I'm with Actuary on this one, I'm fascinated in a car-wreck sort of way. It almost seems like he's trying to sell something, but just hasn't gotten to it yet. And his arguments get more maniacal as it goes, despite nobody disputing them. So why am I in this? For the amusement of it.

First you say it's common knowledge, then you say that nobody can know whether things will get worse. Why dont you make up your mind and then get back to us. Also, you have done way to much arguing for a simple appeal to ignorance to convince anyone at this point. You're going to have to put up some real evidence why the market is fairly valued at this point, which is what you would need to predict that prices are as likely to stabilize as go down in the future.

There have been predictions of doom and gloom for at least three years. That's not a surprise. But predictions don't mean knowledge. People make predictions all the time, and are mostly wrong. There doesn't seem to be any reason that this one has any better chance of being correct than any of the others unless OP can show us where he has some special information. Appeals to articles in the mass media is hardly a way to demonstrate a market inefficiency that anyone can take advantage of.See, maybe here's the real reason I'm continuing with this. I object to people who pretend to have special knowledge, who pretend that they alone have some secret route to the truth when millions of other people are acting on that same information every single day. Just bugs me, I guess.And, oh, I won't present evidence that the market is fairly valued because I never argued that point. I just said that it's a bit silly to say that, given the same information that has been published locally and nationally for several years, OP has some special understanding of the real estate market that exceeds that of all the other millions of people who have that same information and act on it on a daily basis.Ready, set, go. Time for more links to things nobody is disputing!

[SilentSnow 1]

I'm with Actuary on this one, I'm fascinated in a car-wreck sort of way. It almost seems like he's trying to sell something, but just hasn't gotten to it yet. And his arguments get more maniacal as it goes, despite nobody disputing them. So why am I in this? For the amusement of it.There have been predictions of doom and gloom for at least three years. That's not a surprise. But predictions don't mean knowledge. People make predictions all the time, and are mostly wrong. There doesn't seem to be any reason that this one has any better chance of being correct than any of the others unless OP can show us where he has some special information. Appeals to articles in the mass media is hardly a way to demonstrate a market inefficiency that anyone can take advantage of.See, maybe here's the real reason I'm continuing with this. I object to people who pretend to have special knowledge, who pretend that they alone have some secret route to the truth when millions of other people are acting on that same information every single day. Just bugs me, I guess.And, oh, I won't present evidence that the market is fairly valued because I never argued that point. I just said that it's a bit silly to say that, given the same information that has been published locally and nationally for several years, OP has some special understanding of the real estate market that exceeds that of all the other millions of people who have that same information and act on it on a daily basis.Ready, set, go. Time for more links to things nobody is disputing!

There are 71 posts in this thread not made by wrongway, so he is getting some response obviously. I would be interested to know what "special information" would convince you. Everything he's been saying is pretty unusual from a historical standpoint, and when you add it all up, the risks to the downside appear to greatly outweigh the risk that you will miss the next boom by selling or not buying now. Also, wouldnt the fact that everyone is trying to sell at once be evidence of a market inefficiency?Without getting into all of the reasons why, I dont think markets are nearly as efficient as you think they are. And I should add that what bugs me is that anyone who uses the phrase "doom and gloom" usually then proceeds to dismiss arguments they dont like without even considering the evidence. Maybe his "secret route to the truth" is that unlike everyone else he actually read all the articles and put the pieces together. Since just about every housing "expert" has a conflict of interest in wanting to sell you real estate, then there probably arent many influential people out there who you can trust to give you a good assessment of the housing market. Also, it would be almost impossible to overestimate the average person's ability to ignore readily accessible information. Just because the information was out there means nothing. Things got so overvalued because just about everybody was willing to ignore this information, for whatever reasons.

[WrongWay 0]

lolyou have an agenda and it's not just to help us.this is intersting in a car crash way.

