goose 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Just wondering what your guys thoughts are on his ability to win a tournament like the UB/Party/PStars/FT $500K, 750K, or 1MIL guaranteed?Can live tournament play translate to this type of online tournament? Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 yes Link to post Share on other sites
phlegm 6 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Highly unlikely. But now that i see your avatar, you just may be on to something. Link to post Share on other sites
InertGrudge 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Absolutely no question about it.General poker skill translate well from live to online or visa versa. Hence why players like JohnnyBax have performed extremely well live and someone like Raymer can place second in the PS Mil.If you're good, you're good. And DN is good. Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 The edge he loses from not sitting at the same table, face-to-face with the other players would be made up for by the lower quality of play.But he would be in trouble if one of those guys with cheat-bots was in the tourney, so he better have his tinfoil ready for some johnny-on-the-spot haberdashery.Monty Link to post Share on other sites
rookie2619 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Just wondering what your guys thoughts are on his ability to win a tournament like the UB/Party/PStars/FT $500K, 750K, or 1MIL guaranteed?Can live tournament play translate to this type of online tournament?Have you seen his results from on-line play? I dont think he can. Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 What are cheat-bots ? and if theyre those things that let other people see your cards, thats bs.anyone winning these tournaments is hard, they ahve several thousand players, so not even someone like Ivey or Antonius could just 'decide' to win one. But yes, real life skills can be applied to online poker.it would be interesting to see if someone like Negreanu could crush the $5 SNGs, but the players not knowing it was him (so theyd just play normally) Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 What are cheat-bots ? and if theyre those things that let other people see your cards, thats bs.anyone winning these tournaments is hard, they ahve several thousand players, so not even someone like Ivey or Antonius could just 'decide' to win one. But yes, real life skills can be applied to online poker.it would be interesting to see if someone like Negreanu could crush the $5 SNGs, but the players not knowing it was him (so theyd just play normally)the use of the word haberdashery should indicate the tone of the statement Link to post Share on other sites
goose 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Author Share Posted April 17, 2006 my issue is that these tournaments are so heavily dominated by preflop play that they would offset his two greatest strengths: reads and post-flop play. It's a certain breed of preflop play that seems to bring success in the tournaments, and I'm just curious (I'm not saying he can't/won't/shouldn't etc.) as to how he would fare. Link to post Share on other sites
fckthis 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 my issue is that these tournaments are so heavily dominated by preflop play that they would offset his two greatest strengths: reads and post-flop play. It's a certain breed of preflop play that seems to bring success in the tournaments, and I'm just curious (I'm not saying he can't/won't/shouldn't etc.) as to how he would fare.of course he could win. I could win. Chris Moneymaker could too.Consistently place in the money? Now thats a different question. Link to post Share on other sites
mosley 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 it seems like his live reads give him a pretty huge advantage. that, and his ability to get people talking. i'm sure he could win it online but it's probably more profitable for him to play live. Link to post Share on other sites
TheMulletBurden 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 LOL. To those who said he couldn't, are you retarded? The funniest part is that probably everybody who said "no" plays online tourneys themselves. Yeah, one of the top players in the world probably has no shot, but I ****ing LOVE your chances. Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 LOL. To those who said he couldn't, are you retarded? The funniest part is that probably everybody who said "no" plays online tourneys themselves. Yeah, one of the top players in the world probably has no shot, but I ****ing LOVE your chances. loool Link to post Share on other sites
DB10-2 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 the use of the word haberdashery should indicate the tone of the statementplus infinity. Link to post Share on other sites
thunderdan70 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 plus infinity.I think he could take one down.Moneymaker, Raymer and Scotty Fischman have all had some big cashes on line. I think his strength by far is live play, but dont count him out Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 It's not even a question of whether he could take one down, I don't see how this is even a thread. Obviously the luck factor is increased in online play vs. a flesh and blood tourney, but great and good players still consistently cash in MTTs more than average, bad or terrible players. He probably wouldn't cash as often online, but he'd still cash. The only problem is that playing online MTTs is 100% EV- for someone playing at the level he is playing.Monty Link to post Share on other sites
