Tim Lincecum

[PMJackson21 0]

In this day and age the open market is only a friend to the 4-5 teams where money isn't an issue at all.

Well, money really isn't as issue for the Dodgers either; the problem is how they spend it.

[Sportsmack 0]

General,There is a great article in a recent Sports Illustrated about Lincecum. A must read for any baseball fan.....you learn a lot about why so many pitchers blow out their arms.As far as Lincecum v. Duscherer.....I guess I would vote for Linc mostly because he has been a stud from the second he got into the majors and he has done it for a longer period. It is criminal how little attention Dusch has gotten though.....I bet most people think the Cubs got Oakland' "best" pitcher when they traded for Harden.Is it possible the A's might keep Dusch? At some point you have to take a stand and keep somebody....thats what the Marlins did with Hanley. Maybe it is better to make that stand with a position player.

I'd still take Duke over Lincecum right now. Like I stated in another thread, Duke's ERA and WHIP are both currently considerably lower than Lincecum's. Sure, Lincecum is younger and has done it for a tad longer, but Duscherer has only just recently been thrown in the starting rotation. But his relief numbers before that were even amazing. And I also agree with the very little attention he's received, but as an A's fan I'm pretty used to that. If they're not on steroids and hitting a brazillion homers like back in the good ol' days, most A's players won't get the attention they deserve. Ryan Sweeney is proof of that. Here's a young kid who's batting .301, 30 RBI, 7 SB's, 3 HR's, and 31 Runs scored, and he was hurt for a bit. But because he's on the West Coast, he's not gonna get the coverage that an Evan Longoria is getting...even though he's batting like 26 points better. Ahhhh well, we're content being the underdog and the unknown's, but if we make the playoffs...watch the eff out.And read my lips..."THE A'S WILL NOT LOSE JUSTIN DUSCHERER!" I guaran-FREAKIN-tee it.that is all.

[PMJackson21 0]

Ryan Sweeney is proof of that. Here's a young kid who's batting .301, 30 RBI, 7 SB's, 3 HR's, and 31 Runs scored, and he was hurt for a bit. But because he's on the West Coast, he's not gonna get the coverage that an Evan Longoria is getting...even though he's batting like 26 points better.

Longoria's OPS - .861Sweeney's OPS - .762Batting average is overrated - Juan Pierre is a career .300 hitter.

[PMJackson21 0]

Also, on topic, LOL at Lincecum being out tonight because he has the flu or something. They were reporting on KNBR earlier that he was on a stretcher somewhere in NYC.

[gobears 0]

Longoria's OPS - .861Sweeney's OPS - .762Batting average is overrated - Juan Pierre is a career .300 hitter.

Also, Longoria's D is way above average (2nd in Fielding %, 4th in Range Factor) at a more critical fielding position. Rays' farm system is loaded too (Brignac, Beckham, Price, Davis, McGee, Jennings) so they could have staying power if they can keep their team together.As for the Lincecum vs Duke argument. I'd rather have Lincecum due his younger age (24 vs 30) and the fact that the Duke has had trouble staying healthy in the past. Finally, if you look at BABIP, Lincecum is at .319 vs the Duke's .213 so the Duke has been much luckier with regards to BABIP this season. They both have been awesome this season but I'd go for Lincecum first, even over Volquez (his high BB/IP rate of 4.28 is somewhat scary although Volquez does pitch in a hitters park). Volquez is actually older than Lincecum by a year.

[Sportsmack 0]

Longoria's OPS - .861Sweeney's OPS - .762Batting average is overrated - Juan Pierre is a career .300 hitter.

Not saying Sweeney is better, just that he's getting overlooked

Also, on topic, LOL at Lincecum being out tonight because he has the flu or something. They were reporting on KNBR earlier that he was on a stretcher somewhere in NYC.

Yeah I heard that too. I loved when D-Bruce said "and that splash you heard was every Giants fan driving simultaneously off the Golden Gate Bridge." Or something to that effect.

[Moneyball16 0]

The Freak>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Duke. Duke is good but he doesnt have the track record Tim has, the stuff Tim has and like PMJ already pointed out Duke has been extremely lucky with BABIP this year. Ill take action with anyone on Tim having a better ERA for the rest of the year or VORP or almost whatever metric you want to use.

[Sportsmack 0]

The Freak>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Duke. Duke is good but he doesnt have the track record Tim has, the stuff Tim has and like PMJ already pointed out Duke has been extremely lucky with BABIP this year. Ill take action with anyone on Tim having a better ERA for the rest of the year or VORP or almost whatever metric you want to use.

LOL @ The Freak...he's good, but he's not a freak lol. I pray that the reason he was sick is because he got wasted the night before, now that would be FREAKin awesome! That halo might have to be re-shined, no?...oh, and I'll take that action on ERA for the rest of the year.

