Official Offseason Thread

[mcpickl 0]

sort of out of the loop, but what happened to papelbon as closer?

Sox doctors believe its better for his longterm health to start rather than close

[timwakefield 68]

Sox doctors believe its better for his longterm health to start rather than close

I don't think that's the main reason, and while I don't keep up TOO much, I hadn't even heard that. The reason is that, as far as potential, a starter can go further than a closer, and the Sox think Papelbon has the potential to be an ace. In other words, if you've got Roger Clemens closing games in 1985, don't you think it's a smart move to make him a starter for 1986?

[mcpickl 0]

I don't think that's the main reason, and while I don't keep up TOO much, I hadn't even heard that. The reason is that, as far as potential, a starter can go further than a closer, and the Sox think Papelbon has the potential to be an ace. In other words, if you've got Roger Clemens closing games in 1985, don't you think it's a smart move to make him a starter for 1986?

bolded #1: Theo Epstein announced in a press conference near the end of last season that Papelbon would be moved to the rotation because the Sox doctors advised its better for him longterm. Every time he's been asked about it since he's said the same thing.bolded #2: Yes

[timwakefield 68]

bolded #1: Theo Epstein announced in a press conference near the end of last season that Papelbon would be moved to the rotation because the Sox doctors advised its better for him longterm. Every time he's been asked about it since he's said the same thing.

Okay fair enough, but also remember that pretty much everybody in Boston has been saying that Papelbon would only close for one year, because everybody (front office included) wants to see what he can do as a starter. After the 2005 season (when he threw 34 innings in a couple starts and some relief appearances) people were saying he looked like Clemens circa 1984 which is why I made the comparison, and which is why he'd be starting whether or not it was healthier for him.

[mcpickl 0]

Okay fair enough, but also remember that pretty much everybody in Boston has been saying that Papelbon would only close for one year, because everybody (front office included) wants to see what he can do as a starter. After the 2005 season (when he threw 34 innings in a couple starts and some relief appearances) people were saying he looked like Clemens circa 1984 which is why I made the comparison, and which is why he'd be starting whether or not it was healthier for him.

I believe that was the thought pre-2006. Since he had an incredible year as a closer and they now have a glaring hole at the end of the bullpen while they appear to be in good shape in the rotation, I believe if health was not an issue then he would still be the closer.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I believe that was the thought pre-2006. Since he had an incredible year as a closer and they now have a glaring hole at the end of the bullpen while they appear to be in good shape in the rotation, I believe if health was not an issue then he would still be the closer.

Help a brother out. What is it, exactly, about his health that suggests pitching 200+ innings will be better for his health- both in the long term and the short term- than throwing out of the back of the bullpen?Wang

[mrdannyg 274]

Let me preface this by saying I love Vernon Wells. He's the #2 CF in baseball right now, behind Beltran, IMO. He's the Jays' best player, by all accounts a stand up dude, and normally I'd love the prospect of keeping him around for his entire career.All that being said, this is a horrible contract.We don't need to commit this kind of money or so many years to anyone right now, not even our MVP. There will be a bumper crop of free agent outfielders next offseason, so this deal was completely unnecessary at this stage of the game. Even if Wells were to walk for nothing next winter, it would not be overly difficult for JP to find an adequate replacement, probably at a much lower price (assuming the market doesn't go even further completely insane next year). I don't see why JP didn't wait until at least the trade deadline this season. If we're serious contenders, then we make a run at a title with Wells this year, and try and re-up him in the offseason. If we're out of the playoff race, we trade him for a young arm and a prospect, sign a replacement OF, and go to war in 2008 with a better overall team, not to mention more spending money.We don't know all the details of the contract yet, so there could still be some hope. If the contract (read: the $18M/year) doesn't kick in till next year, I like it a little more. That would leave us some cash to potentially take a run at Zito (unlikely) or pick up a solid arm during the year via trade. If the contract is backloaded, I also like it more, for many of the same reasons.All in all, it's nice to see the Jays lock up a fan favourite and potential MVP candidate. I just really hope it doesn't handcuff the team from making other moves towards winning a title in the next couple years (pretty much our window at this point).

well said, though i'm not sure I agree. We aren't going to get Beltran or Jones, and I believe Wells is younger than either of them (I didn't check). That makes him the most valuable player at an extremely valuable position. Sabermetrically, he is not overpaid. Without Wells long-term, the Jays are not likely to be real contenders, and can't hope to acquire big free agents in the future, except by overpaying.I'm pretty sure I read that the contract is heavily backloaded as well. I believe he makes between half and 1.5 million the first two years, then some big numbers, then it levels out.

