Yoda 1 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Tha'ts what I got; warehouse space. Two 5,600 SF warehouses with 900SF office space. But since I rent to myself I have a good tenant. Hopefully in the near future I can retire, and rent these out to generate about $10K a month in passive income, that I can stake someone else to play higher limits or WSOP events, someone better then me, like Yoda.It's all a circleFYP Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 must be short some REIT'sNope. Just pointing out the obvious to people that still don't realize what is happening. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Nope. Just pointing out the obvious to people that still don't realize what is happening.so just in case you've lived in a cave for the past year and can't read a newspaper or turn on a television, the visionary wrongway's got your back. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 so just in case you've lived in a cave for the past year and can't read a newspaper or turn on a television, the visionary wrongway's got your back.Not everyone lives in Chicago which was one of the leading markets to pop. Here in PHX, and many other parts around the country, we're still being told this is highly isolated. Highly contained. Not going to hit us. Our prices didn't peak until 6 months ago, and have been flat since, with listings actually dropping through the winter.http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace...valuesspring07/Note that it hasn't been updated since early March... because March and April were UGLY!!!! Our pop just started withn the last few months. Many haven't noticed yet.This is just the rest of the country starting to arrive where you've been for the last year. Link to post Share on other sites
SBriand 4 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 It's fun being in Michigan where the outside grows and we just get weaker... Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Not everyone lives in Chicago which was one of the leading markets to pop. Here in PHX, and many other parts around the country, we're still being told this is highly isolated. Highly contained. Not going to hit us. Our prices didn't peak until 6 months ago, and have been flat since, with listings actually dropping through the winter.http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace...valuesspring07/Note that it hasn't been updated since early March... because March and April were UGLY!!!! Our pop just started withn the last few months. Many haven't noticed yet.This is just the rest of the country starting to arrive where you've been for the last year.I made a big real estate deal a few years ago, and at the time, all anyone ever talked about was the impending real estate bubble. If there is anyone who hasn't heard about it yet, it's gotta be the same people who smoke because they hadn't heard that cigarettes cause cancer.When everyone is this afraid, there isn't far to fall. Unless, of course, you base your major financial decisions on 6-month timeframes. But if you do that, you don't have much money anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 It's fun being in Michigan where the outside grows and we just get weaker...Stories leaked out that houses in some parts of Detroit are going for less than a new car. All over Michagan are weak, but if you can't sell a house for $20K... Darn... Just darn Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 When everyone is this afraid, there isn't far to fall. Unless, of course, you base your major financial decisions on 6-month timeframes. But if you do that, you don't have much money anyway.Except that housing is way up, and hasn't fallen yet.Seriously, maybe some parts of the country have been hearing about the pop for months or years, but here, it was all ahead full until last summer when we started to hear that prices may be flat for a few months. NO ONE is yet talking about prices fallin gback to where they were 3 years ago.Housing Affordability Index is stll at 75 for exisintg homes. That is unsustainable.And, no one I talk to about this has a clue. Around here it is all "sounds like this summer will be a great time to buy". We're still affordable compared to CA. Hey people... This is no CA. Look out your window. Instead of tree coverd hills and nice beaches, you have dirt, sand and cactus. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Except that housing is way up, and hasn't fallen yet.Seriously, maybe some parts of the country have been hearing about the pop for months or years, but here, it was all ahead full until last summer when we started to hear that prices may be flat for a few months. NO ONE is yet talking about prices fallin gback to where they were 3 years ago.Housing Affordability Index is stll at 75 for exisintg homes. That is unsustainable.And, no one I talk to about this has a clue. Around here it is all "sounds like this summer will be a great time to buy". We're still affordable compared to CA. Hey people... This is no CA. Look out your window. Instead of tree coverd hills and nice beaches, you have dirt, sand and cactus.Well, maybe your friends are a bit out of touch.... Money magazine has been running "The End Of Real Estate" articles for at least two years, and there are stories in the newspaper every couple months about it for that same long. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/propertyglut_1.html"Since March, the market appears to have deteriorated further in many parts of the country. Reports from builders show that sales in the past few weeks "have really plunged," says Ivy Zelman, a Cleveland-based housing analyst for Credit Suisse Group. She says prices of new homes also are falling as tighter credit eliminates some potential buyers and builders struggle to shed excess inventory. Lenders, stung by a surge in defaults, have rediscovered the virtues of caution over the past few months, eliminating many of their no-money-down loan offerings. That tightening is "really starting to bite," says Ed Mixon, a real-estate agent for Re/Max Real Estate Services in Monarch Beach, Calif. "Anything we saw up until now is small potatoes compared to the drop we see now that they've FINALLY shut off the spigot of $0 down loans!Since mid-April, it is a whole new ball game. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 Well, maybe your friends are a bit out of touch.... Money magazine has been running "The End Of Real Estate" articles for at least two years, and there are stories in the newspaper every couple months about it for that same long.Simple question, and I'm hoping for a straight answer.Are those stories of the "looks like flat market for a few months" type stories.OR"We're looking at massive price reductions in areas that saw big run-ups, with prices unlikely to return to prior levels for a decade or more" type stories. Link to post Share on other sites
