El Guapo 8 Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 a trader guy from jp morgan told my class yesterday that $2.7T is sitting in accounts earning .3% or less.I puked my shorts and went long some time ago. I was wrong on pretty much everything.It's over 4 trillion in short term cash funds, such as money market a bank depositsalso, Mutual Fund inflows have mostly gone to bonds, at the rate of 5 to 1.Still a lot of money to go into equities over the next few years. It does not mean we won't see a short term pull back though. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 Big crash coming tomorrow....http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CN...;show_article=1 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 Yes.Unless we see some serious volume today, I would be selling everything I have by 11am today. There is so much pointing towards a prolonged downtown in the market, in my comprehensively uneducated opinion. I'd bet the market sees highs today that it doesn't bet back to for a year. This "bad news isn't as bad as we were worried about" is a pretty laughable reason for a market spike.And by "bet" I mean "argue in favour of in a forum thread" since I am in a significant debt position. My investment portfolio is 100% invested in a single equity...my employer...as part of our bonus structure.p.s. be gentle mocking this post. please. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 I'd bet the market sees highs today that it doesn't get back to for a year.booked. Link to post Share on other sites
leftygolfer 7 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 And by "bet" I mean "argue in favour of in a forum thread" since I am in a significant debt position. My investment portfolio is 100% invested in a single equity...my employer...as part of our bonus structure.p.s. be gentle mocking this post. please.MDG - do you work for a start-up? Unusual to have a bonus structure 100% in employer stock. Can you buy puts to hedge?Sad hedge story. One of my best friends lost about $8-10 million last year. The bank he worked at for 15 years was bought in early 2008. It was a 100% stock deal. The acquiring bank stock tanked from 33-3. He either couldn't or didn't hedge his postion and couldn't sell fast enough as he was a senior exec that couldn't dump the stock. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 MDG - do you work for a start-up? Unusual to have a bonus structure 100% in employer stock. Can you buy puts to hedge?Sad hedge story. One of my best friends lost about $8-10 million last year. The bank he worked at for 15 years was bought in early 2008. It was a 100% stock deal. The acquiring bank stock tanked from 33-3. He either couldn't or didn't hedge his postion and couldn't sell fast enough as he was a senior exec that couldn't dump the stock.Ha ha, no I don't have a cool job like that. I work for a major bank. Our actual bonus is cash. There is also a stock purchase plan, for which the bank matches 50% of our investment in our own stock. I could hedge with puts, but for the amounts that I have it is not worthwhile. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 booked.Nice.Definitely the start of a downswing though. A year is a stretch, but I'd GUESS we don't see 11,000 before June next year. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 Smellin a little toppy! Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 A year is a stretch, but I'd GUESS we don't see 11,000 before June next year.I would take that bet also. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 I would take that bet also.Should we get LongLiveYorke in here to use put prices to determine fair odds? Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 remember what we said about sidelined cash? where else is it going with interest rates this low?sensible or not, equities are heading up.I don't buy this. What about the 10% of unemployed Americans? Mightn't they be pulling cash out of equities?OK, that's dumb since we both know the savings of ordinary people mean nothing compared to corporate deposits. And like your friend pointed out - if they have $3T in deposits at 0.3%, I don't think they're going to start throwing it at the market if it drops to 0.2%. As their businesses continue to perform poorly, they're going to throw the cash at their losses. That cash has been sidelined, and it will stay that way as long as the economy is crappy, and companies are worried about their business, or the business of their partners.Speaking of, how did the US end up in a net loss position for jobs, but unemployment decreased? Is it just due to people dropping out of the labour force, or am I missing something? Link to post Share on other sites
theresa113 0 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Do any of you use investools? I am taking the online courses and plan on attending a 2 day work shop in January. I have dabbled in the market the past few years, made a few smart moves, made many stupid moves. Now, I want to take things seriously. So who on this thread actually trades stocks for a living? Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Do any of you use investools? I am taking the online courses and plan on attending a 2 day work shop in January. I have dabbled in the market the past few years, made a few smart moves, made many stupid moves. Now, I want to take things seriously. So who on this thread actually trades stocks for a living?I don't think anyone does. Mk trades bonds. Yoda does something financial, but I don't think it's: trading stocks. Link to post Share on other sites
owise1 0 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Do any of you use investools? I am taking the online courses and plan on attending a 2 day work shop in January. I have dabbled in the market the past few years, made a few smart moves, made many stupid moves. Now, I want to take things seriously. So who on this thread actually trades stocks for a living?I did a few years back, but was not that successful. I was a day trader and could recommend some good books & blogs if you like. PM me for more info. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 I don't think anyone does. Mk trades bonds. Yoda does something financial, but I don't think it's: trading stocks.Nope I don't even do anything financial. I am in IT and IT Services I very much consider myself an amateur. A well read amateur, but an amateur nonetheless. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 remember what we said about sidelined cash? where else is it going with interest rates this low?sensible or not, equities are heading up.It's been going into bonds...sick amounts of inflows while equity mutual funds in general haven't seen a lot of new money. That's where I still keep a great deal of my money. HYG specifically. I am aware the ride may be over soon, but so far it has held up INCREDIBLY well. Not only yielding in the 10% range (higher earlier in the year) but rising in price as well.It's been slowly rising for 9 months while paying out a sweet monthly dividend. I feel much safer here than in stocks considering how far we have come. Link to post Share on other sites
leftygolfer 7 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 remember what we said about sidelined cash? where else is it going with interest rates this low?sensible or not, equities are heading up.Strat - I would be careful if you use the idea that the tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines means that equities are heading up.The reason the money is on the sidelines is that it intended for liquidity purposes and not for investment purposes. Many bank money market a/c's are paying higher than bank CD's and T-bills. Big and small business are just parking their excess money.Many small businesses are Sub-S corp's for tax purposes and generally distribute the cash( income) earned at the end of the year (a majority Sub-S have a calendar FYE). Thus, I will payout much of our earnigs this year to shareholders who in turn will pay personal taxes, pay down debt, and put in savings or invest. A very small part of the money we have in our corporate money market account will ever see its way into the market.One could argue that there is a tremendous amount of money market cash sitting in IRA/401K accounts waiting to be invested. These are generally unsophisticaed investors who can't choose what to invest in or "smart" people trying to time the market and generally are wrong.Let's see where cash is at 5-1-10 compared to 5-1-09 and see how much is still on the sidelines. My gut tells me it will be less as companies have had to use their liquidity to fund operationg losses.My $.02. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Regarding stocks, I can't help but think that at best things will be stagnant through most of next year. folks already invested may just stay put for now out of hope, yet scared/unsure with the potential political shift looming on Capitol Hill next Nov. It just doesn't seem that there will be a ton of new money moving into the markets any time soon. I am considering going to fixed accounts and stay sidelined just to play it safe for a while and lock in gains until the uncertainty clears a bit (3rd Q of next year?). plus with my situation being to leave the current job July 5th I do not want to risk anything with just a few months to go.Overall I do not think there is much more upside to this market at the moment. (?) Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 yeah, you're right, the head of latin american trading operations at jp morgan is probably wrongWhy was the head of Latin America trading operations discussing the American equity market? Link to post Share on other sites
leftygolfer 7 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Why was the head of Latin America trading operations discussing the American equity market?Lecturing in Finance for Dummies - 101 Link to post Share on other sites
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