DrawingDeadInDM 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 LOL. To those who said he couldn't, are you retarded? The funniest part is that probably everybody who said "no" plays online tourneys themselves. Yeah, one of the top players in the world probably has no shot, but I ****ing LOVE your chances. Heh.Nice..It's not even a question of whether he could take one down, I don't see how this is even a thread. Obviously the luck factor is increased in online play vs. a flesh and blood tourney, but great and good players still consistently cash in MTTs more than average, bad or terrible players. He probably wouldn't cash as often online, but he'd still cash. The only problem is that playing online MTTs is 100% EV- for someone playing at the level he is playing.MontyThe bolded sentence is horribly, unjustifiably, wrong.Three words; Return on Investment. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 There're a lot more players in a typical million dollar guaranteed tournament than there are in a typical WSOP or WPT event (not counting the main event, which is probably pretty close).And the players are a lot better.But it's obviously possible. I wouldnt expect him to take first any time soon though. Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Heh.Nice..The bolded sentence is horribly, unjustifiably, wrong.Three words; Return on Investment.Not sure what his hourly rate is in cash games over the past few years, but I'd be willing to bet that it would eclipse by leaps and bounds any ROI he could obtain playing in online MTTs. For people who haven't won 7.7 mil in tourneys, and have bankrolls that can't absorb the cost of an Aston Martin, the big, online MTT makes sense.For people who can win playing very high, it makes no sense at all.Add to that the fact that if he is completely even to win either a) a televised poker tournament or b ) an online MTT, then he is still better off playing in the televised tournament because it potentially gives his business operations more exposure to the poker-playing consumer population.If he doesn't have a cash game he can kill, and there isn't any tournament or other event or appearance that will be on television he can do, then yeah he can go have a great shot at cashing in an online MTT. It's still EV- otherwise.Monty Link to post Share on other sites
Rasty 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 There're a lot more players in a typical million dollar guaranteed tournament than there are in a typical WSOP or WPT event (not counting the main event, which is probably pretty close).And the players are a lot better.You meant to say "And the players are a lot better at online poker" right?Right? Link to post Share on other sites
DrawingDeadInDM 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Not sure what his hourly rate is in cash games over the past few years, but I'd be willing to bet that it would eclipse by leaps and bounds any ROI he could obtain playing in online MTTs. MontyMy mistake. I thought you were simply comparing his live tournament play to his online tournament prospects.His hourly rate for cash games since 2005 is over 1k dollars an hour, for whatever that's worth. My thought was that instead of investing 10k into a single live tourney, the same 10k put into 200(216) buy ins for the big Sunday tourneys--that he would likely make more money long term playing just online--if that makes sense. That 10k would buy him into 47 "big" tourneys (216 buy in)--and that he'd likely make more in 47 'big' online tourneys than he would from one live cash. ..now, that's not paying any attention to an hourly earn, but, you understand where I'm coming from, I'm sure. Although, in the future, I really wouldn't compare cash games and tournaments. Just a thought.Good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 My mistake. I thought you were simply comparing his live tournament play to his online tournament prospects.His hourly rate for cash games since 2005 is over 1k dollars an hour, for whatever that's worth. My thought was that instead of investing 10k into a single live tourney, the same 10k put into 200(216) buy ins for the big Sunday tourneys--that he would likely make more money long term playing just online--if that makes sense. That 10k would buy him into 47 "big" tourneys (216 buy in)--and that he'd likely make more in 47 'big' online tourneys than he would from one live cash. ..now, that's not paying any attention to an hourly earn, but, you understand where I'm coming from, I'm sure. Although, in the future, I really wouldn't compare cash games and tournaments. Just a thought.Good luck.I don't think that's off really at all. I just think that when your poker playing career is approaching the status of a fully-operating corporate enterprise, that playing in online MTTs discards a large part of the value you are getting on what you do with your money.DN as a poker player may be best at this or best at that. But DN as a poker player and a celebrity in poker has limited time resources and the opportunity cost of playing in a bunch of MTTs online includes a lot of lost revenue from other sources, cash games, live tourneys, increased visibility, appearances, etc etc etc.I doubt there are any publicly available figures nor would it be easy to put figures on it, but a single appearance by an already-recognized professional poker player is worth a lot of money away from the poker table. Same goes for a WPT event or playing on superstars etc. Monty Link to post Share on other sites
DrawingDeadInDM 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 I don't think that's off really at all. I just think that when your poker playing career is approaching the status of a fully-operating corporate enterprise, that playing in online MTTs discards a large part of the value you are getting on what you do with your money.DN as a poker player may be best at this or best at that. But DN as a poker player and a celebrity in poker has limited time resources and the opportunity cost of playing in a bunch of MTTs online includes a lot of lost revenue from other sources, cash games, live tourneys, increased visibility, appearances, etc etc etc.MontyAhhh..I see, so we're making a subjective question even more subjective by trying to factor in 'increased visibility', 'appearances', and 'a lot of lost revenue from other sources'. Boring.Good effort, though. Link to post Share on other sites
GWCGWC 83 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 DD wins and it's not even close. Link to post Share on other sites
FullMontyM1 0 Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 Are recognizable poker pros spending more time playing online MTTs or live games and flesh and blood tourneys?Any good economic analysis has to include intagibles just like you include reads in your figuring of whether to fold, call, bet, raise. Putting exact figures on the intangibles isn't easy, but it's certainly necessary if you want to get the most out of your money.If all the poker pros we know and love are spending all their time playing online MTTs, then I am obviously wrong.Monty Link to post Share on other sites
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