Set On Scary Board Check Up

[beans422 0]

Mirage $10/20 9 handedHero is in mp1 with 8h8c.Hero opens, sb calls, bb calls.Flop : 9h 8s 6hsb bets, bb raise, hero 3 bet, sb 4 bets, bb calls, hero caps, sb calls, bb calls.Turn : 5dsb bets, bb calls, hero calls.River 10hsb bets, bb calls, hero folds.sb is a solid tight player, bb is a weak tight player.I don't think either of them had 99 and didn't reraise since I was playing pretty loose. Having equity on the flop, I decided to play my set aggressively. Horrible turn card and worse river. Anyone play flop differently?

[akishore 0]

You played the hand well except that you might consider NOT capping the flop if you think doing so prevents the SB from leading a brick turn (you want to be raising a brick turn).Aseem

[Knight_Owl 0]

I would've played it the same. Play your set fast. Which you did. well played.

[CoranMoran 0]

I call SB's flop 4bet.And plan on raising a decent turn card.By the river, every draw has hit.And both of your opponents say that they still like their hands.I still overcall.--cm

[beans422 0]

I call SB's flop 4bet.And plan on raising a decent turn card.By the river, every draw has hit.And both of your opponents say that they still like their hands.I still overcall.--cm

Overcall, really? sb I know very well and to think he'd go that far with 2 pair or top set even is out of the question. I guess I put bb on 2 pair or pair with a draw. On the turn, the open ender got there and on the river the flush got there and meanwhile the solid tight player in the sb is still betting into 2 players and the bb is calling him down. I don't think I can justify calling here. On the flop, I had equity, on the turn I had odds and on the river I think I'm just beat.

[CoranMoran 0]

Overcall, really?

I'm not saying it's right.I'm just saying I do it.Often.--cm

[Zach6668 513]

I'm not saying it's right.I'm just saying I do it.Often.--cm

Yep. I can't fold getting 15-1 on the river.

[akishore 0]

I'm normally a big advocate of calling on the river, and this is admittedly pretty close given the odds but more importantly the fact that you're closing the action, BUT I would fold this river -- four-straight (two possible ways of making a straight), the flush got there, a good/tight player is showing strength, AND a weak/tight player isn't folding on this horrendous board. I think we're beat more than 15/16 times, but it's close.Aseem

[Knight_Owl 0]

I think we're beat more than 15/16 times, but it's close.Aseem

thats close ? 15/16 is close? lolI"m a big advocate on saving bets. This is one of those situaations.Every bet saved, is a bet earned.gl 2 u!

[akishore 0]

thats close ? 15/16 is close? lolI"m a big advocate on saving bets. This is one of those situaations.Every bet saved, is a bet earned.gl 2 u!

this is mind-boggling how far off you can be in your logic.1. yes, it's close. close has nothing to do with the probability -- it could be 3/4 and be close, or it could be 29/30 and be close. what defines how close it is, is the probability in relation to the pot odds. can you seriously say with certainty that we're good less than 1/16 times? how the heck does one even measure this statistic? it's only based on intuition, and as the pot odds get bigger and bigger, it's harder to say with certainty that we should fold, because we have to be correct so seldom to still show a profit, and it's ridiculously hard to pinpoint our strength to the order of 1/16 or 1/20 or 1/25, etc.2. "every bet saved is a bet earned". this sounds nice (partly because it's a variant of the famous american proverb), but in reality, using "logic" like this in poker is a pretty terrible idea. i was in a hand earlier where i three-bet a guy with AK, he capped, and then three-bet me on a A92 flop. should i fold here in fear of AA since a bet saved is a bet earned?aseem

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

Good fold. They always have it in the Mirage 10.

[Knight_Owl 0]

this is mind-boggling how far off you can be in your logic.1. yes, it's close. close has nothing to do with the probability -- it could be 3/4 and be close, or it could be 29/30 and be close. what defines how close it is, is the probability in relation to the pot odds. can you seriously say with certainty that we're good less than 1/16 times? how the heck does one even measure this statistic? it's only based on intuition, and as the pot odds get bigger and bigger, it's harder to say with certainty that we should fold, because we have to be correct so seldom to still show a profit, and it's ridiculously hard to pinpoint our strength to the order of 1/16 or 1/20 or 1/25, etc.2. "every bet saved is a bet earned". this sounds nice (partly because it's a variant of the famous american proverb), but in reality, using "logic" like this in poker is a pretty terrible idea. i was in a hand earlier where i three-bet a guy with AK, he capped, and then three-bet me on a A92 flop. should i fold here in fear of AA since a bet saved is a bet earned?aseem

everyone has there own way in approaching this game. If you want to view limit as "well its just one more bet" then so be it.

[iggymcfly 0]

I know people tend to play more tight-passive live, and it's a lot easier to get reads on people playing with them live too, but I still think you have to call this against almost everyone. Unless SB's super weak-tight, (and you didn't describe him as such), you can't lay this down.Sure, 90% of the time, one of your opponents will have the flush or the straight, but that tenth time, they'll turn over something like 66 and 98, and you'll be losing out on 6 BB more than you would have "earned" the other nine hands combined. LHE's not about saving bets, it's about pushing marginal edges and gaining value when you're ahead.

[looshle 6]

I call. I'm not folding a set on the river for 1 bet getting 15-1 and closing the action.Ever.Even bottom set.

[Actuary 3]

I can't discount 2 two pairs enough to fold the river.it's not a big mistake eithr way in long runI cap flop, too******************************8

Overcall, really? sb I know very well and to think he'd go that far with 2 pair or top set even is out of the question.

well..then, fold river.If you are 100%.There should be no question and you can cut post off at flop and ask about that.

[MrNiceGuy 0]

To me, it seems like SB's most likely hand is 66, given the way he played, with 99 or something like Ah7h also reasonable, an overpair would also be possible, and least likely would be a hand like two high hearts, A7, T7, 87, 97, 76, etc. I think we're looking at 66 at least about 25% of the time here.BB could have a number of hands here, but if he's a weak-tight player, after his flop raise, top-pair/two-pair hands seem a lot more likely than a flush or straight. I think we're ahead of BB at least 1/2 the time.So, I think we have the best hand at least about 1/4*1/2= 1/8 times, which would make folding a big mistake on the river. Maybe I've overestimated our chances, but I doubt I've overestimated them that badly.As for the flop, I think calling the flop 4-bet and raising a safe turn is probably the best approach.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I call. I'm not folding a set on the river for 1 bet getting 15-1 and closing the action.Ever.Even bottom set.

So? A good player might. I've talked about this before, and people usually listen, but:The biggest impediment- for decent players- when they want to move up is this attitude. Don't make stupid generalizations. And, if you do make them, don't follow them blindly, stupidly, ignorantly.I didn't even look at this hand, looshle, but your comment is just ABSURD! AB-SURD! See how I divided the syllables, thereby increasing the emphasis? Wang