clark defense

[econ_tim 0]

$1/$2 LHEI'm CO with [ Ts Qd ]Folded to me, I raise, both blinds call.Flop (6 SB) [ 7d, Tc, 5c ]SB checks, BB bets, I raise, SB folds, BB calls.Turn (5 BB) [4c]BB checks, I bet, BB calls.River (7 BB) [Kc]BB bets, I raise.Do I fold better hands (two pairs, K, etc.) often enough to raise here? No reason to think BB knows Clarkmeister line, but a lot of players might bluff a club.

[TheIceman05 0]

I've been trying this myself, and trying to keep track. I get drunk too often for my records to be reliable...But I feel like it's VERY similar to using Clarkmeister in the first place, with the added bonus of taking Clarkmeister users behind the woodshed. The bluff-raise in this scenario seems to be profitable for me, but my sample size is admittedly small... I'd like to see what everyone has to sayIce

[popeye18 0]

Eh i dont know. So many players will donk bet bluff this river so foldiong in my opinion is out in this big pot. I dont think your gonna fold alot of better hands here as i believe a king will call your raise and flush will at least call. Id rather just call here and see the showdown. Also if he using the clarkmeister therom i bet he has no idea haha.

[Actuary 3]

fwiw...wouldn't you put him on a made flush at the river based on the betting throughout the hand ?And is he folding this enuf to risk 2 BB to win 8 BB ? Of course I've not learned to use bet/fold correctly yet. I usually resort to check/call. So I certainly am not qualified to advise on when to bluff raise, and entice a bet/fold.

[econ_tim 0]

fwiw...wouldn't you put him on a made flush at the river based on the betting throughout the hand ?And is he folding this enuf to risk 2 BB to win 8 BB ?  

His betting is a little strange for a flush. He bets the flop, which probably means a pair or overs. He then checks the turn, which he would bet or c/r if he has the flush then (unless he has a bad flush and is scared or a good flush and is getting fancy).He certainly could have backed into a flush on the river, but he also could have made a hand like kings up.I'm not risking two bets, I'm only risking one since I would rather call than fold, and I'll fold to a 3-bet.The question is, does raising make him fold a better hand than mine at least 1/8th of the time?

[Actuary 3]

ok..how about a low pocket pair, (or a 7) with 1 club?Save pots not bets.That's the theme here...The wife has fixed quacamola...I'll have to get back t othis later!

[idiotbocs 0]

without a read this is chip spewing.most players check there non flush hands.also, if he is bluffing he's folding to a raise, and calling a club...most donks don't fold.

[Actuary 3]

ok..guac will wait...These numbers are out of my ass..but is this the logic?(edit to add: I did this quick...but the assumed 25% that we win a showdown is too high...likely giving more credence to bluiff-raise..but will he fold a flush?)On the river we can: fold/call/raiseFold:EV = 0CallEV= P(W) * 8 + P(L) * -1RaiseHe foldsEV = 8He callsEV= P(W) * 9 + P(L) * -2He 3-betswe fold, I assumeEV = -2Now all that's left is to assign likelihoods.I picked:P(W) @ showdown = 25%P(L) @ showdown = 75%P (He folds) = 15%P (He calls) = 60%P (He 3-bets) = 25%Summary:We foldEV = 0We callEV = 1.25We raiseEV = 1.15If you assume he folds 20%, calls 70%, and 3-bets 10%EV of Raising = 1.925If you assume he folds 10%, calls 70%, and 3-bets 20%EV of Raising = 0.925So seems close, but my likelihoods are not based on enough experience.

[econ_tim 0]

Actuary, your calculation are almost correct, but you need to adjust P(W) and P(L) if he calls our raise.If he calls our raise, we update our beliefs about his hand since calling the raise indicates strength.So when we call him the EV is P(W)*8 + P(L)*-1But when we raise and he calls us, the EV is P(W|R)*10 + P(L|R)*-2Where P(W|R) is the probabilty that we win conditional on him calling our raise.We assume P(W|R)<=P(W), that is the condional probabilty of us winning after he calls our raise is less than the uncondional probablity we have before we know if he will call or fold.

[Actuary 3]

Tim,no doubt.I ddi it quick and it was my first time.As an actuary, I'm so ashamed :oops:

[DKE_XP120 0]

without a read this is chip spewing.most players check there non flush hands.also, if he is bluffing he's folding to a raise, and calling a club...most donks don't fold.

agreed... I need to have ALOT of hands on the guy to try something like this

[econ_tim 0]

agreed... I need to have ALOT of hands on the guy to try something like this

OK. Say you do have a lot of hands. What would you look for?High river aggression and high folds to river bet?

[Briguy 0]

$1/$2 LHEI'm CO with [  Ts Qd ]Folded to me, I raise, both blinds call.Flop (6 SB) [ 7d, Tc, 5c ]SB checks, BB bets, I raise, SB folds, BB calls.Turn (5 BB) [4c]BB checks, I bet, BB calls.River (7 BB) [Kc]BB bets, I raise.Do I fold better hands (two pairs, K, etc.) often enough to raise here?  No reason to think BB knows Clarkmeister line, but a lot of players might bluff a club.

Why not just call if you think he's pulling a Clarkmeister? Even if it is a clark, there is a possibility that he's got your 2nd pair GK beat. You may convince AT to fold, but I doubt that 2-pair or a nekkid K fold to the raise, especially if the bonus card in his hand is any club (especially the 7). I think that this raise is a spew, regardless of the results (whatever they were).

[Rocketwadster 0]

Wouldn't a better defense be to simply call on the river? Unless you think he is going to fold with a small club, seems like a waste. :?