You Hold Aa.... Call Or Fold

[James D 0]

Ok, so you paid your $10,000 to the cashier at Harrah's Rio the week before... you are now sitting at your table in the Main Event of the WSOP... lo and behold, you appear to have drawn the most ridiculous table in World Series poker history. EVERYONE goes all in! I think it's 9 people per table, so that's 8 all-ins. You look down and you have AA... Do you call, or fold?If you call, your chances of AA holding up will be no greater than 16%.. possibly a little less. If it is 10 handed, then reduce the odds even further.Do you risk your whole tournament on a 14 - 16% shot? My answer would be no. These people are all clearly lunatics and you will be able to build your stack slower, but consistently, through them, rather than risk it all in a 9-handed (or 10 handed) crap shoot. My point is that even though you have AA, you can wait for a better spot against these madmen.Stats - AA will NOT always be the best hand 9 handed... It is actually quite hard for it to be against 9 or 10 random hands, if you play around with a NL Holdem odds calculator.In this case, attached, 2 3 suited has a better chance of winning. AA is only 14.7%. You can see for yourself that, 9 handed, AA will not be the best hand. And it rarely will be, with 9 random hands.If this has been discussed before, I don't wanna hear it, just don't post. This was a topic of discussion I was having yesterday, while playing with friends... And I realize it is purely hypothetical and would never happen. It is just a theory question.So I am interested to hear what the 'great minds' of this forum might think about it.

[pragtyro 0]

My point is that even though you have AA, you can wait for a better spot against these madmen.

Madmen is plural, are you expecting a chopped pot? Or did you think they would relocate both you and the guy who now has 90k to the same table?

[JMoney2681 0]

Fold AINEC...

[James D 0]

Madmen is plural, are you expecting a chopped pot? Or did you think they would relocate both you and the guy who now has 90k to the same table?

They would relocate others to your table... The one madman who stays would remain at your table. That is how tournament poker works. (Unless they move him to the feature TV table, as some sort of circus freak).

[JMoney2681 0]

Madmen is plural, are you expecting a chopped pot? Or did you think they would relocate both you and the guy who now has 90k to the same table?

What in gods name are you talking about?FOLD AINEC

[Zach6668 513]

This topic has been discussed a million times.I insta call.

[JMoney2681 0]

This topic has been discussed a million times.I insta call.SW

FYP sir.

[Abbaddabba 0]

According to pokerstove, Aces are about 30% against 9 random hands.32s is about 9% against 9 random hands.Im not sure what piece of **** program you're using. But every number you've cited is completely wrong.I'd love to hear how you'll outplay the winner of the pot postflop when he/she is likely just going to continue going all in preflop. I guess you could wait for aces. ...Or if not, there'll be 8 other people who'll probably be doing a much better job at taking his chips.

[JMoney2681 0]

According to pokerstove, Aces are about 30% against 9 random hands.32s is about 9% against 9 random hands.Im not sure what piece of **** program you're using. But every number you've cited is completely wrong.I'd love to hear how you'll outplay the winner of the pot postflop when he/she is likely just going to continue going all in preflop. I guess you could wait for aces. ...Or if not, there'll be 8 other people who'll probably be doing a much better job at taking his chips.

It's because in the OP's example he didn't use 9 random hands, he picked them out and one of them was AJs, taking away an A for AA. But anyway, for OP - what kind of a dumb a$$ hypothetical question is this, of course you fold. WTF?

[James D 0]

According to pokerstove, Aces are about 30% against 9 random hands.32s is about 9% against 9 random hands.Im not sure what piece of **** program you're using. But every number you've cited is completely wrong.The piece of **** program I used was http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php - It was the only one I could find quickly that had a 10 seat table (i usually just use the one on the WPT website, as I have never needed that many seats before - I do not have Poker Stove downloaded). Try it for yourself, on any other calculator, enter 9 random hands, including AA and see what the result is.I'd love to hear how you'll outplay the winner of the pot postflop when he/she is likely just going to continue going all in preflop. I guess you could wait for aces. ...If they continue to do that and you have a strong hand, then fine, if you are able to play a pot with just them, or 2-3 people, not the WHOLE TABLE going all-in, which was the original question.Or if not, there'll be 8 other people who'll probably be doing a much better job at taking his chips.Possibly you, if you happen to win the 15% shot (30% in your opinion). Unless you lose of course, which more often than not you would, and you would be on your way home, with no chance of outplaying them, when you have a 90% chance of winning the hand

This topic has been discussed a million times.I insta call.