Y'all suckas be forgettin Andruw Jones. His offensive numbers are on par with Wells and Beltran, and his defense is better.

is he? i don't have BP or anything - are Jones' defensive numbers better than Wells'?

[TMoneyBags 0]

Yes, I would say that Jones is superior to Wells defensively but it is a hard thing to say. Maybe he isn't anymore.

[timwakefield 68]

is he? i don't have BP or anything - are Jones' defensive numbers better than Wells'?

Ok well I don't have any defensive NUMBERS for him, but he's widely regarded as one of the top fielders at his position, if not the stand-alone best.

[timwakefield 68]

I believe that was the thought pre-2006. Since he had an incredible year as a closer and they now have a glaring hole at the end of the bullpen while they appear to be in good shape in the rotation, I believe if health was not an issue then he would still be the closer.

Yeah but the rotation looks so good partly because of the potential it has with Papelbon in it. With Pap:SchillingMatsuzakaPapelbonWakefieldBeckett Without Pap:Schilling MatsuzakaWakefieldBeckettLester/ClementIf (and it's a big if, I'll admit) Papelbon has some of the same success as a starter as he did last year as a closer, the Sox will potentially have 3 aces. Very much just potentially though, since Schilling is old and Daisuke is untested in the US.edit: Sorry, that was supposed to be all in one post.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Help a brother out. What is it, exactly, about his health that suggests pitching 200+ innings will be better for his health- both in the long term and the short term- than throwing out of the back of the bullpen?Wang

Still want an answer, Sox fans.

[mcpickl 0]

Help a brother out. What is it, exactly, about his health that suggests pitching 200+ innings will be better for his health- both in the long term and the short term- than throwing out of the back of the bullpen?Wang

the doctors believe a set routine of pitching every five(or six with offdays and the like) days is better for his longterm health than the possibility of pitching every day. They think he needs to be on a stretching/strengthing program between starts to lessen the probability of his shoulder coming back out of its socket(ummm, ouch?). Since relieving you need to be prepared for the possibility of pitching every day, he wouldn't be able to stick to a program.

[mcpickl 0]

Yeah but the rotation looks so good partly because of the potential it has with Papelbon in it. With Pap:SchillingMatsuzakaPapelbonWakefieldBeckett Without Pap:Schilling MatsuzakaWakefieldBeckettLester/ClementIf (and it's a big if, I'll admit) Papelbon has some of the same success as a starter as he did last year as a closer, the Sox will potentially have 3 aces. Very much just potentially though, since Schilling is old and Daisuke is untested in the US.edit: Sorry, that was supposed to be all in one post.

agreed the rotation looks better with Papelbon in it but so does the bullpen, no?rotation Schilling Matsuzaka Beckett Papelbon Wakefield bullpen Lester/Hansack/etc. Okajima Delcarmen Hansen Romero Donnelly Timlin or rotationSchillingMatsuzakaBeckettWakefieldLester/Hansack/etc.bullpenOkajimaDelcarmenHansenRomeroDonnellyTimlinPapelbon I'd agree longterm youd want Papelbon in the rotation, but this year I'd feel much better with him at the end of the bullpen since thats where the glaring need is. I think even without the health issue, he would be in the rotation in 2008 regardless to replace Schilling.Again, rather moot point since they think he needs to be in the rotation

[InsanityCubed 0]

well said, though i'm not sure I agree. We aren't going to get Beltran or Jones, and I believe Wells is younger than either of them (I didn't check). That makes him the most valuable player at an extremely valuable position. Sabermetrically, he is not overpaid. Without Wells long-term, the Jays are not likely to be real contenders, and can't hope to acquire big free agents in the future, except by overpaying.I'm pretty sure I read that the contract is heavily backloaded as well. I believe he makes between half and 1.5 million the first two years, then some big numbers, then it levels out.is he? i don't have BP or anything - are Jones' defensive numbers better than Wells'?

Turns out the big money doesn't kick in till 2008, and the contract is heavily backloaded. This makes the deal much, much better, as we will still have the cash (and the young players) to go out and improve the team through trades. My main problem with the deal was that a small downgrade at CF (or RF, if Rios were to move to CF) would have been better for the team if it allowed us to make a major upgrade in the pitching staff. Now, it appears we can have the best CF in the AL, and still have the money to pursue other moves. R. JohnsonA. RiosV. WellsF. ThomasT. GlausL. OverbayA. HillG. ZaunR. Clayton/othersI like.

