James D 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Author Share Posted October 15, 2006 Again, in what scenerio would your AA be no better than 15%?Gave an example in the original post... But I acknowledge that there are situations where it would be higher than this. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 There are situations where the the nut full house is drawing dead to quads.That doesnt make it even close to a fold if 9 maniacs push into you on an AQ22 board when you have aces.Sure one guy COULD have 22 and another guy could have the case ace. There're hypothetical situations for any hand where you could be killed, short of flopping the top end of a straight flush.Having aces here isnt as big an edge as having top full in the other example. But it's big enough that not even the best player in the world should be folding. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 That quote is in the thread I directed you to. Really, if you can read Paul Phillips analysis and still advocate folding, you don't understand equity.QFTI have seen the light, of course, calling this would be a different for someone who can afford the 10K and someone who is just desperately trying to cash, of course, if you're going for the best possible +EV situation, calling would be correct. I was wrong, now I see the light, thanks guys. Link to post Share on other sites
Sluggo 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 The fold and wait for a better spot argument sucks.THIS IS A BETTER SPOT!!!Pros win in spots like these, not because they turn down small edges, but because they recognize their edges and push! Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 calling this would be a different for someone who can afford the 10K and someone who is just desperately trying to cash, of course, if you're going for the best possible +EV situation, calling would be correct.Calling is correct even if it is your last $10K on earth. It gives you the greatest chance of cashing - winning this hand gives you what will be the average stack at the bubble. You could play only aces and kings from this point on and you would cash a huge amount of the time. Link to post Share on other sites
kkot 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 calling this would be a different for someone who can afford the 10K and someone who is just desperately trying to cash, of course, if you're going for the best possible +EV situation, calling would be correct.I don't think so. I think calling gives you the BEST chance at cashing. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Calling is correct even if it is your last $10K on earth.This question reminds me of the other one about the (You have your last 2,000 in play, do you call with the open ended striaght draw blah blah blah) so no, calling isn't always correct. If you lose, you go home broke and cry.+70% of the time you go bust...in the other example...maybe 40% of the time you go bust...I'm talking about the guy with his last 10K, not someone who can afford to buy in again at every other event. This is the determining factor IMO.I don't think so. I think calling gives you the BEST chance at cashing.30% of the time... Link to post Share on other sites
gsxraddict 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 I was in a situation like this in a 200 buy in tournament; 6 out of 10 went all in.....AA held up out of 6 callers, and the guy was an instant bully from the start of the tournament with over 6x the chips, he went on to finish 3rd of out 700.I'd call here, unless I was up against Jamie Gold Link to post Share on other sites
kkot 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 30% of the time...Do you think that you can cash in the main event more than 30% of the time?I'm not saying that winning this hand alone will put you in the money, but you have a much better chance if you have 10x the starting chip stack.It's simply too much of an advantage to pass up. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Do you think that you can cash in the main event more than 30% of the time?I'm not saying that winning this hand alone will put you in the money, but you have a much better chance if you have 10x the starting chip stack.It's simply too much of an advantage to pass up.I agree all the way, but if it is someones last 10K, it makes it different.Read the, "With the bankroll on the line" thread, if you already haven't. If it's the guys last 10K, folding has it's argument. This type of scenario reminds me of this...IF' its his last 10K Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 The best poker players on earth don't cash 25% of the time. You have a 31% chance of getting to what will be the average stack on the bubble after the very first hand. You obviously don't understand how huge that advantage actually is. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 The best poker players on earth don't cash 25% of the time. You have a 31% chance of getting to what will be the average stack on the bubble after the very first hand. You obviously don't understand how huge that advantage actually is.100K is nice, but doesn't guarantee you anything. I'm just saying that if it's your LAST 10K, folding has it's argument. Link to post Share on other sites
