What Was That Sound?

[WrongWay 0]

Historically high price increases (good news) = end of the worldHistorically high foreclosure rates (bad news) = end of the world.So for you, both record good news and record bad news = end of the world. In your view, the record good news cannot continue, but the record bad news can. Interesting.I think we are finding out more about your worldview than about any market conditions.

1) Prices are no longer going up. That is history. That was good as it happend as it allowed people to get access to equity credit so they could spend above their means. I'm talking about here forward. In most areas, prices are flat to down in a saturated market. In some areas, down a lot. And, the latest big development is the credit cruch, that is expected to take 10-30% of potential buyers out of the market. That means falling prices and shrinking equity. If rising prices are good, than what are flat or falling prices in comparison?2) I'm not predicting the end of the world. I'm predicting that house prices will fall to their fundamental support levels based on cost of construction, cost of rent, and ability of people to afford them. Where I live, that is 20-30%, maybe 40%. Your milage will vary based on how far above suport levels your market is.If that is "the end of the world" to you, than I think we're learning a lot about your current real estate position.

[WrongWay 0]

Here is an interesting read.http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3418mbs_losses.htmlBasically, people could get loans that they had no chance of ever paying, because every link in the chain felt isolated from risk. The brokers passed the risk to processors. Processors passed the risk to Mortgage Backed Securities purchers. MBS purchasers were protected by their ability to kick back non-conforming. There were fees and controls built into the system to ensure everyone made money and everyone was protected... assuming an ever rising housing market.But, the prices did stop going up and people started gettng foreclosed on. The processors kicked the bills to the MBS buyers. The MBS buyers kicked them back to the brokers. The brokers... Well, for awhile they could cover their losses by making more and more, worse and worse loans. But eventually, the treadmill got too mast, and they fell off (went bankrupt). Now, the processors are getting hit by the fees that the MBS buyers were promised. The MBS buyers are taking hits becasue they can't get their money from the brokers.Where was all that MBS money coming from? Overseas! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5yTrade deficits exploded and we were funding it by atracting foreign money into the MBS market. When the market popped, that money stopped flowing in, and the dollar started to drop. So, now the fed, wanting to save the dollar, is scrambling to get foreign money back into U.S. markets. How, make the MBS safe again. How? Well, they proposed a bailout, but that was shot down. So, the FHA, Fanie Mae and Fredie Mac are trying to keep the liquidity going. But their tens of billions are drops compared to the trillions of the problem.Pop. Falling dollar. Inflation preasure. Higher interest rates. Recession.

[mk 11]

Here is an interesting read.http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3418mbs_losses.html

Oh, you're a Larouchey. This thread makes a lot of sense now.

[WrongWay 0]

Oh, you're a Larouchey. This thread makes a lot of sense now.

A what?

[hblask 1]

2) I'm not predicting the end of the world. I'm predicting that house prices will fall to their fundamental support levels based on cost of construction, cost of rent, and ability of people to afford them. Where I live, that is 20-30%, maybe 40%. Your milage will vary based on how far above suport levels your market is.

Here, I have some insider information, too. I predict that in the long run, housing prices will be set by supply and demand. ACT NOW!

[LongLiveYorke 38]

What do you guys think? I'm looking at this place in the middle of Manhattan. The house itself is only okay, but it's in a great area. They say the three most important parts of real estate are location, location, location, right? It's going for about 1.5 million, but I think I can talk them down to around 1.45. So, do you think that the price is inflated and about to crash? Let me know.

[hblask 1]

What do you guys think? I'm looking at this place in the middle of Manhattan. The house itself is only okay, but it's in a great area. They say the three most important parts of real estate are location, location, location, right? It's going for about 1.5 million, but I think I can talk them down to around 1.45. So, do you think that the price is inflated and about to crash? Let me know.

It depends on whether huggles with the current occupant is included in the price.

