quiz question #8

[sixclubcult 0]

Not knowing his chip stack might make this inaccurate, but it just seems like he's committed to much to the pot already to move him off the hand. I don't think he'd be pounding that hard with a king high flush and with the other hearts that are out makes me think he doesn't have a flush. 9-9 is my guess. I don't think you can get him to fold so you almost have to.

[Big-Ern777 0]

I'm just curious as to what his hand may be, but a fold here I believe is the correct play. To me just him having the A of hearts here (which would be the best case scenario as just a pair of Js without a heart or low heart is making a huge mistake if he's check-raising rather than immediately raising at the flop) would be really overly aggressive as you could have a pair of Js or two-pair and the K of clubs certainly wouldn't be that much of a scare card as it doesn't seem as though he's banking on drawing a straight if he's check-rasing that flop. I think most likely he has AA, with or without the Ace of hearts (most likely with) or the small flush. Either way you're dominated thus far and do not need to risk your chips any further.

[Guest]

I have questions...1. Is this guy too aggressive?2. Is he the type that would push hard to try and steal?3. Would he push hard while being scared?4. Is he good enough to lay down a great hand?First, I would have raised alot more than 3x bb. Atleast make it 250 to let people know you are serious and to chase out the BB that could have anything if he is playing loose. This was the first mistake IMO. The second mistake comes on the flop. You either push all in or you fold after the check raise. You do not call. You are either ahead or practically drawing dead to his AKs unless you suck out runner runner.Post flop with his check raise...I conservatively lay it down and wait for a better spot. These tournaments have blinds increasing every 90 minutes. That is forever to catch fat hands that you know you are going to win as opposed to this scenario where your risk/reward ratio is not that great.This early in the tourney...why risk it? You could be drawing dead post turn.

[Johnsears 0]

First, I would have raised alot more than 3x bb. Atleast make it 250 to let people know you are serious and to chase out the BB that could have anything if he is playing loose. This was the first mistake IMO.

I have to disagree. In a tournament if I get the feeling someone has a monster hand I will call very large raises preflop with trashy hands because I know if I hit a random 2 pair or straight there is a good chance I can take their whole stack.

[ariston 0]

I have given this a lot of thought and I still stand by my first instinct of allin. It doesnt matter about pot odds IMO when you put his tournament on the line, He could be drawing to a dead pair up if you have top set and he has 99- If he has top set he could already be behind to the flush. It would help I admit to know the other guys stack size and even who the other player is (is he good enough to laydown a set here? Is he the sort to survive or is he trying to win the event?). As I said earlier if your read is correct and he calls you still have plenty of outs. The call is an option many people have automatically ruled out because it would certainly worry him-"what hand could he be calling with?". Again this would come down to what "type" of player your opponent is -is he the sort to push on the river whatever falls? Against certain players call is the best option as it gives you chance to outplay him on the river if the board changes or if he checks. A smallish milking type bet on the river would surely scream at him thats hes beat if the board doesnt change. Folding is not an option here as there are too many chances you can take the pot off him, either now or on the river.ariston

[jooka 0]

It doesnt matter about pot odds IMO when you put his tournament on the line

since we are only getting to know what he's bet and what our stack is, how do you know you're putting his tournament on the line? As far as we know it would be our ass on the line, which is partially why I havent made my vote yet. Its a crucial piece of info I dont think I can vote without knowing.(at least in my mind it is)

[nitrolife 0]

As I said earlier if your read is correct and he calls you still have plenty of outs.

But none of your outs are the nuts....then you face a tougher decision next bet....even IF you hit.

Against certain players call is the best option as it gives you chance to outplay him on the river if the board changes or if he checks.

A call could never be your best option. He is highly HIGHLY unlikely to lay it down for the price. You would need a tight passive player to lay it down....they don't make the bets that were made in this hand.

A smallish milking type bet on the river would surely scream at him thats hes beat if the board doesnt change. Folding is not an option here as there are too many chances you can take the pot off him, either now or on the river.ariston

A milking raise would get you put allin before you can blink. You can not be cutesy or show weakness in this scenario....and if you miss, you have precisely zero chances to take the pot off of him.

[ariston 0]

Ok i take the milking raise comment back. If you go allin and get called you gave no deision to make whatever comes. If your read is correct (daniel does play alot on his reads) it doesnt matter that none of your outs are nut outs- you will still have outs to win. I think a reraise here will do the job and take the pot though.

