ivey winning his 5th bracelet adds weight

[Landon_McFly 0]

i think ivey is one of the best poker players to ever walk the earth, but i would go for the 100 million for sure, i have much more than 1 in 100 chance of winning

:wall: If money means ANYTHING to you, take the money and bounce. I mean, yea if you won, you'd be 100mil richer and it'd be the greatest stories ever, but more likely than not your new found claim would simply be "the moron who really thought he was gonna beat phil ivey."Do the right thing...Try not to suck at life.Would you play around the world with Robert Horry for 100mil?I honestly think that would be more +ev than playing Ivey.Phil has the skills to get inside anyone's head and pick their brain apart with a phucking pitchfork.I think aces and kings says something about him like...And when you play back at him... that's when he takes it to another level.DON'T BE THAT GUY!

[Landon_McFly 0]

:shock: I just took a look at the poll results, and realized that 40% of FCP forum members are without a doubt braindead.actually that number is probably more like 37%Don't try to give me that shit like "at least I took a shot." That would be such a nieve thing to say. Maybe if you're a multimillionare already or something I can understand, but get realistic and be honest with yourself.ONE MILLION DOLLARS!22.2 lbs OF MONEY!ARE YOU FRIGGIN INSANE?If I walked into a room and was given the choice of leaving with a suitcase full of money, or playing Phil heads-up for 100mil at a table in the corner, I'd probably shart in my pants, grab the suitcase, and tell Phil that I'm not your average sucker." Even if I later found out that the suitcase was filled with pennies, I'd feel less disappontment than I would when Phil busted me with a smile.DON'T BE AN OPTIMIST, BE A REALIST :wink:

[grittybones 0]

THIS IS HILLARIOUS!Beyond the fact that we're talking about a totally ridiculous hypothetical situation there's a very simple problem for anyone here who is saying they'd take the heads-up for $100 million.YOU LOSE MONEY.If you think there's a good chance that you can beat a top-flight pro heads-up (let's say 30-40 percent), then you've got to believe you would KILL a 1500/3000 with your $1 million bankroll. After killing that for a short period of time, you move up limits and kill that one too. Then the next step. And, before you know it, you not only will have grown that $1 into a much larger sum, you'll have done so with a far reduced level of risk.And, maybe after playing those limits for that long, you'd actually have a feasible shot at beating Ivey heads-up without using some kind of gimmick (going All-In every hand) that probably won't work anyway.Essentially, the only people that would have good cause to take the $100 million offer are people who 1) already kill the 4000/8000 game, or 2) don't like having money.Edit: I just realized that there isn't a person on this thread who has a 30-percent chance of beating Phil Ivey heads-up. That was a ridiculous statement. Let's make that 15-percent, tops. And don't bother saying otherwise, because you know it's a lie.

[brian67 0]

If you think there's a good chance that you can beat a top-flight pro heads-up (let's say 30-40 percent), then you've got to believe you would KILL a 1500/3000 with your $1 million bankroll. After killing that for a short period of time, you move up limits and kill that one too. Then the next step. And, before you know it, you not only will have grown that $1 into a much larger sum, you'll have done so with a far reduced level of risk.

Do you know what you are saying here? That was a ridiculous statement, do you have any idea how hard it would be to make 100 million dollars playing cash games? And as for level of risk, let's look at that...by playing Ivey you are only risking not getting 1 million for doing nothing, yet by taking the million and playing cash games you are risking that same million, yet in scenario two you can be guaranteed that the payout will not be 100 million dollars. And moreover, to say that the cash game route is easier is ridiculous. Playing 4000-8000 for the rest of your life to try to make 100 million dollars against an entire table comprised of some of the greatest cash game players alive (including Ivey) would obviously be a far greater task than beating him in one heads up match.

And, maybe after playing those limits for that long, you'd actually have a feasible shot at beating Ivey heads-up without using some kind of gimmick (going All-In every hand) that probably won't work anyway.Essentially, the only people that would have good cause to take the $100 million offer are people who 1) already kill the 4000/8000 game, or 2) don't like having money.

This is heads up hold em, and no you would not have to be a someone that kills the 4000-8000 game consistently to consider playing. For one, no one consistently kills the big game, some can consistently beat it, but you can count them all on one hand (ivey included). The big game is not heads up, and it is also not just hold em. Ivey is not necessarily a favorite against every player in the world either, there is such thing as specialists, and they do not have to be playing at the highest limits either.

Edit: I just realized that there isn't a person on this thread who has a 30-percent chance of beating Phil Ivey heads-up. That was a ridiculous statement. Let's make that 15-percent, tops. And don't bother saying otherwise, because you know it's a lie.

15 % in a heads up match? The edge can never be that large with two experienced players. There are too many variables, and unless the blind structure is something like 1000+ BB, then the lesser player will always have a fair chance at winning.

[MtDewVirus 0]

Easy choice!1 million is more money that most of us will ever know what to do with, so what would you do with 99 more? Sure, if you win you could give it away to others, but what if you lose? Now it's back to work and you just made the dumbest risk of your life.I can't see anyone taking a risk at the 100 million unless the 1 million wouldn't mean anything to their life. Even if you you think the odds are in your favor, life isn't always about the odds. Just think about the money and it's really an easy choice for us average Joe's.Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Guaranteed money is yours!

[grittybones 0]

First of all, fair points all. But I disagree.

