Another Squishy Bubble Spot

[jmbreslin 0]

Don't have the HH with me so I'm going by memory here.Bubble of a micro stakes STT. Stack sizes are roughly:Button: ~1300Villain: ~4500SB: ~3200Me (BB): ~3500Blinds are 50/100. Villain opens in UTG with a raise to 300. Folded to me holding [Qc, Qd].At that point I decide to flat call rather than reraise to keep the pot small because I wanted to avoid getting tangled up with the bigstack on the bubble. Villain was a bit on the loose side but not overly aggressive.Flop: [4h, Th, Jh]. Pot is 650.I decide to check, counting on villain to fire a standardish CB here and planning to check-raise. I figured if he led for say 300-400 I could check-raise and take it down right there. Probably the first glaring error with the 3 hearts on the board and none in my hand but I thought this would have been the best play OOP.Villain leads for 1000! Hero???

[DocHoliday 0]

Don't have the HH with me so I'm going by memory here.Bubble of a micro stakes STT. Stack sizes are roughly:Button: ~1300Villain: ~4500SB: ~3200Me (BB): ~3500Blinds are 50/100. Villain opens in UTG with a raise to 300. Folded to me holding [Qc, Qd].At that point I decide to flat call rather than reraise to keep the pot small because I wanted to avoid getting tangled up with the bigstack on the bubble. Villain was a bit on the loose side but not overly aggressive.Flop: [4h, Th, Jh]. Pot is 650.I decide to check, counting on villain to fire a standardish CB here and planning to check-raise. I figured if he led for say 300-400 I could check-raise and take it down right there. Probably the first glaring error with the 3 hearts on the board and none in my hand but I thought this would have been the best play OOP.Villain leads for 1000! Hero???

Well, there are several options here. It is not the best looking board and villain could have AhKh or QhAh. However it is less likely with that kind of overbet. I believe he has something like KxAh or AxKh, or even JxAh in which case he is not in that bad shape either, it is roughly the same odds. I do not think coming over the top will push villain of these kinds of hands, especially on micro stakes. You might call and reevaluate on the turn, but if the fourth hearth comes, I don't think we can call any more bets. It's a tough spot, and depends a lot on the villain, but I think at best this is coinflip situation, and we might want to avoid this on the bubble.

[outsider13 0]

I think the decision not to reraise preflop wasn't the greatest tbh. I might even be inclined to just shove back and hope to get a call there. Make him pay seeing as you have a VERY strong hand.That looks like a tough spot though as played. An overpair to a flush board facing an overbet. He's definitely strong, probably a combo draw of sorts, possibly an underpair with a heart. I think this is a puke fold really, especially considering you didn't want to gambool with the chip leader preflop, calling here would be worse.

[mk 11]

seriously. please just 3-bet pre and get it in.

[REvans84 0]

I would push pre.You have a bit of leverage but not much other than an all-in imo.

[jmbreslin 0]

I did consider reraising PF but never thought about a shove. I have 35BB and I'm facing a standard raise in front. Shoving 3500 over a raise to 300 seems crazy. The only hand likely to call is going to be AA/KK and maybe AK. Unless my shove looks like a small-medium pair steal move and gets me a call from hands like 88-JJ...On the flop I figured villain had one of two hands with that bet: (1) a made hand trying to protect against a heart in my hand, such as a set, 2P, or even a non-heart AJ/KJ; or (2) a semi-bluff hand, most likely with the Ah. So how's my equity against this range?I also thought about calling and re-evaluating on the turn but didn't like the idea of calling off almost 1/3 of my remaining stack when I'm not likely to be in any better shape on the turn. So I figured this was a push or fold situation. Folding my QQ here seemed too weak but pushing is exactly what I wanted to avoid by not reraising PF.

[copernicus 0]

Whats villains range: AA,KK? possible 12 hands 20% to winJJ,TT possible 12 hands 20% to winlower pairs, unlikelyAK, AQ, KQ possible, 45 75% to win, 3 0% to winAJ, AT 22 hands 80% to win ignoring 2 hands 50% to winThat has to be almost all of them. 96 hands, round to 100, 12%*40% + 45%*75% + 22%* 80% + 2%*50% = about 55% favorite. The turn isnt going to make you feel a whole lot more comfortable, so its shove or fold, and with all that money in the pot and some FE, Id shove it.

[outsider13 0]

I did consider reraising PF but never thought about a shove. I have 35BB and I'm facing a standard raise in front. Shoving 3500 over a raise to 300 seems crazy. The only hand likely to call is going to be AA/KK and maybe AK. Unless my shove looks like a small-medium pair steal move and gets me a call from hands like 88-JJ...

