Are Some Poker Players Mathematically Doomed?

[AcesUp46 0]

Lesson to be learnt from all this? Just make the best decision that you can at every point. If you get unlucky, so be it. It's been said many times, but it's still worth repeating.

[Ahmadinejad 0]

To everyone who says "no such thing as luck", I would agree, IF a "lifetime" was an adequately long sample to even it out. AcesUp46 posted this link to a great article by Caro and here is what he has to say on the subject:

1. The cards probably won't break even--not in gin rummy, not in poker, and not in real life. There's a common misconception that if you play poker long enough the cards will break even. Fat chance! Maybe, if you could play forever, never stopping, never sleeping, eventually you'd break even on luck. But not in just one lifetime! Early on you'd probably break even on, say, the number of full houses you were dealt, but it would take much longer to break even on circumstances surrounding those full houses.You might lose more hands than you should lose on average. On the other hand, sometimes opponents might have nothing to oppose you with, and you'll win nothing. You might get many full houses when you're sitting in big-limit games, or you may receive most in smaller games. You might be against weak opponents, you might not. On and on. And the more factors you consider, the broader the range of luck, and the longer it will take for you to break even.Does this mean some people are luckier than others for their lifetimes? You bet! But there's good news. You can still win, year after year, in gambling games requiring skill, even if you're not lucky. How? Simply by making the best decisions again and again without fail.

The thing about my two years of "bad luck" is that it can turn around and become exactly the opposite at any given time. Or, it could stay the same, smooth out, etc. But the point is that apparently a lifetime of poker is not enough poker for the math to work out to neutral for everyone. So far, I'm nowhere near "neutral" and heck, I would give up my nuclear program just to run "average" all the time.

[Actuary 3]

quit dwelling on it.quit using it as a crutchmaybe you make bad decisions more than you think

[Ahmadinejad 0]

Just curious why you would play this hand if you could have coasted to the final table and start all over with equal chips???

Actually in the tournament where I was knocked out on the bubble, that was the tournament where 999 times out of 1000 (or maybe 9,999 times out of 10,000) I should have been able to coast to the final table. In the tournament where I was 13th and made the raise UTG with AKs I had probably middle chip position but I figured that I was probably going to need to take one more pot before I could safely "coast" to the FT. Everyone was already in "coast" mode and playing extremely scared and I figured to get the blinds who both folded. With AKs most people would feel pretty good against AQo but I would have much rather seen him FOLD like he should have... and I was right as he got his friggin Q on the flop.

[DaBruins 0]

thats a really weird tournament structure. So how much does each player at the final table receive in real money chips (regardless of how big their stack is)???Anyway, for most people who play poker, a lifetime of hands is not enough to completely even out luck IMO. But human nature makes us exaggerate this difference even moreso. What i mean by that is that most people would probably label themselves as unlucky instead of lucky. Well then, were are all the lucky people? Most people tend to remember unlucky hands over lucky hands.

[tallytownFSU 0]

People do dumb ****, then blame luck. They get up a grand in the dice pit, don't leave, lose it all, and tell every body how unlucky they got. They denied their luck...they had it and gave it back.They credit good things to luck when it was good decision making, not necessarily luck....When you believe in thingsthat you don't understand...Then you suffer, Superstition ain't the way.

The Stevie Wonder or Stevie Ray Vaughan version?

[SPADES21 0]

"luck" also plays different according to your style of play. If you are a really tight player and only play the nuts than you arent going to get unlucky very often and would be considered a "lucky" person. On the flip side if you play really loose and aggressive than you will be bound to get into pots with the worst of it and recieve unneccessary beats, deeming you unlucky.So luck is in the eye of the beholder and there is nothing you can do about it...except cheat and steal!

[psujohn 0]

"luck" also plays different according to your style of play. If you are a really tight player and only play the nuts than you arent going to get unlucky very often and would be considered a "lucky" person. On the flip side if you play really loose and aggressive than you will be bound to get into pots with the worst of it and recieve unneccessary beats, deeming you unlucky.

Actually it's the opposite. If you only play AA you'll see AA cracked now and again thereby looking "unlucky". If you play 52o every hand you'll occassionally flop a straight, two pair, boat and look "lucky". You have to get in with the best hand in order to suffer a "bad beat".The human mind is very good at finding patterns where none exist. It's a tendancy you can use to your advantage. Point out to your opponents every time the underdog wins a coin flip on your online site. "It never pays to get in as the favorite on Full Tilt". If they believe it, it will work to your advantage. Maybe they don't raise with their Aces because they "always get cracked". Maybe the check their nut flush draw because "I never hit". That's a mistake that makes you money.Ask anyone how often their Aces get cracked - specially limit players where it's harder to protect your hand. They'll probably tell you something in the range of 25 - 50%. Then look at their PT stats if they have a decent number of hands. My AA wins 81% of the time. It's just that you remember the times it was cracked more than the times it won.

[doox 15]

The better you are, the more chance you have of being unlucky. By this, I mean that if you're a good player, you will more often than not get your money in while you're ahead. Just the larger amount of times that you'll be ahead will increase the amount of times you get unlucky, just not the percentage. The times that you get your money in with the worst hand will be more rare, so those suckouts won't seem as probable.

[SavageHenry 0]

you make your own luck by being aggressive. The best example i can think of is Tuan Le at Foxwoods when he came over Bradley Berman's KK with AK when i believe a lot of pros might have mucked based on Bradley's table image. Tuan sucked out with an A on the river and that pot enabled him to win the tourney. In a 20k guaranteed on the first hand of the final table i was still in push mode from the short handed play before the FT and i overplayed a pair of 10s from UTG. I had chips to make a normal raise but i pushed all in. I got called by KK and AA and hit my 10. I tripled up and knocked out two people and ended up getting first place and winning 5.5k for my biggest tourney win.In that same tourney i was getting low on chips after the first break. A shortstack moved in from EP and it was folded around to me with 10 9 suited. i was getting just about the right odds to call and even though i would be crippled if i lost i called and he had 88. I ended up winning that pot and those chips bought me the time to pick up some big hands later. You want to be lucky ? Gamble more.As a side note. DN has said before in interviews that he will make a bad call just because he knows if he wins he will be in good shape to make it deep and or/win the tourney.

[ricker 0]

THANK YOU! This was exactly what I was looking for, to know whether or not a "lifetime" of playing poker was long enough to completely level the playing field or, if after even a lifetime of poker, if some were "unlucky" or "lucky" enough to show statistically significant deviation above or below what could be considered "neutral" statistics...The thing about a poker "lifetime" however is that obviously, everything can turn on a dime and do a complete reversal. As far as I believe I am deviating from neutral statistics to the "unlucky" side, tomorrow I could have a run lasting several months that would be equally "lucky".

I often wondered the same thing as well....cause isn't the long term = infinite?