Shove Over Top On River Or Just Call?

[outsider13 0]

Well, I guess it depends on stack size, and what max flop bet you'd call/pot size/blinds/etc. A lot of scenarios could affect the pot size. I just don't think it's optimal at all to play this way in this structure. The same scenario plays out with position too. Bet/call, c/c, check/bet/call. Same end result.I think it really comes down to how well you play post flop. Playing at that buyin level, making reads can be quite tough due to the level of skill so you are often way ahead or way behind. That's why I think it's better to bet bet bet so you can define your hand a bit better. Again, I'm only betting hands that I think are ahead, and not proposing to bet 99 on a KJ8.

[SGFULTON83 0]

And you could also see KJ. The point is that if you shove and lose, you're out of the tourney. If you shove and win, you pull in an extra 500 chips (over calling). That extra 500 chips is insignificant in the grand scheme of the tourney, and the benefit in terms of overall tournament equity is virtually nil. It's just not worth the risk. I think calling is by far the better play here.

Let's pretend that on the river it was raised all-in instead of to 600. Are you folding here? If you are not folding to an all-in re-raise then why would we only be calling the 600 instead of raising it? If you would fold it seems puzzling to me. I understand the concept of this pot not making or breaking us in the whole tournament but it seems we want to get the most chips we can. If we get coolered so be it, it happens from time to time.

[SlackerInc 0]

Let's pretend that on the river it was raised all-in instead of to 600. Are you folding here? If you are not folding to an all-in re-raise then why would we only be calling the 600 instead of raising it? If you would fold it seems puzzling to me. I understand the concept of this pot not making or breaking us in the whole tournament but it seems we want to get the most chips we can. If we get coolered so be it, it happens from time to time.

I see your point, but I think the logic is flawed. There are prices we will reluctantly pay because we see the alternative as worse, but where we'd still rather pay less. For instance, when bargaining over the price of a used car. There is a price, let's say $5,000, that you are hoping you can bargain the price down to. There is a price (let's say $6,000) above which you will just refuse to buy the car. But if you can't get the salesman down lower than $5500, you'll still pay it. Same applies here (although the analogy is not exact): if villain raises all in (which he would surely do if he knew how strong our hand is), our hand is too good to fold and we grudgingly call and hope we're not beat. But we don't have to pay that much to go to showdown, so just calling is worth considering at least. Now, of course in reality that's not what I did, but I'm coming around to the idea that it makes sense.

[Mercury69 3]

OMG! Really? Fist pump insta shove...

[donk4life 34]

I'm sure if this has been mentioned but I think pocket 8's is a likely possible holding as well here. I can't see myself just calling here, there's many hands he's overvaluating here that we crush, I'd ship it in.

[TrueAce13 18]

I guess I will say it again.... Arrrwwwwwwww Innnnnnn

[TrueAce13 18]

Ok, So until now, I haven't really read everyone's post and just have been saying all in. Now, I have read the majority of the posts and have this to say...ALL IN! -Now alright, even though this is a sng, people still play horrendously stupid and will ship this river with a naked J many times. We have the best hand almost all the time, why not get it in now? Our hand has too much value just to flat the river. If he has a better boat, more power to him. Its a cooler, GG you.

[HighwayStar 8]

I think his range is most weighted towards hands he loves on the turn. I think he's jamming 2 pair combos on the turn and slow playing 88/QT. It's a weird river check raise, almost makes me think he's bluffing.

[jmbreslin 0]

Let's pretend that on the river it was raised all-in instead of to 600. Are you folding here? If you are not folding to an all-in re-raise then why would we only be calling the 600 instead of raising it? If you would fold it seems puzzling to me. I understand the concept of this pot not making or breaking us in the whole tournament but it seems we want to get the most chips we can. If we get coolered so be it, it happens from time to time.

I would call because our hand is too good to fold. But that doesn't mean I should push all in when faced with a smaller raise. The difference here is that he's giving us an escape route if our hand turns out to be beaten.

[jmbreslin 0]

-Now alright, even though this is a sng, people still play horrendously stupid and will ship this river with a naked J many times. We have the best hand almost all the time, why not get it in now? Our hand has too much value just to flat the river. If he has a better boat, more power to him. Its a cooler, GG you.

I honestly think you guys are missing the point. Obviously Hero's hand is probably good here, as there is only one realistic hand in villain's range that beats him. But that doesn't mean you should automatically be willing to ship your chips in. You have to think about how that decision will affect your overall tournament equity. The fact that he's made the smaller raise gives you a chance to win a nice pot but to also remain in the tourney if he turns out to have that one hand. Pushing to win the extra 500 chips is simply not worth the risk of busting out. If this were a cash game, I'd say push. If this were an MTT and stacks were deeper, I'd say push. But this is neither of those situations.

[AimHigher 0]

This is an area where I definitely think I need to improve my game. When I have a very strong hand (but not the nuts) on the river, and I get check-raised, sometimes I play it safe by calling and find out I could have gotten more value; other times I go for it and find out I should have played it safe after all.

I think this is a form of results oriented thinking (and something I've been guilty of myself).In the context of this example.Let's say we elect to shove and he snap calls with KJ. Does it make it a bad shove? No. Because we're seeing one example of the hands in his range. We need to look at his range as a whole and make a decision independent of the results. The same is true of electing to call and seeing QJ.Here is an idea of what I think his range is. It may be slightly narrow (because we're not including other suited jacks and T7s). I was actually surprised to see nobody mentioning QT.