[vaglvr 0]

i'm definitely going against the grain, but i push all-in.1. if he has AJ with the ace of hearts, or any nut flush draw besides AK and AA, your pair of queens is good.2. if he has a set, you have a strong draw for higher set, straight, or flush. 14 outs with two cards to come.3. this seems like an ideal flop to attempt a bluff-check-raise.4. you might make him fold if he's on a bluff or uncomfortable with his set/draw, but you're also comfortable with a call.5. i realize that it's early, but daniel's not one to play scared money. if he busts, fine, but this is an ideal situation to double up early and accumulate chips.6. this hand came up in reno, it's in daniel's blog. he called and folded when the river came no help, and i think he feels that he should have pushed.7. it sets a nice aggressive + fearless table image for you if you win or make him fold, especially if you show him the hand after you fold.all-in.aseemp.s. this very much reminds me of the NL cash game hand i posted, though pot odds are more relevant in my hand whereas tournament strategy is more relevant here. can't wait to see daniel's answer to this quiz, i think it'll be applicable to my post as well.

I immediatlely thought of your hand you posted in the strategy section. I hope your calculations are correct i went with you on this one.....

[Erudis 0]

I think a reraise here will do the job and take the pot though.

not a chance the opponent is folding to an all-in here, daniel doesn't have enough chips to move anyone off this pot (regardless of opponents chip-stack: if he has daniel covered it's right to call, if he doesn't it's right to call). i've said this earlier, if you go all-in here it can only be because you think you have the best hand. daniel said that he is pretty sure that he does not have the best hand. All-in is not an option here.

[elkang 0]

I said fold because it is a WPT event. It is your tournament life at stake and your hand is not a favorite - though I wish I had realized this and folded at the flop check raise.I don't like an all in here unless you could have done it first. Damn BB taking away your thunder!If this was one of the tourneys I usually enter, I'm much more inclinded to think my opponent had AJ or possible small flush from the BB, so I would call. Also, I like playing the cash games after tourneys - so I'm inclined to go out or near double up. Try to go for a check-check on river but unless an Ace comes up I'm calling or going all-in. Does this make me suck?

[Big-Ern777 0]

One thing I want to add here...We can obviously rule out the Ace high flush as his turn bet signifies that he will go all-in and that he wants you out of the hand before the river. To me this is a slight sign of weakness where the very worst situation you could be facing is AA with the A of hearts which has you drawing to 5 outs. The key factor to the hand is that he does indeed want you gone by the turn which signifies that we couldn't be too dominated here and the fact that he will call an all-in with that committed bet shows he has several outs. AJ without a heart:No way in hell can I see him making a call-able check-raise with this hand at the flop so I'm ruling this one out. AJ with the A of hearts:This hand does make the most logical sense with the way he's been betting and would have him drawing to 13 outs which makes pushing in at the turn obvioulsy correct. The low flush:This has us drawing to 7 outs by the turn and at this point we'd have no choice but to fold. The question in hand is, why would he attempt to check/raise with a low flush at the flop rather than immediately come out betting large as a simple check runs the risk of the table getting a free turn card that may give either player a higher flush.The Set:This has us drawing to 14 outs and I believe would be a good oppurtunity to put tournament life on the line and push in. I'd also like to add that like the low flush, the set check-raising here with a medium bet and an all heart board and no heart in his hand would be way too risky and unlikely of a play. I'm ruling this one out as well and if he did happen to play it like that he made a mistake by not defensively betting his hand right away. AA/KK with a heart:This is the danger hand that you have to watch out for as it has you drawing to 5/3 outs by the turn. You have to ask yourself whether or not he would limp early in the tournament by simply smooth calling your raise with another player in the hand preflop. Logically he probably didn't limp and most likely he doesn't have this hand, but there is not enough evidence to rule it out as the way in which he bet does match this hand.2 out of 4 of those hands in my opinion are justifiable to push all-in with the given odds and I decided with the given circumstances to rule out the low flush and the set which in my mind makes pushing in a simple decision as AA or KK with the ace/king of hearts is really the only hand that's a killer on us and I believe he has something like the AJ with the Ace of hearts.Normally I would argue that you don't need to risk your stack this early in a very marginal situation, but a lot of chips are up for offer and since my style is aggressive and strategy is gaining a large stack early, I feel that doubling up here puts you in a great position early in the tournament. I'd also like to add that my read on the AJ with a heart is a confident one and the main motive behind the play. My hat is off to Gavin though if he did have AA or KK with a heart. Brilliantly played.

[DCWildcat 0]

hes got AA, all i need is a 10 or a Q, 6 outs, ive done worse

LOLI disagree with some of others, I don't think you would be able to move many players off this hand. There's just too much in the pot, odds aren't good.