So, what could my agenda possibly be?Is it the same agenda that had me sating tons of time in the gun control thread, trying to tell people what the real probelm is? Wake up people. Guns don't cause murder, socio-economics cause murder.Is it the same agenda that draws me to the religion boards? Wake up people, there is no God. What in the hell do you think my agenda could possibly be?

[WrongWay 0]

See, this is the point, OP. Nobody is arguing that you are wrong. Yet you continue to argue with nobody to make a point nobody is disputing. The responses so far have been:1) You are being a bit rabid about this.

Because others are being rabid about telling me to shut up.

2) What you are saying is common knowledge. You do not have any special insider information that hasn't been published a zillion times, as your endless links have shown.

So, what's the problem with me saying it again?

3) There is always someone predicting gloom and doom at every point in history. Eventually, one or more of them will be correct. This may or may not be one of the times when that is correct.4) The housing market is definitely weak, but nobody knows how much further it can fall or when it will recover.

Which is why people should take a LONG hard look at the fundamentals.

5) Any argument that references Lyndon LaRouche's website is DOA.

I have no idea who this guy is. Just that his opinion seemed to be in line with what the fundamentals indicate. Maybe he is a nutjob, I don't know. But as you said, even a doom-and-gloomer is right once in a while

Notice that none of those are saying "go out and buy real estate", or even "this is a relatively good time to buy." Yet you are determined to prove these latter two statements wrong, despite have nobody arguing those points.

I'm just providing some info. WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM WITH ME PROVIDING INFO?????? Everyone's point seems to be "shut up".I've heard that request. I am disenclined to acquiesce to your request.In short, "No, I'm not going to shut up".So, if you have a point other than "shut up", I'd love to hear it.

[WrongWay 0]

Maybe wrongway is being a little obsessive, but maybe he is also annoyed that you guys keep posting lousy arguments and nonresponses, so mistakenly thinks that by posting more evidence you guys will become more convinced.

I'm doing 2 things.1) Providing info2) Responding to requets to "shut up" with a firm no thanks.As far as convincing anyone of anything, I'm limiting that to convincing those that are telling me to shut up, that I have no intention of shutting up.

[WrongWay 0]

I just said that it's a bit silly to say that, given the same information that has been published locally and nationally for several years, OP has some special understanding of the real estate market that exceeds that of all the other millions of people who have that same information and act on it on a daily basis.

Maybe you've been hearing it for 3 years. I'm just a hick from the sticks. Our prices didn't peak until 6 months ago. 3 years ago we were getting 50% YoY gains. 2 years ago we were getting 20% gains. Out here in the sticks, all we get is channels like CNBC that keeps saying that there is no problem, is contained, no big deal.They have debates between people with staticstics showing it is doomed, against people with a vested interest in making you go out and buy a house. Oddly, the guy with the vested interest in you buying a house, says were at bottom. Most us hicks out here in the sticks seem to think either position is equally supported.I'm rabid because this is huge, and I think there are millions that haven't even looked at the data yet.Do I claim insider info? Hell no. Quite the contrary. I'm not an insider, and I think the insiders are doing EVERYTHING they can to paint as rosy a picture as possible. Wouldn't you if your livelihood depended on duping people.Here's an offer. I'll stop talking about this as soon as I stop seeing realtors quited in every paper in the country trying to convince people that now is the time to buy.Now is SOOOO not the time to buy. Realtors that try to convince you that now is the time to buy is a bung hole that will say anything and do anything to make commissions. They are comissioned sales people, NOT unbiased sources of information. Papers should stop putting their stupid "now is the time to buy" quotes in news articles. If the realtors want to ge their lies out, they should have to buy ads like the rest of people that are full of cow dung.

[hblask 1]

I would be interested to know what "special information" would convince you. Everything he's been saying is pretty unusual from a historical standpoint, and when you add it all up, the risks to the downside appear to greatly outweigh the risk that you will miss the next boom by selling or not buying now. Also, wouldnt the fact that everyone is trying to sell at once be evidence of a market inefficiency?

