stock market thread

[Actuary 3]

It's a lot easier to short stocks if you don't want to confuse yourself with options, just make sure to put in a stop limit order so you don't get too burned. I've decided I haven't learned enough about options to use them effectively. Sure I know how they work and can do the math and know what's going on. But there is too much more 'underneath the hood' that points to me probably playing things wrong with options.

Um, yeah, eh.. ewww... I'm the WORLDS WORST INVESTOR TRADER.Options appeal to me for the limited loss, and potential leveraged gains.BUT I HAVE NO HEART.Take the SKF above:Here's my history:8/20: Bought 35 sh @ $129.69, it seemed to be working back to its 50 dma, with good support from the 200 dma, making 3 higher highs recently, etc8/22: Bought 1 Put, SEP 115 @ 6.30, Stock ~ $127, After moving to $132 on the 8/21, it went back opend at 126.7 peaked at 129.9 and closed at 124.9 on 8/22..........Soon after purchasing it, I realized how much it would have to fall and read more about not buying OTM options so expiring soon, due to Time Value deterioration8/26: Sold the 1 Put SEP 115 @ 4.20, Stock ~ $132 on 8/25 - 8/26 the stock had gone up 5%, What I ignored was how it was no longer making higher highs; and the GSE were getting rumored up8/27: Sold 18 sh @ $126.69, I simply wanted to reduce my exposure, esp now that the Option was sold8/28: Bought 25 sh @ 120.56, it had come down almost 7 pts today, and I interpreted the chart to show support - but that's probably dumb to do with an index, 2x inverse one at that. Truth be told, I was trying to pick a bottom in a volitile, low volume, no sense sector, purely guessing8/28: Bought 1 Put OCT 90 @ 2.40. Yeah, I know I suck at buying Options. So I don't want to invest much $$$ and take deep OTM offerings. So anyway, I bought this as a false sense of protection.... 8/28: Sold 42 sh @ 118.57. And that's all my shares. Closer look at the chart, and I got chicken.Still own the OCT 90 Put.Ok, now the total lost was nothing, really. But WTF was I doing buying the SKF if I panic so easily?Currently the SEP 115 put is selling for $7.90, a $370 gain I lost out on. - PS, I know this is a small $$$ amount, I'm trying to make the point that even small amounts get me fustered to bad knee jerk movesNow SKF is under $117. So at least I saved a few bucks.I used to post on FCP all day at the ole job.Now, FCP is blocked, and I'm staring at my Portfolio all day.This is a RETIREMENT portfolio and over that lasty few months fees and bad trades are eating it up. Another example, tried a wide Strangle play on the UNG (after buying and selling my local Gas Utility + Exploration company twice in mid-late Aug, I decided instead to try an options play on the broader index. BTW, EGN was upgraded today and well of course it outperformed UNG this week.So on 8/26 I bought 2 Puts and Call at 36 and 41 respectively, with expiration in JAN. In JAN, ok, and on 8/27 I sold both PUTS for a small loss. Of course it's up now with this funky fall in Natty, with storms on the way. I kept a PUT for one day. I do still have the 2 CALL contracts. I keep hearing inventories are so strong now though, and so we're not seeing much impact from the storm. almost forgot, I sold the XLF right before buying the SKF. My timing blowsHopefully the therapy of writing all this out will help.

[Yoda 1]

Another example, tried a wide Strangle play on the UNG (after buying and selling my local Gas Utility + Exploration company twice in mid-late Aug, I decided instead to try an options play on the broader index. BTW, EGN was upgraded today and well of course it outperformed UNG this week.

Seems like this is the perfect time to do a straddle on UNG @ $37. Calls and Puts are prices at ~2.40 and I think whether this hurricane hits or misses Natty is gonna make a 10% move or more in one direction or another.I just did this...lets see what happens!Filled Buy to Open +UNEIK Market 2.43 Filled Buy to Open +UNEUK Market 2.41

[dms26 3]

I've been watching it, so far the forecasts have it staying as a cat 3 all the way through the gulf. I can't really figure out how that is possible but I hope they are right.

I should have been a meteorologist except I probably didn't even spell it right. Now predicted to hit cat 5 in the gulf but lower to cat 4 when it hits land. It's already a 4 right now and hasn't gotten to Cuba yet.

[Yoda 1]

I should have been a meteorologist except I probably didn't even spell it right. Now predicted to hit cat 5 in the gulf but lower to cat 4 when it hits land. It's already a 4 right now and hasn't gotten to Cuba yet.

