a-ko in big pot

[econ_tim 0]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converterPreflop: econ_tim is MP3 with [As], [Kc]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, econ_tim calls, SB calls.Flop: (18 SB) [7c], [3h], [8h] (4 players)SB bets, UTG+1 folds, econ_tim calls, SB calls.Turn: (12 BB) [3c] (3 players)SB checks, BB bets, econ_tim ... ?I think raising this turn might be in order.What is your turn move and what's your river plan?

[justblaze 0]

entirely dependent on bb read. ive folded AKo in this spot preflop, but only because my read on BB says he only makes this raise with AA or KK.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

I'm pretty sure I'd definitely fold the turn with naked, possibly dirty overs and all the information in the world that one or both of the blinds have pocket pairs.

[mk 11]

What does the turn raise accomplish when BB is jamming every street? He's not going anywhere and SB might hang in for 1 bet. No need to iso.Getting 12:1, I think seeing the river as cheaply as possible is fine. Folding to a bet if UI on the river. You'll be getting 15:1 at best. Maybe worth a call, but I think there's almost no chance he's bluffing.

[shpaget 0]

I fold.Don't be surprised if SB has 33.I think anything else is overplaying these overcards.Both these guys have pairs (and I wouldn't rule out AA or KK)...so if you do hit your card you could be in real deep doodoo.Yeah....you're 6 to 1 to hit one of your cards...but does hitting an Ace or King give you the hand? Of 13 pocket pairs those two guys could have, 4 of them have you drawing dead, and one makes you 12 to 1 to win...and you can probably rule out 22, 44, 55, 66....so of 9 pairs they probably have, half of them kill you.Maybe I'm a coward and both these guys are playing straight draws, but I doubt it.

[greatwhite 0]

Don't play a big pot unless you can have a big hand. You could be drawing dead. Someone probablly has aces, kings, or queens here also limiting your outs.

[econ_tim 0]

Don't play a big pot unless you can have a big hand. You could be drawing dead. Someone probablly has aces, kings, or queens here also limiting your outs.

This is the wrong way to think about limit. You should be more likely to play your marginal hands in big pots.

[econ_tim 0]

I'm pretty sure I'd definitely fold the turn with naked, possibly dirty overs and all the information in the world that one or both of the blinds have pocket pairs.

Getting 13 to 1, I don't need many outs.

[shpaget 0]

I'm pretty sure I'd definitely fold the turn with naked, possibly dirty overs and all the information in the world that one or both of the blinds have pocket pairs.

Getting 13 to 1, I don't need many outs.

YOu need 6 outs...and it's questionable if you have 6 outs.There are at least 4 feasible hands where you have 0 outs.And one where you only have 3.I wouldn't even rule out a hand like 78s...meaning another feasible hand giving you 0 outs.I doubt 34, but I wouldn't rule out A3, giving you 0 outs, or even A7, A8, giving you 3 outs.I just don't see anything there that these players LIKELY have that you are beating....and I see a lot of hands where you don't have 6 outs.I suppose 9T is possible.Ax hearts? AK hearts? A8 clubs?QQ, JJ, TT, 99. I'd rule out 66, 55, 44, 22. I see more likely hands where you're drawing dead or have only 3 outs, than likely hands that you're winning or have 6 outs.BUt like I said, maybe I'm a coward here, but I think you're overplaying Big Slick here.Do you think they're both on draws?

[econ_tim 0]

YOu need 6 outs

It's closer to 3 and a half.

[mk 11]

YOu need 6 outs...and it's questionable if you have 6 outs.No. Getting 13:1 we only need 3.5 outs to be better than even money.edited: using rule of four instead of two thinking there were still two cards to come.

[KDawgCometh 2]

i really don't know about this flop call. Your getting 10-1 on a 3.5 outer, and I don't know if you have anything in the way of implied odds there. I think I'd fold the flop

[mk 11]

I wouldn't even rule out a hand like 78s...meaning another feasible hand giving you 0 outs. I doubt 34, but I wouldn't rule out A3, giving you 0 outs, or even A7, A8, giving you 3 outs. It was capped preflop, remember?

[econ_tim 0]

i really don't know about this flop call. Your getting 10-1 on a 3.5 outer, and I don't know if you have anything in the way of implied odds there. I think I'd fold the flop

I agonized over the flop call. Good thing it wasn't a live game.I wish I had a better read on the BB, because against certain types I would 3 bet the flop.

[shpaget 0]

I wouldn't even rule out a hand like 78s...meaning another feasible hand giving you 0 outs. I doubt 34, but I wouldn't rule out A3, giving you 0 outs, or even A7, A8, giving you 3 outs. It was capped preflop, remember?

With two probable callers and two potential callers, I wouldn't put it past some of these guys to do this with suited connectors...or even sometimes Ax suited (no, I wouldn't, but I see it as often as I don't)...AK suited isn't a huge stretch.I wouldn't call them likely, but I think they need to be considered.The likely hands I put here are AA, KK, 88, 77, 33 and 78s....drawing dead to 4 of them, and 3 outs to 1 of them.The next level of likely hands (but, IMO, less likely) are QQ, JJ, TT, 99....6 outs to each of them....along with 9Ts.

[mk 11]

The next level of likely hands (but, IMO, less likely) are QQ, JJ, TT, 99....6 outs to each of them.Do you see why mathematically it's much more likely that villian holds one of these?

[shpaget 0]

The next level of likely hands (but, IMO, less likely) are QQ, JJ, TT, 99....6 outs to each of them.Do you see why mathematically it's much more likely that villian holds one of these?

Mathematically, yes, absolutely.QQ through 99 - 6 combinations eachAA, KK, 88, 77 - 3 combinations each78s - 9 combinations33 - 1 combinationSo - 19 combinations drawing dead, 3 combinations with 3 outs vs. 24 combinations with 6 outs.22 combinations are below pot odds, 24 barely meet pot odds (depending what you think of 78s)several combinations (though less likely) also are below pot oddsa few less combinations (also less likely) meet pot oddsEdit: my mistake: you have 6 outs against a guy with 7-8...A or K gives you higher two pair.

[speedz99 145]

i really don't know about this flop call. Your getting 10-1 on a 3.5 outer, and I don't know if you have anything in the way of implied odds there. I think I'd fold the flop

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

I realize the pot's big.But I also realize that if these donks have anything close to what they're trying to represent, we're behind and drawing thin.And I've been known to overplay overcards to get myself in trouble. That's all.I still fold the turn for sure, maybe the flop. I'd agonize over the flop call too, because getting whipsawed on a capped flop (which ended up not happening, but could have) sure would suck.

[RISEorFall 0]

Getting 13 to 1, I don't need many outs.

That's good, because you don't have many. You don't have any backdoor draws either. If you don't fold the flop, fold the turn. Raising the turn would be the worst thing to do I think...