I just think it's an awkward stack for a standard 3bet. If you go back with an 850 or 900 3 bet, it leaves you with roughly a pot size bet left should he just flat it. I'd rather put the pressure on early seeing as you crush a lot of hands here, and maybe induce a 99-JJ call. I think shoving preflop is less of a gamble than flatting and playing post flop, seeing as you didn't want to tangle with the big-stack. Just my opinion though.

[Eight_Tabler 0]

It's ok and correct to play a little safe on the bubble, but it's not ok at all to play scared. You absolutely have to reraise preflop here with QQ. I'd probably reraise to 1500 or so and then push any flop.As played it's a lot more tricky... You have an overpair to the board and I don't think you can fold, but at the same time there's a good chance he's doing this with some sort of hand that's around 50/50 with you on the flop. This really looks like AhXx, or maybe AhJx, or KhQx, KhJx, etc etc. All these hands were behind pf and probably would've folded to a rr, but now it's race time.I actually like the somewhat safe-line here since it's the bubble... Just call the 1000 bet and shove the turn if it isn't a heart or an ace. If he insta-calls with J10, or a 9 comes and he calls with KQ, then chalk up the loss to a very bad preflop decision. He might also insta-call with KK, AA, JJ, 1010, but then it's just a hardcore cooler 4-handed and the money should have gone in preflop anyways.

[Aces Rule 0]

Certainly looks like villian is trying to shut this down fast on the flop. No way he's got a made flush with that overbet which indicates to me that he's probably not on a flush draw either (that semi-bluff would be more like half the pot) so you've probably got the best hand on the flop. 2 pair or a set I don't think would overbet the pot - more likly 2/3- full pot - although there are plenty of players who bet contrary to what I would expect. But the flush board would also be scary to those hands and they would/should be cautious of a ck-r.His hand range with only 4 at the table would be a lot looser than most have given him credit for - any Ax or 2 broadway cards from a chip leader is pretty much a standard raise pf - as would any suited connectors or sm-mid pp he's interested in playing and would be raising to disguise his true strengh. Any savvy chip leader would be looking to steal like a thief on the bubble if the rest of the table is going to let him so that would broaden his range even more and as far as he's concerned he's up against the BB which would be a random hand since hero didn't show any strengh pf. The overbet looks very much like a steal vs a weak hand in the blinds waiting for the bubble to break.Even if he has a heart he's going to miss the draw 2 times to 1 and with the flush draw plus 2 over cards the QQ is still 1.4:1 favorite - about 60%.Since the overbet pretty much pot commits hero, it's fold or push imo. I think I push!

[copernicus 0]

.His hand range with only 4 at the table would be a lot looser than most have given him credit for - any Ax or 2 broadway cards from a chip leader is pretty much a standard raise pf - as would any suited connectors or sm-mid pp he's interested in playing and would be raising to disguise his true strengh.

In a SnG where your implied odds are limited because people are playing tight, especially on the bubble, I think raising with suited connectors (except Broadways) and Ax below T is horribly loose UTG. If you dont take the hand down PF its going to be very expensive and difficult to play anything that hits a villain.

[Aces Rule 0]

In a SnG where your implied odds are limited because people are playing tight, especially on the bubble, I think raising with suited connectors (except Broadways) and Ax below T is horribly loose UTG. If you dont take the hand down PF its going to be very expensive and difficult to play anything that hits a villain.

Re: the bold above - I sure hope so!! As chip leader (or one of them) I'm in steal and stack building mode - and if the table is playing obviously tight I don't even need to be a chip leader at all! I spend most of the tourney playing solid and tight and it's time to shift gears to loose and aggressive while the others are tightening down trying to squeeze into the money. I don't play the bubble by trying to get ITM - I'm playing for a big stack that gives me a shot at the top money and if I bust then so be it - but it doesn't happen that often and when it does it's usually with a good hand!! 1st I don't risk my whole stack on a steal so any play back is min-damage. 2nd stealing is easier b/c the others are waiting for someone else to bust so are only playing good hands - easier hand reading and exit strategy! 3rd when I do get a good starting hand or hit a good flop, I'm sending out the message I'm playing to win so watch out for your stack. Finding a player whose playing scared is gifted chips and play seldom goes beyond the flop. If first in and in LP (UTG 4 handed is LP imo since you only have the Btn between you and the blinds) I don't even have to look at my cards if the table is playing tight on the bubble. Horribly loose? - YOU BET! But that's what stealing on the bubble is all about! P.S. - this isn't a short stacked strategy - if you don't have a large or competitive stack capable of taking a hit or two you probably shouldn't be stealing with anything less than all-in - or at all!