[GeneralGeeWhiz 0]

LOL @ The Freak...he's good, but he's not a freak lol. I pray that the reason he was sick is because he got wasted the night before, now that would be FREAKin awesome! That hallo might have to be re-shined, no?...oh, and I'll take that action on ERA for the rest of the year.

lol @ a's fans. can you just admit that Lincecum is a sick pitcher?

[Sportsmack 0]

lol @ a's fans. can you just admit that Lincecum is a sick pitcher?

lol @ you lol'ing @ me lol'ing @ Lincecum...wait...what?

[DinkDonk 1]

I would take Lincecum's post AS break ERA vs. Duchscherer.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I would take Lincecum's post AS break ERA vs. Duchscherer.

Tim Lincecums BABIP- .319J-Duke's BABIP- .213It appears to me that Dukie's been significantly luckier than Lincy so far. Let's check the FIP's to get a gauge on real performance.Lincecum FIP - 2.76Duke FIP - 3.31Lincecum's the favorite. Duke should regress a little.Wang

[Moneyball16 0]

...oh, and I'll take that action on ERA for the rest of the year.

Ill bet anything up to 400 on Stars. Escrowed based on how much you want to bet.

[Sportsmack 0]

Tim Lincecums BABIP- .319J-Duke's BABIP- .213It appears to me that Dukie's been significantly luckier than Lincy so far. Let's check the FIP's to get a gauge on real performance.

Not sure that luck has a whole lot to do with it.

[Sportsmack 0]

Ill bet anything up to 400 on Stars. Escrowed based on how much you want to bet.

Sorry, I'm not that much of a balla lol.

[runthemover 39]

Not sure that luck has a whole lot to do with it.

well when I read the Wik's article on Batting Average on Balls In Play, it said, "BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season."Now, that makes sense but it seems like they just ignore the possibility that the guy with the high BABIP is just throwing stuff that is easier to hit. Either way, I don't think we can look at one guy with 319 and another with 210 or whatever they are and take too much into account with that. Especially when we consider it's only half a season. I don't really know too much about this stat as it's the first time I've thought about it. I have no idea what's extremely high and what's extremely low. If you're a betting man though, sometimes you have to stretch this a bit and take what little info you've got. If I knew more about this stat, I'd take more stock in it, but something better to look at could be that since Duke hasn't started regularly in some time, he could have a rough second half.Link is a strikeout pitcher. So you'd expect that people aren't hitting as many balls in play as other pitchers and those that are in play are more likely to be for hits. Whereas someone like Duke will have more balls hit in play but presumably have more groundouts and flyouts. So I'd expect his BABIP to be lower but I'm not sure greater than a .100 difference is expected.

[Moneyball16 0]

well when I read the Wik's article on Batting Average on Balls In Play, it said, "BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season."Now, that makes sense but it seems like they just ignore the possibility that the guy with the high BABIP is just throwing stuff that is easier to hit. Either way, I don't think we can look at one guy with 319 and another with 210 or whatever they are and take too much into account with that. Especially when we consider it's only half a season. I don't really know too much about this stat as it's the first time I've thought about it. I have no idea what's extremely high and what's extremely low. If you're a betting man though, sometimes you have to stretch this a bit and take what little info you've got. If I knew more about this stat, I'd take more stock in it, but something better to look at could be that since Duke hasn't started regularly in some time, he could have a rough second half.Link is a strikeout pitcher. So you'd expect that people aren't hitting as many balls in play as other pitchers and those that are in play are more likely to be for hits. Whereas someone like Duke will have more balls hit in play but presumably have more groundouts and flyouts. So I'd expect his BABIP to be lower but I'm not sure greater than a .100 difference is expected.

BABIP has been proven to be almost entirely random. There are a few exceptions like knuckleballers typically have lower BABIP and Tom Glavine has had a lower BABIP throughout his career than people have expected. Also when Brian Bannister was dominating at the beginning of the season alot of SABR inclined people thought that he could consistently keep his BABIP lower than most because he has really been a student of the science of pitching. But even these exemptions BABIPs wouldnt be predicted to be much lower than a typical pitcher.For the most part ERA is pretty useless over smallish sample sizes. So even after 30 starts a pitchers ERA can be largely based on luck or BABIP. When evaluating pitcher performance over these small sample sizes look at things like strikeout rate, walk rate, HR rate, Groundball%. Basically stuff that isnt affected by a pitchers defense. There are a number of stats out there that are better than ERA like QERA, DERA, FIP like Wang mentioned already and FIPx. These stats basically just take a pitchers K/9, BB/9, HR/9 or GB% instead of HR/9 and weight those numbers according to what they have found to most affect runs and plug them into an equation.

