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fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggjust wow. So much panic.For all this selling, I gotta ask....Who is buying everything they are selling?
me. Thank goodness my silver went way up today. That helped offset everything else. I'm also glad that silver and gold stocks are my #1 and #2 holding currently.
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me. Thank goodness my silver went way up today. That helped offset everything else. I'm also glad that silver and gold stocks are my #1 and #2 holding currently.
grats. Seriously though, through out all these massive sell offs of ALL stocks and sectors, who the hell is on the other end buying?They have to be selling to someone?
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grats. Seriously though, through out all these massive sell offs of ALL stocks and sectors, who the hell is on the other end buying?They have to be selling to someone?
The sad thing is nothing is safe right now. Bonds are down 10-20% the last month. Stable value and balanced funds which are at least 50/50 or more bonds, are down 25%. Cash and Treasuries (and for the last week or so Silver and Gold) but not the ETF's. Its pretty nutso. Bernake's speech IMO was pretty straightforward, but it brought the DOW and S&P to its knees.
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Is today another one of those big up days that I have to be sure I don't miss?With Alcoa only hitting 66% of analysts estimate, tomorrow should be a good day for comodities. How did BAC's $10 billion capital raise go? I must have missed it this morning. ;)The Treasury will be buying up $ hundreds of billions worth of bad MSB, but that is not enough to convince banks to make more loans that will go bad.The Fed will be buying up $ hundreds of billiion worth of bad commercial paper, that that is not enough to convince banks to make more loans that will go bad.The Fed has been handing out $100 billion loans to banks like it was water, and still it does not convince them to make more loans that will go bad.What on earth can the government do to convince banks to make loans that will go bad?Come on people... Our economy can't function unless people are willing to lend out trillions of dollars that can't be paid back.Maybe Bush should make a speech saying that it is unpatriotic to not make loans that can't be paid back. If we don't make loans that can't be paid back, then the terrorists win.Or maybe, just maybe, they should stop attacking this as a Wall Street problem, and start attacking it as the Main Street problem that it is!

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What makes you think that the commercial paper is bad? Its just frozen, it's not bad.And btw, if you had not been such a condescending ass, maybe people would take what you had to say a little more seriously.

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The sad thing is nothing is safe right now.
Wow... that is so weird. Becuase my 401(k) is still up on the week, month, quarter, year... Strange.And all I have done is do the opposite of what every broker says to do. I'm not diversified at all, being 100% in treasuries. I'm not buying and holding. I'm not dollar coast averageing. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.Or in the words of our great leader: Fool me once shame on me, fool me again.. err, ummm, aaaaa, ya ain't gonna fool me again...
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Wow... that is so weird. Becuase my 401(k) is still up on the week, month, quarter, year... Strange.And all I have done is do the opposite of what every broker says to do. I'm not diversified at all, being 100% in treasuries. I'm not buying and holding. I'm not dollar coast averageing. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.Or in the words of our great leader: Fool me once shame on me, fool me again.. err, ummm, aaaaa, ya ain't gonna fool me again...
There is still volatility in Treasuries. Albeit much less, I expect that American Funds treasury fund you have to get hit hard in the next 3 months. (As hard as a treasury fund can get hit)
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What makes you think that the commercial paper is bad? Its just frozen, it's not bad.
It is frozen, because no one wants to buy it. And, no one wants to buy it, because they know much of it wont' be repaid. Won't be repaid = bad.
And btw, if you had not been such a condescending ass, maybe people would take what you had to say a little more seriously.
Really? Seriously? I suggest you go back to my first few posts. I was not a condescending ass. I was just telling people a truth they did not want to hear. As a result, I was called a wide variety of rude names and constantly attacked.First the truth is mocked.Then the truth is violently attakced.Then the truth is questioned.Then the truth becomes undeniable.Had I not been mocked nor violently attacked quite so rudely, perhaps I would not be quite so rude in how I say... SEE, TOLD YOU SO!Just wondering, but is buy and hold still a better strategy than buying low and selling high?
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There is still volatility in Treasuries. Albeit much less, I expect that American Funds treasury fund you have to get hit hard in the next 3 months. (As hard as a treasury fund can get hit)
Actually, I don't disagree. I could see an easy 1-2% hit over the next few months as the Treasury begins HUGE auctions of notes... Supply and demand, and all that other crud that people seem to not to want to admit is behind all real economics...That said, there is no where I think will get hit less hard.
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I don't think that commercial paper is bad at all, I think that there is not liquidity for the float right now. Commercial paper is one of the safest investment available.Over the last 4-6 weeks, buy on hold is out the window. I agree, there is nothing not getting hit. Bond funds are crushed right now.Just know this though, unless we had all of our clients in virtually the same portfolio (which does not make sense) there is no possible way to time the market when you have 2-300 clients. So you still have to stay diversified and ride out the storm, overweight and underweight certain areas (like we have International under weighted for the last 12 months and LG Cap Growth and inflation protected bonds over weighted.and Come on, you know you were an ass. Not to me, but in general.

