stock market thread

[Yoda 1]

Damn, coulda shorted further! Oh well, at least I held on to half the shorts. Offsets the pain a little. I am trying to avoid guessing and timing every little move. But when the market buys too much or sells too much it's nice to take the contrarian side.

[WrongWay 0]

I will bet you on this. The bet needs to be 5 years, but that shouldn't matter to you, since BAC will be bankrupt by that time.$500 sound ok to you?

I've never said BAC will cease to exist. I said they are insolvant, as is every financial company. That does not preclude the goverenment using trillion of dollars to save them, diluting or wiping out shareholder equity.I wouldn't buy the stock of any of the financials.So, what exactly is this bet you speak of?That BAC was a good buy at 30? Well, it is a better buy at 25, but I'm still not convinced that won't be going way the f lower!Or, is the bet that all the bad news was already priced in 18 months ago when I was being called all kinds of names?

[WrongWay 0]

Damn, coulda shorted further! Oh well, at least I held on to half the shorts. Offsets the pain a little. I am trying to avoid guessing and timing every little move. But when the market buys too much or sells too much it's nice to take the contrarian side.

The foundation of the economy have not changed. Wages have not kept up with inflation and people replaced income with debt. They now have to trim 10%+ from consumer spending just to stop getting further into debt. Take that hit to the economy, and let it echo through a few times. Then add on a 50% drop in finaicial activities and let that echo through the economy a few times. Easily 20-30% drop in GDP right there. Now mix in $10+ trillion in defaults resulting in $5+ trillion in real losses.We're soooooo far from the bottom.The government and Fed are still attacking it as if it is a Wall Street problem. This is not a Wall Street problem. It is a Main Street problem. With wages up 20% and infaltion up 50% over the last 15 years, we can not function unless we are able to spend 110% of our incomes without ever having to pay on or back any of the debt.We're at a significant inflection point in the eceonomy, where an economy based on debt reaches maximum carrying capacity, then begins the great unwind.No $700 billion ever printed out of thin air is enough to correct the $15 trillion in excess debt and let us return to adding $1 trillion-$2 trillion a year to that debt.

[dapokerbum 0]

Same old stuff

You need some new material or do you just like to see yourself in print everyday spewing the same thing over and over

[WrongWay 0]

So, what does the Fed and the government throw at this next?Lowering interest rates and killing the dollar got us 6 months. The TAF and treasury swaps with primary brokers got us another 6 months. The $130 billion stimulus got us a quarter. Using Fed money to backstop forced mergers helped for awhile. Freddie and Fannie takeovers got us a few weeks. $700 billion to buy bad assets, then directly buying commercial paper, and finally, just buying stock in the banks, has gotten us a day here and a day there. What do they throw at this next?How long until they start attacking this like it is a Main Street problem, not a Wall Street problem?

[grocery_mony 8]

Fuck it. I am pulling out of the market and investing in shotguns and lottery tickets

[grocery_mony 8]

not looking to good in europe and asia whats the bottom 7000?

[Yoda 1]

not looking to good in europe and asia whats the bottom 7000?

::throws a glass of cold water on grocery's face:: Calm the fuck down

[WrongWay 0]

So, we rallied 700 points off the bottom after US and European leaders agree to meet over the weekend to "overhaul the global financial system"..... What the he ll does that mean? So, we got a 700 point rally today and maybe get a 200 pt up day tomorrow buying on the rumor, and a 700 point drop again on Monday as people sell on the news... then mid-next week we'll be right here threatening to break through the lows again, and they'll have to make some new announcement to get a 1-2 day pop that fades again. It is like Groundhog Day; same thing over and over and over and over....

[El Guapo 8]

So, we rallied 700 points off the bottom after US and European leaders agree to meet over the weekend to "overhaul the global financial system"..... What the he ll does that mean? So, we got a 700 point rally today and maybe get a 200 pt up day tomorrow buying on the rumor, and a 700 point drop again on Monday as people sell on the news... then mid-next week we'll be right here threatening to break through the lows again, and they'll have to make some new announcement to get a 1-2 day pop that fades again. It is like Groundhog Day; same thing over and over and over and over....

