Obvious River Bet... Or Is It?

[zimmer4141 0]

Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $1/$26 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $200Hero: $249.90CO: $216.40Button: $199.75SB: $115.75BB: $453Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K A UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.Flop: T 4 A ($17, 2 players)Hero bets $13, Button calls.Turn: 3 ($43, 2 players)Hero bets $27, Button calls.River: A ($97, 2 players)Hero ????Originally when the river hit I thought putting out a value bet of around 60-70, but then I began thinking that a check might be the best play here.I really think a check is the best play against most of his range (which I had as around A8-AQ, diamonds, possibly donking it in there with KQ, KJ, QJ)If he has an A, he bets after I check and I can c/r him for all my chips. If he has a draw, I'm not getting anything if I bet and he might bluff. Thoughts?

[mtdesmoines 3]

thoughts?

Bet $27. It'll induce bluffs or at least put money in your pot.

[danau 0]

Ax diamonds is raising somewhere, I think we can exclude that from his range.. I like a bet here more than a check, if he has air here you aren't getting called, but he probably bets a weak ace after tripping up more often than he bets a busted fd

[tskillz187 0]

Meh, I'd bet like $42 and hope he saw it as weakness.

[KramitDaToad 0]

Ax diamonds is raising somewhere.

It did. Preflop I like a check unless you have a read that he can be aggressive then the weak lead is good.

[bdc30 0]

I like a ~$30-35 bet. Like others have said, without a solid read that he'll make a play at the pot, a nice little value bet feels right here.

[No_Neck 0]

I don't mind check raising the river, i like to mix that in every once in a while just to keep them guessing.

[danau 0]

It did. Preflop I like a check unless you have a read that he can be aggressive then the weak lead is good.

Thought it was obvious Flopping TP with the NFD, I am building the pot as much as possible... would be amazed to see villain turn over Axdd

[bdc30 0]

would be amazed to see villain turn over Axdd

Since we have it in our hand, I'd be pretty friggin amazed to see another A too.

[Snamuh 0]

Since we have it in our hand, I'd be pretty friggin amazed to see another A too.

+1Any info on villain? Looks like AQ/AJ/A9. I don't mind a C/R here either to mix up your play some, especially if you think he will bluff a missed diamond draw.

[Jordan 1]

+1Any info on villain? Looks like AQ/AJ/A9. I don't mind a C/R here either to mix up your play some, especially if you think he will bluff a missed diamond draw.

I disagree. Hero turn bet is weak enough that draws will still call.I'd def. check this and hope he bets at it.- Jordan

[Acid_Knight 2]

The odds that he's called you down with a pair of tens are pretty remote. Most of his range is made up of busted draws. If he has a weak ace, he's certainly going to bet it if you check. If he has the draw and gives up by checking behind, no big deal, since he was giving up anyway. I can't see how betting any amount gets us more value than checking will.

[tripdeuces 0]

I understand the line up to the river but I am curious what value you see in check raising the river as opposed to just check calling. What hands will actually call the check raise?? Do we not care to show it down? Just curious what hands you think call the check raise on the river.That being said a check would probably induce the most money considering it looks like you whiffed a big draw and any weaker draw/pair will bet it so much more often.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I understand the line up to the river but I am curious what value you see in check raising the river as opposed to just check calling. What hands will actually call the check raise?? Do we not care to show it down? Just curious what hands you think call the check raise on the river.That being said a check would probably induce the most money considering it looks like you whiffed a big draw and any weaker draw/pair will bet it so much more often.

We're check raising the river not really expecting a call unless he has the case A. This isn't a case where we fear we're behind, so check-raising is the correct play. It's not like it's a really dangerous board. The odds that he has us beaten here are extremely remote.

[tskillz187 0]

We're check raising the river not really expecting a call unless he has the case A. This isn't a case where we fear we're behind, so check-raising is the correct play. It's not like it's a really dangerous board. The odds that he has us beaten here are extremely remote.

I understand getting value from missed draws bluffing on river. But don't weaker A's raise us pretty big on the river and we get a bigger pot at showdown with the call, as opposed to the C/R where weaker A's aren't going to call.

[tripdeuces 0]

So with a bigger bet by him we are afraid to get the rest of ur stack in? Why not still just go for the c/r regardless of betsize. The bigger the bet the easier the bet size for us would be.

[Lavitz 0]

I understand the line up to the river but I am curious what value you see in check raising the river as opposed to just check calling. What hands will actually call the check raise?? Do we not care to show it down? Just curious what hands you think call the check raise on the river.That being said a check would probably induce the most money considering it looks like you whiffed a big draw and any weaker draw/pair will bet it so much more often.

Any ace will bet when checked to and call a modest reraise probably. We can even go for the ole min check/reraise if we feel a real one will scare a weaker ace away.

[tripdeuces 0]

If we go for the check min raise and get shoved on do we insta call? I understand the board texture and player action does not give the impression that that would happen but just a thought. Still definitely remote as Acid said that we would be behind.

[tskillz187 0]

So with a bigger bet by him we are afraid to get the rest of ur stack in? Why not still just go for the c/r regardless of betsize. The bigger the bet the easier the bet size for us would be.

I don't know if this is in response to me or not. My post above yours may have been vague, I was talking about leading the river to induce the bigger bet by him on the river. I don't think Villain is calling our C/R on the river very often. But if we lead his bet obviously has to be bigger than if we had checked, and then we get a much bigger pot.Clearly this is doesn't work if he has a missed draw, whereas when we go for the C/R we may get some money with the busted draw betting on the end.

[mtdesmoines 3]

If we go for the check min raise and get shoved on do we insta call? I understand the board texture and player action does not give the impression that that would happen but just a thought. Still definitely remote as Acid said that we would be behind.

I do not "insta" call here.I think about this for a minute. There are better than a half dozen hands that beat us. Let's think if we're willing to chase a $45 investment with $210 for 9th nuts.

[tripdeuces 0]

I think a hand like this is very read dependent cause if zimmer was perceived as playing very LAG then it could be a slowplayed set. I just don't see it being the worse hand here very often. All the hands he is crushed by on the flop in turn would typically want to inflate the pot more to extract maximum value.No?

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think a hand like this is very read dependent cause if zimmer was perceived as playing very LAG then it could be a slowplayed set. I just don't see it being the worse hand here very often. All the hands he is crushed by on the flop in turn would typically want to inflate the pot more to extract maximum value.No?

Button has to know Hero is strong because Hero raised 3x BB in EP. Button may have landed on a boat like an AAA44. Button might be thinking ... "OK, let's get your big slick all in on the river."EDIT: also ... hands like A3 grew up along the way.