VegasBone 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 I'm horrible at figuring stuff like this out....so I figure I would ask.If I am holding AQ....what is the probability that one of my opponents is either holding AA or QQ in the pocket?The assumptions are that this is a HE, 9 person table Link to post Share on other sites
doublemeup 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Ok nobody cares about that. I have a question. Whats the probability that you're have exactly the same hand as your opponent in Omaha. 2 days ago my opponent and I both had 9923. Link to post Share on other sites
bascomeb 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 I believe the bigger question is what's the probability you're posting this because you're upset that you lost a hand? Link to post Share on other sites
_Great_Dane_ 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 I'm horrible at figuring stuff like this out....so I figure I would ask.If I am holding AQ....what is the probability that one of my opponents is either holding AA or QQ in the pocket?The assumptions are that this is a HE, 9 person tableLow. Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Whats the probability that you're have exactly the same hand as your opponent in Omaha. Ok nobody cares about that.FYP Link to post Share on other sites
VegasBone 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 I believe the bigger question is what's the probability you're posting this because you're upset that you lost a hand?I'm glad everyone is taking the opportunity to boost their post counts by posting absolute garbage on what could be some good information for anyone in a similar situation preflop. I apologize I didn't ask a question about Dreamclown or the G.C.C....as those seem to be the only threads that get responses at least in the same subject area.To answer your well thought out and pertinent question.....I actually won the hand. I wanted to see the mathematics behind trying to read if the opponent has such a hand vs two high cards....which could be a factor when other tells and pot odds are not as clear to make such decisions in the betting process.Believe it or not, it is important to not only question the hands you lose, but the hands you win.To just make one final statement.....I want the old general back....where did it go? Link to post Share on other sites
Chief 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 To just make one final statement.....+1fyp Link to post Share on other sites
WKTSWAY 0 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Well, there's a 0.45% chance you are dealt a pair. So the chance that those 2 specific pairs would be dealt to 2 people on a 9 person table are very low.The probablility of being dealt AQo is 0.9%So, the chance that each of those hands are dealt to 3 people on a 9 person table are extremely low.Did you have AQ and AQ flopped with the other 2 people having sets? I don't understand why you would be asking this. The odds are low of it happening, but there's never a 0% chance of someone getting dealt certain hands, Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 It looks to be about 5% someone will have AA/QQ and 10% someone has AA/KK/QQ when you have AQ at a 9 person table.I'm doing this real rough though. Link to post Share on other sites
VegasBone 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Did you have AQ and AQ flopped with the other 2 people having sets? Â I don't understand why you would be asking this. Â The odds are low of it happening, but there's never a 0% chance of someone getting dealt certain hands,I was just asking to see if there is some mathematical back up when trying to read if an opponent has a pocket pair that would have you more dominated than the typical coin flip.Here is the situation as the hand played out1/2 NLH cash game at Caesar's PalaceMe and this girl about 4 positions to my right got tangled in a hand early after I sat down.I had the Krablar and like the good FCP Charter Member that I am....I jammed it down her throat until she folded....which gave me about a $250 pot. When she folded...I then showed the mighty Krablar to the table and said the obligatory "Hail to the Krablar!" (I did not do the dance though as I felt I had done enough damage)She was obviously steaming from this quite a bit....and everytime there after she would try to push me out of pots....and I let her do it most of the time if I wasn't too confident in my hand. Her tiltage was also making her bet all of her chips on drawing hands....and she lucked out on all of them.About an 1.5 hours from the Krablar incident...the following hand happened.Villian is BBI am in mid position with A Q and I raise to $20 (very loose 1/2 game) with no callers before me, and then everyone folds after me to the villian who reraises to $60.Action is to me...and now I decide to take a stand with Big Chick....I reraise to $180.Action back to the villian....who thinks about it....turns around to her friend standing behind her....and asked "What time is it?" Her friend said "Almost midnight" and she then says..."Oh....then I'm all in" Her all in move reraised me to about $400 straight ($220 to call)....so combined with my $180 already in the pot...puts the total pot at $580.I then go into the tank. Remembering how she was playing / acting with me and others....I started to dismiss the possibility of AA and KK. With me having AQ....that takes away one A that she could have and one Q....so some donkified part of my brain said that she had JJ. The only hand that made me nervous with her was AK...as she was really playing the hell out of it the entire night. I figured that with a coin flip and me getting better than 2-1 on my money...I guess I should call...so I did. If she had AK...then a Happy New Year to her.She flips over Q Q ....I did not reveal my cards until the end...mostly due to the extreme embarrassment of my call.In any event....4 clubs hit the board and I made a Q high flush...winning the pot. She then proceeded to call me things in her native language and left the table.So...that was the hand that spawned my original question. I figure maybe some statistics on the probability of having shared cards would help myself and other people making the all important AK decisions as well as AQ. Link to post Share on other sites
SpeedKills 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 I believe the bigger question is what's the probability you're posting this because you're upset that you lost a hand?most likely high Link to post Share on other sites
GoCryWolfe 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 I believe the bigger question is what's the probability you're posting this because you're upset that you lost a hand?most likely highSpeed is not the only thing that kills... read the whole topic, and youll find out he won the hand. Just sayin... Link to post Share on other sites
goose 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Ok nobody cares about that. I have a question. Whats the probability that you're have exactly the same hand as your opponent in Omaha. 2 days ago my opponent and I both had 9923.what the hell were you two doing BOTH showing down that hand? Link to post Share on other sites