	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	70.492%	  70.49% 	00.00% 				43 			0.00   { 9c9h }Hand 1: 	29.508%	  29.51% 	00.00% 				18 			0.00   { KK, JJ, 88, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J8s+, AJo, KJo, QTo+, J8o+ }

On to the hand, I think shoving is going to have a greater $EV than merely calling. Tournament equity doesn't mean not risking your stack, it means avoiding busting out on the bubble when someone else is a considerable underdog to cash and it means avoiding very marginally +cEV situations that risk our entire stack.If we value shove here, yes we are risking our entire equity, but we're also risking 99.999999% of his. We gain an equity bonus from crippling an opponent (since it greatly reduces the likelihood of him cashing) in addition to the extra tournament equity we gain from the additional chips.

[SlackerInc 0]

If we value shove here, yes we are risking our entire equity, but we're also risking 99.999999% of his. We gain an equity bonus from crippling an opponent (since it greatly reduces the likelihood of him cashing) in addition to the extra tournament equity we gain from the additional chips.

Good point! Now I'm torn again.

[jmbreslin 0]

On to the hand, I think shoving is going to have a greater $EV than merely calling. Tournament equity doesn't mean not risking your stack, it means avoiding busting out on the bubble when someone else is a considerable underdog to cash and it means avoiding very marginally +cEV situations that risk our entire stack.

Tournament equity considerations are not restricted to those two types of situations. You always have to consider how decisions that put lots of your chips at risk might affect your tournament equity. That's why there are lots of decisions that we might make in a tourney that are different from what we would do in a cash game with the same situation (usually decisions to fold in a tourney when we might not fold in a cash game). Unless you can show me the numbers, you will not convince me that pushing to get an extra 500 chips is worth the risk busting out here. I am perfectly happy to call and take the nice pot.

If we value shove here, yes we are risking our entire equity, but we're also risking 99.999999% of his. We gain an equity bonus from crippling an opponent (since it greatly reduces the likelihood of him cashing) in addition to the extra tournament equity we gain from the additional chips.

Valid point, but you'd have to factor this into the calculation. My guess is that the gain in equity from 500 additional chips and 1 less opponent in a 27-man SnG still does not offset the loss in equity from busting.

[SlackerInc 0]

Here's another 99 hand that turned into a monster by the river, but once again not quite the nuts, facing a villain who was representing a huge hand. I just was unwilling to believe though that villain had exactly J9, especially given that I had two of the nines:PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00+$0.20 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comsaw flop | saw showdownButton (t3485)SB (t2640)BB (t3440)UTG (t1945)UTG+1 (t820)MP1 (t1320)MP2 (t2420)Hero (MP3) (t1930)CO (t1560)Hero's M: 42.89Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9, 93 folds, MP2 raises to t120, Hero calls t120, 4 foldsFlop: (t285) 8, 10, 4(2 players)MP2 checks, Hero checksTurn: (t285) 6(2 players)MP2 bets t180, Hero calls t180River: (t645) 7(2 players)MP2 bets t300, Hero raises to t600, MP2 raises to t900, Hero raises to t1470, 1 foldTotal pot: t2445Results:Hero had 9, 9 (straight, ten high).Outcome: Hero won t2445LOL at the 3-bet bluff attempt, obviously with air (or else it was a terrible fold). Did he really think I was going to fold for 300 more?

[outsider13 0]

I like it. You see people play overpairs like this too. It's quite possible that he finally realized his big pair was no good. Or, he just sucks really bad. Probably the latter.

[SlackerInc 0]

I like it. You see people play overpairs like this too. It's quite possible that he finally realized his big pair was no good. Or, he just sucks really bad. Probably the latter.

LOL, yeah.

[sactownjoey 0]

On the original hand, I am in complete agreement w/jmbreslin. The extra 500 chips absolutely does not justify the shove.

[jmbreslin 0]

On the original hand, I am in complete agreement w/jmbreslin. The extra 500 chips absolutely does not justify the shove.

You're a smart, smart man.

[CheckCallMuck 0]

To me the clear choice is a call. You're risking your tournament life for a fraction of the current pot during the 1st level of blinds. If you win, you're in relatively good position to the remaining players (and as already said, no better off if you're +500 more chips at this stage). If you lose on a call, you're harmed, but not disabled for the rest of the tournament. If you lose on a shove, you're out. End of story.

[AimHigher 0]

I miss Looshle.

[TrueAce13 18]

I miss Looshle.

QFT

[HighwayStar 8]

nits.

[SlackerInc 0]

To me the clear choice is a call. You're risking your tournament life for a fraction of the current pot during the 1st level of blinds. If you win, you're in relatively good position to the remaining players (and as already said, no better off if you're +500 more chips at this stage). If you lose on a call, you're harmed, but not disabled for the rest of the tournament. If you lose on a shove, you're out. End of story.

And it should be noted, as we see from the second 99 hand that turned into the second nut straight, that if we shove we don't always get the extra 500 chips (if villain has air or some busted draw or whatever). On the second hand, though, I think I have to ignore the far less likely danger of J9, don't you think?

[looshle 6]

Idk wat to say.

[looshle 6]

Raise pre, you always have limpets beat. You can limp sometimes but I raise here over 90%.You lose to one hand on the river. If you can't put your stack in on the river, you can't win at tournaments.