Rant Warning: Mtts And Skill

[hblask 1]

For a while I was convinced that getting into the money in MTTs is at least 50% luck. After some encouraging words last week from people in the strategy section, I thought I'd give it another try, and now I'm sure it's at least 97.3% luck. And to answer the next obvious question, yes, those people who make it to the final table at the WPT year after year are just the luckiest people on earth.I know, you are all going to say that I'm just playing poorly, but if I flop top set on an uncoordinated board, I'm calling that all-in every time, and losing some of those. In a $5 tourney, I will be faced with all-in bets 4 or 5 or 6 times before I'm in the money. I need to win all of them to stay in (since it tends to be the big stacks trying to push people around who make those crazy bets), so even 75/25 favorites are not enough to win 5 in a row (roughly speaking). Then I'm out or short-stacked and the writing is on the wall. (Last four tournaments, forced all-in or mostly-in on hands that, when turned up, show me at least 2-1 and as much as 4-1 favorites. I hit my share of those, so I'm not complaining about bad beats, but the odds always catch up and I'm done.)Oh, and I've tried just avoiding those confrontations, with predictable results -- eaten alive by the blinds.Maybe I need to enter higher entry-fee tourneys, where people don't feel they have so little at stake that they will chase ANYTHING, but it seems silly to move to higher limits when I am just throwing money away at lower limits.OK, I'm done ranting about this until the next time I decide it can't be that bad and try one of these stupid tournaments again.

[hardkorbeatz 0]

def dont go higher. just keep chipping away if u want to win.. u will lose your share just like all of us

[Royal_Tour 0]

I finally took 1 down this weekend after 9 final table showings in the last month, soo many top 10 finishes but no wins, and now this past weekend, i scored 1.I'm gonna safely say that making a final table is 80% skill and 20% luckbut winning MTT's is 80% luck and 20% skillcheers idiot

[krup24 0]

I finally took 1 down this weekend after 9 final table showings in the last month, soo many top 10 finishes but no wins, and now this past weekend, i scored 1.I'm gonna safely say that making a final table is 80% skill and 20% luckbut winning MTT's is 80% luck and 20% skillcheers idiot

Man it would be cool if you would update you blog so we could read about this. Like how much the score was.

[mk 11]

Smash is back!!!

[hblask 1]

def dont go higher. just keep chipping away if u want to win.. u will lose your share just like all of us

OK, let me ask you (and everyone else) a question, rather than just phrasing it as the rant in my original post: I am a profitable low limit NL player, slowly trying to work my way up to higher NL ring games. Assume that I take your advice and keep trying at low entry fee MTTs.. for those of you who do this, is your hourly rate better, worse, or about the same as the ring games? (this is all online stuff.) What percent of the time are you in the money?As a followup to that, in the ring games, I am usually either 1st or 2nd tightest player in the room, and also one of the more aggressive post-flop (medium aggressive pre-flop). Is this a successful strategy in MTTs? I've limped into the money a couple times, but not often enough to be profitable. Will TAG get me into the top 10 enough to pay for all those bad beats from the original post? Or will the lucky maniacs always eat me alive and I have to adopt a bit of their tactics?

[Royal_Tour 0]

OK, let me ask you (and everyone else) a question, rather than just phrasing it as the rant in my original post: I am a profitable low limit NL player, slowly trying to work my way up to higher NL ring games. Assume that I take your advice and keep trying at low limit MTTs.. for those of you who do this, is your hourly rate better, worse, or about the same as the ring games? (this is all online stuff.) What percent of the time are you in the money?As a followup to that, in the ring games, I am usually either 1st or 2nd tightest player in the room, and also one of the more aggressive post-flop (medium aggressive pre-flop). Is this a successful strategy in MTTs? I've limped into the money a couple times, but not often enough to be profitable. Will TAG get me into the top 10 enough to pay for all those bad beats from the original post? Or will the lucky maniacs always eat me alive and I have to adopt a bit of their tactics?

Tourney play is like apples and oranges to cash games play.U need to learn two different styles of poker to do this, and i suggest reading books.also, cash games wiill always seem more profitable, especially if u fail to Final Table. or at least cash often enough.If you can become a strong tourney player, there is definately some potential to be much better than cash games. (granted that what u want).if u play MTT's all day everyday and can final table once every 3 or 4 events played that you're probably doing pretty well cash wise.where with cash games, u can have winnings, losing or even break even sessions. which makes going a full week with no profit very likely.but of course, same with MTT's.

[7s7c 0]

Just to make the money in large low buy in MTT takes quite a bit of time to play through and then you actually do have to win your share of coin flips or even have your overpair vs pair hold up each time as well...with the ROI in those lowlimit long MTTs, you're probably better off just playing lowlimit NL in this case to get a better return on your hourly rate.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Just to make the money in large low buy in MTT takes quite a bit of time to play through and then you actually do have to win your share of coin flips or even have your overpair vs pair hold up each time as well...with the ROI in those lowlimit long MTTs, you're probably better off just playing lowlimit NL in this case to get a better return on your hourly rate.

yes.this is a big problem, in a 5.00 MTT, your chances at a Final table in a field of 300+ is very difficult.and even if u cash u might make 10 bucks for your 3 hours of workwhere in a cash game u can buy in for 5 double up in 1 hand, double up again. but if you're playing a larger buy in, with smaller field with a nice final table pay out., it can be very profitable.

