JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Ok well here's the deal. At least I am trying to learn something here. If I am so incorrect and you are the great master then tell me EXACTLY what I have done wrong and why I am so incorrect. I'm not trying to be a **** here but its very easy to tell someone they're incorrect, but not so easy to prove 100% why they are. By all means tell me. And don't just quote me sample size. That's not 100% proof you need to bring more than that to convince me.MattWell the best thing would be to post up your Hand history in Strat if you are looking for a simple solution. Maybe when you pushed with a big pair you already were short stacked and made the call easier for someone to call with a marginal holding and suck out. I don't know for sure, but either way, you are seeing what variance can do to. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Right now, bad.Ok I see your point. But by that logic you should also have times when you win 20 in a row too.So if I play 1000 of these things and post all hand historys on them. Will you admit that I may not be completely correct but there may be something to what I am saying?MattWell, if you lost 1000 in a row yes, but that will not happen. If you are a good player, things will eventually "even" out. It just takes some time if you are on a downswing, and 25 SNG's don't show for much playing time. Link to post Share on other sites
Dogpatch 2 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 not necessarilyif you flip a coin it's 50/50 for heads and tailsit's statistically possible for you to continuously flip all heads or all tailshighly unlikely but possible.I could say that out of the 19 you should have lost them all.Had you won them all, then what?Everybody complains when it's not "fixed" in their favour.Whenever I get a bad beat I remind myself of the times I gave them I was about to drop the quarter reference also. It's the first lesson in learning about odds. Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 if you ran it 101 times then you would expect to win 51 (but don't ever think you 'should' or are entitled to it). you will not understand poker until you realize that a sample size of 19 is basically saying "i fliped a coin and it came up heads two times in a row. there is something wrong here."online poker is more random than live poker.Incorrect. If you ran a sample of 101 you should expect 51 and that is what should happen. If not then you were not truely a favorite were you? I understand that random comes into play but what size sample do you need to look at? What if you ran 10,000 hands as the favorite and didn't come out ahead? Variance? At some point you go from being a favorite to a victim of variance at which point you no longer hold the advantage of being the favorite no matter what you're holding.And since noone can show they put all their money in 10,000 times with the favorite you just don't know for sure do you? Just as much as I can't say that I'm correct, you can't either. You show me 10,000+ samples and show me that you're correct. You can't can you. You just "know" but the truth is you don't "know" for sure. You can't tell me that the math tells you that you're a 51% favorite in hands, and then tell me that a sample size is not big enough. At what point does variance lose to math?Matt Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 matt, i know what you are askin, and YES there is a 'statistically' acceptable sample size and there is a way to calculate it, i however do not know/remember it. Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Well the best thing would be to post up your Hand history in Strat if you are looking for a simple solution. Maybe when you pushed with a big pair you already were short stacked and made the call easier for someone to call with a marginal holding and suck out. I don't know for sure, but either way, you are seeing what variance can do to. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Right now, bad.Well, if you lost 1000 in a row yes, but that will not happen. If you are a good player, things will eventually "even" out. It just takes some time if you are on a downswing, and 25 SNG's don't show for much playing time.I am not talking about skill level. I am purely talking about math. I am even stacked with people when I push all in but that doesn't matter I am simply talking about pushing in with a pair and observing how many times I win/lose with an advantage. You are talking about variance. If what you say is correct then you may very well lose every single time you push all in no matter what you hold. So, what is the point of having a solid starting hand. You may very well lose anyway correct? Sure the chances are slim to none but you can just as easy lose every confontation couldn't you? I am simply trying to compair math and those odds to the actual online outcomes. Know what I'm saying?Matt Link to post Share on other sites
TylerSalzman 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 I ran a little expirament.I played 25 $1.50 SIT N GOS on Pacific Poker.I chose this game because I knew the players would assist me.I pushed all in pre-flop with the first pair in the pocket I had 10-10 or higher and folded all the rest.Since I got called every time I found this very interesting.Out of 25 times I pushed all in I was the pre-flop favorite 19 times. I lost 16 of them to draw-outs.Discuss.Oh and I know I'm an idiot but look at these results.Matt#1 I'd like to see a randomized, double blind, control study performed on this.#2 It's important for us to know your associated p-values and Confidence intervals for proper statistical analysis.