Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 1, 2009 Share Posted May 1, 2009 Does anybody know how to check the public bet percentages on things such as boxing, UFC, golf etc?I can't find it on vegas insider Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted May 2, 2009 Share Posted May 2, 2009 any leans on hatton-paq? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Hey Wang, question for you:Suppose Houston is playing the Lakers. The line opens at -9.0 for the Lakers. The Lakers obviously get pounded by the public at something like 80%. Line moves to -8.5, which follows contrarian bet. Line then moves to -8.0, which is even better for contrarian bet. But then the line moves to -8.5.Does this move scare you or should it not affect you? I mean the line is still under the opening line, but at the same time, it isn't moving the way you want to move it. Like is something up, where the Lakers all of a sudden are a solid bet? Link to post Share on other sites
Banner17 0 Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Alright, so I've been following Wang's contrarian approach and fading the public sides. I do not follow lines movements however. I have been betting on anti-public sides for the past 30 days, and I am 94-120 or 43.9%. I am down -12x. The number is relatively small because I bet mostly on baseball and hockey which have moneylines, and the public is virtually ALWAYS on the favorite. I may have placed a bet on a favorite 5 times in 214 games. It's ridiculous. So, you know for certain that the books know which team the public is going to bet on, and if you believe that they skew the line to give them a larger edge than this theory of Wang's is for you.I'm not saying it's not for me. I feel as though 214 games is too small a sample size. I will make my decision to continue or not after 1,000 games which will be around the end of baseball season. However, I am starting to think that I should be "screening" the criteria of an "anti-public side". On any given day, I may have 6 to 18 games that fade the public. My question to Wang or BigDMcGee is how should I further screen down from here? I would prefer my betting style to bet fewer games for larger quantity of units rather than peppering the board for less units. Should I make my criteria for a baseball bet be:1) Fade the public2) Must have the ERA vs FIP stats of pitcher working in coordination with my bet. (i.e. Harden's FIP is about 0.90 runs higher than his ERA, therefore it make even more sense to fade the Cubs w/ Harden pitching)3) The line movements (I am unclear what to be looking for here -- please explain)Thanks. Any insights would be appreciated.Banner17 Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Getting back on the sports betting train. I say a thread in another forum called "lock of the century" so that perked my contrarian interest.. The pick was the Giants -300 verses Cin... I've never seen a baseball line 300 or over before( granted I don't look much) and I had to assume TL is pitching ( he is..)So I did a little research on it, and on one of my sports betting sites I saw that the betting was on the giants like 91%-9.. and the line hasn't really been moving..So....I know what that means..I swallowed my vomit, and pounded Cincinnati for 4 units. Link to post Share on other sites
Jadaki 0 Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 I swallowed my vomit, and pounded Cincinnati for 4 units.Good luck Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 The line moved the wrong way. It was -300, then -320. I have money on Pittsburgh tonight. STL was a big public favourite, and the line moved in a way to increase more betting on STL Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted August 8, 2009 Share Posted August 8, 2009 The line moved the wrong way. It was -300, then -320. I have money on Pittsburgh tonight. STL was a big public favourite, and the line moved in a way to increase more betting on STLon the site I check at, it boucned between 300 and 320, and is back on 300 when I made that post. regardless, with betting in the 90-10 range, you would think the line would have moved to 450... Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted August 8, 2009 Share Posted August 8, 2009 on the site I check at, it boucned between 300 and 320, and is back on 300 when I made that post. regardless, with betting in the 90-10 range, you would think the line would have moved to 450...I don't think the line would need to move to 450. A line generally at most moves about 40. Usually it only moves about 10-20 points at most. It's already at a lot of juice, so I wouldn't expect it to move too much. But still, yeah 90/10 is a good split. I just think the line movement doesn't work the right way. If it bounced back to 300 though, that's a good bet. P.S. Pirates suck Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted August 8, 2009 Share Posted August 8, 2009 on the site I check at, it boucned between 300 and 320, and is back on 300 when I made that post. regardless, with betting in the 90-10 range, you would think the line would have moved to 450...NICE HIT DUDE!