How Hard Is Too Hard?

[BrnngLeaves 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Hero ($50)Button ($18.35)SB ($117.15)BB ($49.50)UTG ($37.45)MP ($51.85)Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 , T . Hero posts a blind of $0.50. UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero (poster) checks, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: ($2.50) 7 , 4 , 3 (5 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.Turn: ($2.50) 9 (5 players)SB bets $0.5, BB calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50.River: ($5) 6 (5 players)SB bets $1.5, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero raises to $49This is my first hand at the table, i don't have any reads or stats on this player. Pushing this hard is something i tend to do alot at these stakes, when I have the nuts and I think the other player has a good hand. Maybe I'm too greedy, sometimes they call and sometimes they fold. Obviously I'm not getting any action unless he has the 5, but in your experiences at these stakes, or at other stakes, how often will people call this massive overbet with just the 5?

[Fupo 0]

Not often at all when the pot is that small in my experience. Way more often if the opponent is a bit short though. Don't have the patience to wait for the blinds?

[BrnngLeaves 0]

I'll always post in the cutoff.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Too hard.I see the overbet with the nuts strategy more and more these days, but you need to use hand context to make it profitable. The villain wasn't acting like he had anything more than 2 pair, so I don't think that he was paying off any significant raise there. Honestly just above a min raise was probably all you would've made, but you swung for the fences when all you needed was a single.

[fckthis 0]

You're just giving your opponent a chance to lay down the worst hand. Good job.

[BIG_L_RIP 0]

Heh, I was messing around in low stakes last night, saw almost the exact same hand. Guy overbet his entire stack of like $50 into a $4 pot, eventually got called by 2 pair.Mr. Two Pair could muster nothing else in the chat box except to say "Why did you do that?"

[MasterLJ 0]

At those stakes, 2 pair calls A LOT. A set calls every time.I did something similar when I flopped quads and the river brought 4 to the straight on the board, I got called.Let's say you raise to $4.50 on the river and assume you get called 100% of the time if you raise to $4.50, you make an extra $3. $49 - $1.5 = $47.5$47.5/3 = approx. 16You guys who think this is too hard at those stakes are saying you won't get a call 1 in 16 times?Nice hand, well played.

[fckthis 0]

But we're assuming this guy has two pair. Why? I put him on a pair at best.

[David_Nicoson 1]

But we're assuming this guy has two pair. Why? I put him on a pair at best.

We might as well assume he has a good hand, because the amount he can pay us with one pair is insignificant to our total expectation.

[MasterLJ 0]

But we're assuming this guy has two pair. Why? I put him on a pair at best.

I assume nothing about his hand, just that 2 pair calls more often than not and a set almost always calls. In general, you will get a call here 1 in 16 times.Also, a 5 is going to call as well.So many hands here that will call at these stakes.

[shpaget 0]

I assume nothing about his hand, just that 2 pair calls more often than not and a set almost always calls. In general, you will get a call here 1 in 16 times.Also, a 5 is going to call as well.So many hands here that will call at these stakes.

Honestly - at these stakes, A9 will call you, especially if he's a habitual bluffer himself....bluffers tend to think everyone else is always bluffing, and always regard a large bet with suspicion, seeing it as the ultimate strong=weak.

[fckthis 0]

Lets assume we could eek out another 10bb, 15/16times. The pot has 10bb, so in total we win 20bb 15 times out of 16. 20x15=300bb won by betting $5 on that river.If we get called 1/16 times, the 10BB in the pot +, we gain 100BB, +150, for the other 15times we dont get called. In total 260BB. So by your calculations, and Im not a big math guy, it looks like its more EV to value bet, then push.(ps, plz dont hate if somehow I messed this up)

[David_Nicoson 1]

Lets assume we could eek out another 10bb, 15/16times. The pot has 10bb, so in total we win 20bb 15 times out of 16. 20x15=300bb won by betting $5 on that river.If we get called 1/16 times, the 10BB in the pot +, we gain 100BB, +150, for the other 15times we dont get called. In total 260BB. So by your calculations, and Im not a big math guy, it looks like its more EV to value bet, then push.(ps, plz dont hate if somehow I messed this up)

I don't think we get calls for the $5 that often. Sometimes he's bluffing. Sometimes he folds a pair.

[fckthis 0]

I don't think we get calls for the $5 that often. Sometimes he's bluffing. Sometimes he folds a pair.