[Sportsmack 0]

well when I read the Wik's article on Batting Average on Balls In Play, it said, "BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season."Now, that makes sense but it seems like they just ignore the possibility that the guy with the high BABIP is just throwing stuff that is easier to hit. Either way, I don't think we can look at one guy with 319 and another with 210 or whatever they are and take too much into account with that. Especially when we consider it's only half a season. I don't really know too much about this stat as it's the first time I've thought about it. I have no idea what's extremely high and what's extremely low. If you're a betting man though, sometimes you have to stretch this a bit and take what little info you've got. If I knew more about this stat, I'd take more stock in it, but something better to look at could be that since Duke hasn't started regularly in some time, he could have a rough second half.Link is a strikeout pitcher. So you'd expect that people aren't hitting as many balls in play as other pitchers and those that are in play are more likely to be for hits. Whereas someone like Duke will have more balls hit in play but presumably have more groundouts and flyouts. So I'd expect his BABIP to be lower but I'm not sure greater than a .100 difference is expected.

Now correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm sure someone will lol), but wouldn't these two facts also point in direction that Lincecum would also tend to throw more pitches over the duration of the game? Hence, he will tend to go less innings than someone like Duke. As a matter of fact, here are the IP's for their last 6 games respectively...Lincecum: 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 6.0, 8.0Duchscherer: 8.0, 7.2, 8.0, 7.0, 9.0, 7.2Now to me, this would mean that if someone has a bad outing, like Lincecum did against the Royals on 6/22 where he went 6 innings with 5 ER's, and 8 K's...that being a strikeout pitcher in a game like this is going to come back to haunt you right? Your pitch count is going to be high, therefore less innings and a decent amount of runs scored. Not that Lincecum, or Duke for that matter, are going to have many games like this. But when you do, wouldn't you rather be a ground ball out pitcher, rather than a K pitcher? Bottom line is, I think being the ground ball/fly out pitcher is going to benefit Duke over the course of a year in terms of ERA.

[Moneyball16 0]

Your right about Tim not throwing alot of innings for someone of his caliber. Alot of it is because he often goes deeper in counts then most and some of it is because he is young and the Giants dont want to blow out his arm. But I think your overestimating Dukes ability to go deep into games. Alot of this leads back to him being extremely lucky when it comes to allowing hits which means that hes going to face less batters per inning which will helps his pitch count alot allowing him to go deeper into games. Its still very impressive how deep Duke has went into games though considering that he hasnt started much before this year. At the beginning of the year I would have predicted he would last less than 6 innings per start.Also your confusing Duke with a groundball pitcher. He has only had a 40% GB% this year when average is 47%. This is in line with his previous seasons too. This isnt a big deal though since in Oakland with its wide foul territories it helps there flyball pitchers alot more than it would in your average stadium. Also just for comparison Lincecum has a 45.1% GB% this year and a 47% last year.Lincecum is still superior though and the ability to get strikeouts is the most important ability a pitcher can have imo. I think if you want to make your argument for Halladay instead of Duke being a better pitcher than Lincecum based on your points you may be on to something though.

[Sportsmack 0]

Your right about Tim not throwing alot of innings for someone of his caliber. Alot of it is because he often goes deeper in counts then most and some of it is because he is young and the Giants dont want to blow out his arm. But I think your overestimating Dukes ability to go deep into games. Alot of this leads back to him being extremely lucky when it comes to allowing hits which means that hes going to face less batters per inning which will helps his pitch count alot allowing him to go deeper into games. Its still very impressive how deep Duke has went into games though considering that he hasnt started much before this year. At the beginning of the year I would have predicted he would last less than 6 innings per start.Also your confusing Duke with a groundball pitcher. He has only had a 40% GB% this year when average is 47%. This is in line with his previous seasons too. This isnt a big deal though since in Oakland with its wide foul territories it helps there flyball pitchers alot more than it would in your average stadium. Also just for comparison Lincecum has a 45.1% GB% this year and a 47% last year.Lincecum is still superior though and the ability to get strikeouts is the most important ability a pitcher can have imo. I think if you want to make your argument for Halladay instead of Duke being a better pitcher than Lincecum based on your points you may be on to something though.

How? Tell me why. You can't just say "he's superior" and expect me to just say "oh okay, you're right." Nothing in this post states why he's superior.edit: Also, why is the ability to get K's the most importan ability that a pitcher can have? I would argue that the most important ability a pitcher could have is to be able to use the least amount of pitches to get the max amount of outs...no? And K's use up a lot of pitches, j/s.