Here's to UNG hitting 40 on Tuesday morning and me selling for sicko profit!

[Yoda 1]

Seems like this is the perfect time to do a straddle on UNG @ $37. Calls and Puts are prices at ~2.40 and I think whether this hurricane hits or misses Natty is gonna make a 10% move or more in one direction or another.I just did this...lets see what happens!Filled Buy to Open +UNEIK Market 2.43 Filled Buy to Open +UNEUK Market 2.41

Closed out of the puts at 4.30. The calls are trading at .80 right now, so if I closed out the whole straddle it would be a pretty modest gain of 6%. Once again those damn options prove to be priced to perfection. It moved almost as much as I expected it to, but the premiums that were built in were too much to overcome.In this case though - I am holding onto the calls for another 1-4 days. Usually whenever something falls this much it will bounce in the other direction. And we've got all these other tropic storms popping up, so I am hoping I can sell the calls at a higher premium in the short term. Then I might be able to book a 10-15% overall gain. We shall see.

[nutzbuster 7]

Um, yeah, eh.. ewww... I'm the WORLDS WORST INVESTOR TRADER.Options appeal to me for the limited loss, and potential leveraged gains.BUT I HAVE NO HEART.Take the SKF above:Here's my history:8/20: Bought 35 sh @ $129.69, it seemed to be working back to its 50 dma, with good support from the 200 dma, making 3 higher highs recently, etc8/22: Bought 1 Put, SEP 115 @ 6.30, Stock ~ $127, After moving to $132 on the 8/21, it went back opend at 126.7 peaked at 129.9 and closed at 124.9 on 8/22..........Soon after purchasing it, I realized how much it would have to fall and read more about not buying OTM options so expiring soon, due to Time Value deterioration8/26: Sold the 1 Put SEP 115 @ 4.20, Stock ~ $132 on 8/25 - 8/26 the stock had gone up 5%, What I ignored was how it was no longer making higher highs; and the GSE were getting rumored up8/27: Sold 18 sh @ $126.69, I simply wanted to reduce my exposure, esp now that the Option was sold8/28: Bought 25 sh @ 120.56, it had come down almost 7 pts today, and I interpreted the chart to show support - but that's probably dumb to do with an index, 2x inverse one at that. Truth be told, I was trying to pick a bottom in a volitile, low volume, no sense sector, purely guessing8/28: Bought 1 Put OCT 90 @ 2.40. Yeah, I know I suck at buying Options. So I don't want to invest much $$$ and take deep OTM offerings. So anyway, I bought this as a false sense of protection.... 8/28: Sold 42 sh @ 118.57. And that's all my shares. Closer look at the chart, and I got chicken.Still own the OCT 90 Put.Ok, now the total lost was nothing, really. But WTF was I doing buying the SKF if I panic so easily?Currently the SEP 115 put is selling for $7.90, a $370 gain I lost out on. - PS, I know this is a small $$$ amount, I'm trying to make the point that even small amounts get me fustered to bad knee jerk movesNow SKF is under $117. So at least I saved a few bucks.I used to post on FCP all day at the ole job.Now, FCP is blocked, and I'm staring at my Portfolio all day.This is a RETIREMENT portfolio and over that lasty few months fees and bad trades are eating it up. Another example, tried a wide Strangle play on the UNG (after buying and selling my local Gas Utility + Exploration company twice in mid-late Aug, I decided instead to try an options play on the broader index. BTW, EGN was upgraded today and well of course it outperformed UNG this week.So on 8/26 I bought 2 Puts and Call at 36 and 41 respectively, with expiration in JAN. In JAN, ok, and on 8/27 I sold both PUTS for a small loss. Of course it's up now with this funky fall in Natty, with storms on the way. I kept a PUT for one day. I do still have the 2 CALL contracts. I keep hearing inventories are so strong now though, and so we're not seeing much impact from the storm. almost forgot, I sold the XLF right before buying the SKF. My timing blowsHopefully the therapy of writing all this out will help.

Poker tracker indicates that you are playing too many hands.

[El Guapo 8]

My two funny ticker symbols of the day:FUSEXFAGIX

[Actuary 3]

Poker tracker indicates that you are playing too many hands.