Google and IBM both beat profit expectations. This is what the stock market is usually based on. Plus you still have strong companies trading with a PE Ratio's under 20 and some under 10. Ridiculously low, even if we are in a recession.GS PE got down to below 4 at one point.

[donk4life 34]

So I was thinking about this the other day, and it may be flawed thinking, but here it goes.If the government wants to put more money back into the economy, wouldn't suppressing the price of oil do that? If you lower the cost of gas by say $1.50-$2, people would ultimately be saving quite a bit of money on every fill-up, and in turn they'd use that money to go out and buy some other product with that saved money, thus putting more money into the economic system?Maybe I'm missing something here, but that idea just popped into my head..

[HollywoodAFD 0]

Fuck it. I am pulling out of the market and investing in shotguns and lottery tickets

Redneck

So I was thinking about this the other day, and it may be flawed thinking, but here it goes.If the government wants to put more money back into the economy, wouldn't suppressing the price of oil do that? If you lower the cost of gas by say $1.50-$2, people would ultimately be saving quite a bit of money on every fill-up, and in turn they'd use that money to go out and buy some other product with that saved money, thus putting more money into the economic system?Maybe I'm missing something here, but that idea just popped into my head..

That works on paper. Unfortunately ... the American consumer doesn't see lower gas prices as extra money to spend. They need cash in hand. Spending an additional $50 per week on gas seems like the end of the world and will give most people an ulcer complaining about it but saving $50 doesn't make one jump for joy and go buy a new flat screen.

[WrongWay 0]

Google and IBM both beat profit expectations. This is what the stock market is usually based on.

But both of those reported after market close and therefore, can't be what caused the 700 pt pop. And, we'd had beats the last couple days that did not cause or sustain pops in the market.Besides, those beats were for July-Sept. That is driving in the rear view mirror as a train wreck occurs right in front of you. IBM's beat was largly on weak dollar, and dollar is up 15% since July and better than 10% since mid-August. If the market was trading on data instead of hope of one of these bailouts actually working, then the data it was trading on was falling retail sales and very high unemployment claims with continuing claims continuing to pile up. Trading on data, the market is all down. Trading on government bailouts is Groundhog Day.. Pop, Drop, Pop, Drop, Pop, Drop....

[WrongWay 0]

If the government wants to put more money back into the economy, wouldn't suppressing the price of oil do that? If you lower the cost of gas by say $1.50-$2, people would ultimately be saving quite a bit of money on every fill-up, and in turn they'd use that money to go out and buy some other product with that saved money, thus putting more money into the economic system?

People don't actually have any money. They have access to varying amounts of debt. Gas is one of those things you have to buy, so you are willing to charge it even if you are trying to not get further into debt.So, while lowering the price of gas may slow the rate at which consumers are approaching the max limit on their credit card, it will not make them run to the mall.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

Oil 14 year low

[grocery_mony 8]

Oil 14 year low

I think you mean monthEarly 2000's was as low as $20 if I recall. I expected it to go back to 60 but over the course of 12 months not in a month.

[El Guapo 8]

I think you mean monthEarly 2000's was as low as $20 if I recall. I expected it to go back to 60 but over the course of 12 months not in a month.

We may see 60 in a couple weeks. It dropped below 70 today. Dollar is gaining on the Euro and other currencies, and as their financial matters fall into what we are going through will strengthen even more.

[Yoda 1]

We may see 60 in a couple weeks. It dropped below 70 today. Dollar is gaining on the Euro and other currencies, and as their financial matters fall into what we are going through will strengthen even more.

Where did all those Canadians go that created a brazillion threads how the USD vs CAD fell below 1.00. Maybe we needs some bumpage!?

[Yoda 1]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/...amp;oref=sloginBuy American. I Am.By WARREN E. BUFFETTPublished: October 16, 2008OmahaTHE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.Why?A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

[El Guapo 8]

Thanks Yoda. Great article.

