festivus checkup. bb with 56o. no, really! (2/4)

[Sluggo 0]

3.5 : 1

[RISEorFall 0]

This is the part I'll argue.  UTG has all the signs of a TAG to me, which means his raising hands UTG are:AK-AJ (and maybe ATs)KQ-KJ (and maybe KTs, but I won't count it)(maybe QJs, but I won't count it)AA-77  

Nope. TIGHT aggressive means he's not raising most of these hands UTG. I give him AKs and off, AQs and maybe off. Maybe AJs. AA-1010. KQs and maybe KJs but I doubt it. No way in hell he's raising QJs. If he's tight enough he's even folding AQo, AJs and anything lower than KQo. I see about 9-10 hands a tight player is raising here, and half of those are high PPs. Tight players might CALL with KQo and KJs, QJs and 99-77, but they won't raise them, not UTG

[RISEorFall 0]

[What are the minimum odds with which you would call with this hand in the BB and why?  Jeff

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell. if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.

[borinka99 0]

[What are the minimum odds with which you would call with this hand in the BB and why? Jeff

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell. if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.

I don't know exactly, but I know that the odds of flopping a straight or trips is VERY LOW. I would fold this too because it is just a bad hand, you have to flop something perfect to win, and even then you can be outdrawn, not mentioning the horrible position.

[Sysvr4 0]

if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.

People keep using this fallacious argument.Daniel was advising the OP in the other thread to call. He didn't say, "I and only I should call because of my superior, and unique post-flop abilities". Furthermore, I think many of you are deluding yourselves if you think the ability of the pros are so vastly superior that they can turn what many of you believe is a clearly -EV call such as this into a +EV one. I'm not saying being good post flop doesn't help, but the argument many of you are inadvertently making is that someone like Daniel could cold call all day with 23o and magically make it +EV.And FYI, this argument is not to say the call was correct. I still haven't figured that out yet, but I felt the need to point out this particular fallacy.Jeff

[Sysvr4 0]

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell

That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. I agree that we'll need a big piece of the flop though. I think it's something like:a) two pairB) tripsc) pair that turns into two pair or trips on turn or (maybe) riverd) oesd on the flop that comes in by the rivere) gutshot on the flop that comes in by the turnPerhaps I'll spend some time today calculating and adding the odds of all of these.Jeff

[Sysvr4 0]

I'm spewing in my own thread here, sorry.I've been doing some calculating on this problem, but before I show the results of that I have one last question for everyone saying this is an easy fold:Do you also fold if we have 56s in this same spot?If not, what are the minimum odds you need to call if your hand is a suited connector vs. an unsuited one in the BB?Jeff

[screech 0]

I hate that "if you have DNs skillz call" crap too. Obviously he's a better player than anyone here, but I don't think he is that much better that he can squeeze enough out of the hand to make it profitable.Jeff,I call with 56s all day here. That extra 6% pf equity is a huge difference. I probably should have been clearer in my previous posts that calling with 56o here isn't a huge leak, but it's definetly a money loser in the long run.

[Actuary 3]

I find when I'm running good at the table, usually showing down Aq type hands, I might call with 65o in a multitway pot...to show trash down. Anyone forgetting I was BB especially, gets annoyed. Hell, anyone who loses.but, its fun to play it, not porfitable, long term imo..but really close..so fun wins often!65s? all day.In a lot more places than just BB, too.

[mrdannyg 274]

if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.