[PMJackson21 0]

Every time I see this thread title, I hear the KNBR morning show's Lincecum tribute song in my head lol...As Lincecum matures, one would hope (rather, Giants fans should hope) that he learns to pitch for the quick inning more often and not for the strike out. Brad Penny really started to look like he was 'getting it' after watching Maddux and talking to him a lot (including one game where Maddux called his pitches from the dugout...); I know the Giants won't be one of the teams interested in Maddux this time around, but it wouldn't hurt to have someone like him around TL in the future. Matt Cain could def benefit as well, along with Jonathan Sanchez.

[Sportsmack 0]

Every time I see this thread title, I hear the KNBR morning show's Lincecum tribute song in my head lol...As Lincecum matures, one would hope (rather, Giants fans should hope) that he learns to pitch for the quick inning more often and not for the strike out. Brad Penny really started to look like he was 'getting it' after watching Maddux and talking to him a lot (including one game where Maddux called his pitches from the dugout...); I know the Giants won't be one of the teams interested in Maddux this time around, but it wouldn't hurt to have someone like him around TL in the future. Matt Cain could def benefit as well, along with Jonathan Sanchez.

LOL me too...Also, I really like Sanchez...that dude is gonna be a stud. That's gonna be a sick 1,2 punch in the years to come. I also heard a rumor on KNBR today that Philly is seriously interested in Cain, it'll be interesting to see if the Giants comply.By the way Moneyball, I'm not saying that Lincecum is a not stud, but I'm also not completely sold that he's any better than Duke...other than the fact that he's younger and will prob. do it for more years. I'm just sick of Duke not getting any respect, when in fact his numbers thus far are better in 2008.

[Jackets1407 0]

Every time I see this thread title, I hear the KNBR morning show's Lincecum tribute song in my head lol...As Lincecum matures, one would hope (rather, Giants fans should hope) that he learns to pitch for the quick inning more often and not for the strike out. Brad Penny really started to look like he was 'getting it' after watching Maddux and talking to him a lot (including one game where Maddux called his pitches from the dugout...); I know the Giants won't be one of the teams interested in Maddux this time around, but it wouldn't hurt to have someone like him around TL in the future. Matt Cain could def benefit as well, along with Jonathan Sanchez.

Every young pitcher could benefit from having Maddux as a teammate teaching them how to prolong their careers by pitching to contact rather than for the K, and by teaching them how important preparation is to being a successful pitcher.

[CaneBrain 95]

edit: Also, why is the ability to get K's the most importan ability that a pitcher can have? I would argue that the most important ability a pitcher could have is to be able to use the least amount of pitches to get the max amount of outs...no? And K's use up a lot of pitches, j/s.

A few reasons. First, a strikeout is preferable to any other out. If a batter hits the ball, bad things can happen (hit, error, move a runner, etc). A strikeout is the surest out.Along those lines, strikeouts are incredibly valuable as rally-killers. Man on third, less than two outs.....it is important for a pitcher to be able to miss the bat to prevent the opposing team from scoring on a sac fly or groundout.Also, K/BB ratio is almost always a great indicator of success. Anecdotally, strikeout (power) pitchers seem to have the most success in the postseason. When the DBacks and Marlins broke up the Yankee dynasty they did it with power pitching (Zona = Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling.......FLA= Beckett, Penny, Burnett). The year the Cubs got close it was Prior and Wood. Those great Braves teams of the 90s? Maddux and Glavine were the regular season maniacs but if you look at the postseasons stats Smoltz, the power pitcher of the bunch, always had the most postseason success.As far as Dusch v. Linc.....the only thing that really separates them is 30 vs. 24. Linc is six years younger therefore you should want him over Dusch. That and Linc has a longer track record of starting pitching success.....though I dont think Dusch is going to fall off the map by any means.

[Moneyball16 0]

How? Tell me why. You can't just say "he's superior" and expect me to just say "oh okay, you're right." Nothing in this post states why he's superior.edit: Also, why is the ability to get K's the most importan ability that a pitcher can have? I would argue that the most important ability a pitcher could have is to be able to use the least amount of pitches to get the max amount of outs...no? And K's use up a lot of pitches, j/s.

Hes superior because he has been better than Duke this year based on QERA and FIP which has much better predictive power than ERA when predicting future ERA, he has a better track record since he was great last year too while Duke was hurt or in the bullpen, 100% of scouts would agree that Lincecum has better stuff than Duke and Tims younger. So based on all those things I feel its safe to say hes superior. Duke is fine and all but hes not a 2.00 ERA pitcher he is like a 3.90 ERA pitcher truthfully which has alot of value, but is just not someone who should be compared with Tim Lincecum.Ks are the most important ability a pitcher can have because a pitchers strikeout rate because out of all the stats like BB/9 GB% HR/9 it has the most predictive value in preventing runs. With 12 man pitching staffs nowadays using a low amount of pitches just isnt that important when you consider than striking someone out is a definite out compared to a ball in play which is only an out about 70% of the time and when it isnt an out it is often for extra bases.