kkot 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 I agree all the way, but if it is someones last 10K, it makes it different.Read the, "With the bankroll on the line" thread, if you already haven't. If it's the guys last 10K, folding has it's argument. This type of scenario reminds me of this...IF' its his last 10KIt isn't the same. The 'bankroll on the line' thread is about a cash game, where you could leave and drop down in stakes. This is a single tournament where you obviously cannot leave. If it was my last 10k I would make this play, without question, because I know that it is my best chance to cash.If it wasn't my last 10k and I just wanted to have fun playing in the biggest tournament in the world... I would STILL make this play, because 30% of the time I get a massive stack and be able to play around a lot more. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 JMoney,You are wrong.If its your last $10K, you are just going to blind yourself off? Give me a ****ing break. Grow a pair, take +EV when it's there.********For those of you saying because the buyin is 1000 times your standard buy in, so you fold: It doesn't matter. If you aren't comfortable PROPERLY playing a $10,000 tournament, DON'T PLAY A $10,000 TOURNAMENT.This is NOT hard people.It's +EV no matter how you twist it.Stop making it difficult.If you don't call here, quit poker forever.- Zach Link to post Share on other sites
critikal 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Ok, so you paid your $10,000 to the cashier at Harrah's Rio the week before... you are now sitting at your table in the Main Event of the WSOP... lo and behold, you appear to have drawn the most ridiculous table in World Series poker history. EVERYONE goes all in! I think it's 9 people per table, so that's 8 all-ins. You look down and you have AA... Do you call, or fold?If you call, your chances of AA holding up will be no greater than 16%.. possibly a little less. If it is 10 handed, then reduce the odds even further.Do you risk your whole tournament on a 14 - 16% shot? My answer would be no. These people are all clearly lunatics and you will be able to build your stack slower, but consistently, through them, rather than risk it all in a 9-handed (or 10 handed) crap shoot. My point is that even though you have AA, you can wait for a better spot against these madmen.Stats - AA will NOT always be the best hand 9 handed... It is actually quite hard for it to be against 9 or 10 random hands, if you play around with a NL Holdem odds calculator.In this case, attached, 2 3 suited has a better chance of winning. AA is only 14.7%. You can see for yourself that, 9 handed, AA will not be the best hand. And it rarely will be, with 9 random hands.If this has been discussed before, I don't wanna hear it, just don't post. This was a topic of discussion I was having yesterday, while playing with friends... And I realize it is purely hypothetical and would never happen. It is just a theory question.So I am interested to hear what the 'great minds' of this forum might think about it.Wow! What a Unique question! I don't think this has ever been posted on any internet forum anywhere ever.Instacall. Link to post Share on other sites
AcesOnFire 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 For those of you saying because the buyin is 1000 times your standard buy in, so you fold: It doesn't matter. If you aren't comfortable PROPERLY playing a $10,000 tournament, DON'T PLAY A $10,000 TOURNAMENT.This is NOT hard people.It's +EV no matter how you twist it.Stop making it difficult.If you don't call here, quit poker forever.- ZachAgreed. Its +EV, that means calling gives you profit no matter what. Link to post Share on other sites
James D 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 Wow! What a Unique question! I don't think this has ever been posted on any internet forum anywhere ever.Instacall.Was done with this topic, I have heard some very well balanced arguments, and I am enough of a man to say that I have changed my viewpoint, I stated this earlier.This the the only sort of post which will get me back.LISTEN!!!!! I said in my original post that I KNOW this has been discussed before, ffs!!!!! Why bother posting if you are bothered by this, why?? why why why???? It doesn't make sense, it never does when people say this!! You have seen it before and it bores you, yet you are willing to post to say how boring it is???Go and post in a topic that interests you! Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 I agree all the way, but if it is someones last 10K, it makes it different.No it doesnt.Not unless the entire field consists of braindead loose passives. Read the, "With the bankroll on the line" thread, if you already haven't. If it's the guys last 10K, folding has it's argument. This type of scenario reminds me of this...No. It doesnt.The situations arent comparable. You cant cash in your tournament chips. You're going to be forced into situations that will have you risking that 10k at some point, and there's nothing you can do about it.This is your best chance at accumulating the chips you'll need to make it to the bubble.You are nowhere near the bubble at this point.If this was a dozen or so positions away from pay, you can make an argument for folding every hand and letting yourself blind out just to recoup the 10k. But the field is far too large for that to be an option starting from the first hand in. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 If this has been discussed before, I don't wanna hear it, just don't post. So I am interested to hear what the 'great minds' of this forum might think about it.shut up Link to post Share on other sites
James D 0 Posted October 16, 2006 Author Share Posted October 16, 2006 shut upI think you are suffering from 'little man' syndrome... Were you bullied at school? It would be quite funny to see you try to shut me up in real life, that's all I'm gonna say.Keep safe, behind your computer screen, that would be a very wise thing for someone like you do to. Link to post Share on other sites
Governator 54 Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 If I was homeless... had 1 shoe... ate twice a week... I'd be even more excited to call with AA in that situation... Link to post Share on other sites
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