[aucu 3]

Where did all those Canadians go that created a brazillion threads how the USD vs CAD fell below 1.00. Maybe we needs some bumpage!?

We are still here, the Loon soared on the price of oil, gold, copper and so on and took it on the chin when they did, some just couldn't help taking a victory lap.

[WrongWay 0]

By WARREN E. BUFFETTPublished: October 16, 2008OmahaTHE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher.

I read this article first thing this morning, and he makes a good case, IF you accept the basic premise that this is a Wall Street problem that is spilling over to Main Street. WRONG!! This is a Main Street problem that is spilling over to Wall Street. His basic argument is that the time to buy is when everything looks the bleakest. My counter is that we are a LONG way from everything looking bleakest. Right now it looks bleak for Wall Street, but Main Street continues to hold out hope of some magical government rescue that will aloow them to go back to spending 110% of their income, forever, while just rolling over the debt.I still hear people talking about house prices recovering. I still hear them talk about needing to get debt flowing again so people can buy cars. We're still only at 6.1% unemployment. Next year, when everyone has given up hope of a quick recovery of housing prices, when commercial property is collapsing at a rate that makes residential look like a kiddy-coaster, when unemployment is above 15%, when state and local governments are collapsing left and right, when pension funds are shutting down, when Ford and GM are in bankruptcy, when insurance companies are doubling rates to cover losses or just flat out dropping people, when Europe is desolving the Euro and going back to individual country currencies, when the big hedge funds are collapsing left and right, when people are looking to borrow money for heat instead of for a new car... That will be when people will be REALLY affraid, and when stock prices will be off another 50+%, maybe 75% off today's pricesNote: Notice I did not say anything about food riots, people starving in the streets, the total breakdown of society, etc. I do not see a need to stockpile food, guns, ammo, water, etc. I do not expect a total breakdown of society. I expect the stuff I listed above. Lots of bankruptcies, lots of people that think their savings are safe will be wiped out, people that think they'll be getting a pension will find out they are not. I expect a significant decline in the standard of living. I do expect an increase in crime, but there will always be law and order and an intact society. There will be food on the shelves at the grocery store. We'll gain some ground on the war against obeasity though.

[Quacktastic 106]

I read this article first thing this morning, and he makes a good case, IF you accept the basic premise that this is a Wall Street problem that is spilling over to Main Street. WRONG!! This is a Main Street problem that is spilling over to Wall Street. His basic argument is that the time to buy is when everything looks the bleakest. My counter is that we are a LONG way from everything looking bleakest. Right now it looks bleak for Wall Street, but Main Street continues to hold out hope of some magical government rescue that will aloow them to go back to spending 110% of their income, forever, while just rolling over the debt.I still hear people talking about house prices recovering. I still hear them talk about needing to get debt flowing again so people can buy cars. We're still only at 6.1% unemployment. Next year, when everyone has given up hope of a quick recovery of housing prices, when commercial property is collapsing at a rate that makes residential look like a kiddy-coaster, when unemployment is above 15%, when state and local governments are collapsing left and right, when pension funds are shutting down, when Ford and GM are in bankruptcy, when insurance companies are doubling rates to cover losses or just flat out dropping people, when Europe is desolving the Euro and going back to individual country currencies, when the big hedge funds are collapsing left and right, when people are looking to borrow money for heat instead of for a new car... That will be when people will be REALLY affraid, and when stock prices will be off another 50+%, maybe 75% off today's pricesNote: Notice I did not say anything about food riots, people starving in the streets, the total breakdown of society, etc. I do not see a need to stockpile food, guns, ammo, water, etc. I do not expect a total breakdown of society. I expect the stuff I listed above. Lots of bankruptcies, lots of people that think their savings are safe will be wiped out, people that think they'll be getting a pension will find out they are not. I expect a significant decline in the standard of living. I do expect an increase in crime, but there will always be law and order and an intact society. There will be food on the shelves at the grocery store. We'll gain some ground on the war against obeasity though.

PM your address so I can send a dollar when the Dow drops below 4,500. If you are right you will have earned it.