[WrongWay 0]

Another "the-sky-is-falling" nutjob talking about the state of San Diego's housing market."Gary London, who heads San Diego's London Group Realty Advisors, said that even though there has been a large increase in foreclosures, the total is still not a big number, given the size of the San Diego market. “The bigger number is the people who are on the edge right now – getting help from their parents to pay off their mortgage, or forgoing vacations and cutting back on expenses to make ends meet,” he said. London said that if home prices decline sharply or the housing slump lasts a long time, those people may not be able to get out from under their mortgages. “Then, all bets are off,” he said."I'm just a computer programmer that has a lot of co-workers trying to be real estat mogol, just like back in the late 90s when everyone was becoing a stock broker.Hey MK, what do you do for a living? hblask, how about you?

[kers2 0]

THERES NO NEED TO HAVE ANY FEAR, IN A BEAR MARKET THERE'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE NASDAQ TRADING!!!

[Dirtydutch 8]

What do you guys think? I'm looking at this place in the middle of Manhattan. The house itself is only okay, but it's in a great area. They say the three most important parts of real estate are location, location, location, right? It's going for about 1.5 million, but I think I can talk them down to around 1.45. So, do you think that the price is inflated and about to crash? Let me know.

"I can't believe they threw me out like that. I must have been really acting like a jerk.""Yeah, but everybody's a jerk. You, me, this jerk [points at some random guy]. That's my philosophy. So, where you gonna' stay?""I don't know. Do refrigerators still come in cardboard boxes?""Yeah, but the rents are outrageous."

[hblask 1]

Another "the-sky-is-falling" nutjob talking about the state of San Diego's housing market."Gary London, who heads San Diego's London Group Realty Advisors, said that even though there has been a large increase in foreclosures, the total is still not a big number, given the size of the San Diego market. “The bigger number is the people who are on the edge right now – getting help from their parents to pay off their mortgage, or forgoing vacations and cutting back on expenses to make ends meet,” he said. London said that if home prices decline sharply or the housing slump lasts a long time, those people may not be able to get out from under their mortgages. “Then, all bets are off,” he said."I'm just a computer programmer that has a lot of co-workers trying to be real estat mogol, just like back in the late 90s when everyone was becoing a stock broker.Hey MK, what do you do for a living? hblask, how about you?

You do realize that the more of these quotes you post, the more you undermine your argument that this is some secret news flash known to the privileged few?Oh, and I'm a computer programmer, too.

[Actuary 3]

WrongWaywhat is your motive?Please answer this question.Please.I scanning what you are writing and am not arguing it's truth; I just have no idea why you are going on and on?PleaseYou are a nobody here, why the sudden interest in warning us?We get it.Personally, I'm not in denialI just bought a house the othe day. Fixed Mortg this time. 25% of my Gross, no other debt. And that's not including my wifes income.It's just fascinating that you care so much.Please address your motivation to inform us!

[Balloon guy 158]

Thats only because the very rich are getting even richer. The middle class in this country is getting squeezed.Who gives a fukk about brazillionaries?!?

Divorce attorneys

[kers2 0]

THE ONLY WAY TO MAKE THIS WORK IS INSIDER TRADING! GIVE INFORMATION TO PEOPLE, BUT DONT TELL THE PUBLIC!SYNERGY IS FOR FAGGOTS!

[leftygolfer 7]

THE ONLY WAY TO MAKE THIS WORK IS INSIDER TRADING! GIVE INFORMATION TO PEOPLE, BUT DONT TELL THE PUBLIC!SYNERGY IS FOR FAGGOTS!

Sell Mortimer Sell

[mk 11]

Hey MK, what do you do for a living? hblask, how about you?

i'm a bond trader.

[WrongWay 0]

WrongWaywhat is your motive?Please answer this question.Please.

