Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 My lineup tonight... basically my best possible lineup: Artemi Panarin Ryan O'Reilly Jeff Skinner Aleksander Barkov Jordan Eberle Marcus Johansson Kris Letang P.K. Subban Rasmus Ristolainen Dougie Hamilton New Jersey F Bench: Marleau, Rask, Hagelin, Jenner, Sharp (IR), Bjugstad (IR) D Bench: Spurgeon, Streit, Beaulieu, Gelinas, Casey Nelson G Bench: San Jose No Game: Doan, Perreault (IR), C. Murphy Regular NHLers on the farm: N. Ehlers, R. Strome, B. Ritchie, N. Schmaltz, A. Duclair, R. Murray (IR) Guys who have played in the NHL on the farm: A. Slepyshev, T. Rattie, J. Morrow, O. Kase, D. Sprong (IR), J. Dickinson, P. Aberg Other players on the farm: O. Lindblom, C. Grundstrom, B. Kichton, N. Prokhorkin, D. Zharkov Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 wow, I just realized....my team is better than yours. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 I think I screwed up not taking Panarin for Marner when I had the chance, but I honestly could not do it. Im feeling a little gunshy and just so confused on what to do with my team. Matthews+Marner together make it kind of great, but also difficult to know what to do. So early still. I know... dude I was totally gunshy too. Took me like 3 weeks to pull the trigger, and I knew you were in on it too. I thought you'd be more likely to pull the trigger since you do have Matthews. I have a lot of worries about Panarin, but he's got 89 points in 91 NHL games... that's pretty well Nylander or Marner's peak (or really, 99.9% of all NHLer's peaks)... The Russian factor scares me, the Kane factor worries me, though he has been just fine with Anisimov and Hossa lately. That he's not signed for next season worries me... and his age worries me... he probably peaked last year, or maybe this year and starts to decrease his production now that he turned 25. Took a hell of a lot of thinking to pull the trigger and get over my bias towards players I drafted. I guess my alternative was to just call up Nylander, but I don't know. Maybe I should have done that. Time will tell, but given how much I agonized over this, it's probably even enough and whatever happens happens and it won't matter. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 wow, I just realized....my team is better than yours. You think? I think my defense is pretty clearly better than yours. Forwards are close. My forwards are hard to gauge right now. They seem to be either vastly over-performing, or vastly under-performing. Not really any in between. Maybe a handful of guys at expectation (O'Reilly at 0.600 and Coyle at 0.500). More guys underachieving than overachieving, though. You've got a great set of forwards, though, so you probably have the edge there. Goalies are probably a wash. You did really well in the auction, while I did poorly. My strategy backfired on me and I ended up missing out on any decent defense (Streit at 5.75 is brutal, but he was all that was left), and I set my upset limit for an impact forward too low and the best I could do was O'Reilly. I had a lot of firepower to replace from the season before (Marchand, Hornqvist, Sharp, Bergeron)... I got Sharp back, but he's part of the cadre of underachieving vets. Not surprised to see them take a step back, but was hoping one or two would keep up their previous numbers. Marleau, Doan, Sharp... but again, along with Hagelin... I really didn't do what I wanted to do in the auction this year. Our division should be pretty interesting this year. I think we all think we have great shots at the title. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I might be underrating your vets, but I really dont like Sharp, Marleau, Doan to do anything this year. I think they are on a big decline this year. Do your numbers, I think you got me beat on D for sure, but I think my FWD clearly beat you, and maybe by greater than the D diff. Just my guess, but maybe I value my top 6-9 more than most would. I also have some serious talent on the farm that I just dont know what to do with. You're right though, our division is really crazy. Probably Rich wins it though, cause thats how hockey works. lol Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked about those three. I literally had no plans for them. I had money set aside for the auction that I wasn't going to spend so I could call up a handful of players and then when Marleau and Doan were ~$2 each, I ended up deciding to grab them and wait on the farmies. Unfortunately, none of my farm guys are doing anything either. Ehlers has been alright, Strome has been meh, Duclair invisible, Murray injured again, Rattie needs to traded then some other guys languishing on 3rd/4th lines. Sharp I still have high hopes for. I think he'll be a 0.450 guy again or so, which is very solid depth. Dallas scores a lot and he'll be in a top six role when healthy, even if it's just 2nd PP time. ==== Funny, I did try to run the numbers, but I don't have last years stats set up in my spreadsheet so I couldn't easily run a comparison with just last year's guys... or maybe I can... one sec. I think the sample is too small to use this season's stats so far. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Well, here's a comparison based on last season's stats only. (The numbers that are red/negative in the Difference column denote an edge to the Rocket) Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 0.500+ forwards: 9 to 5 for Arp. That's deadly. I'm a huge believer in having that depth like that. It's why my team was so good the last two seasons. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 can you teach an old man how to make sexy spreadsheets like that? Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 can you teach an old man how to make sexy spreadsheets like that? Sure, here's the code I used to populate the TM field after filling in the player name manually: =if(isna(VLOOKUP($B4,'Raw Stats 15-16'!$A$1:$AK$1000,2,false)),"",VLOOKUP($B4,'Raw Stats 15-16'!$A$1:$AV$1000,2,false)) Does this help? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Sure, here's the code I used to populate the TM field after filling in the player name manually: =if(isna(VLOOKUP($B4,'Raw Stats 15-16'!$A$1:$AK$1000,2,false)),"",VLOOKUP($B4,'Raw Stats 15-16'!$A$1:$AV$1000,2,false)) Does this help? hmm..I can play around with it...Looks like gibberish but I think I know where the codes go.. Thanks Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Well, the biggest thing to note is that I have another sheet (titled Raw Stats 15-16) that has a table of every player and their 15-16 stats. The rest is just a simple vlookup to get the stats when you type in the player's name. The IF and ISNA statement is just in case the player doesn't exist it'll return blanks instead of error messages so it keeps it cleaner. I also have a Raw Stats 16-17 page that automatically updates the stats every day, but it's super glitchy with Google Sheets and not worth worrying about. lol. The colour in the PPPG row is just conditional formatting based on the value using a colour scale. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Glad I'm not the only one not totally convinced they made the right move lol. If Nylander wasn't on the farm or if Panarin was still on the farm, I wouldn't have made the trade. Nylander's timeline just fits better for me, I doubt he out scores Panarin over the next 5 years Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Trust me, I wasn't holding out to try to get more out of you, lol. I'm scared Panarin is gonna bolt or just be a flash in the pan or something... Nylander seems legit and I have a weird obsession with talent I've drafted. You'll notice half of my roster is comprised of players I either drafted or traded for and promoted from my farm. Drafted (9): Skinner, Rask, Coyle, Barkov, Jenner, Bjugstad, Subban, Ristolainen, Murphy Promoted from farm (acquired via trade, did not draft) (4): Johansson, Eberle, Hamilton, Beaulieu I "discovered" O'Reilly too. I picked him up as a $1 free agent early in his rookie year, signed him, and traded him to Jay way back when. That doesn't really count, though. Plus Gelinas and Nelson are $1 pickups that have never been on another FCHL team. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Trust me, I wasn't holding out to try to get more out of you, lol. I'm scared Panarin is gonna bolt or just be a flash in the pan or something... Nylander seems legit This was exactly my thinking in my talks regarding Panarin for Marner. Honestly, Im not 100% convinced Panarin will greatly outscore Marner/Nylander this year, let alone next couple. OR, Marner/Nylander turn into not much, and Panarin keeps up top 10 NHL scoring. No idea on this one, and frankly, usually I have a strong sense of players....these guys I dont. I think I really like Panarin though, and may regret this, this year at least. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I also have Panarin on another longish term fantasy keeper league, so I can still capitalize on his production. I was pretty much all-in on Panarin last year. Took him in the first round in the fchl draft. Picked him up late in the aforementioned pool. Drafted him in the 14th round in my work 1-year points pool and he carried me to a championship there. All in all I think I did fairly well on my Panarin equity, regardless of how this trade turns out. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 This was exactly my thinking in my talks regarding Panarin for Marner. Honestly, Im not 100% convinced Panarin will greatly outscore Marner/Nylander this year, let alone next couple. OR, Marner/Nylander turn into not much, and Panarin keeps up top 10 NHL scoring. No idea on this one, and frankly, usually I have a strong sense of players....these guys I dont. I think I really like Panarin though, and may regret this, this year at least. Yeah. I don't know what the hell is going to happen, so **** it, let's make Dubey happy. I didn't really consider this at the time, but given how close our teams seem to be, I'm happy that I got him and you didn't. Obviously either of us could have called up our Nylander/Marner to make up for it, but we shall see. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I also have Panarin on another longish term fantasy keeper league, so I can still capitalize on his production. I was pretty much all-in on Panarin last year. Took him in the first round in the fchl draft. Picked him up late in the aforementioned pool. Drafted him in the 14th round in my work 1-year points pool and he carried me to a championship there. All in all I think I did fairly well on my Panarin equity, regardless of how this trade turns out. If I traded for Panarin, it would have been like trading Marner for Stepan. ya Zach, part of my process was the thought that I would rather you not get him. But the thought that I wasnt sure he was going to make a huge diff over just calling up one of my Leafs, made me rethink it. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 I think if Nylander were like 22 instead of 20, I'd probably have just called him up, but I'd like to win this season. Panarin seems like a better bet this year, but it's hard to say. Panarin should also score more than goals than Nylander, who I think will trend to be a more assist guy. Not sure about Marner. It'll be interesting to see. 89 pts in 91 games is kind of wow though, and his KHL numbers are nasty too. On the other hand, this could be the great turning point in Panarin's career where he develops chronic back problems and retires at 26 after going pointless for the rest of the season, when he's not on the IR. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 I made a homer trade. Toronto Rocket gets: Sidney Crosby ($24.75/UFA) Dennis Seidenberg ($1.00/RFA) $19.50 16/17 cash $5.50 17/18 cash The Ales get: 2017 1st round pick (Toronto Rocket) Nick Schmaltz (farm) Shane Doan ($2.25/RFA) Patrick Marleau ($3.00/RFA) Eric Gelinas ($1.00/1.00/1.00/UFA) $0.50 18/19 cash Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 Updated roster: Blue = farm player Red = injured Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 We'll probably see some call-ups later in the season, depending on how lineups shake out, and how Sharp is when he returns from his injury. We're tight up against the cap right now, but Spurgeon or Streit or Sharp could be dropped, and they can be replaced on a 3-1 basis since I have 2 open roster spots right now. A scenario like this could happen: Drop Spurgeon ($4.00) Add Ehlers ($2.00), Duclair ($1.00), random $1.00 player. All depends on who steps up from the farm, or who falters from the main squad. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 Actually, a Hagelin for Ehlers drop makes a lot of sense right now... hmm Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 I made a homer trade. Toronto Rocket gets: Sidney Crosby ($24.75/UFA) Dennis Seidenberg ($1.00/RFA) $19.50 16/17 cash $5.50 17/18 cash The Ales get: 2017 1st round pick (Toronto Rocket) Nick Schmaltz (farm) Shane Doan ($2.25/RFA) Patrick Marleau ($3.00/RFA) Eric Gelinas ($1.00/1.00/1.00/UFA) $0.50 18/19 cash Curious to hear some opinions on this trade... Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 I made a homer trade. Toronto Rocket gets: Sidney Crosby ($24.75/UFA) Dennis Seidenberg ($1.00/RFA) $19.50 16/17 cash $5.50 17/18 cash The Ales get: 2017 1st round pick (Toronto Rocket) Nick Schmaltz (farm) Shane Doan ($2.25/RFA) Patrick Marleau ($3.00/RFA) Eric Gelinas ($1.00/1.00/1.00/UFA) $0.50 18/19 cash Im a solid second on these trades. lol Link to post Share on other sites
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