And now you continue the trend of arguing with a point that nobody is taking the other side of. The point: he doesn't know, I don't know, you don't know. The persistence with which he pretends to know is what is fascinating/amusing.Overall, I agree, it looks like a bad time to buy real estate. That's a lot different than pretending to be The One who has The Knowledge of THe Impending Crash which will harm us for generations.

[hblask 1]

Here's a question...Which is a bigger mistake: to invest too heavily in an asset that by historical standards appears overpriced, or to base your investment decisions on over-the-top predictions of a random internet stranger?Bzzt.It's a trick question. Both will make you go broke in the long run.Here's my advice to anyone reading this thread: diversify, live within your means, look at the long term, and don't try to "time" your investments based on anything other than what makes sense for you in your own life based on all factors. And if someone claims "I know what's coming next", run. Run far far away.

[hblask 1]

Because others are being rabid about telling me to shut up.

Nobody is telling you to shut up. People are basically saying "you may be correct, you may be wrong, but we don't know and you don't know, and your over-the-top style makes you look like a nutcase." That is all.Seriously, you don't know any more than Joe Schmoe living in Podunk, Nebraska. Everyone seems to agree: the real estate market appears ready to correct. In most of the country, that correction is at least a year old, in others it isn't. Some areas are in better shape than others. Some will fall a lot, some will fall a little, some will climb. Nobody knows which will do which.Here in the Twin Cities, it looks like another year of flat or slightly falling prices. Would I argue that I am sure of this? Would I try to convince others that I am correct? Absolutely not. That'd be crazy talk.Other areas of the country appear to be in deep trouble, although people have been saying that about certain areas, such as San Francisco, for as long as I can remember. So you have to take such predictions with a grain of salt.So through it all, the thing to remember is that the chance of any given prediction being correct is just slightly higher than 50/50, with higher odds for common sense long-term predictions and lower odds for over-the-top now-is-the-time sky-is-falling type predictions.

[Ouch-8s 4]

SYNERGY IS FOR FAGGOTS!

As the co-CEO of EightSteveSpeedzes (Proactively commited to redefining the paradigm of excellence synergistically), I object to your statement. EVERYBODY needs synergy, lots and lots more of it as a matter of fact. Synergy - not just for faggots anymore!

[Actuary 3]

Nobody is telling you to shut up. People are basically saying "you may be correct, you may be wrong, but we don't know and you don't know, and your over-the-top style makes you look like a nutcase." That is all.

I'd actually "be with Hblask" if you would limit your posts to thisBut then you'll actually make sensible posts contributing to the discussion :)And SilentSnow, when someone acts like the OP, it's no longer about "is the info useful and true".The annoy factor and the "look at that weirdo" factor interferes with the dialogue.I just laugh when you actually started discussing the merits of his posts "doing a service"..probably the info is solid (I still have hardly done more than scan) but the delivery is amusing.I guess I did not realize that he has show fanatacism on other topics here...,,watch him go!!!!!

[Dukefanjohn 0]

Joe Schmoe living in Podunk, Nebraska.

aww man, why'd you have to bring my cousin into this?wrongway, in regard to your sky is falling rant, how do you explain the nearly 90% of people who are actually paying mortgage debt on time? Are there problems with the real estate market? sure there are. Were there problems in the real estate market in the 80s? You bet there were. Mortgage Insurance companies had to pay out almost $5 billion dollars in claims on loans that went south. Did the sky fall? maybe a little, did the market recover? yes. I see you have 460+ posts, I think half of them are in this thread alone. I live in one of those "overpriced" markets. Hell, my house doubled in value in the 4 years I have owned it. Am I worried that the value will fall? a little, but I dont lie awake at night thinking about it and I sure dont continue an argument that there is a problem for 7 pages worth of thread on an internet forum, and not even a financial one at that. Your number about subprime lenders going down is a little off. This website , http://ml-implode.com/ , is actively tracking the subprime issue. If you are so worried about it, click the paypal link and give the nice people a donation. And before you ask, I am a Business Analyst for a Mortgage Lender, and again, I don't lie awake at night wondering what is going to happen to the company I work for.go ahead and post some more links. You might just stumble across something that hasn't been discussed ad nauseum.