Absolutly none other than trying to make people aware of what is happening, and what is going to happen.I'm not short in any home builders. I'm not in the industry. I have absolutely ZERO motive other than making people wake up and face the truth.It seems EVERY day I come into contact with some idiot talking about buying a house now that prices and incentives are so good, or talking about selling for what it was worth at the peak without a clue, or taking thier house off the market to rent it out for a year or two until the market recovers.I just want to make people WAKE UP and smell the coffee. Check the fundamentals in your area. Check the housing affordability index, check the price of construction, check the rents and compare to what the house payment would be to buy it. THOSE metrics, not what Zillow says or what the house next to you sold for or what a realtor told you they cold find a appraisal for... Two years from now, the fundamentals will be dictating what your house is worth. If your market is way above fundamental support level, then your prices are going to go nothing but down!WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!That as my one and only motivation.The better question, why NOT talk about it? You see poeple drowning, and think you might be able to help a few, why NOT through out a life preserver?

[WrongWay 0]

Today's news...From Baltimore: http://www.examiner.com/a-706034~Devalued_..._borrowers.html"I had to refinance to save my home, but when they dropped my appraisal by $100,000, I was floored.”From Springfield, Ohio: http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/hp/conte...losuretoll.htmlSue Smedley, owner of Real Estate II, said one of the area's biggest problems is the "upside-down" house, meaning owners owe more than the house is worth. She said this happens with almost one out of two homes her agents are called to list. From VA, outside DC:http://www.timescommunity.com/site/tab1.cf...06035&rfi=6"Newton's advice? "Sellers, be realistic at what you price at," adding that the days of free-wheeling house-flipping two and three years ago are nothing but a distant memory."I don't think that is coming back anytime soon," she said. "I'm not even sure what that was."My answer:That was criminal mortgage fraud based on super inflated appraisals which allowed illegal cash-back deals.Cincinatti:http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art...IZ01/704290355/"Take my house ... please!Listings rise, prices fall; sellers feel buyers' power"From Florida:http://www.bradenton.com/186/story/37881.html"Lenders have filed 573 foreclosure actions in Manatee County Circuit Court through the first four months of 2007, including a record 156 in April alone, according to the Manatee County Clerk of Court's Office. At that pace, the county's annual foreclosure-filing record - 901, set in 2002 - could fall as early as mid-July."http://www.bradenton.com/186/story/37881.html"A record number of homeowners who can't sell condominiums and houses are competing for tenants with the country's biggest apartment owners "And these resutls are mostly from before the $0 down stopped, killing access to cash that has kept the bubble slowly deflating. Sub-prime going pop, with Alt-A also requiring considerable equity, is really the game changer. It takes away the last of the fools that were still entering the market, and it makes it MUCH harder to commit fraud.Anything from this point forward is way worse than the bloodbath that was the first quarter.

[WrongWay 0]

How smart are those people that are making all these financial decision?Here is what an insider thinks of them,'Option ARMs? Devaney loves 'em. "The consumer has to be an idiot to take on those loans," he says. "But it has been one of our best-performing investments."''Look, for example, at the financial Frankenstein's monster known as the collateralized debt obligation, or CDO. Brought to life in the 1990s, the CDO helped solve a knotty problem for lenders. They were often left holding a small amount of loans that were too dodgy to sell to investors at an attractive price.But what if you grouped the payments from all those risky mortgages together, along with some other investments, and you sold some investors the right to be the first ones to get paid?This would look like a relatively safe investment, and so - voilà! - you've transformed a risky loan into a triple-A rated security. Other investors would be farther back in line and might not get paid if things went badly. But you could offer those investors very high yields, so that hedge funds and pension funds would roll the dice. This set the whole mortgage-bond sector on fire. Banks rushed to make mortgages - any kind of mortgages. Lousy credit? No problem. Can't prove your income? No problem. Can't pay more than 1 percent now? No problem.'Let's make this poker relative.Buying a house with $0 down was a freeroll! You buy the house. If it goes up, you win big. If it goes down, you have no skin in the game, so you walk away with nothing more than a foreclosure on your record. Oh, the mortgage lender can file suit against you, but if you have nothing, good luck collecting.WORSE, this made mortgages RIPE for fraud. Buy 6 houses for $30K each over market, take the $30K cash back on each, hide the $180K and walk away. $180K, TAX FREE!!!!! There are SO MANY of these, they'll never be able to track down and prosecute all of them.Or better... Find a shell buyer to buy the house for you. "Hey Joe Sucker. I want to flip a house, but I'm already in so many deals that I can't run another one on my name. Let me use your name and credit report. I'll give you $2000. You sign the mortgage papers. I already have a buyer lined up. He'll buy it back off you in less than a month, before you even have to make a payment." You agree to receive a few thousand dollars to sign a few papers. The scammer takes tens of thousands back at closing without your knowledge, and you never hear from him again. You're stuck with a house that YOU now owe way more on than it is worth. AND, you're guilty of fraud.With $0 down, no-documentation mortgages they were BEGGING people to run freerolls and commit fraud.Oh, look, a "the-sky-is-falling" nutjob is a staff writer as Money Magiine."But the risk is that this will happen so fast that we'll see a vicious circle develop: Falling home prices mean less credit, and less credit means fewer buyers and, hence, falling home prices. That could make a housing recovery that much harder to come by."Recovery? You mean "house prices back at historically insane high levels that were possible only with insanely stupid lending" (i.e. the prices they were selling for last month before the nutjobs on Wall Street finally got around to closing the barn doors) or does recovery simply mean "they stop falling like a rock before they return to fundamentally sound levels". Yeah, I'd say recovery, using either definition, will be hard to come by.

