NonZeroPossibility 0 Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 lol, that was joe the pro: Sorry in advance if you guys already touched on this, I don't really feel like going through 98 pages on this thread... but I was wondering if there's like an exact figure on the ratio of gold reserves:cash in the world.I've tried googling and found that there is about 155,000 tons of gold, but couldn't find anything on cash. I just have a feeling that Obama is going to be the next president and will make all the problems we're facing even worse and we're going to see a real depression with major inflation. I found this website where this guy James Turk is claiming gold will go to $8,000 an ounce, but I don't know enough about him or the government capping gold prices to tell if he's crazy or not. It sounds like he knows what he's talking about though. What do you guys think?http://goldprice.org/james-turk/index.htmledit: o i see full tilt does have a hitler one too. joe the pro's is better. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 There is not much better than when your shorts go down and your longs go up. (thats what she said?)I remained short Goldman which is paying off today, added on a JEC short this morning. I have also taken a decent amount of recent profits off the table. At this point I think i'd be happy to see a few hundred points shaved back off the dow. I have a buy list ready but will wait for lower prices. I don't see the election being a positive catalyst so I will probably keep my positions mostly in tact through Wednesday.I am still about 60% long/25% short/rest cash- but at least I have some proper hedges on now, if we dive bomb I won't get crushed and I have some dry powder ready. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 28 Stocks on my screen. 27 are green. Goldman Sachs, it is red. That is sexy. Hop aboard the short train, Goldman is going lower this month! JEC I could've messed up big time - I looked at the chart and recent price action and loved it as a short, but I did not look/realize that they had earnings before the bell this morning. They 'met' and it looks like their 09 guidance is at the low end of guesstimates. So it fortunately didn't rip higher on me. I think it'll still move back down with the market over time...I'll keep some hedges on for now because I am up another 5% on this open.. gotta keep taking profits. This up up up can't last forever. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Wow quite a rally, i'd be up 10% without my hedges. Damn hedges! Only up 7% atm. Guess it'll be another profit taking/sell high day!This is starting to feel like my blog, what is everyone else doing? Link to post Share on other sites
dms26 3 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Wow quite a rally, i'd be up 10% without my hedges. Damn hedges! Only up 7% atm. Guess it'll be another profit taking/sell high day!This is starting to feel like my blog, what is everyone else doing? Mostly sitting still, I don't make a lot of short term trades. Bought a little MO, POT and FCX last month on a dip. A lot of my stocks report tomorrow, so I'm hoping for some good news. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Mostly sitting still, I don't make a lot of short term trades. Bought a little MO, POT and FCX last month on a dip. A lot of my stocks report tomorrow, so I'm hoping for some good news.mmmmm Potash. They are lookin nice today. I made a killing in MOS but got out - it looks a little ahead of itself now much like many other things. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 5, 2008 Share Posted November 5, 2008 Update..Pretty solid rallies last few days. I was leveraged up big at Down 8200 (scary, big gambool, but worked) and rode the long wave quite well. Even rode a couple successful short trades during the volatility (Thanks for lagging behind, Goldman; Got short that at 98).I have since taken some profits and de-levered, plus I am gonna leave on my Goldman short over the weekend as a hedge. Sold Mosaic for gain, traded around TGB, currently own some Chesapeake, Pfizer, financial ETF, oil services ETF, RIMM...I would think we have to give back some of the quick gains next week. I have cash ready if we take some big drops, but we often "panic up" as crazy as we panic down...so if that keeps happening, cool with me. I'm just happy to have traded back a lot of my Sept/Oct losses and be de-leveraged again.Heyoooooooooooooooooo! 12% pop.Edit: Full lifespan of Chesapeake holdings only lasted 2 weeks - Bought 60 CHK at $17.80 and 60 CHK at 20.50. Sold 60 at 23 and just sold the other 60 at 25.50. I think CHK is going to continue to do well long term, especially going into Winter, but it is a little ahead of itself (RSI 2 was 92+ today at it's peak) Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 11, 2008 Share Posted November 11, 2008 28 Stocks on my screen. 27 are green. Goldman Sachs, it is red. That is sexy. Hop aboard the short train, Goldman is going lower this month!"Shorting Goldman, it's like printing money" Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 We had this big debate for over a year about whether people would just walk away once they were hopelessly upside down. Many, including LMD would say they would not, while I was of the opinion they would. Here is an example of the counter argument that they would not.... You are assuming millions walk away when they have to pay rent somewhere anyway. People get attached to where they live,it's not as cut and dry as you think. http://www.cnbc.com/id/27680501"The witnesses also told the committee that it is getting harder to modify loans because a) more and more homeowners don't want to stay in their homes because of negative equity and B) more and more homeowners can't even afford the modifications, thanks to job losses and huge consumer debt."As I stated, 3 major factors. 1) Those that could never afford the house. 2) Those that can afford the house, but choose not to.3) Those that become unable to afford the house in the wake of the economy post debt collapse.If you listen to Paulson and Bernanke, they NEVER talk about stabalizing house prices. They ALWAYS talk about the correction running its course. They know there is no way to keep prices from returning to nromal price/income and price/rent ratios. Heck, today Paulson said we're not even past the biggest share.http://www.cnbc.com/id/27678905"Market turmoil will not abate until the biggest part of the housing correction is behind us. Our primary focus must be recovery and repair."Note the lack of comment on stabalization, but instead on recovery and repair.And, look at the goals:"we acted earlier this year to prevent the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing GSEs that now touch over 70 percent of mortgage originations. I clearly stated at that time three critical objectives: providing stability to financial markets, supporting the availability of mortgage finance, and protecting taxpayers"Keep the market from locking up as prices fall.No talk of stabalizing prices. No talk of rebound. This is the rebound. Back to normal house prices.And without the access to cheap debt borrowed against rising house prices, people turned to credit cards. Now that is being maxed out and cut back, so they have to cut back on consumer spending.And yet, everyday I see news stories talking about how no one saw this coming. Ummmmm... I DID!