[Big-Ern777 0]

hes got AA, all i need is a 10 or a Q, 6 outs, ive done worse

5 outs if one of the Aces is a heart. The way he played the hand from preflop to the turn it's more likely than he does not have AA or KK though.

[lz01 0]

That offers him at least 1:3 odds to call depending on his stack. with a set, a small flush he will call without any doubt, 2 pairs are too good to fold also, because on the board he may think you have wide range of hands that he had you beaten. A J is clearly fold. So you may got 75% sure that you will get called and go to river as a big dog. the risk/reward ratio is horrendous.

[Woodsman 0]

I know these questions are supposed to stimulate our thought process and create open discussion. So there is usually a twist and what appears to be the obvious is not neccessarily the correct play. There are a couple of questions that I would consider. How much of a stack does my opponent have. How much time till this level of blinds increases. (Even if i lost half my stack the blinds are still reasonable that I can make it back) The large bet on the turn appears to be a either a bluff for the flush or perhaps over betting to protect top pair or lesser hand from a straight or flush draw. Everyone's style of play or strategy is different for day one of a tounament. My style would lead me to not get my stack so commited early on especially when I feel I am beat and there are a lot of hands that beat me but only a couple that I dominate. You would need to get a read on the guy pushing his checks in. Based on the read you may go against what the cards are telling you and play the person rather than the board. There are enough outs for this hand that if you do decide to commit to the pot and call or raise back that you have a chance. But do you want to gamble here or pick a spot when you have much more confidence. I personally would fold trust my instincts and find a better place to make a move.

[semaj550 0]

I make him sweat it out and then throw my cards into the muck.If he has 2 pair I've got quite few outs to work with. With my overpair I just need the board to pair (without filling his boat), another Q to hit, or a T or to hit. So I've got 6 outs (3 to each of the two community cards he isn't holding) plus 2 to a Q, plus 4 to a T and 6 hearts (that aren't a K or T). 18/46 to draw here...not being laid good enough odds to draw. Especially not when I'm effectively gambling my tournament life here. If he's made trips I'm in a world of hurt and if I made that read I fold without even thinking.If he's got A:heart:J I'm gonna let him have the pot, but that might jsut be my style of play. The only play against this hand is to reraise all-in and he's very likely to make the call giving him 13 outs on the river (3 to the A, 2 to a J and 8 to a ). I'm only a 2 to 1 favorite here and despite being laid about 2 to 1 I'm not usually willing to gamble my entire tournament on an even money proposition this early when I don't need the chips (desperately).Now if he's all ready got the small flush I've got 7 outs on the river and I sure as hell am not going to make any play here.If these are his possible holdings playing this hand just doesn't look to be a good play. Make him sweat to make him think twice about trying to bully you in the future and move on to the next hand.

[kevinoc85 0]

If you are so confident the opponent has you beat, why even bother calling after the reraise on the flop. If another heart comes and he moves all in, it's a tough call considering he might have been semi-bluffing with the ace high flush draw. If he has a set, theres only 2 outs to catch a higher set. It seems like an easy fold. But I'm anxious to see what DN has to say.

[ariston 0]

If he has a set you dont just have the 2 outs to make a bigger set, uou have the str8 outs and flush outs too. It is a bad call for him to make if he does have a set or 2 pair thats why I stand with my first instinct of allin. If your read is correct you will either win the pot there and then or you will have virtually the correct odds to make a winning hand. To live in these events you have to be willing to die (dont know whose quote that is- sorry)ariston

[Erudis 0]

willing to die, but not wanting to... which is what is gonna happen if you call the bet or move all in

[kevinoc85 0]

If he has a set you dont just have the 2 outs to make a bigger set, uou have the str8 outs and flush outs too. It is a bad call for him to make if he does have a set or 2 pair thats why I stand with my first instinct of allin. If your read is correct you will either win the pot there and then or you will have virtually the correct odds to make a winning hand. To live in these events you have to be willing to die (dont know whose quote that is- sorry)ariston

you're right about the flush and straight outs. but I still think folding is correct if he has a set. the king of hearts is a dead flush card if he has a set. if he has two pair then you have added outs because his unpaired cards can give you a higher two pair.

[flintsword 4]

It's day one of a WPT event and you have your chips up to about 11,100 from it's original 10,000. The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q Q and make it 150 to go. The button calls as does the big blind. The flop comes: J 9 2 and the big blind checks to you. You bet 400 and the button calls. The big blind now check raises you to 1900, 1500 more. You call and the button folds. The turn card comes the K and your opponent bets 5500. You now have a flush draw as well as a straight draw. Based on what you know of the player you are quite sure that you are up against two pair, trips, A J, or possibly a very small flush. The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand. What would you do?