Yes indeed.Right now, I like where I stand and shall stand pat more frequently

My two funny ticker symbols of the day:FUSEXFAGIX

own it. Decent fund

[WrongWay 0]

We're attacking this probelm from the wrong end.The problem is too much debt. The solution we're imploying is to let the debt default, then clean up.$40 billion in Bear crap. $150 billion in TAF (or is it $200 billion now? Who can keep it straight?), $50+ billion in home loan bank loans to Countrywide, something like $400 billion in term security swap facility with primary brokers.Now a first installment of $200 billion to Freddie and Fannie.Keep this up, and pretty soon, the govt. will have tossed away some real money.AND, none of this has dealt with the root of the problem. We're slapping band aides on a gun shot would. A big gun shot, to a major organ.We need to attack the root of this problem DIRECTLY. Don't wait for the debt to default to nationalize it. Nationalize it right up front. Re-regulate the financial sector, then $2 trillion in handouts to the citizenry, in proportion to income, sent directly to your debtors if you owe any money. Stimulus x 15. Nationalize $2 trillion in excess household debt BEFORE it goes into default.SOOOOOO much better than cleaning it up after.

[brvheart 1,752]

Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression and he has been on record as saying that to avoid its repeat he would dump cash from helicopters.Also, historically Gold is anywhere from 6:1 to 12:1 compared to Silver. It's currently at 65:1.I bought more silver (SLV) at 11.80 today. (more = 16k)Also, my BAC is doing awesome, is I predicted. This Freddie / Fanny situation is helping BAC a lot. Again, I bought it at 19, today it closed at 34.70. I won't even think about selling until it's close to 60. I think it will be around 80 in 5 years.

[donk4life 34]

Is the Oil boom over? There's really nothing stopping from Oil falling to 60-70 a barrel now, unless Ike changes course or another conflict arises.

[WrongWay 0]

Also, my BAC is doing awesome, is I predicted. This Freddie / Fanny situation is helping BAC a lot. Again, I bought it at 19, today it closed at 34.70. I won't even think about selling until it's close to 60. I think it will be around 80 in 5 years.

Unless we start attacking this excess debt issue from another direction, then BAC will be $0 per share within 2 years, just like all the rest.Americans have far too much debt, and little to no reson to bother paying it off. $ trillions in defaults coming.We're running out of bullets to fire at this monster known as the credit collapse, and so far all we have done is slow it down and make it mad. We've not dealt with the underlying probelm.Consumers are insolvant, corporations are insolvant, the nation is insolvant.Yes, we need to drop money from helicopters, but we need to drop it to lenders in the name of borrowers to actually reduce the debt. We can't just keep cleaning up the mess after the defaults have happened.$2 trillion handout, 100% of your 2007 1040 reported income, upto the national medain income of $50K, then you lose $.05-$.10 for each $ you earn above median. If you have debt, the money goes to your debtors in your name to pay down what you owe. Restore some resemblance of solvancy to the population.Combine with bringing back all the banking regulations we had after the great depression that were intended to ensure we didn't have another, but got in the way of the supply-siders efforts to flood the economy with cheap money so the rich could get richer and the porr and middle class could live on debt instead of income.

[Actuary 3]

WrongWay,are you including Mortgage debt in the debtors who will get paid in my name?Which debtors are paid first ?Say I made 100k in 07 and my Mortg debt is ~ 200k50k + ~45k = 95k gets paid toward the Mortg (or do we pay some Credit Card off)Now I owe ~ 100k on the houseThen, what Tax Plan do we implement to raise the $$$ to pay the interest on the nat debtAren't you suggesting we punish those who are not insolvent, by socializing the debt?

[dms26 3]

Is the Oil boom over? There's really nothing stopping from Oil falling to 60-70 a barrel now, unless Ike changes course or another conflict arises.

OPEC just cut production by 500K. I don't what that will do if anything, but I doubt they will let oil get that low.

[mk 11]

gonna get wacky in here, 10y already up 1.10+, spoos down 40 pts.........

[brvheart 1,752]

OPEC just cut production by 500K. I don't what that will do if anything, but I doubt they will let oil get that low.

They didn't cut production. Indonesia dropped out of OPEC, thereby cutting OPEC oil by 500k. Indonesia will still want to sell their oil. (unless they just announced a cut today or yesterday that I hadn't heard)Also, tomorrow is going to be crazy. BAC just bought Merrill Lynch for $44B. Anytime you guys want to make some money just feel free to join me at BAC. Regardless of what wrongway says, BAC will be alive and making truck loads of money going forward. If the price falls tomorrow because the market is going crazy.... BUY BUY BUY. I'm hoping it drops below $30 by the end of the day so that I can put in a big order.

