Play On River

[antistuff 0]

villain is 12/5/0.6 over 40 hands. Full Tilt PokerLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $2/$49 playersConverterPre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with 8 8 Hero raises, 6 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.Flop: T 2 8 (7.5SB, 3 players)SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls.Turn: T (7.25BB, 2 players)SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.River: Q (11.25BB, 2 players)SB bets, Hero raisesedit: sorry zach, wrong forum by accident

[Dirtydutch 8]

He's being retarded more often than he has QQ, in my opinion.

[Viper_13 0]

it's a small sample, but his 3 bet range from the sb seems like it would be very small, coupled with the flop 3 bet. i think we're looking at either QQ or AA/KK changing his thinking about your hand from the turn to the river. what if he 3 bets the river?

[antistuff 0]

it's a small sample, but his 3 bet range from the sb seems like it would be very small, coupled with the flop 3 bet. i think we're looking at either QQ or AA/KK changing his thinking about your hand from the turn to the river. what if he 3 bets the river?

im never folding, which is a part of the problem. qq is not the only hand he could have here that beats me, he could also have tt, and while its only one more combo it is consistent with the play of a weak tight player here.

[Zach6668 513]

Ya, just raise/call. Meh, I see what we're trying to get into, but I really think just calling the river here with the underfull is missing value. His stats suck for us, but it's such a small sample.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Also, I see the Donk out line with AA and KK all the time, where people will B/C, B/C, B/C all the way. If he three bets, you puke and call, but it's way too likely he has a hand you can beat here not to raise.

[TheCinciKid 0]

I cap the flop. Other than that, I think I play it the same.I think his range is like QQ-AA, so we're good a large percentage of the time here. If he raises the river, I call, but I don't love it. For what it's worth, based on his stats, I kinda doubt he's got TT here. 40 hands is a fairly significant sample based on what you're usually able to get on most villains and I just don't see this guy re-raising out of the SB with TT.

[antistuff 0]

I cap the flop. Other than that, I think I play it the same.I think his range is like QQ-AA, so we're good a large percentage of the time here. If he raises the river, I call, but I don't love it. For what it's worth, based on his stats, I kinda doubt he's got TT here. 40 hands is a fairly significant sample based on what you're usually able to get on most villains and I just don't see this guy re-raising out of the SB with TT.

if you give him that range, then if i cap the flop how often do you think he will lead the turn?if i just call his 3 bet he will lead the turn 100% of the time and i can raise there. i think i get an extra small bet more often than not waiting until the turn to raise. i think in this situation going for the extra half bet is more profitable. i don't remember too much about him, but i am assuming that if i thought he would lead into my cap with an over pair i would have capped at the time.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

if you give him that range, then if i cap the flop how often do you think he will lead the turn?if i just call his 3 bet he will lead the turn 100% of the time and i can raise there. i think i get an extra small bet more often than not waiting until the turn to raise. i think in this situation going for the extra half bet is more profitable. i don't remember too much about him, but i am assuming that if i thought he would lead into my cap with an over pair i would have capped at the time.

I think it's close either way. Generally I like to cap the flop when I flop big hands, 'cause I cap the flop with draws and other things. If you have a wide flop capping range, then they will start betting into you on the turn too. It may not be the case with this guy, however. You have to think he's super strong though, and there's a good chance he'll bet into you, people who play that tight tend to overplay the hands they do play, and the board really isn't scare for him if he has AA.. I tend toward flop capping, but I do see the case for calling the flop, raising the turn.

[Absolution 0]

I just call this river. This is almost always QQ from a guy with these stats. You will end up calling a 3-bet as well so you have to consider that when you're raising. Also, cap the flop. He might of ended up checking that turn card.

[Zach6668 513]

I don't think we need to cap the flop. I LOVE calling a 3b in position to raise the turn. I think that's the better play here. Just because he may check if one of 3 remaining (at most) tens falls off, is not a good enough reason. Of course there are other reasons to cap, but as is, that alone won't persuade me to deviate from what I think is the optimal line.

[Mattnxtc 0]

Can we really make the assumption about his range over 40 hands? I run around 30/20, but can guarantee that I have some 40 hand stretches where I run at like 18/10 or so due to a bad string of hands or other situations. This guy could easily be a 20/10 to 25/15 type guy. I dont mind how the hand was played. You can make a case for capping the flop and just calling the 3bet. With the AF so far from this villain I would just call the 3bet since his play right now is not consistent with what we currently know about him. I dont think you can do much else then raise/call on the river.

[Fade2241 0]

The sample size isn't enough to determine anything. I cap all streets liberally, including the river. If he has QQ/Q10 so be it. I'm looking to get the most value out of a hand that doesn't come along very often. You'd be shocked to see how many times you get AA/22/A10 etc to cap with you on this board.

[RISEorFall 0]

40 hands means almost nothing stat wiseid cap the river if he 3bets, but then again i'm raising more than just boats on the turn/river, too. but you've represented atleast AA, if not a T, so if he's any kind of thinking player he won't bet or raise with anything less than AAQQ and TT you lose (unless you want to add QT to his range)AQ, AA, KK, ATs you beatthat's 4 combos you lose, a lot more you're ahead ofbut im rusty

[antistuff 0]

while 40 hands is nothing stats wise, i think that more often than not after 40 hands you should have a general feel for somebody and be starting to formulate a game plan against them. enough of a feel to not raise this river? i dunno.... however, i said to myself he has queens here 100% of the time but the "correct" play is to raise. that thought and that action don't add up. i guess its my fault because i gave stats instead of describing the guy and asking if i should rely on my read here or not.

[RISEorFall 0]

while 40 hands is nothing stats wise, i think that more often than not after 40 hands you should have a general feel for somebody and be starting to formulate a game plan against them. enough of a feel to not raise this river? i dunno.... however, i said to myself he has queens here 100% of the time but the "correct" play is to raise. that thought and that action don't add up. i guess its my fault because i gave stats instead of describing the guy and asking if i should rely on my read here or not.

i still dont think 40 hands is even enough to get a decent feel for a guy, unless he's doing something really weird. i wouldnt blame you for not raising the river, but youll see weirdly played AQ or something a lot more than QQ. unless he's a donk monkey, wouldnt QQ c/r the river after you've shown so much aggression?

[shpaget 0]

I don't have a problem with the sample size, or more specifically, your reliance on it.I don't play online (so I don't have a clue what those stats mean), but when I'm playing at the casino, if I don't have a good feel for a player after four revolutions, then I'm too tired or not paying attention, and should be going home.When you go into the river heads up, is there a cap?I think you can remove TT from his range...There's nfw he only calls the turn.Rise - if I have QQ, I bet the river...if you've been raising me all along I have no reason to believe you won't raise me again.

[tuckermitchell 1]

40 hands means almost nothing stat wiseid cap the river if he 3bets, but then again i'm raising more than just boats on the turn/river, too. but you've represented atleast AA, if not a T, so if he's any kind of thinking player he won't bet or raise with anything less than AAQQ and TT you lose (unless you want to add QT to his range)AQ, AA, KK, ATs you beatthat's 4 combos you lose, a lot more you're ahead ofbut im rusty

I think it's safe to say with his stats that AT and QT are definitely not in his range, along with probably AQ.