overpairs vs underpairs, etc. online

[krup24 0]

I have recently been doing an online study to determine the amount of underpairs that beat the number of overpairs heads up (or 3 way) all in before the flop. I have been tracking this for nearly a month. Included in this study are also AK vs AQ, AK vs KJ, etc.The results are disgusting. I've tracked 150 hands with these situations and here are the results.Total number of hands = 150Overpair victories = 65 or 43.3%Underpair victories = 85 or 56.7%I saw it all.The most common "suckout" was 4 to the flush on the board and the overpair not having the suit.Second most popular was gutshot runner runner straights.AA vs KK or QQ heads up preflop = 31 timesAA victories = 13 times or 41.9%What do you think?

[dna4ever 2]

I have recently been doing an online study to determine the amount of underpairs that beat the number of overpairs heads up (or 3 way) all in before the flop. I have been tracking this for nearly a month. Included in this study are also AK vs AQ, AK vs KJ, etc.The results are disgusting. I've tracked 150 hands with these situations and here are the results.Total number of hands = 150Overpair victories = 65 or 43.3%Underpair victories = 85 or 56.7%I saw it all.The most common "suckout" was 4 to the flush on the board and the overpair not having the suit.Second most popular was gutshot runner runner straights.AA vs KK or QQ heads up preflop = 31 timesAA victories = 13 times or 41.9%What do you think?

No offense man, but I stopped reading when you said your study of card probability included 150 hands

[dms26 3]

I have recently been doing an online study to determine the amount of underpairs that beat the number of overpairs heads up (or 3 way) all in before the flop. I have been tracking this for nearly a month. Included in this study are also AK vs AQ, AK vs KJ, etc.The results are disgusting. I've tracked 150 hands with these situations and here are the results.Total number of hands = 150Overpair victories = 65 or 43.3%Underpair victories = 85 or 56.7%I saw it all.The most common "suckout" was 4 to the flush on the board and the overpair not having the suit.Second most popular was gutshot runner runner straights.AA vs KK or QQ heads up preflop = 31 timesAA victories = 13 times or 41.9%What do you think?

Small sample size, a little bad luck, and people that shouldn't be all in before the flop.

[dna4ever 2]

P.S. - this math has already been done, the percentages are already set and will not ever change. Check out cardplayer.com ;s calculators and they will do all this for you and save you some time. Of course there will be some variance, but in the long run it all works out; the numbers are the numbers as we say in my business.

[krup24 0]

No offense man, but I stopped reading when you said your study of card probability included 150 hands

Not 150 hands but 150 situations. Probably over 2000 hands.

[Woodsman 0]

So is it 2000 hands per situation? Did you use poker tracker to track then run a query against the database? Are these games you were watching or involved with? Questions Questions Questions. I doubt the validity of the results.

[dna4ever 2]

So is it 2000 hands per situation? Did you use poker tracker to track then run a query against the database? Are these games you were watching or involved with? Questions Questions Questions. I doubt the validity of the results.

I mean seriously, does it matter.Total number of hands = 150 Overpair victories = 65 or 43.3% Underpair victories = 85 or 56.7% Everyone knows mathematically an underpair is a 4.2:1 dog to an overpair. This small sampling of data will not change that nor should it change your betting. Always has been always will be the same. I think I didnt get enough sleep or something last night because I know this is coming off bitter and its not meant to be. I'm just curious why anyone would study card probability when all the answers have already been mathematically defined.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

 No offense man, but I stopped reading when you said your study of card probability included 150 hands

Why? If in the next 150 KK vs AA situations on Party, the KK won *every* time, would that not indicate something was very possibly wrong? Extremely bizarre happenings in small sample sizes can give just as much evidence as less bizarre happenings for large sample sizes. The probability of an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times out of 150 (based on your 4.2-1 estimate of the odds) is 3.86437e-024, or .00000000000000000000000386.) I pretty much guarantee this didn't happen when the OP was "keeping track". So, I stopped reading when he said an underpair beat an overpair 85 out of 150 times :-)

[TheSkins 0]

I think he is implying that the online poker software perhaps doesn't conform to the established laws of probability

[dms26 3]

I think he is implying that the online poker software perhaps doesn't conform to the established laws of probability

Becuase we've NEVER had that discussion before. :roll:

[krup24 0]

The probability of an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times out of 150 (based on your 4.2-1 estimate of the odds) is 3.86437e-024, or .00000000000000000000000386.)   I pretty much guarantee this didn't happen when the OP was "keeping track".  So, I stopped reading when he said an underpair beat an overpair 85 out of 150 times  :-)

Um no. The actual probability is 0.159. Where did take you probability class. I'll make sure not to attend.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

The probability of an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times out of 150 (based on your 4.2-1 estimate of the odds) is 3.86437e-024, or .00000000000000000000000386.)   I pretty much guarantee this didn't happen when the OP was "keeping track".  So, I stopped reading when he said an underpair beat an overpair 85 out of 150 times  :-)

Um no. The actual probability is 0.159. Where did take you probability class. I'll make sure not to attend.

If you think that .159 is anywhere near the chances that an underpair beats an overpair at least 85 times out of 150, you have no feel whatsoever about probability. Mocking me when you are clearly wrong says something about you.

[mrdannyg 274]

i think that in fact was his argument, about poker software....not conforming...laws of probability.to the OP - you are probably only looking at hands that went to showdown. therefore unless the person with the underpair chose to call to the river with the worse hand, you will only be able to see situations where the underpair caught. if the underpair didn't catch, the person likely folded, you did not see their hand, and it was not taken into account. this might account for the huge discrepancy.and even though it was 2000 hands, it was 150 situations, so the sample size is 150.cheers,daniel

[krup24 0]

If you think that .159 is anywhere near the chances that an underpair beats an overpair at least 85 times out of 150, you have no feel whatsoever about probability.  Mocking me when you are clearly wrong says something about you.

