how crazy am i?

[Randy Reed 0]

Ok, I've playing real money on line for a year, mostly sng's until the last few months and with the addition of SSHE and TOP under my belt along with a dozen or so other poker books, I decided to imitate smash and work my way up. Then something happened along the way, I got greedy.I got so bored with the low profits at 50/1.00 I started jumping up over my bankroll. I had pretty good success and would equal it with some sng play and have been doing pretty good. Unfortunately, the nature of my actual work is effected by bad weather which we've had a ton of so I've been cashing alot of my winnings out instead of letting it build. So about 3 weeks ago, I got my income tax which gave me a breather and I built it up to about $900. So what do I do? Go play 3/6 of course. Nuts eh? Well, not really. I've been crushing it pretty regularly. I've had a few downward swings, but always get it right back. I've also found that I struggle at 1/2 or even 2/4 since you get drawn out on so much more with junk which really hurts the variance IMHO.Over the last 3 weeks I've cashed out $1500 and payed bills and such which only leaves me about $700 left. So the question, every thing I read flies in the face of playing that limit with that bankroll. Am I just asking for it? Can I sustain the winning? I feel that I have such a solid grip on the game, take notes on all the regulars and have just been doing great there. i'd hate to give it up and frankly, probably can't afford to right now. Oh well, it's been bothering me and if I go down pretty hard I'll have to move to the lower limits to get it back. I just felt I needed to get it out. Should move down or stay? Am I crazy for playing that limit with my bankroll?

[KDawgCometh 2]

you should definetly move down. You won't be able to sustain that win rate at all. Drop down to 1/2 and build yourself up. Not to be a killjoy, but your probably due for a downswing and it'll be eaiser to take at a lower limit. It's ridiculous to think that you can't beat lower limits but can beat higher ones. The short term varience in limit is high, but long term is much different. Its no big deal to drop down, there's no shame in it

[wrto4556 0]

You're not crazy because we've all been there. I lost all my money and know better now.

[Smasharoo 0]

Should move down or stay? Am I crazy for playing that limit with my bankroll?Move down. Yes.The thing people don't seem to realize is that Barry G, or whoever you happen to think the best limit player in the world is, can easily go broke ona short bankroll. You can't controll the variance. Let me say it again.You cannot controll the cariance.You *are* gogin to have 100BB downswings. Not you might, not if you make some mistakes, not if you play in the wrong games, you will.It's just a matter of time.Glad it worked out ok for you, that's a lucky break, frankly. Get $2k together if you want to keep playing $3/$6 but do it at $1/$2.It's not that a big of a deal and will save you from going broke.

[aggyanglr 0]

keep on keeping on.......as they say. make money and TAKE IT OUT.

[pokernoobie 0]

yea move down man or else expect the worst to happen. weve all been there ive played 510 with $50 now that was crazy but it came out good for me but trust me im never doing that again

[swoosh210 0]

$50 to $950 in 72 hours.................. $950 to $0 in 48 hours.. move down my friend.

[ArseneLupin3 0]

there is a probability term that calculates your odds of going broke given a certain winrate, limit, and bankroll.your probability is very high even with a very good winrate.there is a reason that 200-500 bb (usually 300+) is recommended by most authors.

[Smasharoo 0]

there is a probability term that calculates your odds of going broke given a certain winrate, limit, and bankroll. Standard DeviationAllthough your definition is a little kludgy, I think that's what your'e driving at.

[AllenRay4 0]

dont want to be rude but to make matters worse if you are paying bills with your poker earnings...what would happen if you lost it all in a week span...?? that alone should be enough to tell you to move down. of course if you have a side job and poker money is just 'extra' then more power to ya...

[Eclypse 0]

I agree 100% with Smash. You WILL have a 100bb downswing. I have them, Smash has them, even the greatest poker player in the world has them. However, I have had great success with "taking shots". What you do is when you've had a pretty good day at 1/2, say you win $75, you "take a shot" at 3/6 with $50. If you lose the $50, you are done and go back to the 1/2. This has been one of the best bankroll builders for me over the years.Give it a try (just make sure you have the discipline to stop if you lose the $50--that is the key).