[dms26 3]

They didn't cut production. Indonesia dropped out of OPEC, thereby cutting OPEC oil by 500k. Indonesia will still want to sell their oil. (unless they just announced a cut today or yesterday that I hadn't heard)Also, tomorrow is going to be crazy. BAC just bought Merrill Lynch for $44B. Anytime you guys want to make some money just feel free to join me at BAC. Regardless of what wrongway says, BAC will be alive and making truck loads of money going forward. If the price falls tomorrow because the market is going crazy.... BUY BUY BUY. I'm hoping it drops below $30 by the end of the day so that I can put in a big order.

This is what I had readNot that I'm an expert but it seems like they paid too much for Merrill.

[brvheart 1,752]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/15/business/15lehman.phpA good article on the situation. It looks like BAC is smelling like a rose. They paid 44 for a company that was worth over 100 within the last 12 months.

[WrongWay 0]

Is today one of those big up days that I'm not supposed to miss?Oh how I wish I woned stock right now.....How would we pay down the debt? Proportionte to your total debt. So, for me, with $180K in mortgage debt, $60K in student loans, and $30K in credit card, auto, signature, etc. Okay. My wife and I had $140K 1040 reported income last year. The formula is, we pay out = to income, upto national medain household income of $50K. Then lose 5-10% for maoney above that. So, we have $90K above median, and go with 10% redction, that is $9K off the $50K. So, my wife and I would get only $41K. Or, if they had to go $.20 off per $ above medain to hit the $2 trillion, then we'd only get $38K. Whatever the number has to be to hit the target nationalization rate.As for how it is handed out.$180K/$270K = 66.66% of debt x $41K = $27.33 K handed to my mortgage company.$60K/$270K = 22.22% x$41k = $9.11K handed to my wife's student loans.$30K/$270K = 11.11% x$41K = $4.55K divided up among my other debts, proportionatly.Doesn't this harm the solvant? Solvant what? Assumes there are some solvant.People? If you don't have debt, you get handed a check. Busineses? What solvant businesses?Remember, we're only half-way done with the residently real estate correction, and the commercial is just getting started. This is going global as we speak. How to pay for it?50% cut to the U.S. Navy budget. 50% cut to homeland defense. Roll back Bush spending increases in education (administering the stupid no-child-left-behind testing). Roll back agriculture subsidies to the tune of tens of billions. Tort reform on liability claims (2/3rds of jury 2/3rds convinced instead of 51% of jury 51% convinced) to slice 20% off the cost of healthcare and trim hundreds of billions out of the Medicare/Medicaide, VA and state health programs. Also slices a HUGE chunk from business's expenses.Lift the cap on Social Secuirty contributions while lowering the cap on payments. Eventually just roll Social Security tax into income tax and get rid of the myth that it is a pay-on-get-back system. It hasn't been that since 1939.Raise the capital gains tax back to match income tax rates.Look, we're going to spend the money one way or the other. Either we spend the money to clean up after the bankruptcies. Or we spend themoneyup-front in hopes of avoding the bankruptcies.The problem is, too much debt. Do we treat the symptom of insolvancy, or do we attack the problem of too much debt, head on?Check the assets of BAC. What % of their assets are derivitives? And if their counter-parties are insolvant and those derivitices go to $0? How solvant is BAC?

[gobears 0]

Jason Goepfert on minyanville mentions that breadth has only been this bad in a handful of days in the past 45 years.10/9/79: Several more weeks of stocks getting hit before a low was put in10/16/87: Day before Black Monday10/19/87: Black Monday10/26/87: Decent buying opportunity one week after Black Monday3/8/96: Nice Buying Opportunity10/27/97: Excellent Buying Opportunity

[nutzbuster 7]

Market lost it's mind today. Standard.imo, if you got $$ you got some serious opportunity amongst all this debris.looking......

[donk4life 34]

I'll admit I'm the foremost expert on the economy, as a matter of fact I typically don't understand most of the jargon that is said in this forum and on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. But what is scary about all of this is that not one person I have talked to today has a clue of what is going on. I've talked to people anywhere from 15-70 years old today, and not one, except my family, knows about what is going on. TBH I'm not even sure people around my area know what Merril Lynch/Lehman Brothers/Aig are and what they do. I was mentioning to people about the Dow/Nasdaq/S&P and all I got was a blank stare from everyone. But at the same time, if I wanted a score from the games yesterday and I'd have 10 different answers shouted at me.Our priorities are in the wrong area, sadly it's too late for most to realize it.