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Sal Paradise 57 Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 And yet, everyday I see news stories talking about how no one saw this coming. Ummmmm... I DID!!!!no you didn't. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 Intel choked up the futures big time after hours...hoping tomorrow morning we have another bloody painful "whoosh" of a capitulation open and can then rebound. Then I can cover up all my shorts and push some longs. But if it's just another slow bleeding down a little bit at a time day i'm not going anywhere with my shorts. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Oooh the market just stopped going down as it got to the old closing bottoms. Now I don't know what i'm gonna do. A double bottom would be nice, but that is more wishful thinking than prediction. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Shorting Goldman, so easy a caveman could do it. Note: I am not saying it's safe to put on giant shorts at these levels, but considering I started shorting in the 90's, mmmm mm bitch.It's interesting, the market feels like it wants to go down big, but it isn't. I still don't know if we are going to get the big downside breakthrough or a dead cat bounce. Probably will know in the next few hours. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 There is your answer, look out belowwwwwwwwwwwww Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Lows breached, heavy/fast selloff, quick reversal. Impressive. I covered SOME shorts at lows, ended up covering the rest on the way up. Could be a big short covering rally since the lows didn't hold. At these low levels I feel safer being long...for now. Ofc this could all end as soon as Bush opens his mouth... Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Lows breached, heavy/fast selloff, quick reversal. Impressive. I covered SOME shorts at lows, ended up covering the rest on the way up. Could be a big short covering rally since the lows didn't hold. At these low levels I feel safer being long...for now. Ofc this could all end as soon as Bush Paulson, Greenspan, Bernake, Frank, Harry Reid opens their mouths...FYP Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 FYPAgree on all of those, it's just that Bush had the speech coming up right now Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Agree on all of those, it's just that Bush had the speech coming up right now I just read the highlights, sounded good. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Let me see if I understand the gist of Paulson's speach yesterday....We were going to overpay for MBS as a way of liquifying the market, but that would have taken too long, so we decided to just hand the banks cash instead. However, even with all that cash, they still aren't making loans to people that can't pay them back. Since they can't securitize the debt and sell it off, they will only loan money to people that can probably pay them back. BUT, since our economy is based on people being able to borrow money they can never pay back, the economy is crumbling. In a desperate attempt to keep the economy alive, I'm going to use hundreds of billions of dollars to buy up new securities that are packed with toxic loans to people that can't pay them back. That way, the people that can't pay back the loans can still get the loans and keep the economy from crashing.Does that about sum it up?Or, did I miss something? Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 I just read the highlights, sounded good.Just a little posturing for his G20 meeting. You know Bush isn't going to tell us anything we don't already know. Kind of like Wrongway. As soon as he popped up on the screen everything dropped and went back negative. But by the end we were right about where it started. Just another wild & crazy day on wall street. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Never been so happy to have 'panicked' out of my shorts so soon into a reversal :-D That $5000 goldman short and $4000 FXP woulda eaten up all of this upside. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 Let me see if I understand the gist of Paulson's speach yesterday....We were going to overpay for MBS as a way of liquifying the market, but that would have taken too long, so we decided to just hand the banks cash instead. However, even with all that cash, they still aren't making loans to people that can't pay them back. Since they can't securitize the debt and sell it off, they will only loan money to people that can probably pay them back. BUT, since our economy is based on people being able to borrow money they can never pay back, the economy is crumbling. In a desperate attempt to keep the economy alive, I'm going to use hundreds of billions of dollars to buy up new securities that are packed with toxic loans to people that can't pay them back. That way, the people that can't pay back the loans can still get the loans and keep the economy from crashing.Does that about sum it up?Or, did I miss something?I think you forgot to mention the magnifying effect of delaying this "correction." Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 I'm sooooo glad I'm not playing this psycho market. Up 100 on bad jobs news, down 300 on known news that hedge funds are looking at 25%+ redemption requests, then up 700 on news that credit card and other loans are defaulting at a rate higher than expected.Insanity.Up 2%, down 4%, up 5%, all in a few hours. May as well be playing Roulette. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 I think you forgot to mention the magnifying effect of delaying this "correction."Good point. The more debt we add, the more that will have to be wiped off in default.Automakersd already got $25 billion in loan guarantees, now want another $25 billion in cash handout, and the unions are already asking for another $25 billion to give them the assets they need to cover healthcare costs to already retireed workers....Just the beginning of the costs of an automaker bailout.Consumers need a way they can continue to spend 110% of their incomes, forever, without ever having to pay for or on any of the debt. U.S. automakers need to get out from under $100 billion in excess debt, then figure out how to be competative with a $45 an hour total cost of compensation when the Japaneese pay $25 an hour total cost of compensation. Unions are great for the workers short-term, but long-term the business need to either be a monopoly (railroads), government, or... a non-unionized business will come along and slaughter you. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Over 60% of stocks in the S&P 500 have P/E of less than 10. A level not seen since the early 80's. Link to post Share on other sites
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