People keep using this fallacious argument.Daniel was advising the OP in the other thread to call. He didn't say, "I and only I should call because of my superior, and unique post-flop abilities". Furthermore, I think many of you are deluding yourselves if you think the ability of the pros are so vastly superior that they can turn what many of you believe is a clearly -EV call such as this into a +EV one. I'm not saying being good post flop doesn't help, but the argument many of you are inadvertently making is that someone like Daniel could cold call all day with 23o and magically make it +EV.And FYI, this argument is not to say the call was correct. I still haven't figured that out yet, but I felt the need to point out this particular fallacy.Jeff

i think it is reasonable to say that a far superior player could make a marginal situation +EV, though it might be -EV for a less skilled player.i think calling 56o to a raise in a multi-way pot from the big blind is a marginal situation, though probably unprofitable. perfect (or better than perfect, i.e. with +EV bluffs) post-flop play might make this call profitable, whereas the less-than-perfect post-flop play that might be expected due to the lack of transparency with our hand probably makes this call -EV.daniel

[RISEorFall 0]

i think it is reasonable to say that a far superior player could make a marginal situation +EV, though it might be -EV for a less skilled player.i think calling 56o to a raise in a multi-way pot from the big blind is a marginal situation, though probably unprofitable.  perfect (or better than perfect, i.e. with +EV bluffs) post-flop play might make this call profitable, whereas the less-than-perfect post-flop play that might be expected due to the lack of transparency with our hand probably makes this call -EV.daniel

Yeah, basically. If you have the skills to read your opponent's hands for almost exactly what they are, determine if you're beat or not, and then determine if you can make them lay a better hand down or not - and the skills to maximize your profit if you do flop something big, then by all means play this hand all day. If you don't, well, whatever. If you want to play this hand in this spot because "Daniel said I could" then you have fun. Don't let me get in your way.

[Sluggo 0]

Probability of flopping two pairs or trips or a full house or quads:6*5/50/49+6*5/50/48+6*5/49/48-2*6*5*4/50/49/48 = .036Probability of flopping open ended straight draw:((8*8+8*4)*(42+41+40))/50/49/48 = .100which will improve to a straight about 34% of the time (we'll have odds to call to the river)Probability of flopping straight:4*12*8*4/50/49/48 = .013Because these are all powerful hands, I'm going to assume they all win at showdown. This tiny overestimate is canceled by the probably greater fact that we won't bet at weakness or ever win with a pair. Now let's determine EV. If two players fold on the flop and one player calls us down (or three-bets flop and folds river, or raises turn and fold river) or we call down with our straight draw, the pot will be 18 bbs at showdown.So if we call getting 7:1 on our money...We win 18 bbs 8.3% of the time with a monster and spend 1 bb 100% and 3bb an additional 10% of the time when we chase our straight draw.EV= 18*.083 - 1-3*.1= .194 bbsIf we fold...EV=0.194 > 0, thus we should call.If we were getting 3.5:1 on our money (so we win less and can't draw to the river with a straight draw)...EV = -.243This second figure is an approximation assuming we never win with a pair or bluff which is probably untrue in a heads up pot.This all means if there is one coldcaller or more, we can profitably call. Even if there isn't a caller, it still may be profitable, depending on postflop play.I think some people (myself included) are getting into a frame of mind where some hands are "bad" and some are "good." It all depends on equity and the odds you're being offered. 7:1 is huge. Getting into the pot for half price makes any coordinated hand (suited or connected or high) worth playing.

You HAVE to call with that hand in the BB. Folding would, without out a shadow of a doubt, be a mistake...

-DN, referring to 45o getting 9.5:1He doesn't seem to think this is very marginal.

[Wingmaster05 0]

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell

That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff

Huh? there is no way that is right.

[Sluggo 0]

It isn't 91% because two pair can be counterfeited by the board pairing.There's a 91% that AA won't hit a third on the turn or river.

