CobaltBlue 662 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Serious stats question...Hypothetically, let's say I find someone to flip a coin for even money. I can parlay some of these trials.I decide to flip the coin ten times.I bet thusly:$25 on Flip 1$10 on Flip 3$25 on Flip 5$10 on Flip 7$10 on Flip 1 & 2 together (pays 3-1)$5 on Flips 4-6 together (pays 7-1)$5 on Flips 7-10 together (pays 15-1)$10 on Flips 3, 5, 9 (pays 7-1)What do my win/loss probabilities look like? Obviously, the most money I'll lose is $100. That will happen if I pick every odd # flip incorrectly, which occurs 3.125% of the time (.5^5). If I pick every flip correctly, I'll win $280. That'll happen very rarely (.5^10). However, there's some sort of "distribution curve" at work here, but I've forgotten how one would generate it.(I think David's most likely to answer this question...but someone else might want to take a look at it too.) Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 I think it will be extremely tedious to put those into a distribution.I really can't think of an easy way of going about it. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 That looks like work, Cobalt. I'll take a look tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
davchi0049 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Serious stats question...Hypothetically, let's say I find someone to flip a coin for even money. I can parlay some of these trials.I decide to flip the coin ten times.I bet thusly:$25 on Flip 1$10 on Flip 3$25 on Flip 5$10 on Flip 7$10 on Flip 1 & 2 together (pays 3-1)$5 on Flips 4-6 together (pays 7-1)$5 on Flips 7-10 together (pays 15-1)$10 on Flips 3, 5, 9 (pays 7-1)What do my win/loss probabilities look like? Obviously, the most money I'll lose is $100. That will happen if I pick every odd # flip incorrectly, which occurs 3.125% of the time (.5^5). If I pick every flip correctly, I'll win $280. That'll happen very rarely (.5^10). However, there's some sort of "distribution curve" at work here, but I've forgotten how one would generate it.(I think David's most likely to answer this question...but someone else might want to take a look at it too.)How could this be anything other than =EV?Let's assume you win more often than you lose, say you win 50+x% of the time (and lose 50-x%), this would mean that the person that you are fliping against would win 50-x% of the time. However, clearly your opponent must win just as often as you do, since he's playing with the same structure as you are and there's no skill involved. Therefore we have that 50 - x = 50 + x <=> x= 0, so you should win 50% of the time, if you're not cheating or anything.EDIT: you probably mean how often you'll win/lose a certain amount... working that out looks really tedious. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 BUMP! I haven't seen the BAW this low in awhile. Leave it to a crazy math question to drop the thread off the map. Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 I just spent 6 hours helping someone move. Last time I moved I paid someone to do it for me, and yet I end up moving someone else's shit.I haven't had a workout like that in years... Link to post Share on other sites
Andromeda 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 I just spent 6 hours helping someone move. Last time I moved I paid someone to do it for me, and yet I end up moving someone else's shit.I haven't had a workout like that in years...this is EXACTLY how I dislocated my tail bone...at least it was my own shit and not someone else's.I would totally rather be playing poker right now. Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 this is EXACTLY how I dislocated my tail bone...at least it was my own shit and not someone else's.I would totally rather be playing poker right now.the great part about online poker, you don't even have to see a single human to play poker. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Serious stats question...Hypothetically, let's say I find someone to flip a coin for even money. I can parlay some of these trials.I decide to flip the coin ten times.I bet thusly:$25 on Flip 1$10 on Flip 3$25 on Flip 5$10 on Flip 7$10 on Flip 1 & 2 together (pays 3-1)$5 on Flips 4-6 together (pays 7-1)$5 on Flips 7-10 together (pays 15-1)$10 on Flips 3, 5, 9 (pays 7-1)What do my win/loss probabilities look like? Obviously, the most money I'll lose is $100. That will happen if I pick every odd # flip incorrectly, which occurs 3.125% of the time (.5^5). If I pick every flip correctly, I'll win $280. That'll happen very rarely (.5^10). However, there's some sort of "distribution curve" at work here, but I've forgotten how one would generate it.(I think David's most likely to answer this question...but someone else might want to take a look at it too.) BUMP! I haven't seen the BAW this low in awhile. Leave it to a crazy math question to drop the thread off the map.Agree. Stop impedeing the success of this post with mathematics Cobalt! I try to get sexually explicit conversations going about certain "hairy" (yes that is a pun, ftw) situations people have been in and you kill the momentum with MATH.the great part about online poker, you don't even have to see a single human to play poker. , the American Dream. Link to post Share on other sites