FFS, I said if in my original post, if this bothers you DO NOT post!!!!!! I knew that this had probably been discussed before, that is why I said that.

It's because in the OP's example he didn't use 9 random hands, he picked them out and one of them was AJs, taking away an A for AA. But anyway, for OP - what kind of a dumb a$$ hypothetical question is this, of course you fold. WTF?

Once again children, as I said already, I KNOW this would never happen!!! It is just that, a hypothetical question. Seriously though, if you really think it is a dumb question, why in the hell would you bother posting in this topic? I know you are addicted to posting and all, but that just doesn't even make sense!

[JMoney2681 0]

Seriously though, if you really think it is a dumb question, why in the hell would you bother posting in this topic? I know you are addicted to posting and all, but that just doesn't even make sense!

Fold...If anyone says call, punch them in the throat and kick them in the spleen. No one with a brain is callling 9 all ins with AA for 10K main event.

[Abbaddabba 0]

The piece of **** program I used was http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php - It was the only one I could find quickly that had a 10 seat table (i usually just use the one on the WPT website, as I have never needed that many seats before - I do not have Poker Stove downloaded). Try it for yourself, on any other calculator, enter 9 random hands, including AA and see what the result is.

i'd rather not install the active x control on that page to view it. and i dont really care to argue about which program is more reputable, because pokerstove has been the 'standard' for quite some time. the example you used in your original post is not representative. if that is what your program calculates, then it means nothing. pokerstove uses an algorithm that calculates all possible hand combinations. the funny thing is that when these trite scenarios are posted, the people who are so adament about folding so that they can outplay their opponents later are generally the ones who have no chance at ever doing it.

[BuffDan 0]

Fold...If anyone says call, punch them in the throat and kick them in the spleen. No one with a brain is callling 9 all ins with AA for 10K main event, unless of course that person also understands the concept of +EV and the fact that with 10x the normal chip stack, they could pretty much have their way with whomever is placed at their table next, in which case they instacall.

FYP. Seriously, in tournaments you have to take advantage of situations where you have way more equity then your opponents, Matt Matros wrote a great article about this in card player here:http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093This article is almost always quoted in these situations, and it illustrates why you should take a slight equity advantage all in; note also that pocket aces preflop is not just a slight equity advantage, even with 9 others in the pot, thus making the call even better than in his hypothetical.

[JMoney2681 0]

FYP. Seriously, in tournaments you have to take advantage of situations where you have way more equity then your opponents, Matt Matros wrote a great article about this in card player here:This article is almost always quoted in these situations, and it illustrates when you should take a slight equity advantage all in; note also that pocket aces preflop is not just a slight equity advantage, even with 9 others in the pot, thus making the call even better than in his hypothetical.

Honestly I never liked any of Matt Matros' articles in cardplayer. I don't care if I have a .1% +EV versus folding/calling. If I have AA and see 9 all ins, I am not calling. Assuming you do win the hand, we still only have 90K in chips, nothing is guaranteed. Dmitri Nobles had 500K chips at one point but threw that all away. 90K is nice, but won't guarantee you the final table, no where near it. This question also depends on whether or not you are rolled or a 10K buy in. If I was someone who could afford the loss I would call, but for the average Joe, calling and busting out would be too detrimental.

[BuffDan 0]

Honestly I never liked any of Matt Matros' articles in cardplayer. I don't care if I have a .1% +EV versus folding/calling. If I have AA and see 9 all ins, I am not calling. Assuming you do win the hand, we still only have 90K in chips, nothing is guaranteed. Dmitri Nobles had 500K chips at one point but threw that all away. 90K is nice, but won't guarantee you the final table, no where near it. This question also depends on whether or not you are rolled or a 10K buy in. If I was someone who could afford the loss I would call, but for the average Joe, calling and busting out would be too detrimental.