[WrongWay 0]

A tale of two sisters: One single with $35K a year income and 2 kids, putting herself thru night school working on a MBA. Other married with combined income of $80K and 1 kid, long ago completed her bachelors at parents' expense.See if you can figure out which is which.Sister A )Jan 2002 buys a house for $140K, 30 year fixed 6.5%18 months later Mar 2003. cash-out refi for $167K, ARM 6.7-9.7%, prepay penalty29 months later, Oct 2005, bankruptcy.1 month later, Nov 2005, cash out refi for $216K, ARM 8% - 14%9 month later, Aug 2006, cash out refi for $243K, Interst only ARM 8%-14%, prepay penalty.4 months later, put it on the market FSBO for $309K4 months later tried to hire a realtor, but told it couldn't go for more than $260K, at best.Sister B )Sept 2003, Buys a house for $132K, 30 year fixed, 6.5%July 2005, refi just rolling in fees and paying off $3K total credit card debt, $138K, 30 year fixed at 5.5%, and able to drop PMI.Yeah, sister B is the single mother of two. Her and I are getting married in July.Why am I so rabid about this? Because the sister and her husband fly all over the country going to sporting events, drive brand new SUVs, take trips to the Caribbean, planning a trip to Disney World in the fall, etc. Last time we talked to them, they mentioned thinking that the federal government needs to rescue people that were taken advantage of by predatory lenders.OH NO!!!! Not just NO, HAIL NO!!!!!!! As this situation with the housing price implosion gets uglier and uglier, there will be more and more foreclosures and the lenders that stand to loose hundreds of billions, if not trillions, will be calling for a bail out, pretending it is to help victims save their house, but really it would be to lock those people into overpiced houses to save the LENDERS!!!!No! The lenders made stupid loans to people that had NO CHANCE of paying it back. NO BAIL OUT. NOT with my tax money.Gawd this pisses me off that it is even being talked about. Now that my fiancee has completed her masters and gotten a new job with a huge raise, we have combined income almost double her sister and sister's hubby. We make twaice as much, but live a lifestyle as if we make half as much.And the government is thinking of taking our tax money to bail out the sister??????OH NO!!!! Not just NO, HAIL NO!!!!!!! Gawd this pisses me off!

[kers2 0]

So it really is all about you after all, isnt it?

[WrongWay 0]

Son of a BIATCH....The idea of a direct federal bailout of the idiot lenders that pushed the market to unsustainable highs, got shot down like a fish in a barrell.So, they are trying to sneak it past under our noses.FHA is upping the limits, dropping lending standards, reducing the down payments, and letting just about EVERY company become an FHA approved lender without having to do audits and such. Holy crap. They're going to refi all these sub-prime loans to FHA, federally insured, then when it goes belly up, the lenders get paid back out of tax money.NO FU..ING WAY!!!!!! Let the bankers that make these insane loans take it in the arse. This is complete and utter melt down, and the U.S. tax payer again taking the falling knife.I do kind of feel sorry for the Democrats though. The knife was thrown way the f' up into the air under the watch of the Republicans. The Democrats too over at exactly the wrong time. They stepped under the falling knife, and now will forever get teh blame. Stagflation was on the horizon when Jimmy Carter took office, but he caught the falling knife.Recession was on the horizon when H.W. Bush took over, but he still caught the knife.The stock bubble burst was on the horizon, but W. Bush still "almost" caught the knife. Good thing 9-11 happend to save him... No, I don't think 9-11 was a conspiracy within our government. Just fortunate timing.