[MasterLJ 0]

Cash games and MTT are apples and lugnuts.If you were to look at the hand history of someone who made it to the final table in a MTT it would read like so:Hands: Played 30 of 175 (most of those are blinds)Important hands:Hand: 99flop:A92 result: doubled up off of AQHand: AKflop:K 9 2result: doubled up of of KJHand: AAboard:2 5 9 K Qresult: doubled up off JJetc etc.In other words, they don't play many hands until the Final Table.

[Norhas99 0]

I finally took 1 down this weekend after 9 final table showings in the last month, soo many top 10 finishes but no wins, and now this past weekend, i scored 1.I'm gonna safely say that making a final table is 80% skill and 20% luckbut winning MTT's is 80% luck and 20% skillcheers idiot

This is probably the stupidest post in the entire history of this board.cheers idiot

[turd ferguson 1]

Moving up because you can't beat your current limit is always the answer to your problems.

[Royal_Tour 0]

This is probably the stupidest post in the entire history of this board.cheers idiot

umm, No. because You're a fool who failed to notice these posts which are probably the most ridiculous statements made in the last 3 months.Norhas99 post Friday, March 24th, 2006, 11:11 AMPost #6Poker Forum NewbieGroup: MembersPosts: 50Joined: November 14th, 2005From: Iowa City, IowaMember No.: 13,284 I play them all the time. Your only risking a fixed amount of money to lose. Youll probably play more of them when you lose $300 on a single hand in a cash game when you hold say, KK against KQ and a couple queens come on the flopSooo.. You're response here was based on the fact that you might lose with KK vs KQ?also anotherNorhas99 post Monday, November 21st, 2005, 3:24 PMPost #1Poker Forum NewbieGroup: MembersPosts: 50Joined: November 14th, 2005From: Iowa City, IowaMember No.: 13,284 Is this site for real? I am not interested in it whatsoever, just wondering if this software really works and people can really see my hole cards?You started a thread asking if this scam of a site will actually show u peoples hole cards??good god."hjdsyaudhjkqwhdoqw" i just threw a copy of super systems on my keyboard and it made more sense than you

[Norhas99 0]

umm, No. because You're a fool who failed to notice these posts which are probably the most ridiculous statements made in the last 3 months.Norhas99 post Friday, March 24th, 2006, 11:11 AMPost #6Poker Forum NewbieGroup: MembersPosts: 50Joined: November 14th, 2005From: Iowa City, IowaMember No.: 13,284 I play them all the time. Your only risking a fixed amount of money to lose. Youll probably play more of them when you lose $300 on a single hand in a cash game when you hold say, KK against KQ and a couple queens come on the flopSooo.. You're response here was based on the fact that you might lose with KK vs KQ?also anotherNorhas99 post Monday, November 21st, 2005, 3:24 PMPost #1Poker Forum NewbieGroup: MembersPosts: 50Joined: November 14th, 2005From: Iowa City, IowaMember No.: 13,284 Is this site for real? I am not interested in it whatsoever, just wondering if this software really works and people can really see my hole cards?You started a thread asking if this scam of a site will actually show u peoples hole cards??good god."hjdsyaudhjkqwhdoqw" i just threw a copy of super systems on my keyboard and it made more sense than you

LOL!!!! You had to look up some random previous post of mine (one of my first) to try and ummm, well, i really dont know what you are trying to prove. I sense fear and weakness.Cheers idiot

[Royal_Tour 0]

LOL!!!! You had to look up some random previous post of mine (one of my first) to try and ummm, well, i really dont know what you are trying to prove. I sense fear and weakness.Cheers idiot

awww man, thats it.. I thought you would prove to be worth my time. I guess not, you're just another teneight wannabep.s. that one was from march.. looks to me like you really dont enjoy money if you dont want to be in 300 dollar pots with KK vs KQcheers idiot. (and stop stealing my punch line, you're too stupid to be this clever

[turd ferguson 1]

I'm gonna safely say that making a final table is 80% skill and 20% luckbut winning MTT's is 80% luck and 20% skillcheers idiot

You guys are both stupid for arguing, and I didn't read the whole thing. But I have to say that this is pretty far off.

[Royal_Tour 0]

You guys are both stupid for arguing, and I didn't read the whole thing. But I have to say that this is pretty far off.

I'm talking about making a FT, and then being able to make the win at the FT.incase you slower folks cant follow that.if you wanna argue that there is a lot more luck involved, i'd have to strongly dissagree.If you think there is more skill when winning at a FT, than i'd have to say you[ve never been faced with 20k/40k blinds with a stack of 200k.

