Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 5/10 NL @ The Wynn Las VegasBackground: The Hero has a capable and tricky image. Villain has similar image. There is one noteworthy hand between the Hero and the Villain that happened an hour prior to this hand.That hand, Villain raises to $50 in EP and gets 3 callers including Hero in the BB with A 9 . The flop is K 8 2 and it's checked to Villain who bets $160. Hero calls and the turn is a 2 . Hero checks, Villain bets $350 and Hero check raises to $1250 total. The Villain has to call $900 more and has about $2000 total behind. He eventually folds. A discussion ensues because the Hero admits his stupid and transparent play with A 9 in the hand (basically, he's not repping anything) and the Villain said he was pretty sure that it was a semi bluff but couldn't pull the trigger since he only had 78 suited.On to the real hand.Villain is in the SB with $1600 total.Hero is on the button with 7 9 and a stack that makes the Villain's stack look out of place3 people limp, Hero limps, Villain completes, BB checks.Flop - $60 - 6 PlayersJ 7 3 Villain bets $50, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises to $300 total. Villain immediately announces "I'm gonna raise" and makes it $600 on top of the $300, leaving himself $675 behind. It folds back to the Hero who can play for the villain's whole stack of $1275 if he wishes. What should our beloved Hero do? Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 I didn't read the OP.But go all in. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 I didn't read the OP..Lead by example please. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Fact #1: A pair and a flush draw is a favorite against a naked jack.Fact #2: Fact #1 is immaterial. He doesn't have just a jack.Villain has either a flush draw plus a gutshot, two pair, or a set. Link to post Share on other sites
IBFT 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Fact #1: A pair and a flush draw is a favorite against a naked jack.Fact #2: Fact #1 is immaterial. He doesn't have just a jack.Villain has either a flush draw plus a gutshot, two pair, or a set.no chance that the villain is just making a move based on the previous action from the hero? I dunno, ISAP. And I push. Link to post Share on other sites
shinzilla 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Fact #1: A pair and a flush draw is a favorite against a naked jack.Fact #2: Fact #1 is immaterial. He doesn't have just a jack.Villain has either a flush draw plus a gutshot, two pair, or a set.Why not an overpair?Edit: Oops. Thought villain raised pf. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 no chance that the villain is just making a move based on the previous action from the hero? I dunno, ISAP. And I push.Hmmm, maybe I should be taking the first hand more into consideration. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Hmmm, maybe I should be taking the first hand more into consideration.I'm on the fence about this. I just included it because it gave insight into both player's games and it showed that although he made the move with A9ss, he thought it was a bad play and admitted that. Not the kind of thing I'd expect to see happen again within the next hour if you know what I mean. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Why are you playing at the Wynn?It's even more cramped than Bellagio. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Why are you playing at the Wynn?It's even more cramped than Bellagio.Are you still drunk? It's not more cramped than the Bellagio. There's an actual walkway in the middle. Playing in my closet wouldn't be more cramped than the Bellagio.Oh, and any casino too snooty for articles can kiss my ***. I'm calling it the Bellagio. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 I'm on the fence about this. I just included it because it gave insight into both player's games and it showed that although he made the move with A9ss, he thought it was a bad play and admitted that. Not the kind of thing I'd expect to see happen again within the next hour if you know what I mean.:shrug: Well, there it is.I have to think he really likes his hand here. He's leading into the field on a scary board and then reraising a bunch of folks who look like they want to call. Link to post Share on other sites
Ricer98 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Fact #1: A pair and a flush draw is a favorite against a naked jack.Fact #2: Fact #1 is immaterial. He doesn't have just a jack.Villain has either a flush draw plus a gutshot, two pair, or a set.You don't think the villiain pushes worse hands here? Especially after knowing he was bluffed by a draw and admitting he couldn't pull the trigger last time. He was thinking about shoving second pair against what he thought was a draw last time. I think that makes him more likely to push a jack or worse this time around.I'm on the fence about this. I just included it because it gave insight into both player's games and it showed that although he made the move with A9ss, he thought it was a bad play and admitted that. Not the kind of thing I'd expect to see happen again within the next hour if you know what I mean.So did you make the move with A9ss or the villain? OP seems it was you, this post seems to say it was the villianLooking at pot odds we only have to call $600 into a $1410 pot. Which means we have the exact odds we need to break even against any set and are +EV against any other hand. If we call on the flop we would be commited regardless of the turn card, so I say just shove it on the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
sabes99 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 very easy shove, you're not folding so you might as well play for it all right now Link to post Share on other sites