endo 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Did you have AQ and AQ flopped with the other 2 people having sets? Â I don't understand why you would be asking this. Â The odds are low of it happening, but there's never a 0% chance of someone getting dealt certain hands,I was just asking to see if there is some mathematical back up when trying to read if an opponent has a pocket pair that would have you more dominated than the typical coin flip.Here is the situation as the hand played out1/2 NLH cash game at Caesar's PalaceMe and this girl about 4 positions to my right got tangled in a hand early after I sat down.I had the Krablar and like the good FCP Charter Member that I am....I jammed it down her throat until she folded....which gave me about a $250 pot. When she folded...I then showed the mighty Krablar to the table and said the obligatory "Hail to the Krablar!" (I did not do the dance though as I felt I had done enough damage)She was obviously steaming from this quite a bit....and everytime there after she would try to push me out of pots....and I let her do it most of the time if I wasn't too confident in my hand. Her tiltage was also making her bet all of her chips on drawing hands....and she lucked out on all of them.About an 1.5 hours from the Krablar incident...the following hand happened.Villian is BBI am in mid position with A Q and I raise to $20 (very loose 1/2 game) with no callers before me, and then everyone folds after me to the villian who reraises to $60.Action is to me...and now I decide to take a stand with Big Chick....I reraise to $180.Action back to the villian....who thinks about it....turns around to her friend standing behind her....and asked "What time is it?" Her friend said "Almost midnight" and she then says..."Oh....then I'm all in" Her all in move reraised me to about $400 straight ($220 to call)....so combined with my $180 already in the pot...puts the total pot at $580.I then go into the tank. Remembering how she was playing / acting with me and others....I started to dismiss the possibility of AA and KK. With me having AQ....that takes away one A that she could have and one Q....so some donkified part of my brain said that she had JJ. The only hand that made me nervous with her was AK...as she was really playing the hell out of it the entire night. I figured that with a coin flip and me getting better than 2-1 on my money...I guess I should call...so I did. If she had AK...then a Happy New Year to her.She flips over Q Q ....I did not reveal my cards until the end...mostly due to the extreme embarrassment of my call.In any event....4 clubs hit the board and I made a Q high flush...winning the pot. She then proceeded to call me things in her native language and left the table.So...that was the hand that spawned my original question. I figure maybe some statistics on the probability of having shared cards would help myself and other people making the all important AK decisions as well as AQ.It doesn't really matter what the probability of a random hand containing QQ while you hold AQ is. You need to know the range of hands with which your opponent can re-re-re-raise you all-in. I have no experience with this person you were playing against, but I'd have a tough time calling with AQ against a lot of players with which I've played no-limit cash who stick in a 4th raise all-in. Again, though, it depends on what kind of trash appears in your opponent's range of hands that they're capable of making this play with. By the way, why such a huge initial raise of 10 times the big blind? That's a pretty big overbet. Link to post Share on other sites
ajs1281 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Why are you only worried about AA or QQ, not AK or KK?But for your question, I am giving you AhQh (just to make it easier)Basically the best way to look at it is there are 3 ways to make a pair of acesAcAsAcAdAsAd3 ways to make a pair of queensQcQsQcQdQsQdSo you are looking at 6 hands that YOU are worried about (personally I throw in alot more hands, but that wasnt your question)Now by my look I would say its about 1/18 or so that they have one of these 2 hands but my math is probably off and like i said, i would probably be worried about alot more.Its late, but i hope it helps Link to post Share on other sites
stealfromblind 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 I believe the bigger question is what's the probability you're posting this because you're upset that you lost a hand? Link to post Share on other sites
VegasBone 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 By the way, why such a huge initial raise of 10 times the big blind? Â That's a pretty big overbet.It's great to follow the BB rule in tournament situations and maybe once you reach 2/5 NLH.When you are in a B&M, the blinds really don't mean anything in lower blind no limit....it's more about the buy ins. Most casinos here in Vegas have a $200 max buy in for their 1/2. Caesar's has a $500 max buy in on its 1/2, and then begins to have no max on 2/5 and above. Dont' forget....1/2 is the lowest blind structure a B&M will offer, and raising in increments of the BB does not have the same effect that it does in tournament and higher blind situations.Think about it. A "correct" raise is 3x the BB, making it $6 to go. It would still be a family pot at $6. 1/2 NLH B&M players still typically think in $5 increments. In the table's view...I actually made a 4x BB raise, which isolated one person...which is what I wanted with AQ. Get the suited cards, connected cards, or both out of there when you are drawing for a big pair big kicker situation.Now...to tackle the why I called questions..........Read the post I made right before this one. After the Krablar hand....she wanted to push me around. She was steamed and putting her chips in bad situations. She called someones all in with J10 suited at one point, risking half her chip stack....she made the straight. Her and her friend were slow playing the nuts all night...when she was trying to end it pre flop...she didn't have it....which is why I wasn't worried about AA or KK.As far as AK....I that was the hand I was worried about the most....but history told me that she would have pushed all in the 1st time, not waited the second time around.As far as QQ....well that's why I asked the question I asked in the first place. My reasoning at the time for dismissing QQ was partly (notice I said partly) due to me having one of the Q's. I just wanted to see if there were any mathematics to support my reasoning. If you factor in things like hand statistics, tells, table image, pot odds, etc.....it will help you make a more complete and educated decision.....and I just wanted to see what the statistics were of her holding the QQ (or the AA)....and I thought it would be nice to find that out so we all have that mathematical knowledge when we are all put in situations with AQ or AK in the future.Will this information make every decision for you with AQ or AK....absolutely not....but maybe it will just be an additional piece to the puzzle to help you make the right decision down the road. Link to post Share on other sites
dreamcaster 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Ok nobody cares about that. I have a question. Whats the probability that you're have exactly the same hand as your opponent in Omaha. 2 days ago my opponent and I both had 9923 and both folded pre-flop.I hope. Link to post Share on other sites
doublemeup 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 It was 3 handed and we both were in the blinds so no. Link to post Share on other sites
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