[turd ferguson 1]

I'm talking about making a FT, and then being able to make the win at the FT.incase you slower folks cant follow that.if you wanna argue that there is a lot more luck involved, i'd have to strongly dissagree.If you think there is more skill when winning at a FT, than i'd have to say you[ve never been faced with 20k/40k blinds with a stack of 200k.

You really think that making a final table is 80% skill in any given tournament? Give me a break.

[HGJ18622 0]

For a while I was convinced that getting into the money in MTTs is at least 50% luck. After some encouraging words last week from people in the strategy section, I thought I'd give it another try, and now I'm sure it's at least 97.3% luck. And to answer the next obvious question, yes, those people who make it to the final table at the WPT year after year are just the luckiest people on earth.I know, you are all going to say that I'm just playing poorly, but if I flop top set on an uncoordinated board, I'm calling that all-in every time, and losing some of those. In a $5 tourney, I will be faced with all-in bets 4 or 5 or 6 times before I'm in the money. I need to win all of them to stay in (since it tends to be the big stacks trying to push people around who make those crazy bets), so even 75/25 favorites are not enough to win 5 in a row (roughly speaking). Then I'm out or short-stacked and the writing is on the wall. (Last four tournaments, forced all-in or mostly-in on hands that, when turned up, show me at least 2-1 and as much as 4-1 favorites. I hit my share of those, so I'm not complaining about bad beats, but the odds always catch up and I'm done.)Oh, and I've tried just avoiding those confrontations, with predictable results -- eaten alive by the blinds.Maybe I need to enter higher entry-fee tourneys, where people don't feel they have so little at stake that they will chase ANYTHING, but it seems silly to move to higher limits when I am just throwing money away at lower limits.OK, I'm done ranting about this until the next time I decide it can't be that bad and try one of these stupid tournaments again.

Jesus...I am so tired of hearing about how "I have to win 5 all-in's in a row" to survive. Does anyone ever take into account that maybe you should be playing some of those confrontations with stacks that are smaller than yours? Yes, if you play 5 coinflips with larger stacks, you are asking for trouble. How about playing smart, positional poker and only engaging those with considerably smaller stacks unless you've got the goods. If you win the first of those confrontations, you should be able to fade a bad beat along the way. In short, your post was short-sighted, whiny, and basically just dumb.

[Royal_Tour 0]

You really think that making a final table is 80% skill in any given tournament? Give me a break.

Ya, its easily 80% skill.MTT's arent clasified by the WSOP ME.100 or 200 player MTT's are easily 80% skill.i dont like bringing it up but Spademan and his Neg-O showings last year are a perfect example of how skill, and a little luck once or twice, is the key to a final table

[turd ferguson 1]

Ya, its easily 80% skill.MTT's arent clasified by the WSOP ME.100 or 200 player MTT's are easily 80% skill.i dont like bringing it up but Spademan and his Neg-O showings last year are a perfect example of how skill, and a little luck once or twice, is the key to a final table

Your Spademan example is ridiculous. First of all, the sample size isn't nearly large enough. Secondly, even if it was, Spademan didn't final table four out of every five tourneys. You're better than this.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Your Spademan example is ridiculous. First of all, the sample size isn't nearly large enough. Secondly, even if it was, Spademan didn't final table four out of every five tourneys. You're better than this.

80 % skill doesnt mean you're goin to FInal table 80% of the time.comon man, golf is mostly skill, but you dont see the worlds best player winning every 2nd tournament he plays in.

[turd ferguson 1]

80 % skill doesnt mean you're goin to FInal table 80% of the time.comon man, golf is mostly skill, but you dont see the worlds best player winning every 2nd tournament he plays in.

Then what do you base that 80% on? You just pull that number out of your ass?

[Royal_Tour 0]

Then what do you base that 80% on? You just pull that number out of your ass?

i based it on a ratio. I'm not saying that a good MTT player wil make a final table 80% of the time, i'm saying that to consistanlty get that far in tourneys, you will need that strong of a skill to luck, because luck might build your stack early, or win you a all in and double you up, but its not near enough to make it consistant.ya sure the number came out of my *** , maybe a 4:1 ratio of skill over luck would have been better .Some people are just really really good at MTT play, Its as simple as that, They have set strategies, build a stack, steal blinds, sense weakness and steal more.

[turd ferguson 1]

i based it on a ratio. I'm not saying that a good MTT player wil make a final table 80% of the time, i'm saying that to consistanlty get that far in tourneys, you will need that strong of a skill to luck, because luck might build your stack early, or win you a all in and double you up, but its not near enough to make it consistant.ya sure the number came out of my *** , maybe a 4:1 ratio of skill over luck would have been better .Some people are just really really good at MTT play, Its as simple as that, They have set strategies, build a stack, steal blinds, sense weakness and steal more.

I can barely even make sense of this post.