rgold79 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 If you live in a state that participates, do yourself a favor and buy a ticket. With the jackpot at at least $370 million, each $1 ticket is actually +EV even accounting for the possibility of a split and for taxes, making it a good bet. Still, you probably won't win. Link to post Share on other sites
ricker 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 I got myself $12 bucks worth in tickets. If I win, I promise to throw a million dollar freeroll for FCP members...on a site...umm....somewhere I guess Link to post Share on other sites
wrathuc 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 what time is the drawing?edit: 11pm EST Link to post Share on other sites
bammerbey 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 actually it would be -EV as the odds are 176,000,000 to 1. If you take the lump sum, after taxes, it would be about $150,000,000. Even though it is -EV, it aint a bad prize. Link to post Share on other sites
DunkSB 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 actually it would be -EV as the odds are 176,000,000 to 1. If you take the lump sum, after taxes, it would be about $150,000,000. Even though it is -EV, it aint a bad prize.1 ticket is 176M to 1. 2 tickets you're probably guaranteed to win the jackpot. ship it. Link to post Share on other sites
rgold79 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 actually it would be -EV as the odds are 176,000,000 to 1. If you take the lump sum, after taxes, it would be about $150,000,000. Even though it is -EV, it aint a bad prize.This is true if you take the lump sum, as the annuity takes 26 years. By the way, WAY too many people take the lump sum when, in fact, they really should take the annuity. If you take the lump sum and invest it well you will very likely give yourself a higher return than if you had simply taken the return offered by the annuity. Unfortunately, most people who take the lump sum blow it and wind up miserable, broke and buried in debt. Link to post Share on other sites
pokerinc 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Lump sum's the right move. Get a competent money person to help you out, but time value of money and all that, annuity plan is for suckers. Plus a lot of people who take the annual payment end up blowing too much then needing to work out a cash flow deal w/ a company that gouges them, thus making them miserable.Hmmm....maybe this is like that town w/ the crazy stone you to death lottery... Link to post Share on other sites
FileError404 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 I will play tight for the 1st 3 numbers and then depending on stack sizes loosen up on numbers 4 and 5 so I can open shove on the mega ball. Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Lump sum's the right move. Get a competent money person to help you out, but time value of money and all that, annuity plan is for suckers. Plus a lot of people who take the annual payment end up blowing too much then needing to work out a cash flow deal w/ a company that gouges them, thus making them miserable.Hmmm....maybe this is like that town w/ the crazy stone you to death lottery...my understanding is that lump sum is not the correct move. if you choose annuity there are annuity companies that will buy the annuity from you for more than you would recieve in lump sum. then you invest that money.i've heard statistics that 90% of people who win the lottery declare bankruptcy (sp?) within five years. i don't know if we ever discussed it but the largest single jackpot winner of all time was chapter 11 (?) in right around a year. Link to post Share on other sites
DmsTips 0 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS. Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS.don't hold back, tell us how you really feel.you'd rather we talk food, jamie gold, and someone being at a final table? Link to post Share on other sites
ricker 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS.you're a happy person aren't you? Link to post Share on other sites
rocksquid 50 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS.the lottery is +ev for the schools that get a cut.turn that frown upside down. Link to post Share on other sites
rgold79 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 my understanding is that lump sum is not the correct move. if you choose annuity there are annuity companies that will buy the annuity from you for more than you would recieve in lump sum. then you invest that money.i've heard statistics that 90% of people who win the lottery declare bankruptcy (sp?) within five years. i don't know if we ever discussed it but the largest single jackpot winner of all time was chapter 11 (?) in right around a year.This is because a competent investor should be able to generate a higher return than the annuity offers. Most people are not competent investors, and most people do not have the foresight/intelligence to contact an investment professional when they win. That kind of money should provide more than enough for a person to safeguard his family for the next 200 years. It's sad to see what happens to some of these people.you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS.My guess is you won the lottery and lost the ticket somehow. Bitter much? We're dealing with big numbers here, but the expectation is positive. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 you guys are ****ing idiots. I hate you. The lottery will never be +Ev, this is the worst post I have ever seen. MOD PLEASE DELETE AND BAN THESE ****ING RETARDS.Any lottery with jackpotting prices can be +EV. The suckers put in the -EV money building the jackpot, at some point it becomes +EV to buy a ticket. However, the increase in entries and hence chance of splitting probably drops it back down.The trivial example is say I offer a game in which you pay me $2. I flip a coin if it's heads I give you $3 (ie your stake plus one dollar) if it's tails you get nothing. Dumb game for you (great game for me) That's basically the lottery where only 50% of the takings enter the prize pool. But say I change the game you still pay $2 but if win you win $3 plus the jackpot. If the coin comes up tail you get nothing and I pocket $1.50 and add 50c to the jackpot. The jackpot resets to 0 when someone wins. Now it's +EV to play, as long as the previous three games came up tails - since you now have a 50% chance of winning $4.50 for your $2 investment... 