[WrongWay 0]

You guys are nuts..... Or liars trying to lure suckers into a trap.This is not 79 or 87 or 97 or 98.This is 1929. People borrowed money to invest, that they could not possibly repay without the investment working out for the best. 1920 it a stocks, this time it was real estate. Either way, when the investments don't pay off, like is happening now, the debts don't get repaid and.... All fall down. Trillions of dollars in excess residential mortgage debt need to "just go away". Trillions in commercial property. At least $1 trillion in non-mortgage consumer debt. Probably anopther $1 trillion in small business debt.American standard of living needs to fall by atleast 10%, the amount above our income that we've been spending for most of this decade.As manufacturing went overseas, we replaced it with debt generation economy. The highest paying jobs in the country are borrowing money from China and the oil states, then lending it to Americans who can't pay it back. That industry needs to go away and be replaced by something else... and not building too many houses and selling them to each other as "investment properties" or flipping condos. We are going to have a lot of pain as the fake, debt based, economy goes away. And we're just at the start.

[Jargonator 0]

English banks took a hammering today too (like everywhere I guess)BARC -9.8%HBOS -17.5%HSBC -3.2%Sucks for esop valueProbably only a matter of time til more bail-outs a la Northern Rock are needed

[WrongWay 0]

"But what is scary about all of this is that not one person I have talked to today has a clue of what is going on."Then you've been talking to the wrong people. What is going in is really quite simple.During the tech wreck and after 9/11, the fed lowered interest rates to below the rate of inflation. Stocks were crashing, bonds were paying crud, commoditeis were heading into the toilet. Everyone with money went looking for better returns. They found mortgage backed securities MBS. Pools of mortgages that were reinsured, and sliced and diced into pieces. High rate of return with little to no real risk since the models were able to predict the default rate and recovery rate for the mortgages.The demand for MBS skyrocketed, and mortgage originators sprang up all over, each fighting each other to give the loans withthe worst terms to the worst credit risks... after all, those paid the highest rate of return. Easy money in the mortgage market lead to higher demand, and rising property prices, which bloomed into a full blown speculator frenzy. Places like Florida, California, Las Vegas, Carolinas, and my stomping grounds Phoenix, saw prices double or more in just a 3-4 years. Now those prices are undoubling. We're down better than 30% here in PHX with the end still a good long distance away. Mortgage originators loaned a lot of money to a lot of people who simply can't pay it back unless the house can be sold at peak prices, which it can't. So, the loands default. Worse, recovery rates are FAR lower than predicted. The models used to price MBS are shown to be crud, and the prices of the MBS crash hard. Anyone with real estate exposure is losing money fast. Sure, the Fed has lowered interest rates. The hope was that by borrowing at 2% and lending at 8%+. banks and brokerages would make enough money, fast enough, to cover all their losses. But that isn't happening. All types of loans are seeing skyrocketing default rates. There is little to no big corporate banking busineess (M&A, IPO, etc) going on that will allow huge profits. Thes brokerages are making $ billions a quarter, but losing $10s of billions a quarter on their real estate protfolios and MBS investments.So, one after another they go under. First Bear, but the Fed stepped in with $40 billion in loan guarantees. Then the AMBAC and MBIA... slowed the collapse. Then $125 billion stimulus to hold the economy out of recession for another quarter. Freddie and Fannie.Now the Fed is holding the line. Sorry banks and brokerages, but no more Bear style loan guarantees to allow orderly unwind. They tried to get all the other big players to chip in money to cover Lehman's losses, but no deal was possible. So, Lehman just ceases to exist with stock holders getting nothing, bond holders may get nothing, and there will likely be significant losses to the people that had Lehman as a counter party.... I loan you money, and you loan me money, and we both collect fees from each other... great way to show revenue and assets, as long as we can both repay each other. Not so good fro me if you cease to exist and can't pay me back.Property values will keep falling. All the debt that is backed by mortgage debt will keep defaulting. Anyone with real estate exposure will collapse. Americans will find it is no longer possible to spend 10% more than we earn, as we've been doing. Our standard of living will suffer, there will be mass job losses, we're going to have either hyper-stagflation or a depression. Then, maybe 5-8 years from now, after the pain is done, we'll rebuild our economy based on mining,manufacturing and agriculture, instead of hainv an economy based on buying stuff from China using debt financed by China.In short, the fake economy that has been based on little more than lending money that can never be repaid, is collapsing.