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

For 700 bucks, you should be playing 1-2. Just multi-table tightly and play the long term odds. Poker's a long-term game, and someone who grinds it out will make a lot more money than someone who takes chances. I'm working on moving up too, but the way I feel is if I can't beat .50/1 then I shouldn't be playing 1/2. Imagine how much better you'll be if you've built your roll up through attrition and know that much more about beating the weak players that will be at 3/6.

[Randy Reed 0]

Almost by premonition though, I guess I knew it.The same night I came home from work and played 1/2 for oh, let's say an hour. I got bored and a seat a 3/6 opened up and I played for 4 hours, and broke even. Got up early Sunday morning and got another 3 in and wound up $10 to the good. Now during this time I had the worse cards some terrible bad beats and still hung in which made me proud and convinced me I could hang at this limit. I even spent 2 hours at a table with a complete maniac and managed it pretty well, even though I would of been up a few hundred if he hadn't sucked out really bad on a few hands.So Sunday night I come home and jump back in to 3/6 to continue, figuring I'm due. I look and most of the players I've played with so I jump in. Big mistake.First hand...*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BIGYANG [Ad 2d]KTG3: folds ekanes01: folds Lopaka: folds copyright83: folds BIGYANG: calls $3general01: calls $3oscar: calls $3TCaesar: folds Minn Slims: checks *** FLOP *** [Kc 9d 7d]Minn Slims: checks BIGYANG: bets $3general01: calls $3oscar: raises $3 to $6Minn Slims: folds BIGYANG: calls $3general01: raises $3 to $9oscar: raises $3 to $12Betting is cappedBIGYANG: calls $6general01: calls $3*** TURN *** [Kc 9d 7d] [6h]BIGYANG: checks general01: bets $5 and is all-inoscar: raises $1 to $6BIGYANG: calls $6*** RIVER *** [Kc 9d 7d 6h] [6s]BIGYANG: checks oscar: bets $6BIGYANG: folds *** SHOW DOWN ***oscar: shows [Td 8d] (a straight, Six to Ten)oscar collected $2 from side potgeneral01: mucks hand oscar collected $62 from main pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $66 Main pot $62. Side pot $2. | Rake $2 Board [Kc 9d 7d 6h 6s]Oh well, first hand and flush missed, It happens... 3rd hand....*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BIGYANG [Ac Ad] :!: Lopaka: folds copyright83: folds BIGYANG: raises $3 to $6oscar: folds TCaesar: calls $6Minn Slims: folds KTG3: raises $3 to $9ekanes01: folds BIGYANG: raises $3 to $12 (cap that baby!)Betting is cappedTCaesar: calls $6KTG3: calls $3*** FLOP *** [Kc 7h 3c]KTG3: checks BIGYANG: bets $3TCaesar: raises $3 to $6KTG3: folds BIGYANG: calls $3 (hmm, notes say I've played with him 3 times and he's always busted out, did he catch some trips?)*** TURN *** [Kc 7h 3c] [5d]BIGYANG: bets $6 (let's see)TCaesar: raises $6 to $12BIGYANG: calls $6 (uh oh)*** RIVER *** [Kc 7h 3c 5d] [Kh]BIGYANG: checks TCaesar: bets $6BIGYANG: calls $6*** SHOW DOWN ***TCaesar: shows [Kd Qh] (three of a kind, Kings)BIGYANG: shows [Ac Ad] (two pair, Aces and Kings)TCaesar collected $84 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $87 | Rake $3 Board [Kc 7h 3c 5d Kh]Now I know why he busted out every time calling 2 cold with KQo. should I have put more aggression by reraising earlier? Oh well...6th hand from BB..*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BIGYANG [Kd Qd]oscar: folds TCaesar: folds Minn Slims: folds ekanes01: folds Lopaka: folds occlaud: folds copyright83: raises $3 to $6 (SB tring to steal antes?)BIGYANG: calls $3*** FLOP *** [3c 6c Qh] (sweet, top pair and K kicker)copyright83: bets $3BIGYANG: raises $3 to $6copyright83: raises $3 to $9 (??)BIGYANG: calls $3*** TURN *** [3c 6c Qh] [6d]KTG3 leaves the tablecopyright83: bets $6BIGYANG: calls $6 ( call down due to aggresion, but figure I'm still good right?)*** RIVER *** [3c 6c Qh 6d] [5s]davidmmoney is sitting outcopyright83: bets $6BIGYANG: calls $6*** SHOW DOWN ***copyright83: shows [6h Qc] (a full house, Sixes full of Queens)BIGYANG: mucks hand copyright83 collected $52 from potOf course not the blind weavel flopped 2 pair, then a boat, nuts eh? Do you lay down that hand?So 6 hands in I'm down $100 and over the next 20 hands much of the same stuff and I'm down $200 so I moved down to $1/2 and probably tilting I lost $50 over an hour on suckouts and bad beats which is why I hate that limit. So what do I do? Of course go back to 3/6 to get it back and after a short winning session, dropped another $100.So now my stack is ruined, I'm not totally bummed out since I've been down before and dang near predidicted it. Heck you all told me! So I'm committed to moving down and starting over and staying in the guidelines. Wish I had listened. Lesson to all those making fun of smash for playing micro limits and managing a bankroll. There are reasons for it!

