Big(ish) Draw In The $27.50 40k

[HighwayStar 8]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)CO (t5608)Button (t17107)SB (t11064)BB (t11125)UTG (t58075)UTG+1 (t25752)MP1 (t18607)MP2 (t17775)Hero (t19151)Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q , T . UTG calls t600, 2 folds, MP2 calls t600, Hero calls t600, 1 fold, Button calls t600, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: (t4050) A , 9 , 8 (6 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets t4800, Hero ?!!?Villain was 29/6 over 17 hands. Didn't have anything else on him but that since I was multitabling. I was probably fairly active at the time.Correct move?Extra infoI was about 80/350 at the tme, 288 payUTG with 58k was very very bad, I could see him bubblingButton/SB/BB were all fairly solid.

[HighwayStar 8]

I guess I'm probably going to end up answering my own question but thinking about it/chatting w/JeffI think he has to have 2 pair or a set here.So, disregarding the players to act.Board: As 9s 8cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 39.760% 39.76% 00.00% 9447 0.00 { QsTs }Hand 1: 60.240% 60.24% 00.00% 14313 0.00 { 99-88, A9s-A8s, A9o-A8o }Seem right??Any thoughts on the ranges?I guess this makes it a very very close shove given chips in pot?Not too sure about that statement, given I've only invested 600 chips and I'm in a decent position anyway.

[outsider13 0]

Board: As 9s 8cDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	43.610%	  43.43% 	00.18% 			 28375 		  120.00   { QsTs }Hand 1: 	56.390%	  56.21% 	00.18% 			 36725 		  120.00   { 99-88, A8s+, A8o+ }

Opening up the range a bit to some random A hands, at worst you are about 40% against his range. I'm weary about a call here 4 handed, I'd probably shove or fold here, leaning more towards the shove. It's a set here more often than not, but 2 pair is a def possibility. Shove, hope for the Ks on the turn, only to lose to a boat on the river. That's pretty standard.

[HighwayStar 8]

I doubt he ever has AK/AQ/AJ here, based on preflop action and the WTF overbet.Other things he could have are weird combo draws, since I have no idea how he would play them. Trying to think what that could entail. Given the the As is already out I can't think of many.Can't ahve 7s Ts given I have Ts, 7s6s maybe. Or 7s Js?? Seems unlikely. This dude was limping a lot though.

[outsider13 0]

I doubt he ever has AK/AQ/AJ here, based on preflop action and the WTF overbet.Other things he could have are weird combo draws, since I have no idea how he would play them. Trying to think what that could entail. Given the the As is already out I can't think of many

yeah AK AQ are probably not in his range. I just cant see KsXs here ever, and I don't think JT will ever overbet like that. I think you have the best draw possible imo.

[TravisG 0]

i muck this. if you have some read on him or if he just lost a big pot, this could be a tilt bet, but usually this is something strong. anyways he's never in a million years going to fold if you shove, and calling is just bad.

[mk 11]

if this is a tough flop decision for you you should be folding pre 100%

[BeaverStyle 1]

Seems pretty obvious to me here that villain flopped a strong two pair hand but knows that w/ all the limpers, many draws are potentially out there. That's if MP2 is slightly intelligent, something I'm giving him credit for here.If you call flop and miss the turn, MP2 certainly should realize where he is and shove the rest in. IMO, you only have 600 invested w/ a big draw, and someone in the hand who clearly likes his hand. I think folding is the safe and clear play, but if gambling for a big stack is something you fancy, get your money in, you're hardly ever in REALLY bad shape w/ this hand.

[HighwayStar 8]

When the hand popped up I saw1) A big draw2) Fold Equity3) Lots of chips to be wonSo I just went into autopilot and shipped it in. Looking back fold equity has nothing to do with it s ince he clearly isn't going away and it also appears to be mathematically unsound.This would have put me about 20/350 with a monster 40k stack, which is a position I far far prefer to 80/350 with 30 BBs. You're set up to go very deep with that stack size whereas 30 BBs is a bit meh.

[Poker Addict 0]

Phil, you are teh maths guy. Put what you think he has into stove, figure this guy loves his hand but is protecting it from draws and 50% of the time you are going to stack him anyway if the flush hits because he feels he can't fold it now no matter what. IDK if it's really 50%, but play with the numbers to see if you have odds/implied odds to call. Plus, if you just flat, do you get one of the other guys to come along thinking they have odds there?EDIT: People in Tourny Strat12 User(s) are browsing this forum (9 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)3 Members: Poker Addict, Tehtoe, HighwayStarHi brothers!!! <3<3

[TravisG 0]

Phil, you are teh maths guy. Put what you think he has into stove, figure this guy loves his hand but is protecting it from draws and 50% of the time you are going to stack him anyway if the flush hits because he feels he can't fold it now no matter what. IDK if it's really 50%, but play with the numbers to see if you have odds/implied odds to call. Plus, if you just flat, do you get one of the other guys to come along thinking they have odds there?EDIT: People in Tourny Strat12 User(s) are browsing this forum (9 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)3 Members: Poker Addict, Tehtoe, HighwayStarHi brothers!!! <3<3

i think there are no odds/implied odds here. the bet is just too big. fold equity is exactly 0%. but gamboooling it up for a big stack is fine with me.

