dapokerbum 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Okay so I know variance is a huge factor in poker that is why I am starting to get scared to go and play. I have come out ahead (and by ahead I am marking at a 10bb increase in bankroll) the last 5 times i have gone to the casino.My question to everyone out there is what is the most winning sessions you have had in a row (using the above for the earmark...10bb increase in bankroll). Hopefully it is around ten and i shouldn't be getting worried quite yet about variance coming in and biting me in the butt. Link to post Share on other sites
MyPlayIsRAB 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 probably about 6, right now actually. ive sat at .5/1nl and doubled through 4 of the 6 times within the first 10 hands calling off donks.. and the other times ill grind about a 20$ win Link to post Share on other sites
Ryan Rizice 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 When i first started playing full time, i won every day the first 3 weeks i played, so i think it was 18 sessions. nice wins too. Anywhere from $140 to $500. Nice little way to start Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 When i first started playing full time, i won every day the first 3 weeks i played, so i think it was 18 sessions. nice wins too. Anywhere from $140 to $500. Nice little way to startAwesome that is a great way to start a career for sure. Okay so i guess I shouldn't be too scared of variance just yet. By the way what was the 19th session like was it brutal or just a litlle loss. Link to post Share on other sites
mclark340 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I will let you know when I am done with my first session. It started 5 years ago and will end when I am dead. Link to post Share on other sites
Ryan Rizice 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 it was a small loss, nothing even close to eliminating the wins. in regards to a variance downswing, having great BR management skills will diminish the affect on gameplay. For me, my playing style almost mirrored my financial security, which is a horrible way to play. just enjoy poker as a game, make correct decisions and the wins usually keep coming Link to post Share on other sites
turd ferguson 1 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I went on about a 15 session win streak at my bi-weekly home game once. It was just a small game full of bad players though, and it was never more than a couple hundred bucks each time. Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 I went on about a 15 session win streak at my bi-weekly home game once. It was just a small game full of bad players though, and it was never more than a couple hundred bucks each time.I'd say that's pretty good even for a homegame Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I've had one in a row. Does that make a row? Link to post Share on other sites
fleung22 1 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I just lost live for the first time this Sunday...that was my 8th time in a casino so 7 times in a row.But online I've gone about 12 days in a row...it's easier to manage variance from multitabling. Don't go in there thinking that it's time to lose though...until the cards spit in your face, be confident and kick some butt! Link to post Share on other sites
OrzyVibe 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I played 3 times in Vegas in February (Ballys and Caesar's P.) and came out over $1,000 to the good. I won $45 and $56 the last 2 times in my neighborhood games. Tonight, I'll play online for the first time....I'm preparing for the worst. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 dapokerbum,number of past sesssion in a row you have won has nothing to do with the likelihood you will lose next time.like flipping a coin.unless you play differently and start making more -EV decisionsmath is fun. Link to post Share on other sites
Batch 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Okay so I know variance is a huge factor in poker that is why I am starting to get scared to go and play. I have come out ahead (and by ahead I am marking at a 10bb increase in bankroll) the last 5 times i have gone to the casino.My question to everyone out there is what is the most winning sessions you have had in a row (using the above for the earmark...10bb increase in bankroll). Hopefully it is around ten and i shouldn't be getting worried quite yet about variance coming in and biting me in the butt.one of my buddies held a home game 1-2 nl where he won 51 out of 55 sessions Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 dapokerbum,number of past sesssion in a row you have won has nothing to do with the likelihood you will lose next time.like flipping a coin.unless you play differently and start making more -EV decisionsmath is fun.Yes but won't you agree that the more times you win the more likely it is that you will have a losing session. As your sessions head to infinity you are going to be having more wins than losses (if you are a winning player), but there are going to be losses so with more wins under your belt you are going to have a losing session soon.Does that make me play any better or any worse no I just keep making the same decisions and hope that I don't have the cards spit in my face...I Love math too Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Yes but won't you agree that the more times you win the more likely it is that you will have a losing session. As your sessions head to infinity you are going to be having more wins than losses (if you are a winning player), but there are going to be losses so with more wins under your belt you are going to have a losing session soon.that is incorrect, to the extent you are trying to correllate past sessions with future expectations.if you win 100 in a row, you are just as likely to win the 101st one as you were the 5th one. in fact..I'm waiting for someone to suggest..actually..that you have a better chance of winning you 101st session, given you have proven yourself to be quite a superior player. To this I say: No, you just have more information now regarding your true expectations. (this ignores the fact your gaining experince though, so, if anything, your chances may in fact be higher now. But if we assume no increase in edge over others, then your expectations of a winning session will never change) Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 in fact..I'm waiting for someone to suggest..actually..that you have a better chance of winning you 101st session, given you have proven yourself to be quite a superior player. To this I say: No, you just have more information now regarding your true expectations. (this ignores the fact your gaining experince though, so, if anything, your chances may in fact be higher now. But if we assume no increase in edge over others, then your expectations of a winning session will never change)Did you just have an argument with yourself? Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 that is incorrect, to the extent you are trying to correllate past sessions with future expectations.if you win 100 in a row, you are just as likely to win the 101st one as you were the 5th one. in fact..I'm waiting for someone to suggest..actually..that you have a better chance of winning you 101st session, given you have proven yourself to be quite a superior player. To this I say: No, you just have more information now regarding your true expectations. (this ignores the fact your gaining experince though, so, if anything, your chances may in fact be higher now. But if we assume no increase in edge over others, then your expectations of a winning session will never change)This is true and it is the old "Gamblers Fallacy" which says to keep increasing bets in order to eliminate house edge. I agree to that point but the law of probability is what i was using in order to come up with my statement.The probablilty that you will have a losing session after x amount of winnig sessions increases as your sessions head to infinity. That is how I should've worded it because the other way of course you are absolutley correct. Link to post Share on other sites
FoxwoodsPro 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Stop being a wuss, wtf...just play and try to focus on decisions not outcomes...You are def a donkey.J Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 The probablilty that you will have a losing session after x amount of winnig sessions increases as your sessions head to infinity. That is how I should've worded it because the other way of course you are absolutley correct.if you are saying that you are less likely to win 55 in a row than you are 54 in a row if your "single independent session win expectation is, say 70%", then I agree. But your original post suggested that you think you are more likely to have a losing session after several winning sessions, than your are otherwise expected. And that is incorrect.taking what you said in the quoted part, I still think we are not agreeing. so, for now, I don't think it's a misunderstanding, as much as I just think you are wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
ROTOR 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 go with your gut. If you feel a rush, keep playing. Sometimes I get in the zone and know I can win or dominate at a table. Other days it's just up and down, and once i get frustrated i just leave. But when i hit a streak of winning sessions I wont skip a beat. This is typically when i make my most money as the following sessions are played with confidence and the ability to make bolder calls. You wont be scared to put your money in the middle when u feel that you have the best of it. It's kind of like when your hot on a basketball court and you just quite cant miss. Your reads and plays are dead on and you feel like you can never lose at this game of poker. Of course, a few days later you put up a brick and its back to square one......damn it, I hate this game!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 ************************8probability to flip a coin Tails 1 time = 1/2probability to flip a coin Tails 5 times in a row = 1/32probability to flip a coin Tails 6 times in a row = 1/64probability to flip a coin Tails on the 6th trial given you flipped it Tails the previous 5 times = 1/2that's what I'm saying.I love Math. Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 so, for now, I don't think it's a misunderstanding, as much as I just think you are wrong.lol...6 or so months in the strat forum have sure hardened you up. i remember the kindler, gentler actuary from when you first started posting. Link to post Share on other sites
NicksDad1970 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I had a 6$ winning session last night while I was drinking my 5$ latte. So I won a buck......Wait, I forgot I tipped the guy a buck.Breaking even is better than normal though. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 lol...6 or so months in the strat forum have sure hardened you up. i remember the kindler, gentler actuary from when you first started posting.nah.. daPokerbum knows me.Anyone in strategy knows my styleGeneral will harden you up with all the crap.this is actually a good GF thread in comparisonand who are you to talk!You never come to strategy anymore to help the young'uns! and me! Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 nah.. daPokerbum knows me.Anyone in strategy knows my styleGeneral will harden you up with all the crap.this is actually a good GF thread in comparisonand who are you to talk!You never come to strategy anymore to help the young'uns! and me!Ha! There's no way I could help you...I've barely been able to play for the past few months, so you've WAY eclipsed the times when I could have any input on your game (not that I was ever any better than you). The good news is that starting in July I'm working from home, so I'll finally have time to focus on playing seriously.How's your ascent up the poker ranks going these days? Are you at 2-4 full ring these days? Link to post Share on other sites
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