dna4ever 2 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 Can't believe I haven't done this before!Start in Week 1 with one $100 bet, roll that bet plus your profit minus juice into the next bet or week.By just picking 1 single bet correctly every week you can turn your $100 into 2.1 million dollars PROFIT after juice.Yeah, I know this is a dumb thread and the odds of picking 16 games against the spread is pretty much impossible, BUT ......let's just say by some miracle of the betting Gods you were able to get this running .... at what point would you stop?I know for a fact I couldn't make that million dollar Week 16 bet and probably couldn't make any of the bets after Week 8. I guess if you could somehow convince yourself in your head that it was 'just the $100 your started with' and you didn't really have that money to begin with you might be able to convince yourself to keep letting it ride, but I just don't know.Oh and yes I'm bored. Link to post Share on other sites
dapokerbum 0 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 Then the Bears win an unlikely game and you get 0 ... FUCK! Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 this is actually a pretty awesome illustration of the gravitational effect of vig. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 There is no f-ing way I'm betting more than 1 million on a single game. Hell, I would take the 6k and walk. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 I assumed the answer was "build a time machine". Link to post Share on other sites
leftygolfer 7 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 What bookie charges the juice if you win? Link to post Share on other sites
Quacktastic 106 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 Fixed your spreadsheet. If you roll the initial $100 every time you made a mistake with the week 2 total/week 3 bet. You also mis-calculated the juice. Link to post Share on other sites
SAM_Hard8 50 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 What bookie charges the juice if you win?all of them Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 What bookie charges the juice if you win?you have one that doesn't? i need his #Fixed your spreadsheet. If you roll the initial $100 every time you made a mistake with the week 2 total/week 3 bet. You also mis-calculated the juice.holy balls Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 Rakeback? Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Rakeback?See Kurt/rakerobber Link to post Share on other sites
Bearded in Absentia 0 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 this is actually a pretty awesome illustration of the gravitational effect of vig.Please, let's just... not let people... if possible I'd like to keep this...What bookie charges the juice if you win? all of themActually, as far as locals go, the vig is 10% of the "to win" amount, usually charged on a LOSS for mathematical simplicity. When a player phones in a wager, the number he gives is not the amount he's risking, but the amount he will be paid if he wins. Example: Last night, if somebody phoned in a $100 play on the packers, his loss would cost him $110. Everybody who played the Bears was +$100. The vig isn't really 10%, it's 10/110 = 9.091% The wagers is "Bet 110 to win 100." Also, a bookie's expected profit is 1/2 the vigorish amount, or 4.545%. If we did it the other way, it's much messier, and players wager less. For example, let's say the player is RISKING 100. If he loses, he owes 100. If he wins, he wins: $90.909. Repeating decimals are annoying and cumbersome, and we'd much rather have our players wagering the 110 than the 100, which explains why it's standard operating procedure to tag the vigorish onto a loss. Bitches. I use the "base amount system," in which all wagers with juice are "TO WIN" and all wagers that are +101 or better are "RISKING." So if somebody bets a side that's +110, he's risking 100 to win 110. That way: no fractions/larger bets.In conclusion: Get money. Fuck bitches. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 In conclusion: Get money. Fuck bitches. Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 alright, actually doing this kinda ... started Week 3, bet $100, won $90Not rolling initial bet so entire martingale'ish type system is a free rollWill update bets and status each week to see how far we can make itRules are Straight Bets or two team 6 point teaser bets onlyWeek 4 Bet Placed Today Link to post Share on other sites
SAM_Hard8 50 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 wana sell part of it? Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 wana sell part of it?Already did or I would ride with ya ...This was mine and Josh's lil fantasy dream child project, we are in it 50/50 with our initial $50 each bet that we just recouped this week and are now freerolling. Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 alright, actually doing this kinda ... started Week 3, bet $100, won $90Not rolling initial bet so entire martingale'ish type system is a free rollWill update bets and status each week to see how far we can make itRules are Straight Bets or two team 6 point teaser bets onlyWeek 4 Bet Placed Todayholy cow, that red is blinding Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 holy cow, that red is blindingsorry, hopefully will be all green soon sir Link to post Share on other sites
