Pretty Good Start (fr) (2/4)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bodog 2/4 NLHE (9-handed)UTG+1 $392MP1 $544Cobalt $442SB $500Cobalt is MP2 w/ K K . UTG+1 and SB are both quite loose and bad. Like, I saw SB limp in EP a long time ago with 82o. Generally speaking, he's a passive calling station. I've played with him several hours on a couple of tables and he's only raised pre-flop 3 times (with one re-raise hours ago). For the PTers in the crowd, he's probably something like 85/1/.2. Not much of a read on MP1.Pre-flop:1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $8, MP1 calls, Cobalt raises to $48, 3 folds, SB goes all-in for $500, 3 folds, Cobalt ?

[Acid_Knight 2]

I call.I assign him exactly KQo because I am totally dominating it and thus, when I call and he tables his hand, I will know that I have nothing to worry about.Also, any particular reason for the raise to $48. The incriment seems high and this almost means that you HAVE to call his push since it definitely doesn't look like your range is polarized to AA or KK here and thus, he can more confidently push a wide range of hands. Assuming he notices these things of course.

[shinzilla 0]

Bodog 2/4 NLHE (9-handed)UTG+1 $392MP1 $544Cobalt $442SB $500Cobalt is MP2 w/ K K . UTG+1 and SB are both quite loose and bad. Like, I saw SB limp in EP a long time ago with 82o. Generally speaking, he's a passive calling station. I've played with him several hours on a couple of tables and he's only raised pre-flop 3 times (with one re-raise hours ago). For the PTers in the crowd, he's probably something like 85/1/.2. Not much of a read on MP1.Pre-flop:1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $8, MP1 calls, Cobalt raises to $48, 3 folds, SB goes all-in for $500, 3 folds, Cobalt ?

With stack sizes the way they are, I believe it would be mathematically incorrect for you to fold... however, those PT numbers are scary. I wouldn't like it, but I'd call.

[Lavitz 0]

Wow, 1% raise percentage is a bit insane. I probably call just because villain is generally a moron and morons do stupid things. If these PT stats are over an extended amount of hands (ie, a few hundred) then I seriously think about folding. We don't have that much invested.Also, just noticed it is full ring which makes the argument a little stronger for folding. Hmmm.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Wow, 1% raise percentage is a bit insane. I probably call just because villain is generally a moron and morons do stupid things. If these PT stats are over an extended amount of hands (ie, a few hundred) then I seriously think about folding. We don't have that much invested.Also, just noticed it is full ring which makes the argument a little stronger for folding. Hmmm.

I call just because there's little logical explanation for any of his play.

[sabes99 0]

i'm just not folding kings here...i think you may have dug some of your own grave here by over-raising it

[MrNiceGuy 0]

Interesting.After going through the thought process below, I've decided that given the information we have, I think folding is the slightly better option. (But some specific information could easily change my decision to a call; for example, if we had any specific indication that he would likely not make a big reraise with AA/KK, or if I've seen him make a sizeable reraise with AK or QQ, then I'd call. On the other hand, if I've seen him cold-call on a previous hand with QQ, and it appeared to be based on caution rather than as a trap, then I'm very comfortable with a fold).If we call, we're risking $394 to win $510. So we're getting about 1.3-1 pot odds. Calling is break-even if we win win 43.5% of the time. (A couple quick notes: we're about 47% against a range of AA,KK, and AK, and of course we're almost exactly 50% against a range of AA,KK, and QQ. If you remove half of the AK's from the first range, we're at 33%, and if you remove half of the QQ's from the second range, we're at 40% Against AA,KK, and half the AK's and QQ's, we're at 45%).I think before we can make a decision, we need to ask some questions. First, can this possibly be a bluff? I think we can say no with virtual certainty; villain has not given any hint that he is capable of such a play, and if he were going to pick a spot for a big bluff, this hardly seems like the spot he would pick.So, that leaves legitimate hands. I'm asking myself -Would he do this with AA?Unless we have an indication otherwise from specific hands he's played, I think we have to figure that he might push with AA here.Would he do this with AK?You get dealt AK, on average, a bit more than once every 100 hands. I'm assuming we've played several hundred hands with this guy, and he's only made 3 or 4 raises. Unless we have an indication that he usually does not raise with big pairs, I have to assume that he generally not raising with AK, so I'm not expecting him to re-re-raise with it. But I'm only really comfortable with this assumption if I've seen him cold-call raises with AK in this past.Would he do this with QQ?This is really the key question. If we think that he is much more likely to push with AA than with QQ, and if we don't think he'd push with AK, then we have to fold. But if we think that he's almost as likely to push with QQ as he is with AA, then we have to call (given the overlay, and the possibility that he could also be pushing AK,JJ,etc.). If we think he's somewhat more likely to push with AA than QQ, then we can only call if we think there's also some chance he might push with worse hands. If we have only his history to go on, then this is tricky; it's certainly possible that he's gone a few hundred hands without getting dealt many AA,KK, or QQ hands (you get each of these once every 221 hands). With no other information that the fact that his raises are very infrequent, I'm going to assume that he is much more likely to push with AA than QQ.