10 seconds of thinking (as opposed to my 5 minutes of typing would show you that this is how jackpots work).Note, the mega millions isn't at that point yet. Assuming you take the lump sum payout (do you really want to wait for it to trickle in as the US dollar tanks?) that cuts the prize by 50% instantly (the advertised amount takes into account interest earnings on the yet to be paid out sum, inflating it significantly). So unless you have $175 million in tax write offs handy you'll be taking home way less than the break even point EV wise. Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 the lottery is +ev for the schools that get a cut.turn that frown upside down.there's very few states where this worked. what basically happened is the states went "if we institute a lottery the proceeds will go to schools and our schools will be rich, and what ended up happening is they took away other funding so that the school's budgets stayed the same (or in some cases, even decreased). Link to post Share on other sites
DmsTips 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 This is because a competent investor should be able to generate a higher return than the annuity offers. Most people are not competent investors, and most people do not have the foresight/intelligence to contact an investment professional when they win. That kind of money should provide more than enough for a person to safeguard his family for the next 200 years. It's sad to see what happens to some of these people.My guess is you won the lottery and lost the ticket somehow. Bitter much? We're dealing with big numbers here, but the expectation is positive.How is it +EV? You are assuming that the chance of winning the jackpot IS the "jackpot in $$":1. WHY THE **** WOULD YOU EVER ASSUME SUCH A ****ING RETARDED THING. You are a god damn idiot and probably a fish. The chances of guessing ALL the numbers needed to hit the jackpot is more than 176,000,000:1 you ****ing dolt. What ****ing ****-*** mom raised such a ****ing idiot of a kid. EDIT:: this isn't me, my roomate saw this post and doesn't have an account and decided to post on mine. I'm gonna let him run with it though. I haven't really looked into but i'm assuming the lottery is never +ev. Link to post Share on other sites
ricker 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 How is it +EV? You are assuming that the chance of winning the jackpot IS the "jackpot in $$":1. WHY THE **** WOULD YOU EVER ASSUME SUCH A ****ING RETARDED THING. You are a god damn idiot and probably a fish. The chances of guessing ALL the numbers needed to hit the jackpot is more than 176,000,000:1 you ****ing dolt. What ****ing ****-*** mom raised such a ****ing idiot of a kid. you're my favorite new RKIGSI like people that are generally unhappy in their life and take it out on someone by yelling at someone for their God given right to take a pile of money and set it on fire...... Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 How is it +EV? You are assuming that the chance of winning the jackpot IS the "jackpot in $$":1. WHY THE **** WOULD YOU EVER ASSUME SUCH A ****ING RETARDED THING. You are a god damn idiot and probably a fish. The chances of guessing ALL the numbers needed to hit the jackpot is more than 176,000,000:1 you ****ing dolt. What ****ing ****-*** mom raised such a ****ing idiot of a kid. That's right 176,000,000:1 is the odds, but the payout is 370,000,00:1. Do the math, retard.I already mentioned taxes and lump sum issues, but lets keep it simple for the stupid. Link to post Share on other sites
canuck89 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Hmmm....maybe this is like that town w/ the crazy stone you to death lottery...I remember reading that story last year.....good read! Link to post Share on other sites
socalpoker_j 1 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 He must of taken a recent bad beating while trying to play the premium hand 9-2os to a pf shove. Link to post Share on other sites
rgold79 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 How is it +EV? You are assuming that the chance of winning the jackpot IS the "jackpot in $$":1. WHY THE **** WOULD YOU EVER ASSUME SUCH A ****ING RETARDED THING. You are a god damn idiot and probably a fish. The chances of guessing ALL the numbers needed to hit the jackpot is more than 176,000,000:1 you ****ing dolt. What ****ing ****-*** mom raised such a ****ing idiot of a kid. EDIT:: this isn't me, my roomate saw this post and doesn't have an account and decided to post on mine. I'm gonna let him run with it though. I haven't really looked into but i'm assuming the lottery is never +ev. Can you tell him to bypass the filter? I want to know what "****-***" is so I can call my Mom and find out if she is one.By the way, someone with better math skills than I have can show you why this is +EV, but this article does a pretty good job of explaining. Edit: Actually this is the link: http://www.slate.com/id/114577/ Link to post Share on other sites
DmsTips 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 He must of taken a recent bad beating while trying to play the premium hand 9-2os to a pf shove.HEY the 92o is my fav. hand, not his. I think he likes AA or something. He's pretty much DONE posting on my account though, he'll have to get his own. Link to post Share on other sites
cwik 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Can you tell him to bypass the filter? I want to know what "****-***" is so I can call my Mom and find out if she is one.By the way, someone with better math skills than I have can show you why this is +EV, but this article does a pretty good job of explaining. Edit: Actually this is the link: http://www.slate.com/id/114577/ Interesting, i woulda been one of the ones who said it was always -EV (because of shares), without reading that article (assuming he did his math right). I guess a good analogy would be in limit hold'em where once the pot is built enough, two different people can both be betting at the same pot and both have +EV expectations. Link to post Share on other sites
spikymarv99 0 Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Spent 100 bucks on tickets. If I win, I will sleep more Link to post Share on other sites
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