[HighwayStar 8]

I'm not really the maths guy....

[pokerinc 0]

If you can't fold him off the hand shoving's the wrong play. Maybe if the action had another caller in there already but as is it's not solid and seems to be a leak.

[Gaffer 0]

I dunno utg complicate things, you said he was bad whats to stop him calling and outdonking you both, and if you call and utg goes all in meh i would fold but i suck

[copernicus 0]

Nits will probably say fold PF, and I might depending on my mood but a sooted Varkonyi is hard to resist. Unfortunately you have to fold this flop. He's saying he has a made hand is overbetting to make draws pay dearly, and you arent going to see a free river card. Even knowing you would get a free river card this is a fold against one player, but you may get sufficient implied odds with another caller besides yourself.

[HighwayStar 8]

I'm the anti - nit, I don't think I'm ever folding pf here.You're right probably, even though it sucks.I played QTs for 2 pair or better, and this sort of flop but I'm not getting any sort of decent price here.bleh, lame

[Eight_Tabler 0]

Spots like this really suck... I hate it when I flop a huge draw and someone overbets the pot and probably has something they are willing to go with. Still, I'm usually in favor of taking the most aggressive line in mtts to try and build a big stack and go really deep. Calling is obviously very bad here, but I think you have enough fold equity to make the shove. To be honest I think he probably has two pair here, or maybe a strong ace he's willing to go with; but you really aren't in horrible shape against those hands. Without really crunching the numbers I think even if he only folds 10-20% of the time here to a shove it's still the right play.I'm not too worried about the button/sb/bb waking up with something big behind me... they probably won't, and even if they do it's still a great spot to get tons of chips if you hit your big draw.

[Eight_Tabler 0]

just read threw the responses and I completely disagree that you have no fold equity here. There is definitely a chance that he could fold - maybe small but definitely a chance... at least 10% I think, probably more. Sure it looks like two pair or better, but he could easily be doing this with a weakish ace b/c he's scared of the possible draws out there. With a weakish ace he could (and should), fold to a reraise imo. Obviously overbetting the pot on this flop with a weak ace is awful, but there are tons of bad players out there...And there is definitely a non-neglible chance he could have some sort of big draw also, with a worse flush draw... like the 76s or something like that, which you are in good shape against.Gamble it up and shove imo.

[gobears 0]

just read threw the responses and I completely disagree that you have no fold equity here. There is definitely a chance that he could fold - maybe small but definitely a chance... at least 10% I think, probably more. Sure it looks like two pair or better, but he could easily be doing this with a weakish ace b/c he's scared of the possible draws out there. With a weakish ace he could (and should), fold to a reraise imo. Obviously overbetting the pot on this flop with a weak ace is awful, but there are tons of bad players out there...And there is definitely a non-neglible chance he could have some sort of big draw also, with a worse flush draw... like the 76s or something like that, which you are in good shape against.Gamble it up and shove imo.

Assuming all the chips go into the pot - you're getting 1.2+ to 1 on the call. You have 12 outs twice so you need about 1.1-1. Adding in the fact that you have at least some FE and that villain might also have a weaker draw, I'd shove. I pretty much agree with eight tabler's analysis above.You limp with these hands to flop two pair+ or a big draw. You got the big draw.

[Merby 3]

Haven't read the replies.It certainly depends on the table dynamics, but I am folding this hand preflop about 90% of the time. I forget the antes at the 300/600 level, but if they are 75, then the starting pot is 1575 and we have an M of 12. I really don't like limping here, as at this point in the tournament, I am looking to pick up unwanted pots, resteal versus aggressive opponents, and (of course) cash in with my monster hands. At most tables, this hand belongs in the muck. Once we catch this flop, I am willing to felt here. Since we are in the worst position relative to the bettor and any bricked turn brutalizes our hand value, I am not calling. Calling off 1/4 of our stack here to fold on a bricked turn (or lose action when we improve and our opponent gives up) is just horrible. Just shovel and leave it to the poker gods to decide your fate.

[copernicus 0]

Assuming all the chips go into the pot - you're getting 1.2+ to 1 on the call. You have 12 outs twice so you need about 1.1-1. Adding in the fact that you have at least some FE and that villain might also have a weaker draw, I'd shove. I pretty much agree with eight tabler's analysis above.You limp with these hands to flop two pair+ or a big draw. You got the big draw.

I dont think you can count on a full 12 outs here, between pairs + bd flush draws (sometimes with the K), made straights, and oesd's that have one of your Js (and you may tie unless its the Js that hits) there are a lot of situations that fit his play that counterfeit some of your draws. Id discount it to 11 and maybe even 10 outs. Its still close at 11 outs, a pretty easy fold at 10 unless you think youve got decent FE for a push back.