[cwik 0]

If your question is if it is a snap call or should you slow roll it, I am probably beating the villain into this pot. Guys with 1% a preflop raise percentage do weird things with AA, which doesn't include shovefests.

[TraptSteve 0]

With stack sizes the way they are, I believe it would be mathematically incorrect for you to fold... however, those PT numbers are scary. I wouldn't like it, but I'd call.

Well, I would like it and I'd call.This isn't an opponent you've played live with millions of times and know that he/she wouldn't do it without AA. THis isn't a situation where the the pot has already been raised and reraised. The villain just shoved in. I think the hero is well ahead of his range.

[BuffDan 0]

I don't know much about these stakes or this player... but people love to push huge with small to medium pairs, especially bad players trying to save themselves from having to think about overcards hitting post flop.

[Lavitz 0]

I don't know much about these stakes or this player... but people love to push huge with small to medium pairs, especially bad players trying to save themselves from having to think about overcards hitting post flop.

Usually not people who have been raising 1% of their hands.I'm on the fence with this one. If villian was like 15/1 then I lean towards fold because he is uber tight all around but this guy sees 85% of flops which means he is a donkey. Donkeys do stupid things so this makes me lean towards a call.Nonetheless the most important stat is his raise percentage of 1. I think it is important to know how many hands this stat is over though because if it was over 500 hands it would be more reliable obviously then over, say, 100 hands.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Nonetheless the most important stat is his raise percentage of 1. I think it is important to know how many hands this stat is over though because if it was over 500 hands it would be more reliable obviously then over, say, 100 hands.

Just guessing, but it's probably about 250-300 hands.

[BuffDan 0]

Usually not people who have been raising 1% of their hands.

Fair enough.

Donkeys do stupid things so this makes me lean towards a call.

This I think is an important point.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Donkeys do stupid things so this makes me lean towards a call.

You are correct, sir. As I let my time bank run down, I prepared my state of mind to run into AA while pleading for AK. I was quite pleasantly surprised when instead he flipped over JJ and the board bricked out.I suppose I posted this as further validation for the no-fold KK PF crowd. People do some crazy things sometimes.

[mtdesmoines 3]

You are correct, sir. As I let my time bank run down, I prepared my state of mind to run into AA while pleading for AK. I was quite pleasantly surprised when instead he flipped over JJ and the board bricked out.I suppose I posted this as further validation for the no-fold KK PF crowd. People do some crazy things sometimes.

"I call just because there's little logical explanation for any of his play."

[CobaltBlue 662]

"I call just because there's little logical explanation for any of his play."

Yup. Sorry...didn't mean a slight. Just quoted the most recent person that said it, but I should've looked up.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Yup. Sorry...didn't mean a slight. Just quoted the most recent person that said it, but I should've looked up.

Didn't take it as one. I love players who play illogically.

[RhinestoneCowboy 2]

If your question is if it is a snap call or should you slow roll it, I am probably beating the villain into this pot. Guys with 1% a preflop raise percentage do weird things with AA, which doesn't include shovefests.

I thought this was a great point. Nice call.

[BrandonPL 0]

Yeah I've seen that play so many times with JJ or TT, especially against someone who over-raised the pot as much as you did. He thinks you have a 'trouble' hand that you just want to pick up the blinds with (such as 99, TT, AQ) and he thinks he is getting all his money in ahead but doesn't want to race against two overs. A donktard play.