But not calling all-ins with huge equity advantages probably will guarantee we WON'T make the final table. This is not an example of only .1% +EV; assuming Abba's numbers are right, and I have absolutely no reason to doubt him, we win 30% of the time while contributing only 10% of the money; that is huge!The average Joe needs to take advantage of every chance he has anyways in a tournament like this, since he is at a skill disadavantage; those 3/10 of the time this works he will be in the tournament way longer than it would have with him nursing his 10k stack anyways. And the good player, the one that can "outplay the rest of the field and doesn't need to take this chance," as people are prone to say, will benifit a great deal from those extra chips.So in either case, calling makes sense, unless of course you just want to be sitting at the table, but then you aren't really taking into account theory anyways.

[JMoney2681 0]

But not calling all-ins with huge equity advantages probably will guarantee we WON'T make the final table. This is not an example of only .1% +EV; assuming Abba's numbers are right, and I have absolutely no reason to doubt him, we win 30% of the time while contributing only 10% of the money; that is huge!The average Joe needs to take advantage of every chance he has anyways in a tournament like this, since he is at a skill disadavantage; those 3/10 of the time this works he will be in the tournament way longer than it would have with him nursing his 10k stack anyways. And the good player, the one that can "outplay the rest of the field and doesn't need to take this chance," as people are prone to say, will benifit a great deal from those extra chips.So in either case, calling makes sense, unless of course you just want to be sitting at the table, but then you aren't really taking into account theory anyways.

Hmm...the more you post, the more I become a believer...

[James D 0]

i'd rather not install the active x control on that page to view it. and i dont really care to argue about which program is more reputable, because pokerstove has been the 'standard' for quite some time. Where in my post did I argue about which was best? Go on, back you go, read it again! I said that I didn't have it downloaded and that the one I used was the one I found the quickest. Paranoid?!the example you used in your original post is not representative. if that is what your program calculates, then it means nothing. pokerstove uses an algorithm that calculates all possible hand combinations. the funny thing is that when these trite scenarios are posted, the people who are so adament about folding so that they can outplay their opponents later are generally the ones who have no chance at ever doing it.Interesting!! Very interesting, seeing as you do not know who I am or my win/loss record... So for the record, I play predominently at PokerStars, at low stakes, mainly Sit n Gos and MTTs. My average buy in is $10, and I have played 1,426 Sit N Gos with an ROI of 24% and a total profit, including buy in and rake, of $2,394. I have also won a total of $3,331 from MTTs. So I am not a losing player, by any means.I also do not know who the hell you are, but if you play higher stakes, have a better ROI, have won more money, play high stakes cash games, then congratulations and good luck to you.I can tell you rate yourself VERY highly anyway, it's obvious, but as I said, for me, a $10,000 buy in is huge, and I would not call 8 or 9 all-ins on the first hand, even with AA, as I will lose more often than I win. That is my basic reason for folding the hand.

But thanks for the cocky, arrogant response anyway, to be expected I suppose from somebody who has thousands of posts like you!! I know the attitude to somebody who has only just registered at this forum.. Like I say, you do not know who the hell I am, what other forums I have been a member of for nearly 2 years.. I have seen it all before, and it is nothing if not predictable.

[navybuttons 15]

But thanks for the cocky, arrogant response anyway, to be expected I suppose from somebody who has thousands of posts like you!! I know the attitude to somebody who has only just registered at this forum.. Like I say, you do not know who the hell I am, what other forums I have been a member of for nearly 2 years.. I have seen it all before, and it is nothing if not predictable.

boooourns.j/k. i don't care about any of this. i'm getting stacked off as we speak.

[James D 0]

But not calling all-ins with huge equity advantages probably will guarantee we WON'T make the final table. This is not an example of only .1% +EV; assuming Abba's numbers are right, and I have absolutely no reason to doubt him, we win 30% of the time while contributing only 10% of the money; that is huge!The average Joe needs to take advantage of every chance he has anyways in a tournament like this, since he is at a skill disadavantage; those 3/10 of the time this works he will be in the tournament way longer than it would have with him nursing his 10k stack anyways. And the good player, the one that can "outplay the rest of the field and doesn't need to take this chance," as people are prone to say, will benifit a great deal from those extra chips.So in either case, calling makes sense, unless of course you just want to be sitting at the table, but then you aren't really taking into account theory anyways.