[copernicus 0]

Re: the bold above - I sure hope so!! As chip leader (or one of them) I'm in steal and stack building mode - and if the table is playing obviously tight I don't even need to be a chip leader at all! I spend most of the tourney playing solid and tight and it's time to shift gears to loose and aggressive while the others are tightening down trying to squeeze into the money. I don't play the bubble by trying to get ITM - I'm playing for a big stack that gives me a shot at the top money and if I bust then so be it - but it doesn't happen that often and when it does it's usually with a good hand!! 1st I don't risk my whole stack on a steal so any play back is min-damage. 2nd stealing is easier b/c the others are waiting for someone else to bust so are only playing good hands - easier hand reading and exit strategy! 3rd when I do get a good starting hand or hit a good flop, I'm sending out the message I'm playing to win so watch out for your stack. Finding a player whose playing scared is gifted chips and play seldom goes beyond the flop. If first in and in LP (UTG 4 handed is LP imo since you only have the Btn between you and the blinds) I don't even have to look at my cards if the table is playing tight on the bubble. Horribly loose? - YOU BET! But that's what stealing on the bubble is all about! P.S. - this isn't a short stacked strategy - if you don't have a large or competitive stack capable of taking a hit or two you probably shouldn't be stealing with anything less than all-in - or at all!

Its also not a winning strategy in SnGs.

[cdipierr 0]

Bottom line is if you're just calling preflop, then you're folding to this bet. If you're going to call or push this flop after his 1k bet, you should have gotten your money in preflop. I think I *would* have gotten it in preflop, but as played, this is a fold.But I tend to agree with the people who think jm is playing a little too tight on the bubble. I get that in SnGs the goal is to cash at all costs, but I think he's doing himself a disservice by not playing his premium hands harder. It's not like advocating raising ATC on the button, you have QQ, not 86s.

[Aces Rule 0]

Its also not a winning strategy in SnGs.

If there were "A" winning strategy in SnGs it would be childs play to figure out a counter -strategy and defeat it! Ahh but now there wold be at least 2 strategies - Stealing is simply one tactic within a strategy used under certain circumstances given the correct conditions. An advanced play if you will but also a critical one in tournament play b/c simply playing the cards isn't sufficent to winning or getting ITM. Just as much as Luck or Gamble are part of a winning strategy (suckouts and playing the odds) so is playing the player with a steal attempt!

[copernicus 0]

If there were "A" winning strategy in SnGs it would be childs play to figure out a counter -strategy and defeat it! Ahh but now there wold be at least 2 strategies - Stealing is simply one tactic within a strategy used under certain circumstances given the correct conditions. An advanced play if you will but also a critical one in tournament play b/c simply playing the cards isn't sufficent to winning or getting ITM. Just as much as Luck or Gamble are part of a winning strategy (suckouts and playing the odds) so is playing the player with a steal attempt!

This sounds like Canadian thinking to me .SnGs come as close to having a strategy that is both optimal and non-exploitable. Finding a counter strategy, far from being childs play, can only be found in exploiting a particular players weakness in execution, not in the strategy itself. In high buyin SnGs winning is an accumulation of plays where the difference between optimal and sub-optimal is tenths of a percent of the prize pool. You will drown those small edges by playing hands OOP without implied odds.Nice new avatar btw!

[jmbreslin 0]

Bottom line is if you're just calling preflop, then you're folding to this bet. If you're going to call or push this flop after his 1k bet, you should have gotten your money in preflop. I think I *would* have gotten it in preflop, but as played, this is a fold.But I tend to agree with the people who think jm is playing a little too tight on the bubble. I get that in SnGs the goal is to cash at all costs, but I think he's doing himself a disservice by not playing his premium hands harder. It's not like advocating raising ATC on the button, you have QQ, not 86s.

It is possible that I am playing a bit too cautiously on the bubble. I'm a lot more aggro on the bubble with a shortstack but I absolutely hate bubbling when I have a good stack and should easily cash. I get very upset with myself when I get overinvolved in a hand on the bubble and cripple myself or knock myself out when there is a shortie sitting there on life support.

[Aces Rule 0]

This sounds like Canadian thinking to me .SnGs come as close to having a strategy that is both optimal and non-exploitable. Finding a counter strategy, far from being childs play, can only be found in exploiting a particular players weakness in execution, not in the strategy itself. In high buyin SnGs winning is an accumulation of plays where the difference between optimal and sub-optimal is tenths of a percent of the prize pool. You will drown those small edges by playing hands OOP without implied odds.Nice new avatar btw!