Do you know what you are saying here? That was a ridiculous statement, do you have any idea how hard it would be to make 100 million dollars playing cash games? And as for level of risk, let's look at that...by playing Ivey you are only risking not getting 1 million for doing nothing, yet by taking the million and playing cash games you are risking that same million, yet in scenario two you can be guaranteed that the payout will not be 100 million dollars. And moreover, to say that the cash game route is easier is ridiculous. Playing 4000-8000 for the rest of your life to try to make 100 million dollars against an entire table comprised of some of the greatest cash game players alive (including Ivey) would obviously be a far greater task than beating him in one heads up match.

Not saying you would make $100 million playing cash games. Nor are you going to make $100 million playing heads up against Ivey, for all practical purposes. What I am saying is that $1 million could turn into a lot more with a lot less risk. And you wouldn't have to play the 4000/8000 ... heck, you wouldn't even have to start out at 1500/3000. Whatever's comfortable. More than anything, the $1 million would give you the capability of playing the biggest limits you believe you could win consistently at.

This is heads up hold em, and no you would not have to be a someone that kills the 4000-8000 game consistently to consider playing. For one, no one consistently kills the big game, some can consistently beat it, but you can count them all on one hand (ivey included). The big game is not heads up, and it is also not just hold em. Ivey is not necessarily a favorite against every player in the world either, there is such thing as specialists, and they do not have to be playing at the highest limits either.

Wasn't saying it was heads up. But in terms of skill/reward ratio, just about anything beats heads-up, which is a coin flip at best against a top-flight pro. But a ring game? You can, given a skill advantage which you either possess or could develop thanks to your bankroll, count on winning over the long haul.

15 % in a heads up match? The edge can never be that large with two experienced players. There are too many variables, and unless the blind structure is something like 1000+ BB, then the lesser player will always have a fair chance at winning.

Not against a player like Ivey, you won't. You're nowhere close to each other in terms of experience, especially when it comes to that kind of money being on the line. And that's the point. Just about every person in this forum would crap their pants the first time they played Ivey or his ilk the first time for a considerable sum of money. Maybe, after time, it would be a situation you'd become comfortable with. But we're talking about a one-time shot, which translates into a very slim chance of success. Heads-up battles, leaving aside the asinine all-in-every-hand method, come down to pulling off a lot of bluffs and semi-bluffs in marginal situations. I offer that there isn't a person in here that could consistently bluff a player of Ivey's caliber. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Actuary 3]

on one hand I admire your balls..but do you know how much 1,000,000 is?It's $60,000 per year in interest alone...foreverat some point its not about 100 to 1, it's about the 1.Ask the question: 1000 or 100,000I play Phil for 100,000, screw 1000.same 100 to 1.Perhaps you are stinky rich..I make a good salary, but come'on..1 MM ?

[dmoneypoker 0]

just go all in or fold every hand until ivey calls you, and hope to suck out or you get AA and he has KK. Honestly though I'd probably take the 1 million but 100M is too big of a score to definitely say i'd pass it up. In poker anything is possible.I honestly believe you could beat ivey if you grew a pair of balls, you know hes gunna be raising and betting constantly. ALL IN BABY.Change it to Hellmuth and I'd definitely take the 1M... he is the heads up champ after all and should have swept Jesus 2-0.

[dmoneypoker 0]

Not against a player like Ivey, you won't. You're nowhere close to each other in terms of experience, especially when it comes to that kind of money being on the line. And that's the point. Just about every person in this forum would crap their pants the first time they played Ivey or his ilk the first time for a considerable sum of money. Maybe, after time, it would be a situation you'd become comfortable with. But we're talking about a one-time shot, which translates into a very slim chance of success. Heads-up battles, leaving aside the asinine all-in-every-hand method, come down to pulling off a lot of bluffs and semi-bluffs in marginal situations. I offer that there isn't a person in here that could consistently bluff a player of Ivey's caliber. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.I played with him on Full Tilt. I limped with a few others and he checked in the BB. I bet out at the flop... I think I had QJ and hit top pair of Q's... and everyone folded.Scariest moment of my life. I left the table shortly thereafter. Very different from the times I sucked out on Erick Lindgren, Perry Friedman and Andy Bloch... they didn't scare me early as much as Ivey did. Man I love Full Tilt!Best Full tilt moment: Mike Matusow busting Hoyt Corkins for like three grand preflop... 10 10 for the Mouth vs 9 9 for Corkins.Also at this table were Juanda, John d'agostino and a random dude with like 12k. I wasn't playing but I watched the whole session. I think Cunningham was there for a bit too but left before it heated up... don't remember, but it was insane.

[brian67 0]

Post Posted: Wed, Jun 29th, 2005 10:47 Post subject: brian67on one hand I admire your balls..but do you know how much 1,000,000 is?It's $60,000 per year in interest alone...foreverat some point its not about 100 to 1, it's about the 1.

Yes i know how much one $1 million is, it's 1/100 of $100 million. I think the question is more about confidence and gamble than it is anything else. I could never live with myself if I turned down such an easy (subjectively) shot at $100 million. If I lose the match I am in no worse state than I was before.$60,000 per year in interest was true years ago, today the interest rate is much lower. You would be a fool to keep that kind of money in a bank making nominal returns, invest it where you can make real gains. Some people will take risks though and others won't, just do what you are comfortable with.