Who Would You Take?

[Dread Aidan 8]

His prorated numbers for last season would be around 60 goals and 130 points...he was having a phenomenal year before he got hurt.

I'm not really comfortable taking half a year, doubling it into a career best year, and then saying this is what we should expect for future years. I think we too often tend to take a player's best year and declare that's the player he is. Now, Crosby is young and it's not far-fetched to say he might still get better, but I don't think it's a lock. And then when you add on the uncertainty of his injury... I guess it just comes down to your drafting philosophy. Do you simply take the guy with the highest ceiling or are you willing to sacrifice a little ceiling for a little less risk? I don't think either way is necessarily right or wrong.

You're right about concussions and that Crosby is a risk, but risk isn't zero with Stamkos either. He could get hurt, St. Louis could get hurt, etc.

But I think we can agree that it is more likely that the guy who is already hurt and missing games is a bigger risk than players who aren't already hurt, right? If you did a draft right now of "guys likely to miss games," who is going #1 out of the star players?

[ajs510 122]

I'm not really comfortable taking half a year, doubling it into a career best year, and then saying this is what we should expect for future years.

I wouldn't be either except those numbers aren't vastly higher than numbers he's already achieved...his career best goals is 51 and career best points is 120.

[Zach6668 513]

I think the Crosby decision is really interesting in a keeper league right now, for the 1st overall pick.I would need to factor in a couple things. Firstly, the keeper rules, and secondly, how likely it is that this group of guys or the league actually stays together for long enough that my injury risk on Crosby can be rewarded down the road, if you know what I mean.

[mrdannyg 274]

But I think we can agree that it is more likely that the guy who is already hurt and missing games is a bigger risk than players who aren't already hurt, right? If you did a draft right now of "guys likely to miss games," who is going #1 out of the star players?

Definitely. To me, St. Louis is a bigger injury risk than Stamkos, given his size, age, etc. Stamkos is going to perform without him, but he isn't a 100-point player without him.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Dont tell Arp, he is in the same pool.He is picking 12th..Snake draft..

ummm, where did you get a draft order from? I dont think thats been set.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I think the Crosby decision is really interesting in a keeper league right now, for the 1st overall pick.I would need to factor in a couple things. Firstly, the keeper rules, and secondly, how likely it is that this group of guys or the league actually stays together for long enough that my injury risk on Crosby can be rewarded down the road, if you know what I mean.

keeper rules:you can protect any 4 players, for as long as 5yrs.here's the interesting thing with this pool, that Im not sure I like.....it starts with a "rookie" draft first. Players who have played less than 100games in the NHL are eligible. Obv, what that means is, you can take guys like Hall, Skinner whatever right into your farm. However, at 100, you have to call them up.Im hoping there's a rule that the order set in the rookie draft is opposite to that set in the main draft. Wouldnt want Hall+Stamkos on same team.

[mrdannyg 274]

keeper rules:you can protect any 4 players, for as long as 5yrs.

Hmmm, figured it was indefinite, and you could change it every year.If the rules are for 5 years max, then I think I go with Stamkos or Ovechkin. If you can change it from one year to the next, Crosby becomes a better option.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Don't suppose there is room for another GM?

can you fly out here? :)the guy running it wouldnt believe in online participation.My regular draft pool will probably be on October 6th. Who's flying/driving in for that one?????

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Hmmm, figured it was indefinite, and you could change it every year.If the rules are for 5 years max, then I think I go with Stamkos or Ovechkin. If you can change it from one year to the next, Crosby becomes a better option.

You can choose anyone you want, but you can only keep him for 5yrs. max.There's no contract of dollars, so its not like cutting Crosby would cost you anything.

[Dubey 1,035]

Next 5 years, I might just take Daniel Sedin then. He'd probably be the 'safest' pick.

[Mercury69 3]

You are probably being facetious, but Price wouldn't be a horrible selection. I'd probably put him on the top of the goalie heap for a long term keeper.

Only partly. He's a huge value in terms of the cats Serge is playing with. On the other hand, it's just fun to offer a Hab as a choice for him. Bryzgalov would be a solid choice also, I think.If choosing a forward, I might opt for Ovechkin over Stamkos/Sedin, as I think Ovie is going to rebound hardcore and he had more than 400 shots last year. (Edited out the Hits aspect, as this league doesn't use that stat)

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Next 5 years, I might just take Daniel Sedin then. He'd probably be the 'safest' pick.

really? I think I would go with Stamkos, though Ive given it next to no thought. Sedin is what, 29?

[Zach6668 513]

keeper rules:you can protect any 4 players, for as long as 5yrs.here's the interesting thing with this pool, that Im not sure I like.....it starts with a "rookie" draft first. Players who have played less than 100games in the NHL are eligible. Obv, what that means is, you can take guys like Hall, Skinner whatever right into your farm. However, at 100, you have to call them up.Im hoping there's a rule that the order set in the rookie draft is opposite to that set in the main draft. Wouldnt want Hall+Stamkos on same team.

