Sports Gambling 201

[rcooj_7 0]

Pretty easy to brag about a bet after the game has been played....I've also given up on the NFL, the favourites always seem to cover this year. College football though on the other hand is going very well.

just saying that when the twins/Tigers game was going on, I thought the yanks would be -250+ to whoever they were playing

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

You are reffering to parlaying the Spread I assume... you still think that parlaying the moneyline has bad value?

yes

just saying that when the twins/Tigers game was going on, I thought the yanks would be -250+ to whoever they were playing

yes I agree that's the line they should have been.. but they were instead -370... and there's were value comes from in contrarian betting.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

You are reffering to parlaying the Spread I assume... you still think that parlaying the moneyline has bad value?Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 Texas Tech Red Raiders -700Arizona State Sun Devils -1400BYU Cougars -750This was my parlay today on them all to win straight up45 to win 30

**** man, the more I read this the angrier I get. THis thread is not about sucker sports bets, it's about going against the public. Betting on -1400 Favorites in parlay situations is not on topic. Get the fuck out of here with this nonsense.

[Jadaki 0]

**** man, the more I read this the angrier I get. THis thread is not about sucker sports bets, it's about going against the public. Betting on -1400 Favorites in parlay situations is not on topic. Get the fuck out of here with this nonsense.

[rcooj_7 0]

**** man, the more I read this the angrier I get. THis thread is not about sucker sports bets, it's about going against the public. Betting on -1400 Favorites in parlay situations is not on topic. Get the fuck out of here with this nonsense.

the title is sports gambling 201....How is parlaying -1400 NOT on topic?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

the title is sports gambling 201....How is parlaying -1400 NOT on topic?

Do me a favor.. read the OP, then get the fuck out of here.

[bigkg 0]

the title is sports gambling 201....

Actually the title is:"Sports Gambling 201: An Introduction to Contrarianism and Value"

[rcooj_7 0]

Getting back on the sports betting train. I say a thread in another forum called "lock of the century" so that perked my contrarian interest.. The pick was the Giants -300 verses Cin... I've never seen a baseball line 300 or over before( granted I don't look much) and I had to assume TL is pitching ( he is..)So I did a little research on it, and on one of my sports betting sites I saw that the betting was on the giants like 91%-9.. and the line hasn't really been moving..So....I know what that means..I swallowed my vomit, and pounded Cincinnati for 4 units.

interesting

[rcooj_7 0]

some crazy things...The dolphins went from being a 2.5 dog to a 2.5 favorite, even though like 80 percent of the betting was on the bills. that's nuts.the yankees were -370 before game 1 started. I wish I would have known this before the game, so I could have dropped 10 unites on the twins..that's the most absurd line I've ever seen... I don't care how good one team is, and I don't care if the other team just played an extra inning 1 game playoff the night before, there never should be a 370 favorite in a playoff game. This game should be like +210 or something.

you confuse me with your thought process on the baseball moneyline.... And i dont want to leave the thread, It has helped... and I still follow it.... I just enjoy betting, and I sont want tot start ANOTHER thread on sportsbets... when i could post here... Instead of being a dick, can you just HELP me, maybe give me advice?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

you confuse me with your thought process on the baseball moneyline.... And i dont want to leave the thread, It has helped... and I still follow it.... I just enjoy betting, and I sont want tot start ANOTHER thread on sportsbets... when i could post here... Instead of being a dick, can you just HELP me, maybe give me advice?

This is not a thread to talk about your random degen sucker bets, this is thread on contrarian betting I wasn't fucking kidding, read the original fucking post. There is a purpose to this thread, and like everyone else in the thread, you should read the original fucking post so you understand that purpose. I'm not going to explain ground covered earlier in this thread, just for you, when you can read page one and understand it clearly.

[rcooj_7 0]

This is not a thread to talk about your random degen sucker bets, this is thread on contrarian betting I wasn't fucking kidding, read the original fucking post. There is a purpose to this thread, and like everyone else in the thread, you should read the original fucking post so you understand that purpose. I'm not going to explain ground covered earlier in this thread, just for you, when you can read page one and understand it clearly.

you ignorant ass... first off... this thread is practically dead.... it gets hits like 3 times a month.... Thats not the point.... My "degen" bets have been hitting a lot better then the recent picks on this thread.... secoundly, I have read page one and understand it all.... thats awesome.... but now what? we open this thread up again every other month and talk about Contrarian picks that arent even hitting? and what is with the F-bombs? not necessary

[rcooj_7 0]

Honestly, I hate tension. I really hate fighting with people..... SO, in the means of saving me.... I am curious to what site you check to look at the betting % of the population... Currently I am getting my numbers at covers.com... but they have limited numbers of betters, something like 2k on a average basis... suggestions?

