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Everything posted by cMcMonkey

  1. I think 8 is a generous estimate. You could easily split with one of the 7's hitting, or be behind to 2-pr killing the A outs. The only sure thing is the backdoor flush draw, and you can't really count that in your 6.75:1 estimate, since you'd have to put in $111 to hit it, not just the $36 of the raise. And what if the 4 str8 hits and he folds to a bet? Maybe I'm way off, but its seems like you're playing around with the numbers to make the call work by overestimating outs and pot odds. You're obviously counting a spade on the turn as a "good" card, but now you're having to call another
  2. Even if his hand is as bad as ours, he's got the positional edge. I understand you can't give a lot of credit at live 1/2, but 3rd hand, no read you have to give a little credit. Almost any flop except the one that came down (including an A flop with <2 hearts) is going to either be a c/f or make for some very tough decisions against an unknown. Why bother now for a marginal hand, when you're likely to get paid off well by all the monkeys in short order?If we know Villain (and the other caller) to be a fishcake, then calling makes more sense to me. All that said, its not the worst thing
  3. A full game I might agree, but HU play deviates from "logical" way too often to use that as your sole argument for narrowing your read so much. I'm not even saying I disagree with a read of Axc being the *most likely* hand by the river, but the main point is that its not the ONLY possible hand; to play every street as if it is completely ignores many other feasible possibilities. Having not been in the HU match with you, I can't say what those other possibilities are, but I know the range is always going to be greater than Axc unless you see his hole cards by mistake.
  4. If you're gonna raise pf, then do more than min-raise. On the flop, you have the nuts and 2 in for the pot in front of you, so raise and pump that pot. Even if someone else is in the hand with an A, they have at most 9 outs, meanwhile charge that low now while you still can. If someone is drawing dead to high and has a backup low, you need to get their money in now b/c if they miss you're not getting any more. Maybe I'm wrong about that (I'm still learning the O8 stats) but that's my impression at least. If you re-pot the flop and then pot the turn then you don't have to worry about calli
  5. navy hit it all around. I would just add:in the couple places I've played that had O8, it usually took a lot longer than normal to get seated. partly because with so many split pots its harder for someone to go broke, partly because there's fewer O8 tables.pots take longer to sort out (again, b/c of the split), esp. if the dealer(s) aren't used to it or on top of the game.the games are a gold mine even if you just know very basic strategy (like, don't play *every* hand).Definitely ask at the local cardroom. They're usually open to just about anything as long as there are people interested a
  6. I don't like it for the same reason I don't like a few of the other hands you posted. It's impossible for us to comment in detail on your read for the reasons AK gave, but even without any other info I can say that short of some remarkable info, you are chronically putting too narrow a range on your opponent. When you're right it maximizes your edge, but when you're wrong you will be losing a whole lot more between lost bets and putting in too much in -EV situations where your read had you ahead.A couple of times now you've posted hands, sometimes defending your actions (after asking for com
  7. Little late to the party but how about:"This is where you're supposed to yell about me being a lucky SOB, beat your wife and drink too much to protect your fragile ego and justify making another large deposit that you'll just blow again thus the cycle repeats...."OR"This is great, now I can get your old lady the vibrator she's been begging me to get her for when I'm not around"OR"Really I'm doing you a favor, this way you won't blow it on blow and male hookers"
  8. Online, even HU playing someone for an hour or two, it is very hard to get such an exact read. First of all, people do such goofy things all the time that you can never be sure the difference in play is strength, boredom, misclick, 90210 is on and Donna martin graduates!! etc. Live I could maybe see being so confident in your read, but all you have for info online is his betting pattern and there are many reasons for that to change. Second reason is that a set (especially a big set like AA), 2 big pair, even something like 45c or 56c could play this the same exact way HU, could change the b
  9. I don't think there's anything wrong with testing the waters, especially if you're in sight of your BR being able to support the higher limit. Its much better, IMO, to use your strategy to get a feel for the new game before building your BR and just jumping in all the way. I've done the same on occasion, and I've found what I have to be careful of is playing too tight/giving too much credit and then changing my play when I do start doing well. Whether that's making bad decisions because I don't want to give it all back, or playing too loose because I'm up so much compared to the normal limi
  10. He may be getting looser and looser with your reasonable bets, but the 2 examples you gave show that he has a willingness to pass up a gamble when you shovel way overbetting the pot and wait for you to hang yourself when he actually has a hand. Granted, the same thing could happen and he could have A10 here, or an A with the flush draw or something you're ahead of, but I think your previous bluffs made him more likely to wait for a hand where he felt he was pretty far ahead before calling the big bet. Calling down reasonable bets against a proven bluffer with A-high or 2nd/3rd pair HU is muc
  11. I can also see us calling and UTG raising the flush he made, after checking figuring no one would call a bet from him with his obvious flush but might take a stab if he checks. What then? If UTG just calls we have to win 1 out of 3 or 4 times to make it profitable (against 2 hands mind you), if he folds its 1 out of 2 or 3. With the threat of the raise you have to adjust the numbers to be even more sure. The logical read after the turn was draw and the draw hit. A str8 draw makes no sense, calling a $4-5 bet on a paired flop with a gutshot?? A mid-PP is a good possibility for one of them
  12. Thanks for all the replies, I'd been struggling with whether to play it or not for a while and it puts the tourney in different perspective. If I'm looking for tourney experience or to test my skill its prob not the best choice (which I knew), but it seems to be +EV (both in theory and in my results). Since its a fun diversion from the regular cash games I'll probably play it a few more times to try and get lucky and wait until I get back East to play some real tournaments.The $500 overlay is really what makes it. The same way the $70,000+ bad beat jackpot makes the cash games worth it even
  13. As simo said, probably in this case. OTOH, making it $4 would make a re-raise that much more legit. If its me in MP3 and I see the 1/4 pot $1.25 bet I might raise with a lot of hands TT has beat, reading weakness and a willingness to get out cheap.