Um again NO. How do you have a feel for probability? Its freaking math man. Maybe you should go to college and learn something about mathematics. Math is the one science with an absolute answer. And the probability is 0.159 %. Fact.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

If you think that .159 is anywhere near the chances that an underpair beats an overpair at least 85 times out of 150, you have no feel whatsoever about probability.  Mocking me when you are clearly wrong says something about you.

Um again NO. How do you have a feel for probability? Its freaking math man. Maybe you should go to college and learn something about mathematics. Math is the one science with an absolute answer. And the probability is 0.159 %. Fact.

First, you say the probability is .159, now you're saying it's .159%. Well, which is it? It's not surprising that someone with no feel for probability doesn't think it's possible to have a feel for probability.You think that in 150 runs, all in preflop, with 2 pocket pairs, the chances that the underpair beats the overpair at least 85 times is .159? If this is the correct probability, I'll send you $100 wherever you want. So, why don't you enlighten us all by showing your math, and then I can ship you the $100 if you're correct. I'm waiting, cause this oughta be good. You continue to try to mock me, when you're the one that doesn't have a clue. Fact.

[krup24 0]

First, you say the probability is .159, now you're saying it's .159%.  Well, which is it?  It's not surprising that someone with no feel for probability doesn't think it's possible to have a feel for probability.You think that in 150 runs, all in preflop, with 2 pocket pairs, the chances that the underpair beats the overpair at least 85 times is .159?  If this is the correct probability, I'll send you $100 wherever you want.  So, why don't you enlighten us all by showing your math, and then I can ship you the $100 if you're correct.  I'm waiting, cause this oughta be good.  You continue to try to mock me, when you're the one that doesn't have a clue.  Fact.

0.159%4.2 : 1 = .238 = 23.8%.238 / 150 (sample size) = 0.00159 * 100 = 0.159 %Your the supergenious here so how did u come up with 3.2E-29 or something like that.Go to college. Understand numbers. Probability is real not made up.

[pockets 0]

www.tinfoilhatsforcheap.com

[KidKanuck 0]

I think he is implying that the online poker software perhaps doesn't conform to the established laws of probability

Becuase we've NEVER had that discussion before. :roll:

did we?...must have missed that thread... :-)

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

First, you say the probability is .159, now you're saying it's .159%.  Well, which is it?  It's not surprising that someone with no feel for probability doesn't think it's possible to have a feel for probability.You think that in 150 runs, all in preflop, with 2 pocket pairs, the chances that the underpair beats the overpair at least 85 times is .159?  If this is the correct probability, I'll send you $100 wherever you want.  So, why don't you enlighten us all by showing your math, and then I can ship you the $100 if you're correct.  I'm waiting, cause this oughta be good.  You continue to try to mock me, when you're the one that doesn't have a clue.  Fact.

0.159%4.2 : 1 = .238 = 23.8%.238 / 150 (sample size) = 0.00159 * 100 = 0.159 %Your the supergenious here so how did u come up with 3.2E-29 or something like that.Go to college. Understand numbers. Probability is real not made up.

I never said anything about being a supergenius, or genius for that matter. I tried to get into Dupont Community College in Reading, PA, but I just didn't have the grades. I'm pretty amazed that you could be so arrogant about all of this, and be so incredibly far off on how to actually calculate the probability. I mean, in your "probability calculation", you didn't even include 85! You're trying to work out the probability of an event, and yet you don't even include that event in the calculations. This one is so far off the mark, you must just be messing around, trying to have some fun being silly. I guess I fell for it and believed you were serious. Good job.

[ChuckSty 0]

this thread is totally ludicrous speed

[krup24 0]

I never said anything about being a supergenius, or genius for that matter.  I tried to get into Dupont Community College in Reading, PA, but I just didn't have the grades.  I'm pretty amazed that you could be so arrogant about all of this, and be so incredibly far off on how to actually calculate the probability.  I mean, in your "probability calculation", you didn't even include 85!  You're trying to work out the probability of an event, and yet you don't even include that event in the calculations.  This one is so far off the mark, you must just be messing around, trying to have some fun being silly.  I guess I fell for it and believed you were serious.  Good job.

That is the probability of 150 underpairs beating 150 overpairsThe probability that 85 would win out of 150 is slightly higher at 0.636%

[dms26 3]

I never said anything about being a supergenius, or genius for that matter.  I tried to get into Dupont Community College in Reading, PA, but I just didn't have the grades.  I'm pretty amazed that you could be so arrogant about all of this, and be so incredibly far off on how to actually calculate the probability.  I mean, in your "probability calculation", you didn't even include 85!  You're trying to work out the probability of an event, and yet you don't even include that event in the calculations.  This one is so far off the mark, you must just be messing around, trying to have some fun being silly.  I guess I fell for it and believed you were serious.  Good job.

That is the probability of 150 underpairs beating 150 overpairsThe probability that 85 would win out of 150 is slightly higher at 0.636%

[fryer98 30]

That is the probability of 150 underpairs beating 150 overpairsThe probability that 85 would win out of 150 is slightly higher at 0.636%

[goldie79 0]

My calculator comes up with:ALL-IN??????

[goldie79 0]

0.159%4.2 : 1 = .238 = 23.8%.238 / 150 (sample size) = 0.00159 * 100 = 0.159 %

I'm no supergenius and I know nothing about probabilities.So underpairs would win against overpairs 23.8% of the time?In 150 hands, unders would win 35.7 times?(150 x .238)This could be wrong.