[rcooj_7 0]

Yes. I will address this at some point. In the particular game I'm talking about, I mentioned that the Sox were a good bet, but that I didn't have the stomach to lay that much chalk. The Red Sox won handily. This topic should actually be covered in Sports Gambling 101. FIND REDUCED JUICE. If you're seeing splits like -110/-110, you're probably going to have a tough time showing a profit. One of the most important aspects of showing a profit betting on sports is posting up at a shop that spreads lines that look like -104/-104, or -- ideally -- at a place like Matchbook, where I pay a 1% commission on winning baseball wagers (2% on other sports), and nothing else. Worst case scenario, for bases, I'm looking at -102/-102. At that point, I am ONLY losing money if the true price is even-money, or -101/+101 either way. All things considered, with juice this low, there are very, very few spots where I'm going to be any worse than break-even in the long run. It is significantly, significantly more likely that I have positive equity than negative, which is a recipe for longterm success and profitability. Well, I'm glad you asked. There are a handful of ways to tell where the public is.1) Wagerline.The ultimate. Consensus data for all sports. Wagerline retards tend to blindly bet overs/favorites (or unders/favorites in baseball), but the information isn't provided by any individual sports book, which makes it significantly more trustworthy in my opinion.2) Vegas Insider.Consensus data, powered by sportsbook.com.3) The forums at Covers.Sports bettors go here to post their action and discuss sports betting. They are all idiots. It's easy to see which teams are popular by reading the forums and fading the shit out of them. Voila! You have your basic picture of the public's specific, game-by-game likes and dislikes.

Saw this now.... I have been using Wagerline.... but i cant find the stats on vegasinsider.

[Dirtydutch 8]

Thats not the point.... My "degen" bets have been hitting a lot better then the recent picks on this thread

I imagine this one is up your alley, Mac:Rcooj, I'm kind of not entirely trying to be an ass with this question: do you honestly believe that this is rational method and an adequate sample for measuring the expectation of a bet?

[JoeyJoJo 18]

Love it.Chad MillmanThis guy was on one of the Bill Simmons podcasts; the link above is about the book he wrote about sports gambling. On the podcast he talked about a lot of the same ideas in this thread.By the way, the book isn't a "how-to" book about sports gambling. He spent an entire NCAA basketball season in Vegas talking to bookmakers and "wise guys" and it's more of a story about that.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

you ignorant ass... first off... this thread is practically dead.... it gets hits like 3 times a month.... Thats not the point.... My "degen" bets have been hitting a lot better then the recent picks on this thread.... secoundly, I have read page one and understand it all.... thats awesome.... but now what? we open this thread up again every other month and talk about Contrarian picks that arent even hitting? and what is with the F-bombs? not necessary

I hate to be a contrarian, but my usage of fuck was extremely necessary. Now, Fuck off.

[rcooj_7 0]

Rcooj, I'm kind of not entirely trying to be an ass with this question: do you honestly believe that this is rational method and an adequate sample for measuring the expectation of a bet?

What? Betting contrarian?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

What? Betting contrarian?

[rcooj_7 0]

So when I talk about bets, that arent contrarian. That is off topic. But when you post stupid pictures, posts that belittle me, you are on topic?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

So when I talk about bets, that arent contrarian. That is off topic. But when you post stupid pictures, posts that belittle me, you are on topic?

[Dirtydutch 8]

What? Betting contrarian?

I wasn't entirely sure why Mac was just facepalming you instead of engaging long-form debate. With this post, I understand.

[JoeyJoJo 18]

I love this thread.

[Banner17 0]

Love it.Chad MillmanThis guy was on one of the Bill Simmons podcasts; the link above is about the book he wrote about sports gambling. On the podcast he talked about a lot of the same ideas in this thread.By the way, the book isn't a "how-to" book about sports gambling. He spent an entire NCAA basketball season in Vegas talking to bookmakers and "wise guys" and it's more of a story about that.