HoosierAlum 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Raise pre sometimes.Meh, with him leading out into this many people/then 3-betting he almost always has 2 pair or a set so just run the #s and see if you are getting the right price to draw to the hearts. edit: I suppose he could have some huge combo draw as well. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Are you still drunk? It's not more cramped than the Bellagio. There's an actual walkway in the middle. Playing in my closet wouldn't be more cramped than the Bellagio.Oh, and any casino too snooty for articles can kiss my ***. I'm calling it the Bellagio.lol, it's definitely just as cramped, if not more cramped than the Bellagio, and when I played there it was hot as hell.The only plus is that Steve Wynn hand picked the cocktail servers, which is very +EV. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 If I'm still awake enough to do math, we're getting about 2000/1275 =~ 3:2 to see the last two cards. Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.010% 31.01% 00.00% 921 0.00 { 9h7h }Hand 1: 68.990% 68.99% 00.00% 2049 0.00 { 33 } Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.280% 42.27% 00.01% 5440 1.50 { 9h7h }Hand 1: 57.720% 57.71% 00.01% 7427 1.50 { 77, 33, J7s, Th8h, 6h4h, 5h4h, J7o } I'm too lazy to fix these stupid columns. Looks about break-even to me. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 lol, it's definitely just as cramped, if not more cramped than the Bellagio, and when I played there it was hot as hell.The only plus is that Steve Wynn hand picked the cocktail servers, which is very +EV.He keeps them thin by making them walk to Missouri to bring the poker room drinks all day.I like the Wynn. The 3 dollar chips piss me off though. Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 i want to really believe in 2 pair here.J,7 J,3 type garbage. If u know him to be LAG enough to complete the SB with any 2, than i'm really leaning 2 pair. Maybe.. maybe a small set.I think he have at least 11 clean outs on the flop. How often does villain show up with a higher FD? opposed to lower suited connectors? the way its played seems more like my 1st thoughtsso i opt to shovel. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Ok, we pretty much have no fold equity, so he has basically shoved for $1275 more. It's just a case of do we call.$1275 into $2035 means we need ~40% equity.Against most possible ranges it's pretty close.I shove. I can't justify it one way or another, other than saying 'metagame considerations'. Link to post Share on other sites
CBass1724 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 I think he has a set of 3's, bottom 2 pair or something like Ah8h. You'd think one of the other callers has a J and the other possibly a flush draw. Why else would they call? I don't know. I'd probably fold because some donk will call with QJ and beat me or have a higher flush draw and make it. We don't have as many outs as we think and could be drawing slim to only a few outs. I say get out and find a better spot.Or GAMBOOOOL! Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 So did you make the move with A9ss or the villain? OP seems it was you, this post seems to say it was the villianThe Hero made the move and the villain almost called down with 2nd pair.You don't think the villiain pushes worse hands here? Especially after knowing he was bluffed by a draw and admitting he couldn't pull the trigger last time.What worse hands can he be pushing here? Would he really push a flush draw after that much action? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 If I'm still awake enough to do math, we're getting about 2000/1275 =~ 3:2 to see the last two cards.Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.010% 31.01% 00.00% 921 0.00 { 9h7h }Hand 1: 68.990% 68.99% 00.00% 2049 0.00 { 33 } Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.280% 42.27% 00.01% 5440 1.50 { 9h7h }Hand 1: 57.720% 57.71% 00.01% 7427 1.50 { 77, 33, J7s, Th8h, 6h4h, 5h4h, J7o } I'm too lazy to fix these stupid columns. Looks about break-even to me. I don't agree with the 2nd range. I think it should be hands like 77, 33, J7o, J7s, J3o, J3s, 73o, 73s and maybe throw in T8hh and AThh and see what happens. Those two little flushes are gonna really skew poker tracker becuase they're drawing just about dead and I think it's bad business to play one of them OOP like that. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 I don't agree with the 2nd range. I think it should be hands like 77, 33, J7o, J7s, J3o, J3s, 73o, 73s and maybe throw in T8hh and AThh and see what happens. Those two little flushes are gonna really skew poker tracker becuase they're drawing just about dead and I think it's bad business to play one of them OOP like that.It's not going to make that much difference since we're only talking about a couple of combinations out the range.Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 59.048% 58.28% 00.77% 15578 205.50 { 77, 33, AhTh, J7s, J3s, Th8h, 73s, J7o, J3o, 73o }Hand 1: 40.952% 40.18% 00.77% 10741 205.50 { 9h7h } Board: Jh 7c 3hDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 59.622% 58.79% 00.83% 14551 205.50 { 77, 33, J7s, J3s, 73s, J7o, J3o, 73o }Hand 1: 40.378% 39.55% 00.83% 9788 205.50 { 9h7h } Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Cool, so the final consensus is if he goes all in against the Villain here, he can have 3-2 on his money and against the villain's range, he's almost exactly a 3-2 dog? Link to post Share on other sites
fckthis 0 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 so did u shove it? Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now