[wsox8 10]

My Sox traded Brandon McCarthy for three Ranger minor leaguers, John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner. I hope Kenny Williams knows what he's doing trading away who was going to be our future #5 starter. I think Danks is pretty good but I don't know a whole lot about the others. http://www.canada.com/topics/sports/story....dcd&k=21210

[mrdannyg 274]

Turns out the big money doesn't kick in till 2008, and the contract is heavily backloaded. This makes the deal much, much better, as we will still have the cash (and the young players) to go out and improve the team through trades. My main problem with the deal was that a small downgrade at CF (or RF, if Rios were to move to CF) would have been better for the team if it allowed us to make a major upgrade in the pitching staff. Now, it appears we can have the best CF in the AL, and still have the money to pursue other moves. R. JohnsonA. RiosV. WellsF. ThomasT. GlausL. OverbayA. HillG. ZaunR. Clayton/othersI like.

according to BP, Russ Adams had the worst VORP of any (AL?) shortstop. so what are the Jays going to do with him? Give up?There's really no place anymore, even as a utility guy, and he doesn't hit or field particularly well, or play other positions. Hill is clearly superior at 2B. Clayton is obviously no great shakes, but at least he can field, and isn't the worst #9 hitter around. Gregg Zaun will continue to clear tall buildings and single leap, and we should be even better than last year.

[InsanityCubed 0]

according to BP, Russ Adams had the worst VORP of any (AL?) shortstop. so what are the Jays going to do with him? Give up?There's really no place anymore, even as a utility guy, and he doesn't hit or field particularly well, or play other positions. Hill is clearly superior at 2B. Clayton is obviously no great shakes, but at least he can field, and isn't the worst #9 hitter around. Gregg Zaun will continue to clear tall buildings and single leap, and we should be even better than last year.

Adams is done. He's shown the occasional flash of promise at the plate, but in the field he's never looked even remotely comfortable. Not a major leaguer in my book.

[greatwhite 0]

Turns out the big money doesn't kick in till 2008, and the contract is heavily backloaded. This makes the deal much, much better, as we will still have the cash (and the young players) to go out and improve the team through trades. My main problem with the deal was that a small downgrade at CF (or RF, if Rios were to move to CF) would have been better for the team if it allowed us to make a major upgrade in the pitching staff. Now, it appears we can have the best CF in the AL, and still have the money to pursue other moves. R. JohnsonA. RiosV. WellsF. ThomasT. GlausL. OverbayA. HillG. ZaunR. Clayton/othersI like.

That's good lineup, but it's still only the 3rd best in the division.

[MDXS 0]

according to BP, Russ Adams had the worst VORP of any (AL?) shortstop. so what are the Jays going to do with him? Give up?There's really no place anymore, even as a utility guy, and he doesn't hit or field particularly well, or play other positions. Hill is clearly superior at 2B. Clayton is obviously no great shakes, but at least he can field, and isn't the worst #9 hitter around. Gregg Zaun will continue to clear tall buildings and single leap, and we should be even better than last year.

Where did you see that about Adams? I thought there was no way any AL shortstop could possibly be worse than Angel Berroa, and sure enough Angle racked up a -17 or so VORP. There were two worse shortstops, but both National League. I scanned for a while, but didn't see Adams and didn't want to wade through 25 more pages of stats.

[mrdannyg 274]

That's good lineup, but it's still only the 3rd best in the division.

true, but not far behind. I don't know what the Yankees opening day will look like, but the Jays might be better. Defensively, we should be better than both teams.We need our pitchers to stay healthy to be even close, especially without Speier.

Where did you see that about Adams? I thought there was no way any AL shortstop could possibly be worse than Angel Berroa, and sure enough Angle racked up a -17 or so VORP. There were two worse shortstops, but both National League. I scanned for a while, but didn't see Adams and didn't want to wade through 25 more pages of stats.

On the front page of BP, they have 'best of' and 'worst of' lists - he was on the top. it was around -17 or so. i'm pretty sure is eQa was below .200, and he made about 25 errors, with poor range.

[greatwhite 0]

true, but not far behind. I don't know what the Yankees opening day will look like, but the Jays might be better. Defensively, we should be better than both teams.We need our pitchers to stay healthy to be even close, especially without Speier.On the front page of BP, they have 'best of' and 'worst of' lists - he was on the top. it was around -17 or so. i'm pretty sure is eQa was below .200, and he made about 25 errors, with poor range.