After the 5 years, they're definitely FAs?It makes it a lot closer for Crosby, then. I guess, for me, it'd be a toss up between Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, or possibly a goalie, depending on your adversity to risk. The reward could be greater with Sid, just with a higher risk factor.

[Dubey 1,035]

really? I think I would go with Stamkos, though Ive given it next to no thought. Sedin is what, 29?

Yeah, I don't know how strongly I feel about Sedin, or if I could make a really good case for it. Though, I doubt Sedin's production will drop off significantly in the next 5 years.

[MapleLeafs 142]

My regular draft pool will probably be on October 6th. Who's flying/driving in for that one?????

[mrdannyg 274]

You can choose anyone you want, but you can only keep him for 5yrs. max.There's no contract of dollars, so its not like cutting Crosby would cost you anything.

Can you change your picks year-over-year, or are you locked in for the # of years you choose initially?Also, I think picking a goalie is pretty crazy with all the ups and downs. Other than Ryan Miller (on an improving Buffalo team? Could be scary) I can't think of a goalie I'd trust with elite stats for 5 years.

[serge 904]

Good discussion guys..Very helpful..Arp on the main page there is a draft order on CBS ..Hoping thats the real order.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Good discussion guys..Very helpful..Arp on the main page there is a draft order on CBS ..Hoping thats the real order.

I see the standings, but I dont see a draft order on my screen. Either way, Im pretty sure the draft order will be determined using the more scientific, in person method of "numbers in a hat".

[serge 904]

I see the standings, but I dont see a draft order on my screen. Either way, Im pretty sure the draft order will be determined using the more scientific, in person method of "numbers in a hat".

Sorry..Its in the rules section..Go to Rules and its on the side.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Sorry..Its in the rules section..Go to Rules and its on the side.

So, I asked Steve about this.He said: " a few guys noticed that. CBS did that. We will be drawing numbersfor both Rookie and Regular draft. Both are snake drafts for theinaugural draft.You should make a prop bet with Serge to see who gets the higher pick, lol"Your prop betting reputation precedes you sir.

[serge 904]

So, I asked Steve about this.He said: " a few guys noticed that. CBS did that. We will be drawing numbersfor both Rookie and Regular draft. Both are snake drafts for theinaugural draft.You should make a prop bet with Serge to see who gets the higher pick, lol"Your prop betting reputation precedes you sir.

I got screwed..:)I was SO looking forward to having Stamkos on my team..Oh well...

[digitalmonkey 929]

There are a few picks that are justifiable...Stamkos, Ovechkin or one of the Sedins would be my choice. I don't think the gap between any of those guys and Crosby is worth the gamble. Whether or not I would consider choosing a goalie with the 1st pick would depend on how many people are in the pool and what goalie I could reasonably expect to get with my 2nd or 3rd pick.

[serge 904]

So first pick was Stamkos..I picked 4th and decided to take a risk and go with Ryan Miller.I think most of the guys dont realize the importance of a TOP goalie..Some dont even consider Miller the best goalie..I was happy with him..I also ended up with Marty Brodeur as my second goalie..The pool has a weird dynamic..Its a keeper pool but since you only keep 4 keepers, it plays a lot different in the later rounds..Some people I think made mistakes buy going over guys like Selanne,Brodeur and Jagr by taking a younger guy at that spot.You can only keep 4 guys so its irrelevant who you take after those 4 for further years..Fun pool..Great concept that is a bit different than my other pools.Arp decided to go with all injured,suspended and concussed players..His team is led by Sid the Kid.

[digitalmonkey 929]

Do we know how many teams are in this pool?

[mrdannyg 274]

So first pick was Stamkos..I picked 4th and decided to take a risk and go with Ryan Miller.I think most of the guys dont realize the importance of a TOP goalie..Some dont even consider Miller the best goalie..I was happy with him..I also ended up with Marty Brodeur as my second goalie..The pool has a weird dynamic..Its a keeper pool but since you only keep 4 keepers, it plays a lot different in the later rounds..Some people I think made mistakes buy going over guys like Selanne,Brodeur and Jagr by taking a younger guy at that spot.You can only keep 4 guys so its irrelevant who you take after those 4 for further years..Fun pool..Great concept that is a bit different than my other pools.Arp decided to go with all injured,suspended and concussed players..His team is led by Sid the Kid.

I think that is a mistake. You can only keep 4 guys year-over-year, right? And the guys change every year? Your young guys are almost useless, unless it is giving a small added bonus to someone like Skinner or Eriksson. Hell, even Skinner would barely crack a top-4 in a goalie-heavy keeper league. Might as well stick with productive older players, rather than trying to find magic in a bottle with some rookie who'd need to go crazy just to be keeper-worthy.