Our air is cleaner up here so allows for clearer thinking - re: avatar - thanks. Did you notice what she has in her hands? She's got a poker player's dream - the cold hard NUTS!

[potatoman 0]

Bottom line is if you're just calling preflop, then you're folding to this bet. If you're going to call or push this flop after his 1k bet, you should have gotten your money in preflop. I think I *would* have gotten it in preflop, but as played, this is a fold.But I tend to agree with the people who think jm is playing a little too tight on the bubble. I get that in SnGs the goal is to cash at all costs, but I think he's doing himself a disservice by not playing his premium hands harder. It's not like advocating raising ATC on the button, you have QQ, not 86s.

I think I agree with this post the most.If this was a super tight player, and against a weak field, you could even argue folding preflop. Sickening, but if you're up against AA-JJ and AK, there would be very little reason to get involved.However, I think OP said villain was loose, and this was a micro sng. All the more reason to reraise preflop.If you don't like getting your money in with QQ four-handed, call, but on this flop, to that bet, you're folding. Which is also fine. What I wouldn't like is flatting preflop (I wanted to play a small pot) and calling post flop (so much for that plan).

[Merby 3]

If you're playing timid, just shove preflop.If you are more inclined to increase variance in an effort to accumulate chips, then reraise to around 900-1100 preflop and shove any flop. Someone else suggested a preflop 3-bet to 1500-ish, but I don't like how that distributes your remaining stack between a preflop reraise (1500 3-bet has teeth) and a flop push (he will be getting 2.5:1 to call; not enough fold equity IMO). By 3-betting to ~1000, your flop bet still has a lot of fold equity (and he should notice this, which actually gives your preflop 3-bet more teeth).

[Poker Addict 0]

I don't like shoving pre. Way too deep for that. I really do like flatting and seeing a safe-ish flop. The 3 hearts would worry anyone, but does he bet over pot if he has the flush? I think you are way ahead of his range I don't hate the check raise all in here. That is probably what I do - or I lead it out. But I am fine getting it in now.

[jmbreslin 0]

What I wouldn't like is flatting preflop (I wanted to play a small pot) and calling post flop (so much for that plan).

That's exactly why I hated the hand, his flop lead destroyed my smallball plan.

[jmbreslin 0]

I don't like shoving pre. Way too deep for that. I really do like flatting and seeing a safe-ish flop. The 3 hearts would worry anyone, but does he bet over pot if he has the flush? I think you are way ahead of his range I don't hate the check raise all in here. That is probably what I do - or I lead it out. But I am fine getting it in now.

That is what I did, check-raised all in. I figured he was most likely on the semi-bluff, with the worst-case scenario being AhJx. Unfortunately that wasn't actually the worst-case scenario - he called and flipped over TT. GG me.Looking back I think I would opt for the standard reraise PF, to about 1000ish. I actually don't think the flat call PF was terrible, the combination of the flop and his lead made it look much worse. There are many, many other flops that could have fit nicely into my plan.

[Aces Rule 0]

That is what I did, check-raised all in. I figured he was most likely on the semi-bluff, with the worst-case scenario being AhJx. Unfortunately that wasn't actually the worst-case scenario - he called and flipped over TT. GG me.

Odd way to play a set even with a 3-flush board. He was terribly lucky you had an overpair b/c the overbet would have shutdown the hand otherwise and he would have lost any extra value he might have gotten playing more coventionally (that is a 1/2-2/3 pot bet) - rather stupid actually. The pf re-r wouldn't have changed anything b/c he would have called and still flopped the set but at least then he would have more reason to think you had a strong hand and the overbet would have made more sense. Also the re-r preflop would have placed the lead in your court so his overbet would have been a raise over your lead out (unless you checked into him) but I don't see you not getting it all in even then.

[throwemaway 0]

That is what I did, check-raised all in. I figured he was most likely on the semi-bluff, with the worst-case scenario being AhJx. Unfortunately that wasn't actually the worst-case scenario - he called and flipped over TT. GG me.Looking back I think I would opt for the standard reraise PF, to about 1000ish. I actually don't think the flat call PF was terrible, the combination of the flop and his lead made it look much worse. There are many, many other flops that could have fit nicely into my plan.

Maybe the flat call isn't awful (I'm repopping to 1000 like many others advocated) but I don't really understand your post flop play..If your looking to flat in order to keep the pot small and punish bigger edges in a grand scheme of things, you should be check/folding this flop, even if you think hes on a semi bluff...When he overbets like that, you don't really have any fold equity and are gonna HAVE to win at showdown..If you have to continue with the hand, as played, I think calling and shoving Non heart/Non ace turns is your best play..However I think after the preflop line, check/call>>check/fold>>>check/raise all in