[mrdannyg 274]

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell

That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff

Huh? there is no way that is right.

nope.depending on which two pair we flop:top two:http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=2c%2C...d%0D%0A5s%2C+6c73.7:26.3bottom two:http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=Jc%2C...d%0D%0A5s%2C+6c74.5:25.5since they're connected, it's gotta be top or bottom two, so we are closer to a 3:1 favourite, not 9:1.for most people who, like myself, skip long and boring strat posts with lots of numbers, i suggest actually reading sluggo's post. some good good stuff in there.daniel

[mrdannyg 274]

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell

That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff

Huh? there is no way that is right.

nope.depending on which two pair we flop:top two:http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=2c%2C...d%0D%0A5s%2C+6c73.7:26.3bottom two:http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=Jc%2C...d%0D%0A5s%2C+6c74.5:25.5since they're connected, it's gotta be top or bottom two, so we are closer to a 3:1 favourite, not 9:1.for most people who, like myself, skip long and boring strat posts with lots of numbers, i suggest actually reading sluggo's post. some good good stuff in there.daniel

oops. forgot sometimes you have better than two pair.sluggo was also mistaken though, since AA will often have more than two outs, since one of the easiest ways for 56 to get ahead of AA is by flopping two pair, and AA will have more than two outs against that.so its somewhere between a 3:1 and a 9:1 favourite

[Sysvr4 0]

Huh?   there is no way that is right.

Evidently not because I can't replicate the results. The only thing I can figure is that I fat-fingered it and typed 55 or 66 instead of 56 for my hole cards :)Jeff

[Sluggo 0]

I don't see how so many people claimed 56o was an easy fold. You're getting great odds, enough to claim that 56o is an easy call.

[screech 0]

I don't see how so many people claimed 56o was an easy fold. You're getting great odds, enough to claim that 56o is an easy call.

Sluggo,You're analysis is well thought out, but it's wrong. A small 2 pair will often hold up, but it will frequently get counterfeited or beated by stronger hands. When this happens, you lose a lot. Same goes for when you flop hands like middle pair, or top pair. Your reverse implied odds are terrible. I also think you're giving way to much credit to how large the pots we win will be. To think we will win 18BB pots about 8.3% of the time is a gross overestimate. I can't even remember the last time I won an 18bb pot. Let alone with a small 2 pair, trips with a weak kicker, or quads. There's no way you get that much action with these hands.

spend 1 bb 100% and 2bb an additional 10% of the time when we chase our straight draw.

I have no idea wher you got these numbers to. We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's? Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here. An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.

[Actuary 3]

I'll go on record to say, I'm making calls with these hands more often. Implied tilt odds, table image, uh..stubborn, and practice.Anyone else fessing up?

[econ_tim 0]

you should fold thisespecially if you are multi-tabling

[Sluggo 0]

Sluggo,I have no idea wher you got these numbers to.  We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's?  Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here.  An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.

bbs, not BBs. An 18 big bet pot would be huge. An 18 big blind pot, not so much. A pot with 9 limpers and a raise is already 18 big blinds before the flop is even dealt. When we chase, we call 1 bb on the flop and 2 bb on the turn for a total of 3 bbs which I edited my post to reflect.

[Wingmaster05 0]

I'll go on record to say, I'm making calls with these hands more often.  Implied tilt odds, table image, uh..stubborn, and practice.Anyone else fessing up?

Me too. A quick glance at the pot and mulitple cold calls...and i usually call.

[Canada 0]

Very easy call. make it all day long.UTG has announced he has a monster and is on your immediate left (that is not a pre-req, just a bonus)Reading his and the rest of the fields hands will be extremely easy.Everyone seems to be scared of the counterfitting, however if you do flop a decent hand you will be paid off to the end because of the pot size and opponents holdings.Also your good hands will still hold up the vast majority of timesEdit: The single most important reason for playing these hands. Can everyone say "Implied tilt odds"?

[screech 0]

Sluggo,I have no idea wher you got these numbers to.  We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's?  Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here.  An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.

bbs, not BBs. An 18 big bet pot would be huge. An 18 big blind pot, not so much. A pot with 9 limpers and a raise is already 18 big blinds before the flop is even dealt. When we chase, we call 1 bb on the flop and 2 bb on the turn for a total of 3 bbs which I edited my post to reflect.

My mistake.I had no idea there was a difference betweeen BB's and bb's. :-)Good analysis sluggo. I wonder how well the 1 gappers do?