  14. Yeah, you pretty much summed it up. If you get a good soft first table in the tourney you can build up to 2-3x your starting stack with little risk since there are a lot of weak-tight limit players who play and are unwilling to call without the nuts until they're super short. Barring that you need to get lucky some number of times to hit the final table. I thought being a super big stack at the final table would make it easier from there, but as you proved even with 10k the jump to 500-1000 is too much, pretty much any hand played is all-in pf and then pray.I don't mind having to get there
  15. You guessed it, its the Cal Grand. You've played it I assume? What's your impression?
  16. Thanks for the replies, I figured not shoving was a mistake afterward, but as it turned out I don't think it would change anything. The 7-8 connector hit 2-pr on the flop (giving me a str8 draw), but AJ turn/rivered a better 2-pr to take it down.As for not playing it, I've been torn since I did so well the first 4 times I played it, and over 20 or so have been a coinflip to make the final table and at least get my money back. The casino adds $500 to the prize pool and the final 3 often chop for 800/ea which is more than the usual payout for 2nd (300 3rd, 600 2nd 1500 1st). I've chopped twic
  17. There's a weekly $50+5 at the local B&M that plays *very* fast. Its capped at 50 people and typically finishes within 2 hrs (3 hrs is long). There's a little room to play early, but a couple brutal blind jumps - 40-80 jumps to 100-200 and even worse 200-400 to 500-1000 usually around the start of the final table with avg stack at 2500 - means you have to make some hands or some moves sooner rather than later.A situation came up last week that I want to get some opinions about. We're at the last 20-40 hand (40-80 level next hand) and I'm sitting on just over 300 in chips. I'm UTG with 6
  18. ....i just got fired by my dyslexic, homophobic boss....
  19. Doh! Seriously, this happens to me every time I make a post somewhere correcting or complaining about someone's grammar or spelling. Its like 5:1 you're gonna screw something up when pointing out someone else's mistake (which means theres at least 2-3 in this post). I like my old English prof. email signature to cover her bases:"The above email is neither chellspecked nor roofpread."
  20. Meh, so I missed the flush draw, the point still stands that he was not as overwhelming a favorite once the flop hits. calling all-in then getting beat on a coinflip is never a bad beat and doesn't deserve sympathy. And OP's orig. point still stands, its what he gets for challenging a powerhouse like 72.
  21. No, your biggest mistake was making a move without enough consideration of what he actually had and enough foresight into what you were representing. Yes, in this case if you had raised the flop he might have dumped it right there, but the *point* is to make sure you're picking the right spot and the right opponent to make a move on, and the easiest way to do that is to be able to answer the question of *why* with concrete evidence from previous hands and his action on the current hand. Otherwise its a crapshoot whether he has a hand or not and whether he can let it go or not and whether he'
  22. Certainly >EV than missing draws. I never understood why ppl would miss when they could just hit their card and win like everyone does at 3-6 limit. Maybe they're thinking long term and not trying to win every pot, I hear that's pretty popular these days.
  23. And from a strictly theoretical POV, it is incorrect thinking. You want to push your edges while you have them, reducing variance also reduces EV. If you are in a tourney situation or where you have only 1 buy-in and can't afford to go broke then it might make sense (although the cynic says: why are you playing out of your BR/comfort zone with only 1 buy-in?). That said A) I think 95% is too high a confidence rate for a specific hand in most situations and B) you're opening yourself up to be bluffed off the pot when a scary river hits.
  24. Its always scary to see the 3 flush board when holding a set, but given the 2 previous hands he could be making a stand with a lot here. The only thing you're in bad shape against is a set or flush, and theres no way to narrow it down that much (plus you'd still have some outs in the case of the flush).As for varying your play, I think this is exactly what you're hoping to happen. If you try to change it up now you risk giving a worst hand odds to draw out, or getting your action killed if a 4th spade rolls off and he has K8 or something.
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