Kaveros 0 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 does anyone know what the line is on the obama mccain race? Link to post Share on other sites
xmykro 0 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Bodog:John McCain +165Barack Obama -225Sportsbook.com:Barack Obama - 1-2John McCain - 3-2BETUS:John McCain: +185Barack Obama: -250 Link to post Share on other sites
Kaveros 0 Posted July 19, 2008 Author Share Posted July 19, 2008 cheers man Link to post Share on other sites
Moneyball16 0 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ from projection genius Nate Silver. Obama 62.7% to win. Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Paddypower.McCain 9-4 Obama 2-7 Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 USA conventional wisdom:Party in power will lose if the economy is badChallenging party will pick up seats in house and senateBG take:GG USA economy. Link to post Share on other sites
LongLiveYorke 38 Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 USA conventional wisdom:Party in power will lose if the economy is badChallenging party will pick up seats in house and senateBG take:GG USA economy.But at least you're going to end up voting for a winner. So that should make you feel good. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 But at least you're going to end up voting for a winner. So that should make you feel good.About as good as you will feel when you accidently create a black hole in Europe. Link to post Share on other sites
Gaffer 0 Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 About as good as you will feel when you accidently create a black hole in Europe.Yes please try to not destroy europe. Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 About as good as you will feel when you accidently create a black hole in Europe.LOL there is nothing accidental about LLY's plan to conquer/destroy the world. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 LOL there is nothing accidental about LLY's plan to conquer/destroy the world.What it is it with short guys? Link to post Share on other sites
LongLiveYorke 38 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 What it is it with short guys?Hey, on a good day and if I really stretch, I can make it all the way up to 5'10.5'', so there!Okay, maybe 5'10'' Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Hey, on a good day and if I really stretch, I can make it all the way up to 5'10.5'', so there!Okay, maybe 5'10''I used to be 5'10.5"in 7th grade Link to post Share on other sites
Nimue1995 1 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 I used to be 5'10.5"in 7th grade Did you grow or shrink? (or does it depend on which side of the mushroom you're eating that day?) Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 New polls have things tightening up considerably. It will be interesting to see if that filters into the lines.The Iowa electronic markets, which I think is a more informed betting public but much smaller, had Obama at a 60% vote share in the beginning of the month, down to 53% last night. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 New polls have things tightening up considerably. It will be interesting to see if that filters into the lines.The Iowa electronic markets, which I think is a more informed betting public but much smaller, had Obama at a 60% vote share in the beginning of the month, down to 53% last night.Seriously, if Obama and the dems lose this election I think it would be a good idea of they just pack it in as a party. I mean, if you can't beat Bush in '04 and can't beat ANY republican after '04-'08 then you have some very serious issues as a primary party. It's your election to lose and your top candidate isn't winning by a decisive margin? Again?This race should be so far out of control the bookmakers wouldn't take bets on it. Link to post Share on other sites
akoff 0 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Seriously, if Obama and the dems lose this election I think it would be a good idea of they just pack it in as a party. I mean, if you can't beat Bush in '04 and can't beat ANY republican after '04-'08 then you have some very serious issues as a primary party. It's your election to lose and your top candidate isn't winning by a decisive margin? Again?This race should be so far out of control the bookmakers wouldn't take bets on it.LOL so true...but it is still coin flip. The party refuses to put forth a candidate that has the best chance to win tima after time. I love it. The best part is they don't LEARN...LOL all they had to do is go slightly to the center in this election and they win in a landslide...and we should give them control of health care, dumb asses. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Seriously, if Obama and the dems lose this election I think it would be a good idea of they just pack it in as a party. I mean, if you can't beat Bush in '04 and can't beat ANY republican after '04-'08 then you have some very serious issues as a primary party. It's your election to lose and your top candidate isn't winning by a decisive margin? Again?This race should be so far out of control the bookmakers wouldn't take bets on it.QFT. If the Democrats would learn that Harvard Law Students dont sit well with America (and to be clear this is because America has issues not Harvard Law Students) they might win sometimes.There has to be a Democrat governor somewhere who served in the military and is left of center on most issues. Or something like that.btw, Jim Webb would have been the perfect VP for Obama....too bad he aint interested. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Seriously, if Obama and the dems lose this election I think it would be a good idea of they just pack it in as a party. I mean, if you can't beat Bush in '04 and can't beat ANY republican after '04-'08 then you have some very serious issues as a primary party. It's your election to lose and your top candidate isn't winning by a decisive margin? Again?This race should be so far out of control the bookmakers wouldn't take bets on it.No political race in an established 2 party system will ever be that far out of control, especially with the electoral college thrown in as a balancing factor. Presidential elections are decided by 5 or 6% of the voters, the rest are split pretty evenly. The swing voters are a very difficult bunch to predict.Then in this election add in the race factor and youre really rolling the dice trying to predict a winner. