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About cMcMonkey

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  1. I think 8 is a generous estimate. You could easily split with one of the 7's hitting, or be behind to 2-pr killing the A outs. The only sure thing is the backdoor flush draw, and you can't really count that in your 6.75:1 estimate, since you'd have to put in $111 to hit it, not just the $36 of the raise. And what if the 4 str8 hits and he folds to a bet? Maybe I'm way off, but its seems like you're playing around with the numbers to make the call work by overestimating outs and pot odds. You're obviously counting a spade on the turn as a "good" card, but now you're having to call another
  2. Even if his hand is as bad as ours, he's got the positional edge. I understand you can't give a lot of credit at live 1/2, but 3rd hand, no read you have to give a little credit. Almost any flop except the one that came down (including an A flop with <2 hearts) is going to either be a c/f or make for some very tough decisions against an unknown. Why bother now for a marginal hand, when you're likely to get paid off well by all the monkeys in short order?If we know Villain (and the other caller) to be a fishcake, then calling makes more sense to me. All that said, its not the worst thing
  3. A full game I might agree, but HU play deviates from "logical" way too often to use that as your sole argument for narrowing your read so much. I'm not even saying I disagree with a read of Axc being the *most likely* hand by the river, but the main point is that its not the ONLY possible hand; to play every street as if it is completely ignores many other feasible possibilities. Having not been in the HU match with you, I can't say what those other possibilities are, but I know the range is always going to be greater than Axc unless you see his hole cards by mistake.
  4. If you're gonna raise pf, then do more than min-raise. On the flop, you have the nuts and 2 in for the pot in front of you, so raise and pump that pot. Even if someone else is in the hand with an A, they have at most 9 outs, meanwhile charge that low now while you still can. If someone is drawing dead to high and has a backup low, you need to get their money in now b/c if they miss you're not getting any more. Maybe I'm wrong about that (I'm still learning the O8 stats) but that's my impression at least. If you re-pot the flop and then pot the turn then you don't have to worry about calli
  5. navy hit it all around. I would just add:in the couple places I've played that had O8, it usually took a lot longer than normal to get seated. partly because with so many split pots its harder for someone to go broke, partly because there's fewer O8 tables.pots take longer to sort out (again, b/c of the split), esp. if the dealer(s) aren't used to it or on top of the game.the games are a gold mine even if you just know very basic strategy (like, don't play *every* hand).Definitely ask at the local cardroom. They're usually open to just about anything as long as there are people interested a
  6. I don't like it for the same reason I don't like a few of the other hands you posted. It's impossible for us to comment in detail on your read for the reasons AK gave, but even without any other info I can say that short of some remarkable info, you are chronically putting too narrow a range on your opponent. When you're right it maximizes your edge, but when you're wrong you will be losing a whole lot more between lost bets and putting in too much in -EV situations where your read had you ahead.A couple of times now you've posted hands, sometimes defending your actions (after asking for com
  7. Little late to the party but how about:"This is where you're supposed to yell about me being a lucky SOB, beat your wife and drink too much to protect your fragile ego and justify making another large deposit that you'll just blow again thus the cycle repeats...."OR"This is great, now I can get your old lady the vibrator she's been begging me to get her for when I'm not around"OR"Really I'm doing you a favor, this way you won't blow it on blow and male hookers"
  8. Online, even HU playing someone for an hour or two, it is very hard to get such an exact read. First of all, people do such goofy things all the time that you can never be sure the difference in play is strength, boredom, misclick, 90210 is on and Donna martin graduates!! etc. Live I could maybe see being so confident in your read, but all you have for info online is his betting pattern and there are many reasons for that to change. Second reason is that a set (especially a big set like AA), 2 big pair, even something like 45c or 56c could play this the same exact way HU, could change the b
  9. I don't think there's anything wrong with testing the waters, especially if you're in sight of your BR being able to support the higher limit. Its much better, IMO, to use your strategy to get a feel for the new game before building your BR and just jumping in all the way. I've done the same on occasion, and I've found what I have to be careful of is playing too tight/giving too much credit and then changing my play when I do start doing well. Whether that's making bad decisions because I don't want to give it all back, or playing too loose because I'm up so much compared to the normal limi
  10. He may be getting looser and looser with your reasonable bets, but the 2 examples you gave show that he has a willingness to pass up a gamble when you shovel way overbetting the pot and wait for you to hang yourself when he actually has a hand. Granted, the same thing could happen and he could have A10 here, or an A with the flush draw or something you're ahead of, but I think your previous bluffs made him more likely to wait for a hand where he felt he was pretty far ahead before calling the big bet. Calling down reasonable bets against a proven bluffer with A-high or 2nd/3rd pair HU is muc
  11. I can also see us calling and UTG raising the flush he made, after checking figuring no one would call a bet from him with his obvious flush but might take a stab if he checks. What then? If UTG just calls we have to win 1 out of 3 or 4 times to make it profitable (against 2 hands mind you), if he folds its 1 out of 2 or 3. With the threat of the raise you have to adjust the numbers to be even more sure. The logical read after the turn was draw and the draw hit. A str8 draw makes no sense, calling a $4-5 bet on a paired flop with a gutshot?? A mid-PP is a good possibility for one of them
  12. Thanks for all the replies, I'd been struggling with whether to play it or not for a while and it puts the tourney in different perspective. If I'm looking for tourney experience or to test my skill its prob not the best choice (which I knew), but it seems to be +EV (both in theory and in my results). Since its a fun diversion from the regular cash games I'll probably play it a few more times to try and get lucky and wait until I get back East to play some real tournaments.The $500 overlay is really what makes it. The same way the $70,000+ bad beat jackpot makes the cash games worth it even
  13. As simo said, probably in this case. OTOH, making it $4 would make a re-raise that much more legit. If its me in MP3 and I see the 1/4 pot $1.25 bet I might raise with a lot of hands TT has beat, reading weakness and a willingness to get out cheap.
  14. Yeah, you pretty much summed it up. If you get a good soft first table in the tourney you can build up to 2-3x your starting stack with little risk since there are a lot of weak-tight limit players who play and are unwilling to call without the nuts until they're super short. Barring that you need to get lucky some number of times to hit the final table. I thought being a super big stack at the final table would make it easier from there, but as you proved even with 10k the jump to 500-1000 is too much, pretty much any hand played is all-in pf and then pray.I don't mind having to get there
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