Fine, even if we bring the number of times down, the amount can be increased. In reality, its more likely that its a small edge by value betting, as opposed to pushing.

[MasterLJ 0]

Lets assume we could eek out another 10bb, 15/16times. The pot has 10bb, so in total we win 20bb 15 times out of 16. 20x15=300bb won by betting $5 on that river.If we get called 1/16 times, the 10BB in the pot +, we gain 100BB, +150, for the other 15times we dont get called. In total 260BB. So by your calculations, and Im not a big math guy, it looks like its more EV to value bet, then push.(ps, plz dont hate if somehow I messed this up)

Raising to $5 on that river only nets you $3.50, since that is the amount SB must call.If you can get called for an extra $3.50 15/16 times, it's more profitable than pushing.$3.50 x 15 = $52.5Your all in is for $47.50 more.If you raise to $4.50 on that river ($3 extra) and are called 15/16 times, it is not as profitable as pushing and getting called 1/16 times.$3 x 15 = $45Intuitively, between getting called for a smallish bet 15/16 times is far less likely than getting called for one huge overbet 1/16 times.

[shpaget 0]

Raising to $5 on that river only nets you $3.50, since that is the amount SB must call.If you can get called for an extra $3.50 15/16 times, it's more profitable than pushing.$3.50 x 15 = $52.5Your all in is for $47.50 more.If you raise to $4.50 on that river ($3 extra) and are called 15/16 times, it is not as profitable as pushing and getting called 1/16 times.$3 x 15 = $45Intuitively, between getting called for a smallish bet 15/16 times is far less likely than getting called for one huge overbet 1/16 times.

I agree with this...it's an awfully huge assumption that we'll get called the other 15 times...even with a minraise....I think you have to figure that at the bare minimum, best case scenario, he folds twice because he has absolute air, making the $5 raise less profitable than the $49 raise. (working on the assumption that he calls $49 1/16, which is not unreasonable)How about we raise to $10 (essentially potting it)?That gives him $8.50 to call (half the pot).We need him to call that 6/16 times to make it more profitable than the 1/16 times he calls the push....bet $11 and he only needs to call 5/16 times.

[fckthis 0]

W.e the case is, if you value bet this properly, you'll make more than pushing. IMO.

[BeaverStyle 1]

If she's in pain, it's too hard.

[Run it Thrice 0]

I'm trying to learn no limit so I wanted to ask about the hand itself.My approach would have been to raise the turn to 4 or 5 bucks, am I an idiot?

[fckthis 0]

I'm trying to learn no limit so I wanted to ask about the hand itself.My approach would have been to raise the turn to 4 or 5 bucks, am I an idiot?

Itd be a semibluff, but you'd have to think you can win it most of the time with that big of a raise. Otherwise, if you're getting called in this spot, when the turn doesnt hit you, you're in a tough situation. Its generally thought, that with one card to come, you should be calling your draws, instead of pumping them.

[reedmcneal 0]

Heh, I was messing around in low stakes last night, saw almost the exact same hand. Guy overbet his entire stack of like $50 into a $4 pot, eventually got called by 2 pair.Mr. Two Pair could muster nothing else in the chat box except to say "Why did you do that?"

This is one of the best reasons for making the massive overbet. People become curious/suspicious when you make an aberrant play. They call because they "know" you are bluffing, or they are just curious what kind of hand you would have to prompt this bet. I think you often get worse hands to call when you overbet a pot because they think you are trying to pull something.Bottom Line: You will get called enough times at these stakes to make this play quite a bit more profitable than a simple value bet.

[MasterLJ 0]

I agree with this...it's an awfully huge assumption that we'll get called the other 15 times...even with a minraise....I think you have to figure that at the bare minimum, best case scenario, he folds twice because he has absolute air, making the $5 raise less profitable than the $49 raise. (working on the assumption that he calls $49 1/16, which is not unreasonable)How about we raise to $10 (essentially potting it)?That gives him $8.50 to call (half the pot).We need him to call that 6/16 times to make it more profitable than the 1/16 times he calls the push....bet $11 and he only needs to call 5/16 times.

You get into Smash strat territoroy with raising to $10.Even at low stakes, calling $8.50 more and calling an all in aren't all that different. As the stakes get higher it's much the same. If they'll call your $10 they'll call your all-in enough times to make jamming the proper move.