[WrongWay 0]

Oh, check out this "the-sky-is-falling" nut job!!!!http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estat...eymag/index.htm"Money Magaine) -- Robert Shiller is worried about your home's value, and that's not good. A finance and economics professor at Yale, Shiller proved he could see a crash coming with his book "Irrational Exuberance," which forecast the end of the 1990s stock bubble and hit bookstores in March 2000 - almost to the day the Nasdaq started to collapse. Today, Shiller believes homes are roughly as overvalued as stocks were then and, once again, he's worth listening to."Oh look... A DECADE OR MORE!!!"Question: Let me grab a calculator. If real estate really rose 10 percent a year, a $25,000 home in 1957 should be worth roughly $3 million now. Answer: And that flies in the face of common sense. In fact, I'm inclined to think there's a good chance that the return on real estate will be negative, substantially negative, over the next 10 years because all booms reverse in the end."HA, HA, HA, HA.... What a complete nutjob!!!!! Does he really expect anyone to take him seriously!Sure, when stocks were 50% (or more like 600% for NASDAQ) or more overvalued, anyone could call a top. But housing is different... It may be 80+% overvalued, but it could never implode.

[hblask 1]

Please share more of this secret insider information that only you know about and nobody else has taken into account in their decisions. The first hundred publicly available links didn't convince us yet that it is truly secret.

[WrongWay 0]

Please share more of this secret insider information that only you know about and nobody else has taken into account in their decisions. The first hundred publicly available links didn't convince us yet that it is truly secret.

It isn't a secret... Just too many people still in denial. Too many stories out there quoting realtors and home builders saying the bottom is only a few months away. Flip on CNBC and you'll hear 20 debates between people saying it is a train wreck in the making and others saying were near bottom. Makes poeple think that either opinion is equally justifiable.Fact is, the "this is a train wreck" people can prodcuce tons of stats, and the 3 months from the bottom people have a vested interest in getting you out to buy a home while there is still a chance for them to make a commission off you".What is your problem with me talking about this? Talking about it does not change the fundamentals... Sharply rising supply, sharply falling demand, prices way above the support levels....How does me talking about this hurt anyone.... Oh, except the people that are at the table that hope they can find some sucker to come take their place.All-you-can-eat... $1. First people there get all the food. Last people there get teh doors locked behind them and get to pay the bill for everyone else. Are you hoping a few more will come in to pay the bill?

[kers2 0]

The point is, NO ONE CARES. No one is responding to you "in denial", or sitting on the edge of our seats asking for more... you're just shoving it down our throats

[Actuary 3]

this is really weird.who does this?seriously.who does this?

[Loismustdie 0]

bring on the pop... I'm 26, starting to make some serious $$$ at work and looking to buy soon.

Hell yes.