I read The Odds and it was a great read. The main guy in the book is Alan Boston who is a Full Tilt pro, and can be seen on youtube if you search for alien poker player. He's the crazy bald headed guy. You can play stud with him usually on Sunday nights at Full Tilt. He plays like 1-2 to 3-6 stud. Sometimes, I'll sit with him and chat. He's very nice to the players and will answer just about anyting you ask him. I can tell you one thing -- he hates his life as a gambler. He can still win at college hoops, but he says it's the worst thing that has ever happened to him. Makes sense. Here he is an Ivy League grad probably in his mid-40s and he has to gamble to chop out a 100,000 a year. Anyone who is/was ever successful at gambling over any decent period of time knows it's a ton of hard work and long hours of preparation to win. Using his Dartmouth degree somehow would have been a much wiser allocation of his time and sanity. As for the contrarian approach, I feel as though it's like advising someone to play ultra tight in poker. You basically give them a way to lose their money more slowly. I followed the contrarian approach in the baseball season for about 3 months. I bet between 7 and 12 games a day. Over this period of time I lost about 7 units. I was playing 1 unit plays per baseball game. Lost 7 units in total. That is as close to doing nothing as one could get. The thing with contrarian and baseball is my record was atrocious if I was a normal sports bettor (I posted it earlier in the thread). I think I won only like 43% of my games, but since I was usually always backing the dogs, the bets I hit paid off nicely almost to the point where if I won a bet I could lose two. After the 3 months I eventually just quit. I missed a day, then two, then just stopped. I didn't really care to bet anymore.Currently, I am betting sports again and doing well. My friends and I purchased a service for the football season called ATS Locks Club under ATS Sports Consultants. They bought it prior to the college football and NFL preseason. I got on late being the last week of NFL preseason. The Locks Club gives you both college and pro football plays. Thus far, I'm up 52.4 units. My friends are up more since they were there for all the preseason NFL. They are surprisingly good at preseason NFL. The package costs $2,500 or 4,500 -- I forget.

[Jadaki 0]

I read The Odds and it was a great read. The main guy in the book is Alan Boston who is a Full Tilt pro, and can be seen on youtube if you search for alien poker player. He's the crazy bald headed guy. You can play stud with him usually on Sunday nights at Full Tilt. He plays like 1-2 to 3-6 stud. Sometimes, I'll sit with him and chat. He's very nice to the players and will answer just about anyting you ask him. I can tell you one thing -- he hates his life as a gambler. He can still win at college hoops, but he says it's the worst thing that has ever happened to him. Makes sense. Here he is an Ivy League grad probably in his mid-40s and he has to gamble to chop out a 100,000 a year. Anyone who is/was ever successful at gambling over any decent period of time knows it's a ton of hard work and long hours of preparation to win. Using his Dartmouth degree somehow would have been a much wiser allocation of his time and sanity. As for the contrarian approach, I feel as though it's like advising someone to play ultra tight in poker. You basically give them a way to lose their money more slowly. I followed the contrarian approach in the baseball season for about 3 months. I bet between 7 and 12 games a day. Over this period of time I lost about 7 units. I was playing 1 unit plays per baseball game. Lost 7 units in total. That is as close to doing nothing as one could get. The thing with contrarian and baseball is my record was atrocious if I was a normal sports bettor (I posted it earlier in the thread). I think I won only like 43% of my games, but since I was usually always backing the dogs, the bets I hit paid off nicely almost to the point where if I won a bet I could lose two. After the 3 months I eventually just quit. I missed a day, then two, then just stopped. I didn't really care to bet anymore.Currently, I am betting sports again and doing well. My friends and I purchased a service for the football season called ATS Locks Club under ATS Sports Consultants. They bought it prior to the college football and NFL preseason. I got on late being the last week of NFL preseason. The Locks Club gives you both college and pro football plays. Thus far, I'm up 52.4 units. My friends are up more since they were there for all the preseason NFL. They are surprisingly good at preseason NFL. The package costs $2,500 or 4,500 -- I forget.

You were only betting only 1 unit on 7-12 games a day. I'm not a great at sports betting by any means but never increasing units for good plays is probably why you just broke even. Not to mention it doesn't sound like you were being very picky about the games you bet if you are making that many plays a day. The people I know who are successful sports betters bet very few games overall.

[Banner17 0]

You were only betting only 1 unit on 7-12 games a day. I'm not a great at sports betting by any means but never increasing units for good plays is probably why you just broke even. Not to mention it doesn't sound like you were being very picky about the games you bet if you are making that many plays a day. The people I know who are successful sports betters bet very few games overall.

Yea, I was not picky at all. If it had more than 2/3rds public on one side, I took the anti-public side. I agree with you in that one needs to bet more units on their stronger plays. However, I guess it goes to show you that Wang may have been on to something. I believe I bet about 400 games (like I said I posted my record somewhere in this thread) and was only down 7 units. I'm not lying to you. I kept records on it. I believe that Wang's theory may be on to something, but one needs to refine it. Screen down the number of games, and bet more units on your stronger plays. I'm just not smart enough to do it.