[justblaze 0]

just a quick thought (dont take it as a personal attack):in the two hands you posted, i can see about 4 glaring mistakes. That is the great thing about holdem, it allows just about anyone to win for short periods of time, while always allowing the skilled players to get the money in the end. You need to seriously evaluate your game if you plan on using poker as a viable source of income.

[Dr_Shakes 0]

Hey Blaze,What were the glaring mistakes? I think one was calling so many reraises with just a flush draw. How about the others?Thanks

[justblaze 0]

Hey Blaze,What were the glaring mistakes?  I think one was calling so many reraises with just a flush draw.  How about the others?Thanks

well off the top of my head, limping in to a pot with no callers with A2s, is one. then calling the 6 on the flop (although you kind of got sucked into it due to your crappy position, which highlights the problems you can get into playing A2s from EP in a small pot). In the second hand, why did you slow down on the flop? you HAVE to 3 bet that, to find out if hes got KK. Then, once you've slowed down, you came out betting again on the turn? im just not seeing the logic there. Also, and this one of the hardest things to do in limit holdem, youve got to fold AA on the end. of course, this would have been a lot easier to do if you'd 3 bet the flop, and been able to determine based on that that villain was on a decent king. again, not a personal attack, just some things that immediately caught my eye reading the HH.

[MilesZS 0]

probably another would be calling the SB down with only top pair on a paired board. (When you held KQ). It sucks when you look at a board and realize you some fool picked up a trips with something/six in his hand, but you gotta be able to fold top pair when the board pairs and your opponent is betting into you. In fact, he almost had to be on at least 2 pair when he raised after the flop. You might have the same problem I have from time to time. If I'm playing at a limit due to bankroll constraints I may have the tendency to think "I'm better than these guys." Psychologically that can induce you to make calls that you wouldn't make if you were really thinking about what you're doing. I'm currently messing around in the micro-limit NL games on PStars. It's really hard to convince myself everyone is near the same skill level. haha

[Hardnut 0]

Its funny that you should mention 100BB downswings.I had one 4 hours ago!!Playing at the 2/4 table (Which am playing above my bankrol, yes i know its wrong)I had a few really bad beats so i decided to play some computer games for a while.Just got back most of my money, still $30 down from where i started today and $90 down from my peak.I will be moving down tonight!I am getting used to the swings now :wink: :? I never had much luck at the .50/$1 tables but at the 1/2 -2/4 i feel alot more comfortable.P.S What should you winning showdown statistics be? - Mine averages between 64-72 %Sorry to take this off topic.EDIT:: All back to normal know, i may cash out and just leave a $100 in my account and build it up again.

[Randy Reed 0]

I actually agree with the critique and can't really explain. On the A2s hand the other players are prone to try to bet you out of pots, the winner was on a flush/straight draw and if the diamond had come it would have been a huge pot on my first hand. On the AA, I've played with Ceaser before and my notes said he's busted out every time, and I've seen him call down with dumb stuff, but for some reason I was thinking he might have flopped trips with the 7 or 3, but was kicking myself when I didn't 3 bet wich is why I came to my senses and bet the turn and then got killed by river.And yeah, should have figured he hit something on the KQ hand, I was reeling a little and should have laid it down.Thanks for the comments though.