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The sad thing is nothing is safe right now. Bonds are down 10-20% the last month. Stable value and balanced funds which are at least 50/50 or more bonds, are down 25%. Cash and Treasuries (and for the last week or so Silver and Gold) but not the ETF's. Its pretty nutso. Bernake's speech IMO was pretty straightforward, but it brought the DOW and S&P to its knees.
Bernake speeches are an auto divebomb to the market....every time.
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Thanks nutz.....I'll definitely look into it.Anyone else is appreciated.
I sent my sister in law (a pretty well known financial person, now semi retired...she actually used to manage Janet Leigh and Jamie Leigh Curtis' accounts, lol)the same list and breakdown of funds I showed you, just to see her take.here is her response, fwiw...
Hi Scott, The only thing you should do right now is hang tight. You are all in mutual funds, which gives you tons of diversification. If you bail now, you will have real losses; hang on until the market comes back. Nobody knows when the market will turn around, so if you stay put, you will benefit from the market rebound by already being invested. Several of the funds you have are ones that I have my clients in as well: PIMCO Total Return, Keeley Small Cap Value, Davis NY Venture, Artisan Mid-Cap. You may find that the Fidelity Contrafund does the best in this type of market; contrarian funds usually do. Don’t spend a lot of time looking at your portfolio when the market sucks like it does now, it will only make you feel more woeful. Try not to watch the doomsday prophets on TV; they are not giving you any news, they only want you to feel as bad as they do. The market has shit itself many times before and this won’t be the last time it does.
meh....help any?
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I sent my sister in law (a pretty well known financial person, now semi retired...she actually used to manage Janet Leigh and Jamie Leigh Curtis' accounts, lol)the same list and breakdown of funds I showed you, just to see her take.here is her response, fwiw...meh....help any?
Thanks Scott.....it does help and is very appreciated.
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Now hear this....This is NOT a Wall Street prolem, and it can't be fixed with a Wall Street bailout.$700 billion will be used to buy up bad MBS. BFD: There are trillion in losses coming.Large amounts of money will be used to buy up commercial paper. And businesses will be desperate to issue more even faster than it is bought up.This morning on CNBC they were talking about 5% 30-year fixed refi to EVERYONE in the country. WON'T WORK!!!!!! Prices are too high for incomes, meaning prices will keep falling, foreclosures will continue, people will walk away from houses that are hopelessly 30+% upside down in.And even if we could fix residential, which we can't... Commercial is every bit as overpriced and overbuilt and about to crash hard too. AND, even if we could fix both of those, the economy we had was built on people spending 110% of their income. JUST making prices go flat is NOT going to let us add $1 trillion a year to the economy from mortgage equity withdrawl needed to keep consumers spending the way they were.Over the last 15 years:20% increase in median income50% increase in CPI180% increase in per household debt266% increase in non-financial sector business debtHOW do we let people continue to spend 110% of their incomes, forever, without actually ever having to pay back the debt or even pay interest on it?????We HAVE to start looking at this as a Main Street problem, NOT a Wall Street problem!

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grats. Seriously though, through out all these massive sell offs of ALL stocks and sectors, who the hell is on the other end buying?They have to be selling to someone?
I guess people who believe the market will correct itself eventually and can wait it out a few years if need be.
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isn't that a cut and paste from yesterday?either way, wrongway, do you have the breakdown of the debt for the trillions you are talking about getting ready to go bad? like what percentage is consumer vs commercial, and what percentages are variable vs fixed?

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Come on, you know you were an ass. Not to me, but in general.
Only to those that were an ass to me first.I presented a cogent argument as to why we were heading for bad times. The response was ad hominum attacks.Yeah, after being treated like that, I'm going to be a bit of an ass. Maybe I'd lighten up if I got just a few, "okay, you were right".Look, I am one of the smartest guys in the room. My problem is that I'm also one of the most moral. I won't lie, cheat or steal to get ahead in life. I won't screw over others for personal gain. The most important thing to me, is honesty and truth. I'm a humanist and an atheist, and believe it is our duty to treat others with honesty and respect as we would expect, until through their actions, people have proven themselves deserving of other treatment. I would NEVER give someone bad advice just because there was personal gain in it for me.Probably why I'm just a lowly $80K a year computer programmer instead of an all powerful master of the universe.Probably why I'm a really suck poker player too. I'm not cut throat enough for the game, which is why I stick to very low stakes where the fun of the game compensates for the low profit margin.
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You HAVE to be kidding me, RIGHT? I can't beleive this isn't an Onion artcle...http://www.cnbc.com/id/27088897"McCain announced a plan last night for the Treasury to directly purchase home loans from borrowers and servicers at full price and then give the borrowers cheaper fixed-rate FHA backed loans at lower principal values;"This is absolutely INSANE!!!!! And this is the Republican plan? Aren't there supposed to be negative consequences of being stupid? The less you put down on your house, the more debt you are forgiven? So people that put money down, bought a house at a good price, that they could afford get the bill, while those that did the most stupid things of buying a house they could not afford, when it was crazy overpriced, with little or no down, get the rewards???? INSANITY!!!!!Reward stupidity and punish people that did the right thing....

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You HAVE to be kidding me, RIGHT? I can't beleive this isn't an Onion artcle...http://www.cnbc.com/id/27088897"McCain announced a plan last night for the Treasury to directly purchase home loans from borrowers and servicers at full price and then give the borrowers cheaper fixed-rate FHA backed loans at lower principal values;"This is absolutely INSANE!!!!! And this is the Republican plan? Aren't there supposed to be negative consequences of being stupid? The less you put down on your house, the more debt you are forgiven? So people that put money down, bought a house at a good price, that they could afford get the bill, while those that did the most stupid things of buying a house they could not afford, when it was crazy overpriced, with little or no down, get the rewards???? INSANITY!!!!!Reward stupidity and punish people that did the right thing....
One of the many reasons I dislike McCain.But he scares me less than the other less experienced dude.This election sucks.
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One of the many reasons I dislike McCain.But he scares me less than the other less experienced dude.This election sucks.
The other day a guy at work (that is upside down on 2 houses) asks me which of these 2 would be better for the economy. I say, "The die is cast", then turn and walk away.
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Well that was an interesting couple days. Have we seen the bottom?We had the most volatile day in the history of the stock market on Friday, with a 1019 point gain from the bottom. After hours most of the DJIA was up 1-5%. Monday will be interesting.

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