I highly doubt the Blue Jays will have a better lineup then the Yankees on opening day. A lot would have to happen for that to be possible. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Arod, Giambi, Matsui, Cano, Posada, ?. That's the best lineup in baseball. Last year Toronto was in the middle of the pack with runs scored in the AL and I don't have much reason to believe they will be any better than 5th this year. I also don't feel that their defense is going to make this up.

[InsanityCubed 0]

That's good lineup, but it's still only the 3rd best in the division.

Yes, I'd much rather have Ortiz, Manny, Varitek and nobody else. Boston beat Toronto in precicely 2 offensive categories last year: R (by 11), and OBP (by.003).

I highly doubt the Blue Jays will have a better lineup then the Yankees on opening day. A lot would have to happen for that to be possible. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Arod, Giambi, Matsui, Cano, Posada, ?. That's the best lineup in baseball. Last year Toronto was in the middle of the pack with runs scored in the AL and I don't have much reason to believe they will be any better than 5th this year. I also don't feel that their defense is going to make this up.

I'm not exactly sure how the Yank's lineup looks 1-9, but a fair guess vs. the JaysJohnny Damon = Reed Johnson (Reed is the most underrated player in the AL, I will not argue this.)Derek Jeter > Alex RiosAJob = Vernon Wells (I'll give AJob the benefit of the doubt due to his resume, but Wells was better last year)Jason Giambi = Frank Thomas (Coinflip, Thomas' health vs. the likelyhood that Giambi gets caught with whatever he's juicing with these days... and his health)Hideki Matsui < Troy Glaus (Unless Matsui returns to 2004 form)Bobby Abreu < Lyle Overbay (Surprising, but true)Robinson Cano > Aaron Hill (No real argument here)Jorge Posada > Gregg Zaun (ditto)whoever vs. whoever (doesn't really matter)Closer than you thought? RS was pretty much the only area in which the Jays offense was mediocre last year, we didn't hit too well with RISP (a luck factor, largely), and we hit into too many double plays (also luck, but coachable). Not saying our lineup is better, but they aren't worlds apart.The Jays also have a massive defensive edge, and pitching is about even (both teams have issues), but we're just talking about hitting, right?

[greatwhite 0]

Yes, I'd much rather have Ortiz, Manny, Varitek and nobody else. Boston beat Toronto in precicely 2 offensive categories last year: R (by 11), and OBP (by.003). I'm not exactly sure how the Yank's lineup looks 1-9, but a fair guess vs. the JaysJohnny Damon = Reed Johnson (Reed is the most underrated player in the AL, I will not argue this.)Derek Jeter > Alex RiosAJob = Vernon Wells (I'll give AJob the benefit of the doubt due to his resume, but Wells was better last year)Jason Giambi = Frank Thomas (Coinflip, Thomas' health vs. the likelyhood that Giambi gets caught with whatever he's juicing with these days... and his health)Hideki Matsui < Troy Glaus (Unless Matsui returns to 2004 form)Bobby Abreu < Lyle Overbay (Surprising, but true)Robinson Cano > Aaron Hill (No real argument here)Jorge Posada > Gregg Zaun (ditto)whoever vs. whoever (doesn't really matter)Closer than you thought? RS was pretty much the only area in which the Jays offense was mediocre last year, we didn't hit too well with RISP (a luck factor, largely), and we hit into too many double plays (also luck, but coachable). Not saying our lineup is better, but they aren't worlds apart.The Jays also have a massive defensive edge, and pitching is about even (both teams have issues), but we're just talking about hitting, right?

I don't think it's a good idea to compare the players by what you think the order in the lineup is going to be. Arod does not bat third. However, if you want to compare these lineups I think the Yanks are better in every position except for maybe Thomas over Giambi and Arod vs Wells. It's so hard to judge Arod and how valuable he actually is to our team.

[greatwhite 0]

Also, Reed Johnson is not the most underrated player in the AL. Wells might be that, but by no means is Johnson. Personally, I think that it's Michael Young, but he got some publicity from the All Star game this year. Johnson is a nice player, but he's nothing too special.

[MDXS 0]

On the front page of BP, they have 'best of' and 'worst of' lists - he was on the top. it was around -17 or so. i'm pretty sure is eQa was below .200, and he made about 25 errors, with poor range.

Jesus god. Maybe I just missed him. I just looked him up. He was listed as a second baseman. He made the last page, but not as bad as Berroa....or John MacDonald. Though the way he played, he'd give him a run for his money if he played a whole season.