CobaltBlue 662 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 I think it will be extremely tedious to put those into a distribution.I really can't think of an easy way of going about it. That looks like work, Cobalt.Yeah...I was worried that was the case. I suppose it's not hugely important. I was just wondering if anyone remembered a "simple" way to do it.EDIT: you probably mean how often you'll win/lose a certain amount... working that out looks really tedious.Right. Like plugging it in, we'd find that we lose $70 20% of the time or something (I have no idea if that's even close).I suppose we could do a simpler example to get a feel for approaching it...4 flips$5 on Flip 1$20 on Flip 3$5 on Flip 4$10 on Flip 1-2$10 on Flip 3-412.5% of the time, we'll lose $50. 6.25% of the time, we'll win $110. So now we just need to break down the other 81.25%. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Tskillz plays 4 big pots in a session.Twice he puts it in as a 80-20 favorite.Once he puts it in as a 10-90 dog.Once he puts it in as a 58-42 favorite.100% of the time he loses. Link to post Share on other sites
No_Neck 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Tskillz plays 4 big pots in a session.Twice he puts it in as a 80-20 favorite.Once he puts it in as a 10-90 dog.Once he puts it in as a 58-42 favorite.100% of the time he loses.then what are you doing here? you can only cash in sklansky dollars at a poker table. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 then what are you doing here? you can only cash in sklansky dollars at a poker table.I believe Sklansky dollars are actually the term he uses for each dollar in revenue he made from ToP. Link to post Share on other sites
davchi0049 0 Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 4 flips$5 on Flip 1$20 on Flip 3$5 on Flip 4$10 on Flip 1-2 $10 on Flip 3-4 12.5% of the time, we'll lose $50. 6.25% of the time, we'll win $110. So now we just need to break down the other 81.25%.I'm confused, how can we win $110? Assuming 3-1 on the two flip ones, can't we win 5+20+5+30+30 = 90?Anyway, here is what I got (this one is much simpler):(1/8)% = -$50(3/16)% = -$40(1/16)% = -$30(1/8)% = $-10(1/8)% = +-$0(1/16)% = +$10(3/16)% = +$40(1/16)% = +$50(1/16)% = +$90It works out to be =EV. I did this the brute force way though. I don't think there is a simple solution, this problem is based off discrete mathematics, and the problem appear to be NP (non polynomial). Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I promised Zach a guaranteed 12-game parlay:Cardinals +9, Ari/Was over 36, Falcons +9, Buffalo +3, Tampa +2.5, Tam/Det under 44.5, Houston +1, Oakland -1, NYJ/Cin under 47.5, Denver +3.5, Pit/Den over 39, Indy -3SHIIIIIIIIP IT Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I promised Zach a guaranteed 12-game parlay:Tampa +2.5, Denver +3.5Um no, um noalso are u playing on stars i played against someone last nite with that buc avatar Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 Um no, um noalso are u playing on stars i played against someone last nite with that buc avatarTake back what you said about the Bucs and I'll answer your question! Link to post Share on other sites
CobaltBlue 662 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I'm confused, how can we win $110? Assuming 3-1 on the two flip ones, can't we win 5+20+5+30+30 = 90?You're correct, sir. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 then what are you doing here? you can only cash in sklansky dollars at a poker table.Don't you guys get it? David Sklansky is just getting everyone acclimated to the term "Sklansky Dollars" so that when the time comes for him to take over the world with his telekinetic and telepathic powers and super mathematical problem solving skill and changes the worlds currency into Sklanksy Dollars, everyone on this forum will already be a millionaire and we won't put up a fight against his maniacal oppression.OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE, FOR CHRIST'S SAKE. Link to post Share on other sites
Jordan 1 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 Based on my Vegas experience with Zach and Acid, this is a way-too-likely scenario. Except Acid won't get drunk and will go to bed by, like, 8:45.I pick good people to stake.lol- Jordan Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 Take back what you said about the Bucs and I'll answer your question!I'm sorry Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I'm sorry LOL.It wasn't me, no. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 LOL.It wasn't me, no. It made sense to me. How many Buc fans can there be? 12ish? How many of them play poker? How many stack of to krup with Q high over and over again? (inferred) Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 It made sense to me. How many Buc fans can there be? 12ish? How many of them play poker? How many stack of to krup with Q high over and over again? (inferred)very perceptive, dude played like I envision Naismith to play. 400 bb stack to 50 to 150 to 300 to 0. Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 very perceptive, dude played like I envision Naismith to play. 400 bb stack to 50 to 150 to 300 to 0.Even though I'm retired, this is very similar to how my session went last night. 200 to 400 to 100 to 300 to 80 to 500. No "to 0" part, although that's usually correct.Go Bucs! Link to post Share on other sites
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