Good response... You would call, and you gave a fair reason, that you think the +EV you are getting, gives the correct odds for you to call 9 or 10 all ins... That is fine, but my opinion is still that I would not call, due to the fact that most of the time I would not win the hand - 85% of the time (according to my calculation), you would be out of the tournament - you can also look at it from that angle.Like I said, you can believe whatever stats you like, but when entering 9 random hands into the odds calculator, AA was second favorite. Perhaps the maximum you can be is a 30% chance, but you can be as little as 14%, and of course you have no idea what the 9 hands are that you are calling.I would prefer to try to build my stack, through pots where I am sure that I am much higher than 50% favorite to win the hand.Maybe that is because it is a $10,000 buy in and that is WAAAAAY beyond what I imagine playing in.. If it was a $10 sit n go, sure I'd probably just call, but my original question was specific. It is the first hand of the main event.

[Loismustdie 0]

Good response... You would call, and you gave a fair reason, that you think the +EV you are getting, gives the correct odds for you to call 9 or 10 all ins... That is fine, but my opinion is still that I would not call, due to the fact that most of the time I would not win the hand - you can also look at it from that angle.Like I said, you can believe whatever stats you like, but when entering 9 random hands into the odds calculator, AA was second favorite. Perhaps the maximum you can be is a 30% chance, but you can be as little as 14%, and of course you have no idea what the 9 hands are that you are calling.I would prefer to try to build my stack, through pots where I am sure that I am much higher than 50% favorite to win the hand.Maybe that is because it is a $10,000 buy in and that is WAAAAAY beyond what I imagine playing in.. If it was a $10 sit n go, sure I'd probably just call, but my original question was specific. It is the first hand of the main event.

Call, stupid.

[PhilIvey 0]

Fold the hand , if you think you can outplay themWhy take a crapshoot on the first hand?

[LongLiveYorke 38]

I don't get what's hard about this:18,500 games 20.029 secs 923 games/secBoard: Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 30.3930 % 30.17% 00.22% { AA }Hand 2: 07.5051 % 06.75% 00.76% { random }Hand 3: 07.6511 % 06.86% 00.79% { random }Hand 4: 07.8362 % 07.02% 00.81% { random }Hand 5: 07.5200 % 06.66% 00.86% { random }Hand 6: 07.7813 % 06.95% 00.83% { random }Hand 7: 07.8159 % 07.02% 00.80% { random }Hand 8: 07.6768 % 06.85% 00.82% { random }Hand 9: 08.2709 % 07.54% 00.74% { random }Hand 10: 07.5497 % 06.77% 00.78% { random }Against pure randoms, we're more than 30% to win.------------------------------------------------------------------------------- equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 36.8160 % 35.63% 01.19% { AA }Hand 2: 06.2257 % 05.63% 00.60% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 3: 07.0590 % 06.35% 00.70% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 4: 07.0764 % 06.56% 00.51% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 5: 07.9097 % 07.50% 00.41% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 6: 06.5729 % 05.94% 00.64% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 7: 06.9028 % 06.15% 00.76% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 8: 06.7292 % 06.15% 00.58% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 9: 07.2847 % 06.77% 00.51% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Hand 10: 07.4236 % 06.88% 00.55% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }Against a group of "reasonable" hands that could get it all in on the first hand, we're even better. The small differences in the percentages of the other hands are obviously due to the random nature of the monte carlo simulation that Pokerstove uses. Obviously I thought it would take too long to enumerate every combination.We're getting 9 to 1 on our money on the first hand. Assuming that we could afford to enter the main event in the first place, this is a pretty easy call. We would end up with 100,000 right off the bat and have the biggest stack in the room for quite some while after. Assuming that you're half decent, this is a major advantage, especially against people playing tight early on.

[simo_8ball 0]

Read THIS .Paul Phillips proves that you have to call if you like money. This is not close.

[MasterLJ 0]

I've always heard 30-35% against 10 random hands, and Actuary/Yorke/Abba confirms this is true.I call AINEC.Roughly 1/3rd of the time I am sitting with 100k in chips on day 1, hand 1 of the ME. The punishment you can put on everyone else being 10 x chip average is absolutely worth gambling with only 30-35% equity.

[Balloon guy 158]

I would announce my hand, and then toss them face up in the muck and say call. While they all argue about the rules, I would sit back and enjoy the show.But thats just me.