aadams_22 3 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Welcome to 9 months ago...but I think its just a minor correction.The economy as a whole is thriving right now...just look at the records the stock market has been setting.a strong stock market doesn't always equal a strong economyTake a look around...the economy is in the shitter. Wasted dollars being spent in Iraq. Factories closing down daily. More and more homes are up for foreclosure. Gas is back up to the $3.00 range. People are getting screwed on their utility bills. Many new road projects across the country are being put on the back burner due to lack of money. Add all of that to everything that WrongWay said. It's far from thriving. Link to post Share on other sites
kers2 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 WrongWay, you dont scare me with your big words and your witchcraft Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 must be short some REIT'sI laughedWrongWay, you dont scare me with your big words and your witchcraftTwice Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 FYP I know you are one of the top two players in your house...that's for sure Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Simple question, and I'm hoping for a straight answer.Are those stories of the "looks like flat market for a few months" type stories.OR"We're looking at massive price reductions in areas that saw big run-ups, with prices unlikely to return to prior levels for a decade or more" type stories.Most of the stories I saw were somewhere in between the two. The latter type of story is totally unrealistic. The housing market doesn't crash like other investments because a house is not just an investment; it's a place to live, a status symbol, a dream. Stocks and things are purely about the money.So anyone who is predicting a drop that won't recover for 10 years is nuts. That's rare even in the stock market. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 So anyone who is predicting a drop that won't recover for 10 years is nuts. That's rare even in the stock market.Maybe you're right....http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/...eon_graph2.htmlOr maybe not.....20% run ups above the norm in 1970s and 1980s took a decade to get back to inflation adjusted levels. This 86% above the norm is going to take WAY longer. Good point. I was nuts to say a decade. I should have said NEVER to be reached, ever again on an "adjusted for inflation" basis. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 30, 2007 Author Share Posted April 30, 2007 I supposed I would have been nuts back in 2000 to talk about a drop in the S&P 500 that would take a decade to recover. Only 6 years later. Hmm... that high of 1370-ish reach back in Feb 2001. Well, adjusted for infaltion that would be 1550-ish today. Let's check, 1482. Nope. 6 years, and not back yet.Or the NASDAQ. That was nothing but up, up and up. New economy and all.Oh... you can't really compare today's NASDAQ to 2001 becasue too many companies that used to be in the NASDAQ are long ago delisted. Gone, poof, history. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted May 1, 2007 Author Share Posted May 1, 2007 Back when the tech bubble finally popped, people told me to stop talking about it because I was making it worse....Please. The fundamentals made it inevitable. Talking about the pop could not make it worse, but may have helped some get out before the bottom.Ditto housing. The massive run up above a level supported by the fundamentals has made a collapse inevatable. Fewer people can get in than are getting out by choice or not by choice, while more inventory is still being added at a near record pace.The die is cast, and no amount of sticking your head in the sand, and asking other to do the same, can stop it. People deserve to know what is going on to get out or stay out, though it may already be too late for most. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,353 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 So, then, I guess my next question is.. once the bubble pops, and the markets start dropping, dropping droppping.. how will we know when it hits bottom? How long do you suspect it will take for it to hit bottom? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 geesh,shut up already WrongWay. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,353 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I don't get why everyone is telling this guy to shut up.. I think this thread is amazing and informative, and I can't believe anyone would want him to shut up about it... Is it because many of you have bought overpriced houses you can't afford, and are about to lose your ***, and want to keep your heads buried in the sand? Because I can't possibly think of a rational reason why people would want him to talk less about this issue. If you don't like the topic, stay out of the thread. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I don't get why everyone is telling this guy to shut up.. I think this thread is amazing and informative, and I can't believe anyone would want him to shut up about it... Is it because many of you have bought overpriced houses you can't afford, and are about to lose your ***, and want to keep your heads buried in the sand? Because I can't possibly think of a rational reason why people would want him to talk less about this issue. If you don't like the topic, stay out of the thread.I love you. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I don't get why everyone is telling this guy to shut up.. I think this thread is amazing and informative, and I can't believe anyone would want him to shut up about it... Is it because many of you have bought overpriced houses you can't afford, and are about to lose your ***, and want to keep your heads buried in the sand? Because I can't possibly think of a rational reason why people would want him to talk less about this issue. If you don't like the topic, stay out of the thread.alarmists annoy me.But you make a good point. Link to post Share on other sites
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