Dratj 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 Well, I assume that DN's strategy was to build a massive amount of chips by playing wild and crazy at his table and then taking all those chips back when he hits a monster and gets paid off. I guess his plan backfired when he got moved and couldn't take advantage of his image. I'm also assuming that this would not be good strategy for a regular person within a relatively limited bankroll since you would have to come in 6th or something like that just to make your money back. I know I'm saying obvious stuff here but I just had to write it down as I was thinking it out. Link to post Share on other sites
pokerbully 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 A smart pokerplayer checks the table break list before he emarks on this strategy.A gambler just assumes he'll have a chance to get his chips back.A smart player checks his cards before moving all in.A gambler will flip coins for $1,000, somehow believing he has an edge.It sounds like Daniel has been frustrated by the WSOP and he was just blowing off some steam. I'm sure he can afford it. He probably made some no name internet poker player very happy when he left the initial table with 10 of Daniel's buy ins. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 A smart pokerplayer checks the table break list before he emarks on this strategy.A gambler just assumes he'll have a chance to get his chips back.A smart player checks his cards before moving all in.A gambler will flip coins for $1,000, somehow believing he has an edge.It sounds like Daniel has been frustrated by the WSOP and he was just blowing off some steam. I'm sure he can afford it. He probably made some no name internet poker player very happy when he left the initial table with 10 of Daniel's buy ins.It's not flipping coins, it's trying to buy more chips because you have a bigger budget than your opponents and hence can afford to.If you are always getting all the money as a 3:2 dog, then if you do that 5 times you have about a 50% chance of winning two of them in a row. So it 8 times and you have about a 70% chance of winnign two in a row. So you have a good change of getting 4x (or 8x if you can rebuy straight away). If you are a better player than the rest of the table then you should be able to win those chips back too - though yes checking the break list would be wise :)There's no point playing a rebuy if you are going to let some other table have 10x as many chips on it as your table.You don't want to check your cards, because you want people to know you are moving in with random cards, so they will call with those hands that you are only a 3:2 dog to. And of course occassionaly you are in a coin flip, or even a favourite...This is a reasonable strategy for a normal player - assuming you are bankrolled sufficiently for the buyins. DN got unlucky in that he lost more pots than probability says you should, but that happens - heck I've heard rumours that sometimes AA loses in hold'em... Link to post Share on other sites
Big Mike Watters 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 heck I've heard rumours that sometimes AA loses in hold'em...UNTRUTH! Link to post Share on other sites
HonestPirate 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 The question be....Is there a desire to focus on poker at this time in his life? It seems to me mates that golf is more enjoyable right now. The incentive may always be treasure. But with all the media programs he be with, treasure is not an issue. Hence play like a pirate drinking rum.(48 buy ins) It be more fun. Our mate will refocus he just need some green acres for now.On the lighter side. His car must be related to the Black Pearl. It drives straight with no hands on the wheel. Then again The Pearl did sink in the latest movie.Yo Ho! Link to post Share on other sites
PairTheBoard 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 This is a reasonable strategy for a normal player - assuming you are bankrolled sufficiently for the buyins. DN got unlucky in that he lost more pots than probability says you should, but that happens - heck I've heard rumours that sometimes AA loses in hold'em...This strategy has got to be -EV for the normal player and I doubt Daniel would argue otherwise. As great as Daniel is it may be -EV even for him. I agree with Daniel's opinion that they should do away with these rebuy formats in the WSOP. It waters down the prestige of a WSOP braclet because it essentially allows some players to buy more chips than others, if they are willing to pay a premium for the chips. Link to post Share on other sites
TheSkins 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 Yeah but they're a laugh. Link to post Share on other sites