So according to your read (Quizz #8 conditions), you have dismissed the player making his str8 ("the K doesn't scare you at all"), meaning the BB would have folded preflop with QT when you raised 150. The hands you seem to be allowing the BB to call the 150 preflop raise are: suited connectors, A J, KJ, J9, and pairs. Since the BB is deemed to fold QT, I'll rule J9 out. You are not worried about the K (as per your Quizz #8 conditions) so I'll rule out KJ. Left with the BB holding connectors suited in hearts (making a flush), A J, JJ, 99, 22.(1) If you are facing a small flush (No A or K )Calculate the odds of making your flush as 7 out of 45 or 15.6%. The button folded two cards that were either big cards (no hearts or they might have bet) or a pair (one heart maximum) so the odds can be modified but do not change a lot. (2) If you are facing a setCalculate the odds of not making a flush, not hitting another queen, and not making your str8.Since the BB has a set, you have 52 - 4 - 2 - 2 =44 possible cards.(44 possible cards available - 9 hearts - 2 queens - 3 non-heart tens)/44 possible cards = 30/44 = 68.2%.Therefore your chances of making your flush or a set of queens is 31.8%.(3)If you are facing two pair (the BB does not hold KJ)Calculate the odds of not pairing any cards and not hitting another queen.Since you are examining the case where the BB has two pair, the number of "pairing cards" this time is 12 - 2 = 10, not 4 x 3 = 12. Since the BB has two pair, you have 52 - 4 - 2 - 2 = 44 possible cards.(44 possible cards available - 10 pairing cards - 2 queens)/44 possible cards = 32/44 = 72.7%.Therefore your chances of pairing the flop + turn or hitting a Queen is 27.3%.(4) If you are facing A JCalculate the odds of not hitting another heart or an Ace.Since you put the BB on A J, you hold the Q , and the button folded at least one non heart, you have 52 - 4 - 1 -2 -2 = 43 possible cards and there are 13 - 5 = 8 hearts left in the deck.(43 possible cards available - 8 hearts - 3 Aces)/43 = 32/43 = 74.4%.Therefore your chances of winning against A J is 74.4%From the math, you are a dog to make a winning hand.I am itching to make a full breakdown of this hand but I will take my chances and post this as is. Hope my math holds up!This is a folding situation and still early in the tournament, so I voted fold.flintsword

[HtotheNootch 0]

This is a tough one - I probably would have moved in on the flop.

[Uppie_ 0]

seems simple to me your telling your self you are beat and it is super early on in a long tourament fold and leave your self with a lot of bullets and tons of time to improve your stack i really don't think you can call because your basically hoping and praying, and why not trust you instints and move on. And if you miss you have 3k or so in chips agianst a feild that has 10k or more on average, and note this feild is some of the best poker players in the world not exactly the company i want to be way behind in chips too trying to scape and claw my way back just doesn't sound like a good plan to me. allin seems bold and you probably do have some outs and if your a gambling style player well it is you style and go for it, i just think there will be a much better time to gamble then that one.

[kerplunk 0]

Wow. This question intrigued me enough to finally get me to register and make my first post. This feels like such an ovious fold to me that I'm beginning to wonder if i'm not seeing something. If Daniel answers that either call or all-in is best hear, it will certainly surprise me, but it'll at least confirm that I definitely don't think along the same lines as DN. I also don't play tourneys too much.DN gives 4 possibilities: 2pair, set, A:heart:J, and possibly medium flush. I have pretty good pot odds against 2pair unless he has K (which might be ruled out because DN says the K doesn't scare you). I have good odds against A:heart:J. I have bad odds against trips or small flush. So, depending on how you weight the distribution, I'm actually in better shape than I first thought. However...I really can't see putting in that much more money when I'm likely behind and none of my outs are clean. I have zero fold equity here, since only the weakest player is folding to just 3.5k more if you push all-in. Likewise, with so little stack left compared to the pot, a call is pretty much as bad--what kind of info or leverage do you expect to gain on the river? Yes, I know my opponent's hand is vulnerable, but I don't know in what way it's vulnerable. Basically, this is a crying call/all-in for over half your chips. New school or old school, I don't see how this is a good play. It's v. early in the tourney and you'll have 9k left. There will be better spots to get all your money in the pot.To me, this quiz question is a lesson on the dangers of open-raising your strong hands when stacks are deep and blinds are tiny.