#3 having 1010 or JJ preflop aint that great if someone else has 2 overcards Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 You can't tell me that the math tells you that you're a 51% favorite in hands, and then tell me that a sample size is not big enough. At what point does variance lose to math?MattYes we can, it happens everyday. If you are 51% to win a certain hand, then you are 51% to win it. It doesn't mean that you will win 51 out of 100 times. It means you were "supposed" to. Variance is the answer. That is why people who complain about running bad at their home games are dumb because they probably only saw 50-100 hands that night, if that. When you start running the scenario more times, you eventually win more. That is why continually playing with bad players is +EV for your roll. Look at it like this..Let's say we flip a coin and every time it's heads I win $1, and every time it is tails you win $1...An obvious 50/50 scenario, so let's see what happens...If we flip the coin 10 times, and you win 6 out of 10. You have won $6 and lost $4. So you win 60% of the time. Now let's make a bigger sample.If we now flip the coin 1,000 times and you win 550 out of 1000. You have won $550 and lost $450. So you have now won 55% of the time. Your actualy winning percentage went from 60% to 55%, but you won more money. Now lets get a bigger sample...If we flip the coin 10,000 times and you win 5400 times out of 10,000. You have now won $5,400 and lost $4,600. So when you played a small sample and won 60% of the time, you only made $2. When you played 10,000 times with only a 54% win chance, you made $800. Even though your wining % is going down, you are making MORE money, because of the large sample that continually ALLOWS you to be a favorite(if you are putting your money in with the best of it). Your win percentage could actually come down slight, but if you are playing more and more, you actually make more $$$. So be glad you get your money in good, and chalk it up to bad times with variance.So bascially, the more times you can be ahead when the money goes in, the better. It's just a #'s game. Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 #1 I'd like to see a randomized, double blind, control study performed on this.#2 It's important for us to know your p-values and Confidence intervals for proper statistical analysis.#3 having 1010 or JJ preflop aint that great if someone else has 2 overcardsThat's exactly what I am saying. I would love to see someone run 10,000 sample hands exactly this way. I think the results would be interesting. And I know that being a small favorite is not great but ... you should by the laws of math come out ahead if you're money always goes in as the favorite. If you do not then variance can defy the laws of math and you're advantage is null and void. At the point variance controlls your results and not skill. I will never convince anyone of this but ... they need to do more research before they tell me how "100% incorect" I am. They might be suprised.Matt Link to post Share on other sites
BWToth 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Either it is random or it is not. Until you understand this all other posts by you on this will be meaningless.There are degrees of RandomnessThat's exactly what I am saying. I would love to see someone run 10,000 sample hands exactly this way. I think the results would be interesting. And I know that being a small favorite is not great but ... you should by the laws of math come out ahead if you're money always goes in as the favorite. If you do not then variance can defy the laws of math and you're advantage is null and void. At the point variance controlls your results and not skill. I will never convince anyone of this but ... they need to do more research before they tell me how "100% incorect" I am. They might be suprised.MattYou're missing the point. you could flip a coin 19 times and it comes up heads 16 of the flips, would you then come to the conclusion that you have some sort of faulty coin that comes up heads more often than it should? Or would just then try flipping it 100 times? 1000? Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Seriously, After this post I will drop it.All I am saying is this. If you play 10,000 hands as a favorite you should come out ahead. If all money is even. If you dont' then variance has defied math and has caused you to lose your money. If that is true then variance can cause you to come out a loser every time if it just happens to come out that way. Playing perfect poker can help put you in a good position but variance can null and void any advantage you have. No matter how small the chance variance can beat you over and over and over again. If it can beat you in a 100 hand sample then it can also beat you in a 10,000 sample as well.Now let's say in the case of online, that the program that can't be completely random because it has to be written. Combine that with variance and you may very well not have a chance at coming out ahead. I may not be correct, and I am open to thoughs on this but I may very well be correct too.Matt Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 if you play 1000 hands you will probably lose at least 19 of those. each hand is a random event. pretend those 19 losses happened back to back to back......... same thingThis is exactly right. Matt, reread this post 19 times in a row.if you ran it 101 times then you would expect to win 51 (but don't ever think you 'should' or are entitled to it). you will not understand poker until you realize that a sample size of 19 is basically saying "i fliped a coin and it came up heads two times in a row. there is something wrong here."online poker is more random than live poker. huh?!?!Ok I see your point. But by that logic you should also have times when you win 20 in a row too.So if I play 1000 of these things and post all hand historys on them. Will you admit that I may not be completely correct but there may be something to what I am saying?Mattno. because there is nothing correct about anything you're saying. Link to post Share on other sites
Dogpatch 2 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Seriously, After this post I will drop it.All I am saying is this. If you play 10,000 hands as a favorite you should come out ahead. If all money is even. If you dont' then variance has defied math and has caused you to lose your money. If that is true then variance can cause you to come out a loser every time if it just happens to come out that way. Playing perfect poker can help put you in a good position but variance can null and void any advantage you have. No matter how small the chance variance can beat you over and over and over again. If it can beat you in a 100 hand sample then it can also beat you in a 10,000 sample as well.Now let's say in the case of online, that the program that can't be completely random because it has to be written. Combine that with variance and you may very well not have a chance at coming out ahead. I may not be correct, and I am open to thoughs on this but I may very well be correct too.Matt Sure, variance can defy math, or is it a part of it? Either way even making the best mathematical decision does not guaranteee winning. But, there are plenty of people winning online... so what are they doing to win if the "not random enough" program is failing? Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Ok ...You win.Variance can't possiblly defy math.You will win with your advantages no matter what in the long run.Santa exsists.Elvis isan't dead.Lock it up.I give up.Matt Link to post Share on other sites