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Pittsburgh opened at -3. They got over 75% action, and it's now at -1.Chicago +1 Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Gmen opened at -7. Over 75% of action and now laying 6.5. Bucs at home? Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Gmen opened at -7. Over 75% of action and now laying 6.5. Bucs at home?St Louis, same thing. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 what does that translate to? Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 bucs at home covering? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 I'm betting the Bucs heavy, and the Rams too. A little more on the Bucs (+6.5), as the line started at -7. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Also pounding the under the NO/BUF Game. 85% of the action on the over, and the O/U is moving lower to encourage more betting on the over. Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Why is an undefeated major market Jets team being spotted a TD only getting 43% of the action?edit: Answer: because the Saints are the most public team in the NFL. Ugh. Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Also am I correct that the books are backing the Chiefs? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 some crazy things...The dolphins went from being a 2.5 dog to a 2.5 favorite, even though like 80 percent of the betting was on the bills. that's nuts.the yankees were -370 before game 1 started. I wish I would have known this before the game, so I could have dropped 10 unites on the twins..that's the most absurd line I've ever seen... I don't care how good one team is, and I don't care if the other team just played an extra inning 1 game playoff the night before, there never should be a 370 favorite in a playoff game. This game should be like +210 or something. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted October 8, 2009 Share Posted October 8, 2009 some crazy things...The dolphins went from being a 2.5 dog to a 2.5 favorite, even though like 80 percent of the betting was on the bills. that's nuts.the yankees were -370 before game 1 started. I wish I would have known this before the game, so I could have dropped 10 unites on the twins..that's the most absurd line I've ever seen... I don't care how good one team is, and I don't care if the other team just played an extra inning 1 game playoff the night before, there never should be a 370 favorite in a playoff game. This game should be like +210 or something.You think so? I projected a high line there... honestly, fresh yanks... CC on the mound.... I parlayed yanks to win game one and to win the series at -275, $137.50 to win $50 i thought it was a great bet Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted October 8, 2009 Share Posted October 8, 2009 You think so? I projected a high line there... honestly, fresh yanks... CC on the mound.... I parlayed yanks to win game one and to win the series at -275, $137.50 to win $50 i thought it was a great betPretty easy to brag about a bet after the game has been played....I've also given up on the NFL, the favourites always seem to cover this year. College football though on the other hand is going very well. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 8, 2009 Share Posted October 8, 2009 You think so? I projected a high line there... honestly, fresh yanks... CC on the mound.... I parlayed yanks to win game one and to win the series at -275, $137.50 to win $50 i thought it was a great beti don't think it was a great bet, no. of course the yankees are fresh, of course cc is on the mound, of course the twins just came off a 12 inning game. you know this, i know this and the entire betting public knows this. i'll tell you one thing about contrarian betting. You will never, ever, ever get value betting on the yankees. Or betting parleys, for that matter. Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 Pretty easy to brag about a bet after the game has been played....I've also given up on the NFL, the favourites always seem to cover this year. College football though on the other hand is going very well.Lol I'm betting the Skins, Bucs, and Rams. Link to post Share on other sites
rcooj_7 0 Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 i don't think it was a great bet, no. of course the yankees are fresh, of course cc is on the mound, of course the twins just came off a 12 inning game. you know this, i know this and the entire betting public knows this. i'll tell you one thing about contrarian betting. You will never, ever, ever get value betting on the yankees. Or betting parleys, for that matter.You are reffering to parlaying the Spread I assume... you still think that parlaying the moneyline has bad value?Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 Texas Tech Red Raiders -700Arizona State Sun Devils -1400BYU Cougars -750This was my parlay today on them all to win straight up45 to win 30 Link to post Share on other sites
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