[dapokerbum 0]

I read this article first thing this morning, and he makes a good case, IF you accept the basic premise that this is a Wall Street problem that is spilling over to Main Street. WRONG!! This is a Main Street problem that is spilling over to Wall Street. His basic argument is that the time to buy is when everything looks the bleakest. My counter is that we are a LONG way from everything looking bleakest. Right now it looks bleak for Wall Street, but Main Street continues to hold out hope of some magical government rescue that will aloow them to go back to spending 110% of their income, forever, while just rolling over the debt.I still hear people talking about house prices recovering. I still hear them talk about needing to get debt flowing again so people can buy cars. We're still only at 6.1% unemployment. Next year, when everyone has given up hope of a quick recovery of housing prices, when commercial property is collapsing at a rate that makes residential look like a kiddy-coaster, when unemployment is above 15%, when state and local governments are collapsing left and right, when pension funds are shutting down, when Ford and GM are in bankruptcy, when insurance companies are doubling rates to cover losses or just flat out dropping people, when Europe is desolving the Euro and going back to individual country currencies, when the big hedge funds are collapsing left and right, when people are looking to borrow money for heat instead of for a new car... That will be when people will be REALLY affraid, and when stock prices will be off another 50+%, maybe 75% off today's pricesNote: Notice I did not say anything about food riots, people starving in the streets, the total breakdown of society, etc. I do not see a need to stockpile food, guns, ammo, water, etc. I do not expect a total breakdown of society. I expect the stuff I listed above. Lots of bankruptcies, lots of people that think their savings are safe will be wiped out, people that think they'll be getting a pension will find out they are not. I expect a significant decline in the standard of living. I do expect an increase in crime, but there will always be law and order and an intact society. There will be food on the shelves at the grocery store. We'll gain some ground on the war against obeasity though.

So what is your net worth? Hmmm I think I might be more apt to believe a guy that has made billions of dollars investing than a guy that is preaching that all the financial institutions will fail ... but somehow there will be peace and order and food on the shelves.

[aucu 3]

I read this article first thing this morning, and he makes a good case, IF you accept the basic premise that this is a Wall Street problem that is spilling over to Main Street. WRONG!! This is a Main Street problem that is spilling over to Wall Street. His basic argument is that the time to buy is when everything looks the bleakest. My counter is that we are a LONG way from everything looking bleakest. Right now it looks bleak for Wall Street, but Main Street continues to hold out hope of some magical government rescue that will aloow them to go back to spending 110% of their income, forever, while just rolling over the debt.I still hear people talking about house prices recovering. I still hear them talk about needing to get debt flowing again so people can buy cars. We're still only at 6.1% unemployment. Next year, when everyone has given up hope of a quick recovery of housing prices, when commercial property is collapsing at a rate that makes residential look like a kiddy-coaster, when unemployment is above 15%, when state and local governments are collapsing left and right, when pension funds are shutting down, when Ford and GM are in bankruptcy, when insurance companies are doubling rates to cover losses or just flat out dropping people, when Europe is desolving the Euro and going back to individual country currencies, when the big hedge funds are collapsing left and right, when people are looking to borrow money for heat instead of for a new car... That will be when people will be REALLY affraid, and when stock prices will be off another 50+%, maybe 75% off today's pricesNote: Notice I did not say anything about food riots, people starving in the streets, the total breakdown of society, etc. I do not see a need to stockpile food, guns, ammo, water, etc. I do not expect a total breakdown of society. I expect the stuff I listed above. Lots of bankruptcies, lots of people that think their savings are safe will be wiped out, people that think they'll be getting a pension will find out they are not. I expect a significant decline in the standard of living. I do expect an increase in crime, but there will always be law and order and an intact society. There will be food on the shelves at the grocery store. We'll gain some ground on the war against obeasity though.

Good point, I don't think this is the bottom at all, what is different this time is way more people own stock now and a lot are holding on to ride it out but when they lose thier jobs they will have to sell everything.Not until unemployment goes up 15% I don't think it will go that high but there has got to be more real hurt.They say buying a stock that is droping is like trying to catch a falling knife. watch out.