offsuitbluff 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 if you hold AK how many times will you make a pair after all the cards are out.my guess is 60% of the time.and when you have AK vs a pair, you are closer to even becuase the pair has two outs to catch a three of a kind. is anyone good with math that could explain this? Link to post Share on other sites
allinbluff35 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 AK flops at least an A or a K 32.4% of the time, that's all i know Link to post Share on other sites
knght311 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 if you hold AK how many times will you make a pair after all the cards are out.my guess is 60% of the time.and when you have AK vs a pair, you are closer to even becuase the pair has two outs to catch a three of a kind. is anyone good with math that could explain this?I would do itlike this:3 aces, 3 kings...5 cards to flop, 6 x 5 = 30,30/50(unseen cards) = 60%...so yeah...you and I are on the same track-Matt Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Ben 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 The chances of improving to a pair on the flop is 29%, not sure about overall, but probably about 20% more so about 50% Link to post Share on other sites
BetItAll33 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 odds that you will not make a pair on the flop = (44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48) = 67%conversely, the odds that you will pair are 1 - .67 or 32%If you extend this to the turn and the river, you get:(44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48) * (41/47) * (40/46) = .512, or 51.2% that you will not pair up.1 - .51 = about 49% of the time, you will (at least) pair up by the river.I guess an 8 followed by a ) is a sunglasses smiley....who knew? Link to post Share on other sites
offsuitbluff 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Author Share Posted April 26, 2005 heres somthing interesting too.pocket tens isn't a "coing flip" against AK, it actually is closer to 60% favorite then it is a coing flips.its about a 57% favortite i believe, my guess for the reason why is becuase you cant make a striaght without a ten or a five and cant make a striaght including your AK without a ten. less tens in the deck would mean you have to hit a higher pair.i'm not sure about any of this, its just my own logic, i'm not positive its right or not. Link to post Share on other sites
offsuitbluff 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Author Share Posted April 26, 2005 also, I dont really like calling all-ins with AK becuase your never really a favorite against any hand except for a weaker ace. Of course there are alot of variables that would allow you to call with AK, and it would be a no-brainer, but i like to keep in mind that if i wanted to flip coins, i'd flip coins or play roulette. If i want to play good poker i'll push with AK or try to find a better spot.I'm trying to draw the line between being agresive and putting myself in a unadvatagous situations... Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Ben 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 The true beauty of AK is that you can be aggressive since you're at nearly even in chances against anything except AA or KK. So while you might not be a huge favored to win, you can be aggressive and pick up pots and if they call you then you have a pretty good chance of winning still. Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 you have a 48.74% chance of hitting a pair with AK (provided all are live) Link to post Share on other sites
BetItAll33 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 you have a 48.74% chance of hitting a pair with AK (provided all are live)nope, if you knew that they were all live, the chance would be much greater. These numbers assume nothing. You only know 2 cards. Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 you have a 48.74% chance of hitting a pair with AK (provided all are live)nope, if you knew that they were all live, the chance would be much greater. These numbers assume nothing. You only know 2 cards.sorry but you're wrongpair cards cards left chance of hitting it chance of not hitting it 6 50 12.00% 88.00% 6 49 12.24% 87.76% 6 48 12.50% 87.50% 6 47 12.77% 87.23% 6 46 13.04% 86.96% 51.26% <----total chance of not pairing 48.74% <-----chance of pairing it Link to post Share on other sites
GreenLizard 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 you have a 48.74% chance of hitting a pair with AK (provided all are live)nope, if you knew that they were all live, the chance would be much greater. These numbers assume nothing. You only know 2 cards....48.74% <-----chance of pairing itHe already said that.He's taking issue with your statement that this assumes all cards are live (which is incorrect).If you know that all your aces and kings are live (i.e. they are not in your opponent's hand), then your chances of hitting are greater than 48.7%. Link to post Share on other sites
PhishForChips 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 ALWAYS raise preflop with A/K! Get those rags the F out of there! Link to post Share on other sites
iveyfan30 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 im not sure what the exact % is...but it defenitley decreases when i have ak...... also when i have kk the % that an ace hits the flop is 100..same when i have qq... Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Patton 0 Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 im not sure what the exact % is...but it defenitley decreases when i have ak...... also when i have kk the % that an ace hits the flop is 100..same when i have qq...agreed Link to post Share on other sites
BetItAll33 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 you have a 48.74% chance of hitting a pair with AK (provided all are live)nope, if you knew that they were all live, the chance would be much greater. These numbers assume nothing. You only know 2 cards.sorry but you're wrongpair cards cards left chance of hitting it chance of not hitting it 6 50 12.00% 88.00% 6 49 12.24% 87.76% 6 48 12.50% 87.50% 6 47 12.77% 87.23% 6 46 13.04% 86.96% 51.26% <----total chance of not pairing 48.74% <-----chance of pairing itSorry Norman, but lizard got it right. 48.74% is correct, but not provided that "all are live". Just imagine if you were dealt AK, and you knew that all the other aces and kings were live (i.e. hadn't been folded and weren't in somebody elses hand) You would essentially be playing with a 32 card deck at this point, with 6 outs to make a pair. Odds would be much better than 48.74% at this point. Link to post Share on other sites
amarillotg 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 according to one of my super fish friends every board will come with either an Ace or a King. I'll give out his screen name if he ever decides to play online. Link to post Share on other sites
Eclypse 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 If your question is "how often will at least one Ace or King hit the flop when you hold AK," then the answer is 32.43%Allinbluff got it right. I don't know what the rest of you are smoking. Link to post Share on other sites
dms26 3 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 If your question is "how often will at least one Ace or King hit the flop when you hold AK," then the answer is 32.43%Allinbluff got it right. I don't know what the rest of you are smoking.That's not what the OP asked, he said after all 5 cards are out. Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Ben 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 If your question is "how often will at least one Ace or King hit the flop when you hold AK," then the answer is 32.43%Allinbluff got it right. I don't know what the rest of you are smoking.That's your chance of catching a pair or better on the flop. Not an A or a K. Link to post Share on other sites
Eclypse 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 If your question is "how often will at least one Ace or King hit the flop when you hold AK," then the answer is 32.43%Allinbluff got it right. I don't know what the rest of you are smoking.That's not what the OP asked, he said after all 5 cards are out.You are correct. Sorry about that.You will have hit at least one ace or one king 48.74% of the time when all the cards are out. Link to post Share on other sites
Eclypse 0 Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 If your question is "how often will at least one Ace or King hit the flop when you hold AK," then the answer is 32.43%Allinbluff got it right. I don't know what the rest of you are smoking.That's your chance of catching a pair or better on the flop. Not an A or a K.As I stated originally, that is the chance that AT LEAST one ace or one king will hit the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
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