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 No political race in an established 2 party system will ever be that far out of control, especially with the electoral college thrown in as a balancing factor. Presidential elections are decided by 5 or 6% of the voters, the rest are split pretty evenly. The swing voters are a very difficult bunch to predict.Then in this election add in the race factor and youre really rolling the dice trying to predict a winner.I based my statement on a small sample size. I consider myself a conservative tree hugger and mostly talk politics with a group of guys who are right of right..somewhere just shy of Hitler type nationalism. Even they are having doubts about the direction the repubs are heading. If they are, I would have thought that "split pretty evenly" has changed subtly, if not a minor form of drastic.Yeah, those guys won't ever vote for Obama, but they very well could sit this one out. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I based my statement on a small sample size. I consider myself a conservative tree hugger and mostly talk politics with a group of guys who are right of right..somewhere just shy of Hitler type nationalism. Even they are having doubts about the direction the repubs are heading. If they are, I would have thought that "split pretty evenly" has changed subtly, if not a minor form of drastic.Yeah, those guys won't ever vote for Obama, but they very well could sit this one out.A lot of people talk about sitting it out, McCain being a RINO etc, but when it comes down to election dayForeign policy/national securityTaxesSocialized health care1-3 Supreme Court Justicesshould be enough to motivate even the laziest Republican! If not they deserve what they get...but don't let them take me down with them! Link to post Share on other sites
Southern Buddhist 1 Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 A lot of people talk about sitting it out, McCain being a RINO etc, but when it comes down to election dayForeign policy/national securityTaxesSocialized health care1-3 Supreme Court Justicesshould be enough to motivate even the laziest Republican! If not they deserve what they get...but don't let them take me down with them! Depends on whether you consider yourself a conservative first and a Republican second, or a Republican first and a conservative second.If you're a Republican first, you'll vote McCain. But if he wins, it's not likely that a conservative will be nominated again for a long time, because the public despises the conservatives in office now, and the party will have proven that it doesn't need conservatives to win -- it can win with someone the conservative movement hates. So if they can win without you, and the public hates you, why would they ever nominate one of you again????However, if you're a conservative first, you might need McCain to lose. If he loses, you'll have proven to the party leadership that they cannot win without you, and in 2012, they will throw party weight behind a conservative nominee.[before you argue that it's the public that chooses nominees, party leadership does play an important role. It was party leadership that paid for the push polling in 2000 in South Carolina that torpedoed McCain's candidacy then, it's the party that all the soft money goes to and it is under no obligation to pass that money on to the current candidate, and it's party machinery that manages the get-out-the-vote efforts on Election Day.]If McCain wins, conservatives have probably lost. If he loses, they might have won in the internal struggle for control of the party. But as it is now, the party asked itself if it could afford to piss conservatives off, and concluded, "Eh, what are they gonna do, vote for Obama?" Conservatives' votes have been taken for granted, and you can either go along with that or fight back by sitting out the election.Congratulations, you've been Sister Souljah'd! Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 the concept that conservatives win by losing is so asinine its barely worth commenting on. 4 years of a Marxist who has made promises that, if he can carry them out, will cripple the US economy for years beyond his term is not worth winning in 2012.go back to MSNBC where they try to sell theories like that to a non-thinking swing voter.And btw, that kind of theory can only be proposed by someone who's mindset is already party > country. Disgusting. Link to post Share on other sites
Southern Buddhist 1 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 the concept that conservatives win by losing is so asinine its barely worth commenting on. 4 years of a Marxist who has made promises that, if he can carry them out, will cripple the US economy for years beyond his term is not worth winning in 2012.go back to MSNBC where they try to sell theories like that to a non-thinking swing voter.And btw, that kind of theory can only be proposed by someone who's mindset is already party > country. Disgusting.Yeah, 'cause eight years of Bush hasn't harmed the economy one bit....Instead of spewing venom and insults, how about answering this: if McCain wins, how much power will the conservative wing of the party have? Once in office, will he kowtow to them? Will he make sure they fill leadership posts? Will he appoint them to the bench? Will he use their rhetoric and make sure to act on their issues like gay marriage?As for the rest of your rant, you obviously aren't a swing voter, and the prospect of Supreme Court justices being Republican (I guess we've done away with the fig leaf that they're actually nonpartisan and appointed for their ability) is enough to motivate you. So you're the very one putting party above all here. If you find it disgusting, get the plank out of your own eye. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Yeah, 'cause eight years of Bush hasn't harmed the economy one bit....Instead of spewing venom and insults, how about answering this: if McCain wins, how much power will the conservative wing of the party have? Once in office, will he kowtow to them? Will he make sure they fill leadership posts? Will he appoint them to the bench? Will he use their rhetoric and make sure to act on their issues like gay marriage?As for the rest of your rant, you obviously aren't a swing voter, and the prospect of Supreme Court justices being Republican (I guess we've done away with the fig leaf that they're actually nonpartisan and appointed for their ability) is enough to motivate you. So you're the very one putting party above all here. If you find it disgusting, get the plank out of your own eye.The economy has done quite well given the obstacles. Bush has done a great job. If you dont think so, you dont know economics.Conservatives will have about as much power as they do now..not nearly enough. I do trust him to appoint conservatives to the court though. Gay marriage? GMAFB. Who cares? Abortion? Who cares? Asinine things that dont affect them occupy liberals minds far too much.Learn to read. I dont give a flying fin what "party" someone claims to belong to. I believe in the country first, conservative principles second (because they are best for country for the most part) and party means nothing. Link to post Share on other sites
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