Dogpatch 2 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Ok ...You win.Variance can't possiblly defy math.You will win with your advantages no matter what in the long run.Santa exsists.Elvis isan't dead.Lock it up.I give up.MattNever give up, never surrender. (Besides, the first line in my last post was that variance defies math) Of course it does, isn't that the meaning of variance. To be different, to defy the norm. And the square of the standard deviation. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Ok ...You win.Variance can't possiblly defy math.You will win with your advantages no matter what in the long run.Santa exsists.Elvis isan't dead.Lock it up.I give up.MattScroll up and read my post... Link to post Share on other sites
Nixed 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 That's exactly what I am saying. I would love to see someone run 10,000 sample hands exactly this way. I think the results would be interesting. And I know that being a small favorite is not great but ... you should by the laws of math come out ahead if you're money always goes in as the favorite. If you do not then variance can defy the laws of math and you're advantage is null and void. At the point variance controlls your results and not skill. I will never convince anyone of this but ... they need to do more research before they tell me how "100% incorect" I am. They might be suprised.MattGoogle has lots of good stuff. http://www.yaodownload.com/games/simulatio...-simulator-pro/There are other software out there too, give it a shot. Don't like that, get out a deck of cards, a lot quicker and easier (and cheaper) than going through 1000s of sngs. Link to post Share on other sites
Dr_Shakes 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 There are degrees of RandomnessPlease elaborate and maybe something useful will come out of this thread... at least for me anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
l8rdaze 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 19=perfect sample sizeJust a small dose of sarcasm dected here - question - "How do you spell sarcasm?"answer - "You mean you don't know?" Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 You can have AA heads up and lose 10,000 times in a row vs any hand. Yes, you can. I don't care if you think so or not you can. I is very very very unlikely but it CAN happen. So let's expand it. If you have AA heads up 10,000 you can lose more than 50% of those hands as well. Again not very likely but quite possible.Yes, if you played AA or other hands that had an advantage you could by the math be favored to win more than you lose. However, if the above examples are true then you could also run into variance and lose.With me so far ...So you could play 10,000 hands with an advantage by math, and lose all of them. Not very likely at all but POSSIBLE. And you could definately lose more than 50% of the hands you played as well so ...What I am saying is that you could put yourself in an advantage by the math but variance could very well cause you to lose money in the long run.You could amplify the examples to 100,000 or 1,000,000 or more.Just because you have an advantage by the math does not guarantee you are going to win. Is it unlikely that you will lose more than you win ... by the math yes. But variance could very well beat you every hand. Believe it or not.Your AA could lose to JJ 10,000 times in a row as mathmatically unlikely as it is ... but it is POSSIBLE. And if that is true then variance CAN void your mathmatic advantage.This is solid logic ...Matt Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 You can have AA heads up and lose 10,000 times in a row vs any hand. Yes, you can.No. I just can't agree with that one, lol. Is it a mathematical freak of nature probability? Maybe so, BUT...Until it happens, I won't believe it, so no, it can't happen. Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 No. I just can't agree with that one, lol. Is it a mathematical freak of nature probability? Maybe so, BUT...Until it happens, I won't believe it, so no, it can't happen.And that is why I don't believe anything that is being said here.It CAN happen. And if you can lose 10,000 times in a row you CERTINLY lose 5.001 times in a row in the long run no matter the math.SorryMatt Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 And that is why I don't believe anything that is being said here.It CAN happen. And if you can lose 10,000 times in a row you CERTINLY lose 5.001 times in a row in the long run no matter the math.SorryMattWhen it happens, let me know... Link to post Share on other sites
omahahilo 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 When it happens, let me know...You know I win right ... give me solid math/scientific proof I'm wrong.Call a math professor ... do whatever you gotta do. I win I win I win.HahahahahMatt Link to post Share on other sites
Jerry 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 I understand the sample size is too small ... just a little test.Also by saying that its rigged would be saying that someone intentionally made sure that the implied results would occour. I am saying that the software may not be as random as you think Not that someone is knowingly causing it.MattP.S. How many hands do I need to play this way before I have a good sized sample as I'm not curious enough to try it. 500-1000?The real question is whether or not the lack of randomness hit you by random.And you don't have to play for real money, try play money thats random for sure. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 You know I win right ... give me solid math/scientific proof I'm wrong.Call a math professor ... do whatever you gotta do. I win I win I win.HahahahahMatt When it happens, let me know... Link to post Share on other sites
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