Bearded in Absentia 0 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 alright, actually doing this kinda ... started Week 3, bet $100, won $90Not rolling initial bet so entire martingale'ish type system is a free rollWill update bets and status each week to see how far we can make itRules are Straight Bets or two team 6 point teaser bets onlyWeek 4 Bet Placed TodayFor fun, I will be contributing my insight. 1) Teasers are absolutely terrible -- even worse than straight sides -- unless you follow a simple rule If you're teasing two NFL sides, you can get close to break-even, and maybe even have a longterm edge, if you only tease sides that cross both 7 and 3. You should be teasing 8.5, 8, and 7.5 point favorites down to 2.5, 2, and 1.5, or 1.5, 2, and 2.5 point dogs up to 7.5, 8, and 8.5. Otherwise you're just wasting points. 2) You've already got a bad price on the Colts. They're down to 8 across the board, which is a huge move for you if you insist on playing teasers. I'm pretty sure they'll get as low as 7.5 today, and might even drop to 7 before sharp money buys back. 3) Unfortunately, you have a bad price on the Falcons, too. Where are you playing? With a local? If so, give me his lines and I'll... Fuck. I just figured out what that motherfucker was doing. Sorry, gotta run. It was so easy! How did I miss it? Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 Hard part will be started in week 11, putting that amount down for one game.If you get through this, and win all 16, you will be ruined for betting $100 on a game ever again.Welcome to degenerate gambling.It all started as an experiment... Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 For fun, I will be contributing my insight. 1) Teasers are absolutely terrible -- even worse than straight sides -- unless you follow a simple rule If you're teasing two NFL sides, you can get close to break-even, and maybe even have a longterm edge, if you only tease sides that cross both 7 and 3. You should be teasing 8.5, 8, and 7.5 point favorites down to 2.5, 2, and 1.5, or 1.5, 2, and 2.5 point dogs up to 7.5, 8, and 8.5. Otherwise you're just wasting points. 2) You've already got a bad price on the Colts. They're down to 8 across the board, which is a huge move for you if you insist on playing teasers. I'm pretty sure they'll get as low as 7.5 today, and might even drop to 7 before sharp money buys back. 3) Unfortunately, you have a bad price on the Falcons, too. Where are you playing? With a local? If so, give me his lines and I'll... Fuck. I just figured out what that motherfucker was doing. Sorry, gotta run. It was so easy! How did I miss it?Thanks for your input on the teaser info, I know I got a bad price on colts, it opened at 8, moved to 7.5 this morning and already moved to 9 on BetUS within 15 minutes of placing my bet. Most books still have this at 7.5 but even a few Vegas Casinos already have it at 9 as well. JaX Def is allowing the #1 most points to QBs and #2 most points to WRs through Week 3. If this line moves, it will not move down, I feel pretty sure about that. I absolutely LOVE the Colts in the game, even if it is in Jax and they are division rivals. Colts win this game big imo. I feel the Atlanta line is good enough, most places its -7 or -6.5.Hard part will be started in week 11, putting that amount down for one game.If you get through this, and win all 16, you will be ruined for betting $100 on a game ever again.Welcome to degenerate gambling.It all started as an experiment...Well the whole thing is a silly pipe dream. It would be a good problem to have if I actually had to try and make the decision if I was going to make one of those bets or not, will cross that road should it ever come.This is just mean to be a fun little free roll project. Most people that really know me know I suck at betting so this probably wont go past week 4 or 5 lol Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 Well the whole thing is a silly pipe dream. It would be a good problem to have if I actually had to try and make the decision if I was going to make one of those bets or not, will cross that road should it ever come.This is just mean to be a fun little free roll project. Most people that really know me know I suck at betting so this probably wont go past week 4 or 5 lolWell I hope you go crazy deep and win tons.Then next year you can start a new thread where you start with $1,000 and win $20,000,000 Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 Well I hope you go crazy deep and win tons.Then next year you can start a new thread where you start with $1,000 and win $20,000,000or, he could be from tennessee and spend all of his millions on jesus paraphernalia Link to post Share on other sites
dna4ever 2 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 Well I hope you go crazy deep and win tons.Then next year you can start a new thread where you start with $1,000 and win $20,000,000this means I would probably have to become a Republican, not sure if it's worth itor, he could be from tennessee and spend all of his millions on jesus paraphernaliaMeh, I've poked holes in the Bible Belt before Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted September 29, 2010 Share Posted September 29, 2010 Meh, I've poked holes in the Bible Belt beforechicken sex! Link to post Share on other sites
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