ChuckD 0 Posted July 24, 2006 Share Posted July 24, 2006 Well, I assume that DN's strategy was to build a massive amount of chips by playing wild and crazy at his table and then taking all those chips back when he hits a monster and gets paid off. I guess his plan backfired when he got moved and couldn't take advantage of his image. I'm also assuming that this would not be good strategy for a regular person within a relatively limited bankroll since you would have to come in 6th or something like that just to make your money back. I know I'm saying obvious stuff here but I just had to write it down as I was thinking it out.Its not about the money, its about trying to "buy" a bracelet, DN said it himself before the last rebuy event.You really think someone who can potentially win $100k+ on a round of golf or $450k+ in 8 hours of cash game poker cares about playing 3 days to try and win the $600k first prize?In essence its kind of a flaw with WSOP rebuys. Although rebuying the most times still brings you no guarantees, as has been proven this year. If the average "winning" internet player attempted this stategy of rebuying 30+ times in Rebuy MTTs online they would go broke pretty fast, but like DN said if it costs him x$ to win a bracelet then whatever...the bracelet is worth it. Link to post Share on other sites
llou 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 If the story is picked up by ESPN and shown on TV (again and again in reruns), DN bought himself some TV time and FCP advertising with his rebuys -- at a very reasonable price! Link to post Share on other sites
pokerbully 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 It's not flipping coins, it's trying to buy more chips because you have a bigger budget than your opponents and hence can afford to.If you are always getting all the money as a 3:2 dog, then if you do that 5 times you have about a 50% chance of winning two of them in a row. So it 8 times and you have about a 70% chance of winnign two in a row. So you have a good change of getting 4x (or 8x if you can rebuy straight away). If you are a better player than the rest of the table then you should be able to win those chips back too - though yes checking the break list would be wise This logic is flawed. Poker is about making more correct decisions than your opponents. Shoving your money in as an underdog is not a correct decision.Remember that each hand is a statistically independent event. Just because you lost the last 3 hands as a 3:2 dog does not mean you are due to win the next one. Link to post Share on other sites
boyitalia 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 Didn't Allen Cunningham do pretty well with just a couple rebuys? Don't see anything wrong with coin flipping early then if your still short maybe pushing in blind around the last level before the rebuy period ends. DN has a good point though with his "buying the bracelet stratagy". 48g's to him is a small price to pay for a chance at another bracelet. Interested to hear what you guys think Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 Daniel looked like he was fully enjoying himself when I saw him. It's nobody's business anyway really, so who cares? I thought it was great, soooo many stamps on that rebuy card! He has to frame that sucker.Too funny. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 This strategy has got to be -EV for the normal player and I doubt Daniel would argue otherwise. As great as Daniel is it may be -EV even for him. I agree with Daniel's opinion that they should do away with these rebuy formats in the WSOP. It waters down the prestige of a WSOP braclet because it essentially allows some players to buy more chips than others, if they are willing to pay a premium for the chips. Rebuying 48 times is ridiculous for a "normal player". But 9 or 10 rebuys to try and quadruple up early isn't... Link to post Share on other sites
silkyjonson 1 Posted July 25, 2006 Share Posted July 25, 2006 well I think the bottom line is that DN is willing to spend a lot of money to try and get the bracelet, if it was all about the dollar amount in this tourney, then no I don't think he would rebuy to this extent. I have heard him state that he does'nt mind shelling out the cash to try and get that bracelet and bragging rights Link to post Share on other sites
gradin123 0 Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 well I think the bottom line is that DN is willing to spend a lot of money to try and get the bracelet, if it was all about the dollar amount in this tourney, then no I don't think he would rebuy to this extent. I have heard him state that he does'nt mind shelling out the cash to try and get that bracelet and bragging rightsThe strategy Daniel uses in rebuys is the same strategy the monkey will use in main event. Link to post Share on other sites
XX44466XX 0 Posted July 28, 2006 Share Posted July 28, 2006 "It's my version of craps."Can you see Daniel beating the cute, tiny rabbit to death with a 9 iron?!?Me neither.If it's any consolation DN, I probably wouldn't be able to perform euthanasia either. Unless I had a .22.And Dog sees all. Link to post Share on other sites
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